DiscoverGold
4 hours ago
Gold Support Holds but It May Not Last
By: Bruce Powers | July 26, 2024
• Gold remains between $2,356 and $2,391; a break below $2,353 suggests bearish continuation towards $2,332 and beyond.
Gold bounced on Friday following a new retracement low of 2,353 that was reached yesterday. Today’s activity is contained within yesterday’s range and sandwiched between resistance around 20-Day MA and support around the 50-Day MA. The high of 2,391 and today’s low of 2,356 provides near-term support and resistance. Support around the 50-Day MA at 2,360 has been tested as support both today and yesterday.
Downward Pressure Could Take Gold Lower
If a rally above today’s high follows, then there is a possibility that the retracement may be complete. However, the more likely scenario is a continuation of the retracement to test lower price levels. Gold fell below the 20-Day MA yesterday and it tested it as resistance today. This is generally bearish behavior when occurring within a downtrend. Therefore, a drop below this week’s low of 2,353 indicates a likely bearish continuation. The next lower targets look to be around 2,332 and lower price zones could also be reached.
Support Near Bottom of Consolidation Range Begins at 2,305
Further down near the bottom of the current consolidation zone is the next lower support area from around 2,305 to 2,298. It starts with the completion of a falling ABCD pattern extended by the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio. There is also the lower boundary line of a consolidation range plus the 50% retracement at 2,298. The consolidation pattern takes the form of a rising parallel trend channel.
This is a potentially bearish pattern but only if there is a breakdown from the formation. That would happen on a decline below the June 10 swing low of 2,294. This doesn’t mean that a breakdown will occur, but it is a possibility.
Rally Above 20-Day MA Needed for Signs of Strength
Of course, support may be seen at or above the lower support zone followed by a bullish reversal. Also, the 50-Day MA may continue to act as support leading to an upside move. A rally above the 20-Day MA would provide a sign of strength, which would confirm on a daily close above it. Yesterday’s high of 2,401 would then provide the next upside pivot level.
Correction Too Short to Complete
There have been two prior corrections in gold since the April 12 swing high of 2,431. Each lasted two or three weeks following the swing high week. The current correction in gold is about to complete its first week down from the swing high week. This means that there is likely at least one more week to go before the correction bottoms, leaving time for gold to test lower price levels.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
8 hours ago
Gold Continues to Look Strong Despite Falling
By: Christopher Lewis | July 26, 2024
• The gold market has been a bit noisy over the last few days, as the weekly charts show that perhaps we are trying to find out whether or not there is any real momentum underneath.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Gold markets initially took off to the upside during the trading week, and then plunged as we continue to see a lot of noisy and erratic behavior in financial markets overall. With this being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where the market participants continue to look at the $2,400 level as important, and I do think we are going to try to get there given enough time. Once we break above there, then we could go looking to the $2,500 level over the longer term. The market has been very noisy over the last couple of weeks, and at this point I have to assume more of the same nonsensical chop will continue to be what we’re looking at.
Short term dips should continue to be buying opportunities because quite frankly, there are plenty of geopolitical concerns out there that could continue to keep the gold market somewhat attractive. Furthermore, if interest rates continue to drop, and they most certainly did during the day on Friday, it should continue to benefit gold as well. Watch those bonds and they start to get picked up.
It’s possible the gold could as well. Either way, I don’t have any interest in shorting this market. It’s far too strong, and it’s really not until we break down below the $2,300 level that I even start to question the overall momentum as well. I like gold, but I realize that this situation is one that asks for low leverage, and perhaps a bit of caution in this trading environment.
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DiscoverGold
1 day ago
Gold Drops Below Key Levels, Targets Lower Prices
By: Bruce Powers | July 25, 2024
• Gold's decline continues, breaking key levels and targeting 2,332, with potential further downside if support zones fail.
Gold continued to retrace its prior advance on Thursday, as it fell to a new retracement low of 2,353. It continues to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing. The decline today dropped gold below the 20-Day MA, through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,355, and below the 50-Day MA. It is on track to end the day below each of those price levels thereby indicating lower prices may be in the works before the retracement is complete.
Next Lower Target is 2,332
The next lower target for gold is around 2,332. That is where a descending ABCD pattern completes, and the two legs of the pattern are equal as far as the depreciation of price. Given today’s decline, this target has a good chance of being reached. Certainly, if today’s low is broken during Friday’s trading session, the 2,332 becomes a likely next target. There is also a potential support zone lower down from around 2,305 to 2,298.
That price zone is derived from a couple Fibonacci levels, including the 50% retracement at 2,298, and a trendline that goes across the bottom of the recent three-month consolidation pattern. However, be aware that the monthly low for July was 2,318. If the 2,332-support level does not stop the decline, the monthly level may be broken to the downside.
Lower Boundary of Channel Likely to be Tested
Caution is warranted if the lower price zone is reached, as it is a three-point line. Therefore, if it fails to hold as support gold could accelerate to the downside. Also, the overall top pattern in gold is a rising parallel channel. Both the top and lower boundary lines have three points thereby solidifying the pattern. In general, a rising parallel channel can trigger a bearish signal. That would happen on a decline below the 2,294-swing low from June 26 as it is part of the lower boundary price structure of the channel.
Breakout Above 2,389 Needed for Signs of Strength
Today’s low found support around the 50-Day MA and a top trend channel line. If support continues to hold and leads to a bounce, areas to watch for resistance include the 20-Day MA and previous 50% retracement level around 2,389. If gold can rally above there it has a chance to breakout above today’s high. If that happens the above bearish scenario may start to change.
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DiscoverGold
1 day ago
Here’s Why Gold Is A ‘Massive Buying Opportunity’ Right Now
By: Phil Carr | July 25, 2024
• After an explosive start to July, that saw Gold hit yet another all-time record high of $2,483 an ounce – prices have pulled back as trader’s bank windfall profits to offset losses in other asset classes such as Equities.
Equity Markets Plummet as JP Morgan Warns of Bigger Correction Ahead
This week, U.S Equity Indices recorded their worst day since October 2022 after lacklustre results from index heavyweights Alphabet and Tesla unleashed a cascading sell-off across the entire technology sector.
According to JP Morgan, the $1 trillion selloff in Equities this week could be the start of a bigger correction ahead – amid glaring evidence of market froth and many big tech stocks still trading at higher-than-average valuations.
In a note to clients, JP Morgan advised staying defensive, with the Equities backdrop looking “Problematic”. The banks analysts closed the note by reissuing their call to “Sell Stocks and Buy Gold”.
While the fundamental picture looks increasingly volatile and uncertain for Equities – on the flipside the fundamental backdrop continues to remain ultra-bullish for Gold due an ever-growing number of macro and geopolitical tailwinds that are currently unfolding.
These include; persistent geopolitical tensions, strong central bank purchases, growing demand from China as a hedge against economic instability in the world’s second-largest economy, along with the high-stakes U.S presidential election.
Gold Set for ‘New Super Bull’ Run as Traders Could Bet on Trump Victory
Traders are already starting to price in a Donald Trump victory in November – which could spur a “new super bull” in Gold off the back of a multitude of factors including – tariffs of 60% or higher on foreign goods, a surge in infrastructure spending and tighter sanctions on Iranian oil – all of which could reignite global inflation.
During Donald Trump’s previous presidency – Gold price rose substantially, soaring from $1,200 an ounce when he took office in January 2017 to over $1,900 an ounce in his final month, which was January 2021.
Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. The possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House will also inevitably mark the return of the famous “Trump Trade”.
And that’s unquestionably ultra-bullish for Gold.
Analysts See Gold Pullback as Massive Buying Opportunity, Predict 2024 to be ‘Year of the Metals’
To quote analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence – “This is the pullback so many traders who missed out on the first leg of the current Supercycle in Gold have been waiting for”.
The analysts went on to doubling down on their view that “2024 Is The Year of The Metals and any substantial pullbacks should be viewed as massive buying opportunities because Gold prices won’t stay this low for long”.
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DiscoverGold
1 day ago
Gold Continues to See Downward Pressures
By: Christopher Lewis | July 25, 2024
• The gold market is trying to reach towards a lot of support below, but at this point in time, we will have to be very careful. This is a market that I am watching closely, due to the fact that I believe it is about to offer a lot of value.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market fell rather hard during the early hours on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of basically, panic in the financial world. Ultimately, this is a market that I think does find buyers underneath, and it’s probably worth noting that we are just above the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to. So ultimately, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that may or may not bounce.
We also have an uptrend line that sits just below there. So, I think the downside at this point is probably somewhat limited. In fact, when you look at the chart going back to at least March, you can almost make out a bit of a channel and we are getting fairly close to the bottom of it. So, because of this, I think you’ve got a situation where traders may have dumped gold to quite frankly pay the losses back in other markets.
It’s been a very bad couple of days, but really nothing’s changed. And that’s probably the one thing that traders need to keep in mind. I do think that given enough time, we will probably bounce back towards the $2,400 level and if we can recapture that gold really could start to take off again. On the other hand, if we break down below the uptrend line, then it’s possible that we could drop down to the $2,300 level where there is a massive amount of support. But right now, I think we are more likely to see a bounce. Do not try to anticipate it though. Let the market show you that it’s recovering before putting money to work.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 days ago
Gold Faces Resistance, Risk of Deeper Pullback Looms
By: Bruce Powers | July 24, 2024
• Gold rallied to $2,432 but faced resistance, risking a pullback below $2,405, with key support at $2,384 and potential further declines.
Gold rallied earlier during Wednesday’s trading session but found resistance at the day’s high of 2,432. That led to a pullback that is at risk of breaking below the day’s low of 2,405, at the time of this writing. Not a convincing rally and it puts gold at risk to testing recent lows with the possibility of falling lower. The recent swing low shows support at 2,384, which successfully tested support of the 20-Day MA.
Weekly Bearish Signal
Last Friday gold fell sharply following a new record high of 2,484. It represented aggressive selling. Given today’s failure to hold the advance, a continuation of the current bearish retracement becomes more likely. Moreover, a bearish weekly signal triggered this week as gold fell below last week’s low of 2,394. A drop through 2,384 aligns with the bearish weekly breakdown and targets lower prices.
ABCD Pattern Targets 2,332
Looking at the prior two retracements in gold, each had formed a descending ABCD pattern prior to completing the retracement. Might the current retracement form the same pattern before a bullish reversal holds? Certainly, that would fit the pattern. Each of the prior two retracements occurred after gold reached a new record high. If the current retracement is not yet complete and leads to a drop below 2,384, gold will be well on its way to testing lower price levels.
Since there is a minor swing high potentially complete today, an ABCD pattern to the chart. It shows a lower potential target for gold at 2,332. If reached, it would put gold back below its 20-Day and 50-Day MAs. However, at that target gold would remain above support at recent lows of 2,294 and 2,277. Also, it is possible that another rally to test resistance above today’s high occurs before gold falls to a new retracement low. If that happens the C point of the ABCD pattern will be adjusted.
Larger Picture Monthly View Remains Bullish
A bullish reversal triggered in the monthly chart of gold this month. It is supportive of an eventual move into new record highs. The low of the month should be watched for signs of weakness as a drop below 2,318 will trigger a monthly bearish reversal. If gold stays above 2,318 it continues to have a chance to rally and challenge recent highs once the correction is complete.
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DiscoverGold
3 days ago
Gold Consolidates Above Key Levels, Bullish Reversal Possible
By: Bruce Powers | July 23, 2024
• Support holds for gold at 2,384, setting the stage for a potential retest of the 2,484-record high, contingent on a rally above 2,412.
Gold has found support around the 50% retracement with a low of 2,384 reached on Monday. Support is further indicated by the June 7 interim swing high of 2,388 and the 20-Day MA at 2,382. If support at this week’s low continues to hold gold is in position for a possible retest of last week’s new record high of 2,484. Monday completed a relatively narrow range day and today, Tuesday, is set to end with an inside day, representing consolidation.
Bull Reversal Above 2,412
A decisive rally above Monday’s high of 2,412 triggers a bullish reversal from key short-term support. Going forward the 20-Day MA will be in a good position to provide trend support as gold advances, if it is to do so. A slightly lower upside target is at 2,450, as it was resistance previously and stopped the advance of gold in May.
Lower Support Zone Anchored at 2,366
Alternatively, there are a couple lower price levels to watch for support if this week’s low of 2,384 is busted to the downside. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement completes at 2,366 and an internal uptrend line may be nearby, depending on when it is reached. There is also the 50-Day MA at 2,360. Notice that the prior two retracements took the form of descending ABCD patterns.
If the current retracement takes a similar form, then the BC leg of the pattern may be next. That would be a rally up into resistance. Subsequently, the CD portion of the pattern would drop gold below this week’s low. If this scenario unfolds, it should present a clearer picture as to when the correction is complete.
Weekly Bearish Pattern
Of concern is the weekly chart. Last week’s pattern was a shooting start bearish reversal. The week ended in a weak position, in the lower quarter of the week’s trading range. A bearish signal was triggered this week. However, whether the breakdown follows through or not should provide some clarity as to its reliability. The bearish weekly signal also gives weight to the scenario noted above where a rally follows today that eventually hits resistance and turns back down. That turndown then breaks below yesterday’s low to test lower potential support areas.
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DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Will Gold Keep Making Higher Record Highs?
By: Barchart | July 19, 2024
The most recent high in the COMEX gold futures market was in July 2024, when the precious metal rose to just below the $2,490 per ounce level. After a correction that took gold below $2,300 in May and June, the price was rose to a new high in July. In my Q2 precious metals report on Barchart, I wrote:
Gold settled Q2 at the $2,339.60 level. Gold was marginally higher at over the $2,380 level in July 2024, and the bullish path of least resistance remained firmly intact. Gold remains in a quarter-of-a-century bull market, and the odds favor higher highs over the coming months and years. Central banks have been buying gold, further validating its role in the global financial system.
The case for higher gold prices remains compelling during the second half of 2024. The Gold SPDR (GLD) is the most liquid gold ETF product.
Don’t fight the trend- A quarter-of-a-century of gains
Gold prices fell to a bottom at $252.50 on the nearby COMEX futures contract in 1999.
The long-term chart from the 1970s shows that gold’s bull market has made higher lows and higher highs over the past twenty-five years, reaching its latest $2,488.40 peak in July 2024. At the $2,405 level, the precious metal remains near the recent high.
The trend is always your best friend in markets, and gold’s path of least resistance remains higher as we move into the second half of 2024.
A BRICS currency is bullish for gold
U.S. sanctions on Russia and the bifurcation of the world’s nuclear powers have led the BRICS countries to seek alternatives to the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar.
Over the past years, central banks worldwide have been net buyers of gold, increasing their reserves. China and Russia have led the way in accumulating gold, but the official statistics likely underestimate their gold purchases. As the world’s leading gold producers, China and Russia have likely vacuumed in domestic gold output, pushing their reserves even higher. Since the Chinese and Russians consider strategic commodity and currency reserves state secrets and national security matters, their reserves have likely grown exponentially over the past years.
The BRICS countries are working to roll out a currency to challenge the U.S. dollar, euro, and other allied reserve currencies. A BRICS currency may have some gold backing, making it less of a fiat than the existing reserve foreign exchange instruments. The price is likely to increase as gold’s role in the international financial system grows.
Moreover, historically high debt levels in the U.S. and Europe may add further upside pressure to gold prices.
Falling interest rates support higher gold prices
Gold tends to rise in a falling interest rate environment. Meanwhile, gold’s ascent over the past years as U.S. short-term rates rose from zero in March 2022 to a midpoint of 5.375% is a testament to the metal’s underlying strength.
The latest U.S. jobs data showed June unemployment rose to 4.1%. While June CPI came in slightly lower than expected, June’s PPI data was somewhat hotter, balancing the consumer price index data. At his latest testimony before the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, Chairman Jerome Powell told legislators that the Fed’s next move will likely be a Fed Funds Rate cut. While the Fed needs further validation that inflation is heading towards its 2% target, the data over the past months justify an initial 25 basis point reduction in short-term interest rates.
As the Fed shifts from a hawkish to a more accommodative monetary policy stance, it will support a continuation of the quarter-of-a-century gold rally.
Bank of America’s $3,000 forecast could be conservative
Bank of America analysts forecast gold prices to rise to the $3,000 per ounce level over the next 12-18 months. The analysts wrote:
While the motivation of individual central banks for owning gold may vary, many reserve portfolios have one thing in common: the share of USD has been declining, while gold holdings have risen. The long-standing inverse relationship between gold and rates has become more tenuous already and, in our view, this is unlikely to change going forward.
BoA cited the rise in private bar and central bank hoarding to 49% of gold purchases in 2023 from 43% in 2022. The central banks bought 1,037 metric tons of gold in 2023, the second-highest year on record behind 2022’s 1,082 tons.
GLD is a liquid alternative to physical gold or futures
The most direct route for a gold investment is the physical market for bars and coins. In 2004, the Gold SPDR (GLD) became the first and most successful commodity ETF product. GLD’s fund summary states:
At $222.40 per share, GLD had over $66.687 billion in assets under management. GLD trades an average of nearly 5.8 million shares daily and charges a 0.40% management fee.
The most recent rally in the continuous COMEX gold futures contract took the price 37.5% higher from $1,809.40 in October 2023 to $2,488.40 in July 2024.
Over the same period, GLD rose 36.5%, moving from $168.30 to $229.65 per share. The ETF did an excellent job tracking gold prices, with slight underperformance due to its expense ratio.
The twenty-five-year bullish gold trend remains firmly intact as we head into the second half of 2024. The path of least resistance favors new all-time highs over the coming months as fundamental and technical factors present a compelling bullish case.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
5 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 20, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23991 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24884 intraday and is still trading above that high of 24067.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23961 and overhead resistance forming above at 24232. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 15th at 24884, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24884 to 23957. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 24884. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 24260 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 23341 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | July 20, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 285k, up 30.2k.
As expected, gold bugs staged a breakout this week but were unable to hang on to it. On Tuesday, gold broke out to a new intraday high of $2,475. The momentum continued Wednesday with another intraday high of $2,488 but only to then reverse lower. By Friday, the metal had given back 0.9 percent for the week to $2,399/ounce.
Prior to the breakout, gold essentially went sideways for three months. On April 12th, it hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. This was eclipsed on May 20th, as the yellow metal ticked $2,454 before once again coming under pressure. All along, bids showed up at $2,300, a breach of which will have shifted momentum to the bears.
Even now, this week’s action probably does not boost bulls’ confidence. A test of the 50-day at $2,369 probably lies ahead; if this is lost, $2,300 is a must-save for the bulls.
Non-commercials have been aggressively accumulating net longs in gold futures, and it does not take long for them to begin unwinding those.
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NYBob
7 days ago
Massive GOLD Revaluation Incoming, 'Sell at Your Own Peril': Andy Schectman - Commodity
Culture - VIDEO
https://youtu.be/unRNXsMTBhk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unRNXsMTBhk
$Pelangio Exploration Inc. is a Canada-based company, which acquires and explores land packages
on strategic gold belts in Ghana, West Africa and Canada.
In Ghana, the Company is exploring its two 100% owned camp-sized properties:
the 100 square kilometers (km2) $Manfo property, the site of seven near-surface gold discoveries, and
the 284 km2 $Obuasi property, located four kilometers (km) on strike and adjacent to AngloGold Ashanti’s
prolific high-grade Obuasi Mine, as well as its
$Dankran property located adjacent to its Obuasi property.
Its Canada projects include $Gowan Polymetallic, Dome West, Birch Lake, Grenfell, Kenogaming,
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The Gowan polymetallic project is a 4.3 km2 property located in Gowan Township, 27 km northeast
of the City of Timmins, Ontario and 16 km due east of Glencore’s Kidd Mine Site.
$Pelangio's Dome West property is located within the main Timmins camp approximately 800 meters west
of Newmont’s Dome super pit.
DD.... $PELANGIO EXPLORATION INC. - EXPLORATION IN A FEW OF THE WORLD'S RICHEST GOLD
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One of THE RICHEST GOLD MINES on the earth -
GLG STUDIOS GHANA -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8bV9rtfXrM
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Obuasi is a gold mining community[3] and town which is the capital of the Obuasi Municipal District in
the Ashanti Region of Ghana.[4] It lies in the southern part of the Obuasi Municipal, 39 miles (63 kilometres)
south-west of Ashanti capital city Kumasi.[4] Obuasi has a population of 175,043 people.[2]
Obuasi mining community has a mixture of the Ashanti people culture and the semi-island exclave Ashantiland.[4]
Obuasi is home to the Obuasi Gold Mine, one of the largest known gold deposits on Earth.[1][4]
The Gold Coast region was named after the large amount of gold mined historically at Obuasi and
the broader Ashanti Region.[4]
Economy
Main article: Economy of Ashanti
Obuasi is known for the Obuasi Gold Mine, one of the largest underground gold mines in the world.
Gold has been mined on the site since at least the seventeenth century.[1]
The Obuasi Gold Mine is now being refurbished after being placed under care and maintenance in 2014.
The mine was anticipated to reach full production in 2022,
with a mine life of more than 20 years.[5][needs update]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obuasi
DD.... $PELANGIO EXPLORATION INC. Corporate Presentation
https://pelangio.com/investors/presentations/
Pelangio Exploration Inc.: https://pelangio.com
$Gold To Hit $7000?! Central Banks Are Buying Up All The $Gold They Can!
Wall Street Silver
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Who is benefiting from Ghana Gold?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqR-svtt834
$Pelangio Exploration reports results from maiden RC drill program at Dankran Project Ghana
InvestmentPitch Media
7.31K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Jik0CXIo0g
$Pelangio Intersects 49.5 Metres Grading 1.18 g/t Gold at Nkansu -
Significant Intercepts in All Five Holes
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pelangio-intersects-49-5-metres-120000904.html
$Pelangio Exploration Inc., 7 Gold Discoveries in Ghana, CEO Clip Video
https://youtu.be/fcP-BHmZR-k
https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/34735/Pelangio-Exploration-Inc.-7-Gold-Discoveries-in-Ghana-CEO-Clip-Video
$Pelangio Exploration drills 1.8 g/t gold over 13 metres at Manfo, Ghana
https://resourceworld.com/pelangio-exploration-drills-1-8-g-t-gold-over-13-metres-at-manfo-ghana/
Pelangio Exploration: Multiple Early Stage Gold Exploration Projects in Canada and Ghana
Swiss Resource Capital AG
30.6K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcvTfY0QrOE
$Pelangio Exploration Inc. (PGXPF) - $GOLD Activities In Ghana And Canada - Ingrid Hibbard, CEO
Pelangio Exploration (TSXV:PX) Provides Update on Activities In Ghana And Canada
https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2023/09/06/pelangio-exploration-provides-update-on-activities-in-ghana-and-canada
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174399334
It’s here, it’s due, it has to happen, and the train is moving.
Get on board before u gotta chase it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/why-we-are-start-multi-year-gold-bull-market
Long Trend is UP for Gold and Gold stocks..
Gold's $9K will take us all by surprise! How Many Ounces Of Gold & Silver Are You HOLDING? -
Rule
The Market View
https://youtu.be/uBhMLt7b_pw
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Faces Bearish Retracement, Testing Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | July 19, 2024
• Gold continues bearish retracement, testing key support at 2,389 with potential further decline to 61.8% retracement at 2,366.
Gold continued its bearish retracement on Friday, falling to a low of 2,394 before finding minor support. It is well on its way to test support around the 50% retracement at 2,389. Notice that the 2,389-price area was where resistance was encountered at a minor swing high in early-June. It also stalled the recent ascent for several days in early-July before gold ran up to a new record high of 2,484 on Monday.
Downward Momentum Accelerates
Given the acceleration in the pullback from the new record high gold may continue to fall and test lower potential support levels if the 50% retracement area doesn’t hold. Lower down is the convergence of several indicators that have converged around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2,366.
Both the 20-Day MA (purple) and 50-Day MA (orange) are near the 61.8% retracement zone. Currently, the 20-Day line is marking potential support at 2,374 and the 50-Day line is at 2,358. There is also an internal uptrend line close by that should be watched as well.
New High Breakout Fails to Hold
A pullback following a new record high is not that surprising given that the rally that preceded the breakout began down around 2,294 in late-June. By the time gold broke out to a new record high it was further into the trend and bullish momentum could not be sustained. Now that the upside follow through has ended downward pressure in the price of gold has increased. The reversal from this week’s high sets up a bearish weekly candlestick pattern.
Weekly Bearish Shooting Star on Deck
On the weekly chart gold is about to end with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. It shows buyers in charge earlier in the week but by the end of the week, sellers were in charge. In other words, a failed breakout occurred, and sentiment has turned short-term bearish. Therefore, it may not be resolved quickly, and gold may need some time before it is ready to attempt a new record high again.
A decline below this week’s low of 2,394 will trigger a weekly bearish reversal. This is another reason why the lower price zone target is at greater risk of being reached. Nonetheless, the two prior corrections on a weekly basis lasted either two or three weeks.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Plunges in The Early Hours of Friday
By: Christopher Lewis | July 19, 2024
• The gold market plunged in the early hours of Friday, as the market participants seemingly jumped back into the US dollar. The $2400 level now becomes very important in the short-term, and it will be worth paying attention to.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market plunged quite drastically during the early hours on Friday, as it looks like we are hell bent on racing towards the $2,400 level. I find this interesting because I think that could be a good entry point. We’ll have to wait and see. What I want to see is the market test that area and then bounce and hold it. If it does, it makes a lot of sense. That was an area that was previously resistant to prices. The 50-day EMA is closer to the $2,350 level, but it is rising at a pretty sharp angle.
So, it does suggest that perhaps the market is going to continue to see value hunters. A lot of this will come down to the US dollar and what it’s doing, and it’s probably worth noting that the US dollar is strengthening, so that is causing a little bit of trouble for gold. Nonetheless, this is a market that has plenty of things going for it, not to mention geopolitical issues. And of course, central banks around the world are buyers of gold as well.
Interest rate cuts should help gold, at least in theory, so we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out. But I think any bounce at this point in time probably sends the market straight back up. So, I believe that the Friday candlestick is going to be very crucial in determining whether we buy it here or if we maybe let it come back into the previous consolidation before buying it.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Falls Further After Reaching New Record High
By: Bruce Powers | July 18, 2024
• After hitting a record high of $2,484, gold pulls back, heading towards test of key support levels before launching towards near-term upside target of $2,495.
Gold is attempting to retrace part of its recent advance following a new record high of 2,484 reached yesterday. Today, gold has pulled back further, dropping below Wednesday’s low of 2,451 to reach a low of 2,440 for the day. Also, today’s low is below the prior record high of 2,450. However, trading continues near the lows of the day and a new daily low could be reached by today’s close.
Initial Potential Support Levels
There are several initial price levels to watch for possible support to show up. The first is at the April 12 swing high of 2,431. A little lower is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,411, followed by the 50% retracement at 2,389. Somewhat more weight is given to the 2,389-price level as it is also a match with a prior interim swing high from June 7. A pullback to test that price zone as support may provide a nice setup for a bullish continuation. It is above both the 20- and 50-Day MAs, at 2,370 and 2,357, respectively. Also, it is above all the trendlines.
A Long-Term Target Reached at 2,480
This week’s new record high of 2,484 completed a key long-term target for gold from a large rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. The AB leg of the pattern began at the swing low of 1,160 in August 2018. It led to a rally into the August 2020 swing high of 2,013. A similar advance in price began from the September 2022 swing low of 1,615 and ended this week.
Once there is symmetry in price, a potential pivot level has been identified. It looks like that was the case here given the bearish reaction following Wednesday’s high of 2,484. Nonetheless, following the completion of a bearish retracement, gold is anticipated to continue to trend higher towards upside targets.
Recent Bearish Retracement Points to 2,495 Target
There is Fibonacci confluence area with several price levels identified around 2,487. A little further up from there is a relatively near-term target at 2,495. That price level will complete a 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline that began from the May 20 peak. A greater than 100% or 127.2% retracement completes at the 2,495-price level.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Reaches New High at 2,484, Faces Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | July 17, 2024
• After hitting a record 2,484, gold faces resistance with a potential bearish pattern, yet retains bullish outlook above key support levels.
Gold continued to advance to a new trend high of 2,484 on Wednesday before encountering resistance. Sellers took back control from that high and have set gold up with a potential bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Underlying strength remains however, as Wednesday is on track to complete a narrow range day near the highs of Tuesday’s new record high wide range breakout day. Strength indicated by the breakout was confirmed by Tuesday’s close above the previous record high of 2,450.
High Completes ABCD Pattern Begun in 2018
There are a couple things to notice about today’s new record high. First, a target zone was hit on today’s advance at 2,480. That is a long-term target from a large ascending ABCD pattern that began from the August 2018 swing low. It began the AB leg of the advance. The second leg up, the CD portion, began from the September 2022 swing low. A potential pivot price is indicated once the price change in the second leg up matches the first. That is what is being seen so far.
It is confirmed by a short-term trendline connecting swing highs beginning with April 12. The high today was essentially a match with potential resistance indicated by the line. The ABCD pattern target is an initial target from the pattern. As gold continues to rise, extended targets will play a role. A 127.2% extended target for the ABCD is at 2,715.
Lower Support Starts with 2,411
If the bearish retracement from Wednesday’s high continues, it is triggered on a decline below today’s low of 2,451. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement completes at 2,411, while this week’s low is at 2,401. Either marks an area of potential interest from buyers. Nevertheless, the 50% retracement level of 2,389 is confirmed by a prior interim swing high from early-June.
The 50-Day MA is a key trend support zone for gold. It is at 2,366 currently. Therefore, the bullish outlook is retained in gold if it stays above the 50-Day MA. Notice that recently the purple 20-Day MA crossed above the 50-Day line, proving another sign of strength for the precious metal.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Hits New Record High Amid Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | July 16, 2024
• Following a bullish crossover, gold hit a new record high of 2,467, with higher targets now in focus.
Gold breaks out to a new record high following a bullish crossover of the 20-Day MA above the 50-Day MA yesterday. The previous record high was 2,450, which was reached on May 20. Today, Tuesday, gold has reached a new record high of 2,467, at the time of this writing, and it continues to trade near the highs of the day.
New Record High of 2,467
An initial new high target for gold at 2,462 was already exceeded today, putting higher targets in scope. That pivot was a 161.8% extended retracement of the decline that begun from the August 2011 swing high. It still may act as an area of resistance as the high today is not much beyond the 2,462-price level. Watch to see where today’s close completes. Above 2,462 is more likely to lead quickly to an advance to higher price targets, rather than a daily close below that price level.
Higher Targets Start with 2,480
There are several higher targets shown on the chart from around 2,480 to 2,494. The lower price level for the range is a long-term target for a large rising ABCD pattern. It began from the July 2018 swing low of 1,160. An AB leg for the pattern ended at 2,031 in August 2020, while the beginning of the CD leg was at 1,615 in September 2022.
At the top of the price range is 2,494. That price level completes a 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline from the 2,450-trend high. There are two other price levels within the identified price range as well, giving further credence to the price range. Arguably, since the 127.2% target is based on a near-term pattern, it has a good chance of being reached within the current expansion.
Monthly Bullish Signal Supports Higher Prices
Higher prices are supported by recent price action. A monthly bull signal in gold was triggered earlier this month on a rise above June’s high of 2,388. Given that July is halfway complete, gold has a chance to end the month strong, in the upper third of the month’s price range. Also, a weekly bullish continuation signal triggered this week and gold is on track to end the week strong, in the upper third of the week’s trading range. If it does so, it has a good chance of seeing strong upward momentum heading into next week.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Continues to Look Very Strong
By: Christopher Lewis | July 16, 2024
• Gold markets continue to look very strong as we are testing a major recent high. Ultimately, we are on the precipice of breaking out one way or the other, either through the mass of bullish pressure, or another pullback that eventually gets bought back into.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market has really taken off again in the early hours on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of upward momentum with the possibility of breaking above the $2,450 level. If we can break above that level, then it will be a continuation of the overall bullish pressure that we have seen for some time. And I do think it’s probably only a matter of time before that happens. The question, of course, is whether or not we get a short term pullback. In the meantime, we did get that pullback somewhat on Monday.
So maybe Tuesday is just a continuation and eventual breakout. Clearly, we are in a major uptrend and at the very top of the consolidation area that’s been going on since roughly the beginning of April. There are plenty of geopolitical concerns out there that could continue to push gold higher. And then of course, there are ideas that the central banks, even the Federal Reserve might be out there looking to cut rates at the end of the year.
So, if that’s going to be the case, that could also help. the gold market going forward. After all, this is a market that is highly interest rate sensitive. So that obviously is a major factor. Pullbacks at this point in time should the plenty of support right around the $2,400 level based on psychological support as it was psychological resistance. And, of course, there are probably quite a few options barriers. Either way, I think that we are either going to break out or we are going to remain a buy on the debt market.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Is Ready To Test New Highs
By: Vladimir Zernov | July 15, 2024
Key Points:
• China's central bank did not buy gold in June.
• Physically-backed gold ETFs enjoyed inflows for the second month in a row in June.
• Central banks believe that gold's share in reserves would grow in the next five years.
Gold has recently managed to settle above the $2400 level and is moving towards the $2450 level. Interestingly, the usual suspect – China’s central bank – did not buy gold for the second month in a row. At the end of June, China held 72.8 million ounces of gold.
While the country’s central bank was waiting for a pullback, other investors have used the opportunity to buy gold at lower prices, pushing gold back above the $2400 level.
World Gold Council data shows that physically-backed gold ETFs enjoyed monthly inflows of $1.4 billion in June. Year-to-date, such ETFs lost $6.7 billion as investors were moving money out of gold ETFs at the start of the year.
Data shows that speculative investors have started to buy gold ETFs at a time when the more conservative China’s central bank stopped its purchases due to high prices.
At this point, the key question is whether China’s central bank will start buying again in the upcoming months. The central bank missed the opportunity to purchase gold near the $2300 level, so it may be forced to buy more gold at higher prices in order to diversify its reserves amid rising tensions in U.S. – China relations.
A recent central bank survey published by World Gold Council shows that the percentage of central banks that believe that dollar’s share of total reserves would be ‘significantly lower’ five years from now has increased from 5% in 2023 to 13% in 2024.
As many as 66% of respondents believe that the share of gold in total reserves would be ‘moderately higher’ five years from now.
Most likely, speculative investors would like to benefit from this long-term trend, so inflows into gold ETFs would continue to grow. Meanwhile, the upcoming beginning of the Fed rate cut cycle should provide additional support to gold markets and push gold above the $2500 level.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Show Strength
By: Christopher Lewis | July 15, 2024
• The gold market has shown itself to be strong again in the early hours of Monday, as traders continue to think about the geopolitical issues, and of course the idea that central banks are starting to cut rates.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday, but it does look like the $2,400 level is going to continue to offer a bit of psychological support, if nothing else. You can see that we initially pulled back a bit, only to turn around and show signs of life. The $2,450 level above is more likely than not going to be a little bit of a short term resistance barrier. And of course, people will be paying close attention to it. If we can break above that level, then it’s likely that we will get to the $2,500 level.
Any move below 2400 would probably just be more of the same. It would be an indictment on the attempted breakout, and it would suggest that we are just simply going to head right back into the previous consolidation. This is a real possibility, but we’ll have to see how that plays out. For me, the $2,300 region is a major support level that we will have to pay close attention to what’s going on when we get down to that area on any selloff.
That being said, it certainly looks like we have a lot of resiliency here. And I do think that this is a market that suggests that it’s probably only a matter of time before we do breakout, to the upside. If we get falling rates, that will help gold. But we also have geopolitical tensions, which most certainly helps gold. And then of course, we just have the overall trend that’s been bullish for several months now.
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2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 13, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 24207 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24304 intraday and is still trading above that high of 24067.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 24015.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 24304, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24304 to 23560. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 8th reaching 24304 has exceeded the previous high of 23826 made back during the week of June 17th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | July 13, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 254.8k, up 13.2k.
Gold is itching to break out. This week, it rose one percent to $2,421/ounce.
The metal has essentially gone sideways the past three months. On April 12th, gold hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. On May 20th, a new high was created as the yellow metal ticked $2,454. All along, bids showed up at $2,300.
Amidst this, non-commercials are the most net long gold futures since March 2022.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Bullish Momentum Retained
By: Bruce Powers | July 12, 2024
• Gold forms a bullish doji hammer inside day, signaling potential breakout above 2,425 with higher targets at 2,462 and 2,480.
Gold is on track to complete bullish doji hammer inside day today with a high of 2,418 at the time of this writing. Trading continues near the highs of the day heading towards Friday’s close. Today’s price action is constructive for the advance as it follows a strong candle yesterday with a close near the high of the day. The 20-Day MA is about to confirm strength as it has converged with the 50-Day MA and is about to cross above it. In addition, both moving averages have converged with a trendline, and they are about to cross above it. Each would provide an additional sign of improving demand.
Potential for Bull Breakout of Inside Day
The inside day sets up a potential upside breakout on a rally above today’s high. Thursday’s high was around 2,425 and will be the next key level as a breakout above it triggers a continuation of the rising trend. The hammer characteristics of the inside day show continued bullish demand. Moreover, today’s price action is largely in the upper half of yesterday’s trading range. That shows strength relative to Thursday’s price range. In addition, Thursday’s closing price of 2,415 is the third highest daily close for gold on record, another sign of strength.
Above 2,425 Signals Trend Continuation
A sustained breakout above this week’s high of 2,425 triggers a continuation of the bull trend. Gold must then rise above the 2,431-swing high from April 12. It then heads towards the record high of 2,450. Given the variety of bullish indications lately, it has a good chance of breaking above 2,431.
Eventual New High Targets of 2,462 and 2,480
The initial two new high price targets are at 2,462 and 2,480. A long-term extended 161.8% retracement target from the decline off the August 2011 high identifies the first price level. That price level is followed by the completion of a long-term rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. Those price levels are followed by a Fibonacci confluence zone around 2,489. That is where two or more Fibonacci levels congregate.
Regardless of the above bullish scenario, sometimes markets don’t make it so easy. If that happens with gold, we may see resistance leading to a retracement prior to a breakout to new record highs. Just an alternative scenario to be aware of in case it occurs.
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2 weeks ago
Citi Predicts $3,000 Gold by 2025
By: Karl Montevirgen | July 12, 2024
• What the Fed does in the coming months could dramatically affect the direction of gold prices
• While seasonality suggests a shift from slump to strong performance for gold, it will likely coincide with the Fed's rate decisions in the coming months
• Goldman Sachs projects gold to hit $2,700 by the end of 2024; Citi projects $3,000 by 2025
Will Fed Chief Jay Powell rouse King Midas from his summer slumber? Gold investors are eager to have that question answered. The Fed's response will determine whether investors press pause or pull the trigger.
Thursday's CPI data seemed favorable enough. Consumer prices are easing, raising Wall Street's hopes for a Fed rate cut. Friday's PPI report, however, came out higher than expected. With inflation easing on the consumer end but rising stubbornly on the manufacturing end, how will the Fed respond in the coming months?
Central Banks Can Push Gold to Upwards of $3,000 by 2025
Gold price targets have been everywhere, largely depending on FOMC projections. But Citi's latest prediction is bold and bright for gold bulls. They see central bank gold demand driving prices to $3,000 by 2025, while Goldman Sachs revised its target for 2024 upward to $2,700.
The rationale? Analysts think central banks will snap up 1,100 tons of gold in 2024, with a bullish scenario hitting 1,250 tons. This demand has been steady at 28–30% of gold mine production since 2022, potentially climbing to 35% due to trade wars and worries about U.S. fiscal policies.
Gold: A 20-Year Lookback
Let's step back and take a wide-angle view ($GOLD monthly chart) of gold's position relative to its 20-year history.
CHART 1. 20-YEAR MONTHLY CHART OF GOLD. This chart might answer the raging debate about whether gold is a good investment. What do you think?
Gold see-sawed in a trading range from 2013 to 2019. After a breakout, it hit an all-time high and then saw three more years of wide sideways movement before 2024. In May, gold hit its highest price ever: $2,450.05 an ounce.mThe long-term trend? Net bullish. It's a reality check when you see that gold's price rise mirrors the drop in your money's purchasing power.
Momentum-wise, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tells you that buying pressure is on an upswing which, in the past, coincided with every major rally. The big question now: will this anticipated rally keep going?
$GOLD vs GLD — Big Players vs. the Retail Crowd
For retail investors, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is the proxy for gold futures. Looking at StockCharts' correlation indicator, gold futures ($GOLD) and GLD are both moving in lockstep based on their 0.98 to 1.0 (meaning 98% to 100%) correlation, as you can see below:
CHART 2. CORRELATION BETWEEN GOLD FUTURES AND SPDR GOLD SHARES ETF. Note that the ETF is also gold-backed, making it a strong proxy for the metal itself.
But when you look at the buying and selling pressure as represented by the CMF, you get a different picture.
CHART 3. CHART OF GOLD FUTURES AND GLD WITH DIFFERING CMF READINGS. While gold futures show steady buying pressure, the ETF has shown outflows.
While gold futures and bullion are the domain of Institutional investors and commercial consumers (think manufacturers, hedgers, etc.), the retail crowd trades GLD. Are the pros gearing up for a move that retail investors might miss?
Add the Following Two Charts to Your StockCharts ChartLists
The $GOLD chart shows how gold futures prices stack up against the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD). The ETF is meant to track the futures, but look closely. If the thesis holds, you might be able to spot the difference between institutional vs. retail buying or selling—potentially signaling a market opportunity.
GLD's Daily Price Action
GLD gives a mixed picture.
CHART 4. DAILY CHART OF GLD. Bullish and bearish indications, but with clear support levels.
The CMF and the Ichimoku Cloud are both leaning bearish. The CMF shows dwindling momentum (dipping below the zero line) while GLD seemingly struggles to take out its record high of $225.66. The cloud turned red, giving the impression that once support is broken, it could transform into a thickening resistance range.
On the bullish side, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) shows both signal line and centerline crossovers, indicating a potential bullish scenario. Plus, the uptrend in both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (SMAs) are intact and steadily rising. Both can provide support.
However, GLD could continue to drift downward, breaking below the 100-day SMA and the bottom cloud level—which it can do, given that gold tends to perform poorly in the summer months. If that happens, where else can you find strategic buying points (assuming that gold will rise to higher levels toward the end of the year)?
Plotting Fibonacci Retracement levels tells you that 38.2% ($209.60), and the range between 50% ($204.70) and 61.8% (199.75) might serve as strategic buy zones for accumulating GLD shares. After all, the context we're facing is a dreadful seasonal slump in August and September and a sharp rebound in the last quarter of the year, as StockCharts' five-year seasonality chart below illustrates.
CHART 5. FIVE-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Why five years? Because the monetary and geopolitical scenario (e.g., inflation and global de-dollarization) of recent years changes the context of the dollar and gold.
But the real game-changer? The Fed's upcoming decisions on interest rates. That's the trigger you should be watching closely.
Closing Bell
Gold's prospects are a mixed bag of bullish and bearish signals, heavily influenced by the Fed's next moves on interest rates. While institutional players and central banks appear to be buying, retail investors are probably missing some cues. Seasonality-wise, gold's in a summer slump. However, things can change as early as the end of July, when the FOMC meets to deliver its rate decision. If not, things could also change very rapidly in the coming months. Plus, gold tends to perform well in the last quarter of the year.
Keep an eye on the strategic buy zones highlighted above. And remember: the real game-changer lies in the Fed's upcoming decisions.
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2 weeks ago
HSBC's new gold prices forecast calls for a 12% drop in 2025
By: Investing.com | July 12, 2024
NEW YORK(July 12) Gold prices surged to a record high in mid-May, driven by robust safe haven and hedge fund purchases.
This rally has been prompted by expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as well as increasing economic uncertainty. Furthermore, rising fiscal deficits have spurred significant gold purchases, predominantly in the over-the-counter (OTC) market.
The jump to record highs came despite positive real rates, HSBC's precious metals analysts said.
"Gold is historically sensitiv
Looking further ahead, HSBC’s long-term forecast for the bullion now sits at $2,000/oz, up from the previous $1,700/oz.
In terms of year-end gold price projections, the bank said its 2024 and 2025 forecasts are $2,210/oz and $2,075/oz, respectively.
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e to real rates, and while there has been a notable disconnect in this relationship, we expect real rates to weigh on gold towards the end of 2024 and 2025,” they wrote.
Although exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to liquidate, strong purchases in the OTC market and by real money investors have counterbalanced this trend. Net long positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) remain high, but analysts suggest they may not increase significantly from current levels.
"Market sentiment is clearly bullish, and while the near-term upward trajectory shows no signs of slacking, we think prices are progressively overstretched," they noted.
Within this, HSBC has raised its average price forecasts for gold due to near-term strength, however, the bank expects a potential decline in prices by Q4 this year or into 2025.
Specifically, analysts have lifted its average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,160/oz to $2,305/oz. Yet, their 2025 estimates are now lowered from $2,105/oz to $1,980/oz, implying a 12% drop from current levels.
Analysts expect gold prices to rebound in 2026, raising their average price projection for that year from $1,880/oz to $2,025/oz.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Rally Eyes Record High After Bullish Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 11, 2024
• Gold surged to 2,425 today, maintaining bullish momentum. A strong close could push prices towards the 2,450-record high, with the next potential resistance at 2,431.
Gold rallied today and triggered an extension of the rising trend to reach a high of 2,425. Momentum has since died down intraday, but buyers remain in control with trading continuing near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. The rally completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,415. Although there are signs of resistance around the 79.6% level the pullback has been mild so far.
If gold can close strong today, in the upper quarter of the day’s trading range, it has a chance to continue to rally into the end of this week. Also, watch the relative closing price. There has been only one day that gold closed above today’s high and that was on May 20, the day gold hit its current record high of 2,450. A strong close today sets the stage for gold to recapture the record high and keep rising.
Strong Upward Momentum May Challenge Record High
The next higher potential resistance area is around the April 12 swing high at 2,431. There is also an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level at the same price level adding to its potential short-term significance. Since the bull breakout last week gold has maintained strength above prior resistance areas defined by the downtrend line, top trend channel line and the 50-Day MA (orange).
Today’s rally further confirms improving demand in the precious metal. The question is, can upward momentum be sustained enough to take gold above the 2,450-record high or will it first encounter resistance that leads to a retracement or consolidation phase first.
20-Day MA Bull Crossover in Process
Further confirming strength of the uptrend will be the 20-Day MA (purple). It is more sensitive to changes in price since it uses a shorter period to calculate, and it is about to cross back above the 50-Day line since being below it from June 17. This will be another piece of evidence indicating that strength in demand is improving. Moreover, the 20-Day and 50-Day lines have come together more recently as gold consolidated and volatility died now. Now that a bullish breakout is in play the bull trend should be ready to reassert itself. This will increase the distance between the two moving averages as momentum improves and the uptrend extends.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Find Buyers After CPI
By: Christopher Lewis | July 11, 2024
• The Consumer Price Index came out weaker than anticipated on Thursday, as traders continue to see a lot of questions asked about the Federal Reserve, and what they will be doing in the future. This is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy overall.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market went straight up in the air after the consumer price index numbers in the United States came out weaker than anticipated, but in doing so, it does suggest that we are going to continue to be very noisy but continue to focus on the idea of whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut rates. If, in fact, they will, then that should help gold over the longer term.
On the other hand, if they remain tight, then it’s possible that the Federal Reserve will squash gold. I think at this point in time, though, the market has already made up its mind, and it’s probably only a matter of time before we truly see gold take off to the upside. Clearly, we have a lot of momentum, and the $2,300 level underneath has been like a brick wall.
It’s probably worth noting that the $2,400 level has been very difficult to overcome as well. So with all of that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where traders continue to press the resistance above, and I think short term pullbacks will end up being buying opportunities given enough time. Ultimately, this is a market that not only breaks higher, but I think eventually breaks above the $2,450 level to go looking to the $2,500 level. But we don’t necessarily know that it’s going to happen right now. With this, I remain bullish, but I’m looking for short term pullbacks to get involved.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Consolidates, Poised for Potential Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 10, 2024
• Gold’s consolidation above the 50-Day MA indicates bullish sentiment, with key pivots and long-term targets suggesting potential for further gains.
Gold continued to consolidate on Wednesday with a minor sign of strength as it rose above Tuesday’s high of 2,371. Nevertheless, it remains within a relatively tight trading range between resistance of 2,393 and support around 2,349. Until there is a decisive move outside of that range, trading will remain choppy.
Bullish sentiment remains dominant however as the consolidation pattern is developing above the 50-Day MA and other lines that recently had been areas of resistance. This reflects the improving underlying strength in demand for gold.
May End with an Inside Weed
Since the Wednesday trading session is almost over, it looks like gold could finish this week with an inside week. If so, it would set up a potential bullish breakout of an inside week for next week. Of course, volatility following the release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) tomorrow could trigger a breakout of the current price range. If bullish signs continue thereafter then gold has a chance to keep rising. Although there hasn’t yet been bullish follow through, last week gold closed at 2,393,
above the interim daily swing high of 2,388. That showed strength that is waiting for further confirmation.
Last Week’s High of 2,393 is Key Pivot
Last week’s high of 2,393 presents the next key pivot as a rally above there puts gold on track to challenge May 20 record high of 2,450. The steadier the climb towards that high the better the chance that it can continue to rise on improving momentum. An extended retracement of the August 2011 decline presents the first long-term Fibonacci target at 2,462. It is followed by another long-term target at 2,480.
That is the completion of a measured move or rising ABCD pattern that begins from the August 2018 swing low of 1,160. The subsequent advance from the September 2022 swing low matches the first upswing from the 2018 low at 2,480. Long-term targets deserve to be watched to see how price behaves around the levels. They present points of decision where resistance may be seen, or a breakout could occur from the potential resistance area.
Second Breakout of Monthly on Deck
Gold should see an upsurge in momentum upon a rise above last week’s high as it will trigger the second breakout above a monthly high as well. June’s high of 2,388 was exceeded earlier and a second breakout may have clearer success.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Consolidates on 50-Day MA Support, Eyes New Highs
By: Bruce Powers | July 9, 2024
• Gold consolidates on 50-Day MA support, setting the stage for a potential breakout towards new highs, maintaining a bullish outlook despite recent sideways movement.
Gold is now in its third day of sideways consolidation sitting on support from the 50-Day MA at 2,342. Price support of the range is at today’s low of 2,349. It remains in a constructive position following a bullish breakout from a descending channel last week. Further, a breakout of the 20-Day MA, 50-Day MA, and another trendline also triggered last week. Price action since the breakout has been testing previous resistance as support, which is typically seen in the progression of an uptrend.
50-Day MA, Key Trend Support
The 50-Day line is a good nearby benchmark to use for signs of strength or weakness. Notice that it has recently converged (close) with the top channel trendline so that they each mark a similar price support zone. Next, the bulls will be watching for an acceleration to the upside away from the 50-Day line. That may set the stage for a challenge to the recent record highs seen in gold.
Last Week Closed Strong
A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was already completed last week at 2,388. A decisive advance above last week’s high will trigger a bullish continuation of the trend short-term uptrend, which is contained within a larger rising price structure. Last week a weekly bullish reversal triggered, and gold confirmed strength from the breakout with a weekly close at a seven-week high. Further, the week ended strong, with gold closing near the highs for the week.
This week we might see gold continue to consolidate and stay within the confines of last week’s price range (2,318 to 2,393), and end with an inside week. Such price action would retain the bullish outlook for gold and set the stage for renewed enthusiasm from buyers as they seek to see gold rise to new record highs. Following an upside breakout above 2,393 gold would next be heading up towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,415. Next up would come a challenge to the record high of 2,450 that was reached in May.
Monthly Bull Breakout Set to Run
It is also significant to note that last month’s high was 2,388 and it marked resistance for the month of June. June ended with an inside month doji pattern. An attempt at a monthly upside breakout triggered last week during the advance as the high was 2,393. Once that high was hit resistance was seen as sellers took over.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
China’s Golden Pause. Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | July 8, 2024
Precious metals or giving up some of their fantastic gains from last week partly because China decided to pause its spine for the central banks for the second month in a row. Traders remember all too well about the over $100.00 an ounce drop the gold saw after China pause its purchases last month. Now there are
concerns are that somehow China is going to remain out of the market for many months to come.
Yet signs that the dollar is topping after last week’s less than spectacular jobs report and the fact that some of the recent job creation is smoke and mirrors.
Fox Business reported that while the June jobs report revealed higher than expected job growth, with 206,000 new jobs created. A third of those jobs were in the government sector.
Government employment rose by 70,000, which is far higher than the average of 49,000 over the last year. Government employment was boosted by local government, excluding education and state government. The healthcare sector added 49,000 positions, lifted by increased hiring in ambulatory healthcare services and at hospitals. Construction payrolls increased by 27,000 jobs. But the retail sector shed jobs, as did manufacturing.
Professional and business services employment declined by 17,000 jobs, with temporary help jobs dropping by about 49,000. That likely portends slower payroll gains ahead.
Economists say the economy needs to create at least 150,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, accounting for the recent surge in immigration. In a good sign for the Federal Reserve and its battle against inflation, unemployment increased from 4% to 4.1%, and wage growth slowed to a rate not seen since 2021.
This data should create a very friendly environment for precious metals going forward that is one of the reasons why the correction after the China news isn’t nearly as big. Perhaps a good time to start looking at putting on bullish strategies for both silver and gold.
Copper is on verge of a major breakout effort after its recent massive correction. Copper hit a three-week high.
Strength in Indian’s economy and the expectation that China will stimulate their economy should keep the copper market on solid ground. On Friday we hit key resistance and if we can break above that area, we should be able to move sharply higher be on guard for a bit of a correction but look to buy the break.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
India’s central bank boosts gold reserves by the most in 2 years after moving 100 tons from the UK to domestic vaults
By: Bloomberg | July 8, 2024
(Bloomberg) -- India’s central bank probably increased its gold reserves by the most in almost two years last month, according to a World Gold Council analyst.
The Reserve Bank of India added more than nine tons in June, based on calculations using weekly data from the bank, Krishan Gopaul said in a post on social medial platform X. That’s the most since July 2022, and means India’s reserves have expanded by 37 tons this year to 841 tons, he said.
Central bank buying has been a key driver of bullion’s rally this year that sent prices to a record in May. The size of purchases has been a big focus and question mark for the market, as they can be delayed or not reported fully.
A large number of central banks still planned to buy gold in the coming year, spurred by heightened geopolitical and financial risks that make owning the metal more attractive, according to a recent survey by the WGC. About 20 planned to raise their holdings, according to the survey, which didn’t disclose which nations expect to buy.
India has been a major buyer of gold in recent years, alongside countries such as China and Turkey.
The Reserve Bank of India also moved 100 tons of its gold from the UK back to its domestic vaults, the Times of India reported in May.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Gives Thanks as the Economy Tanks
By: Mark Mead Baillie | July 7, 2024
Through recent missives we’ve been near-term negative on Gold, indeed looking for a move down to test the 2247-2171 structural support zone. Such read remains in concert with price’s weekly MACD (moving average convergence divergence) still adversely positioned.
But gritty Gold refuses to fold, price settling yesterday (Friday) at 2400, all told! And when the yellow metal trumps that which is technical, we’re reminded that Gold’s ultimate value is fundamental, that it “sees” what is about to economically unfold! Thus a Federal Reserve rate cut to behold? Or does the Fed not (yet) “see” the economy getting rolled?
In other words: will the Fed be behind the descending curve as ’tis usually? FedSpeak of late, whilst not necessarily hawkish, has been nonetheless cautious toward an otherwise imminent rate cut come the Open Market Committee’s Statement on 31 July. And if previously you’ve therein read this phrase once, you’ve read it a bazillion times: “…the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks…”
Well folks, with respect to Gold’s reality being fundamental, here as a heads-up to the not-ahead Fed is the incoming data, its evolving outlook, and hence a bleak balance of risks via the Economic Barometer. And as you long-time readers know, the Baro is borne of some 50 incoming metrics per month across 26 years as a tried-and-true leading indicator, at which (‘twould so seem) the FedFolks don’t look. But as we herein mused a week ago: come 25 July, might the first read of Q2 annualized Gross Domestic Product actually be negative? Cue Murray Head’s ballad from back in ’75 ““Say It Ain’t So, Joe” ” and have your own look:
‘Course when rates plop, Gold oft gets a pop. Moreover, a bevy of Gold positives are coming to the fore. However, first let’s update the stance of Gold’s weekly bars from a year ago-to-date, wherein we see a second week of parabolic Short trend now complete. But as was the case with the prior two red-dotted Short trends, shall this one also be “short-lived”? Either way — as has now been the case for some 13 weeks — price basically is ebbing and flowing ’round our year’s forecast high of 2375:
True, we just mentioned there are Gold positives for “The Now”, inclusive of the opening Gold Scoreboard’s currency debasement valuation already up at 3712 (i.e. 55% higher than the present price of 2400). Here are a few more immediate Gold positives upon which to chew:
• Monetarily: inflation “magically” vanished in May; ’tis over, and thus the Fed ought cut; Gold Positive;
• Fundamentally: the StateSide economy is tanking; ’tis sick and thus the Fed must cut; again, Gold Positive;
• Globally: U.S. Vice-President Kamala Devi Harris likely assumes the role of President between now and 20 January (regardless of her party’s nominee and ensuing election), thus becoming Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces at a time when global hotspots are ever so fragile and expanding; be that President perfectly capable or otherwise unproven, the world will become more nervous; clearly Gold Positive.
• Technically: despite the fresh weekly Gold parabolic Short stance and still-negative MACD, just yesterday came confirmation of the following Gold Positive:
If you follow the website’s analytics, the above graphic is updated daily on both the Gold and Market Values pages. And the rule of thumb is: when price breaks above its smooth valuation line, still higher price levels (by rule rather than exception) are to be expected. Yet, within the context of proper cash management, we obviously now have conflicting signals. But at the end of the day — regardless what technicals shout — ’tis by fundamentals Gold will out. No, we shan’t now disregard a test of the oft-of-late mentioned 2247-2171 structural support zone; however should a new All-Time High instead be nigh in concert with the next weekly parabolic flip to Long, then ““I Want to Take You Higher” ”shall be Gold’s song –[Sly and the Family Stone, ’69]
Next we go to Gold’s two-panel display of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date on the left and 10-day Market Profile on the right. The last two daily bars are sufficiently upside robust such that upon the baby blue dots of trend consistency crossing above the 0% axis, their foundational 21-day slope shall have rotated from negative to positive. And in the Profile we’ve labeled those prices of notable volume-trading support:
Similar is Sister Silver’s drill. Her “Baby Blues” (below left) are well in sync with those for Gold. And her Profile (below right) shows a myriad of supports. As noted early in the graphic for Gold’s Weekly Bars, the Gold/Silver ratio is now 76.1x versus 79.4x a week ago, indicative of Silver garnering interest as she remains exceedingly cheap vis-à-vis Gold, (the average century-to-date ratio being 63.3x). Indeed whilst Gold today at 2400 is just -2.2% below its All-Time High (2454), Sister Silver now at 31.53 is -36.7% below her All-Time High (49.82). So do not forget her:
In closing for this week, guess what commences on Monday?
“Q2 Earnings Season, mmb.“
Exactly right, Squire. And surely you duly noted in the aforeshown Economic Barometer the “live” price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is an essentially valueless 43.5x. Who owns the S&P 500 at such an historically extreme level? Look again at the Econ Baro: to bring the P/E in line with any measure of past P/E means, do we really expect bottom lines to have doubled in Q2? Of course not! And yet, the S&P 500 — void of supportive earnings and comparatively little yield (1.316%) — continues to set record highs, reaching on Friday up to 5570.
‘Course the last thing the Fed wants to see (beyond the demise of the Almighty Dollar, which is the Fed’s mandate to maintain in equilibrium) is the inevitable crash of the Great American Savings Account (aka “The Stock Market”). But you S&P futures traders with long memories (and you know who you are out there) may recall from the “Conspiratorial Truth Dept.” the sole reason which keeps the market from crashing: the Fed (so it used to be said) has a trading account on the futures floor:
“Dat’s right, you keep hittin’ dem offers dere, Jay baby!”
But can the Fed then print its way out of a margin call when it all goes wrong? Folks: you can ultimately crash and burn along with the rest in this Investing Age of Stoopid … or instead give thanks for Gold!
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 6, 2024
The NY Gold Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high by 0.97%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 20 days. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 2.81% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 24262, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Moreover, a lower opening and a penetration of today's low of 23560 with a closing beneath this level would suggest today's high will stand temporarily.
Our Stochastics are all still pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 23737.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 24542, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of June 3rd, which has been a move of 4.222%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 20th has exceeded the previous high of 24488 made back during the week of April 8th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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