JRoon71
12 hours ago
CBB, it’s my belief that Sarissa cannot be buying too many more shares yet, because if they exceed 10%, they would be classified as Insiders, and be ineligible to short the stock (per Amarin bylaws).
I think they have been responsible for keeping the price down through targeted shorting. And I think they will end their shorting campaign, begin buying for themselves, and executing the buyback, all around the same time.
I bet we will know when all of this starts to unfold. The stock price action, and activity from the company, will look very different.
couldbebetter
13 hours ago
JRoon71, Very good analysis and all very much plausible.
Before we see the share buyback begun in earnest, I hope
we see Sarissa increase their AMRN position significantly.
That, for me, would boost my confidence that Denner actually
is following a plan. If Sarissa fails to take advantage of the
low price of AMRN stock prior to any actual buyback, would
give me pause as to Denner's level of confidence. So far I
do not see any indication that Sarissa is accumulating more shares.
Given the low price of AMRN stock, that in itself, is disturbing.
I would not be surprised if we find out the share buyback plan
has been rolled back to year end.
JRoon71
22 hours ago
Thanks MMS.
It's really hard to make any sort of evaluation of gameplan or timeframe on this one. I'll give you my *thoughts*, but that's all it is.
Denner is in a unique position where he has complete control of the board and the company. That is unusual, so it's not your typical "gameplan". Despite what some people have said over the past several months, I don't think Denner is going to "just dump it for 2 bucks". That is what people WANT so they can be done with this. But it has no basis in reality. If you look at the numbers, I can't think of any scenario where Vascepa is worth less than $5 a share. And even that is on the far low-end of reasonable ($5/share implies roughly $450-500M in PEAK revenues).
I think Denner needs a big win out of this one. His portfolio is sucking wind, and the majority of his holdings are in larger companies right now, so there's not a ton of upside there. But he has the opportunity to blow the doors off things with a big win with Amarin.
A reasonable starting point would be $10/share (IMO). That implies roughly $1B in PEAK worldwide revenues. I think that is very attainable for a BP. VERY attainable. But this does not really consider upside from anything beyond what we have in the U.S., plus China, EU and some little revenue in the RoW. If they find a way to re-capture the U.S. market, either through litigation or a new formulation, then all bets are off, and the number should go up from there.
But as it stands, I think $10-15 seems attainable. And I think the longer it takes, the stronger likelihood of a bigger number. If Denner thinks he can't get more than 5 bucks, he's not holding this thing for 3 more years. He's dumping it. But if he thinks he can get $10-15 (or more), then he can be patient and let those compound returns accumulate until the time is right.
I don't think anything will happen until there is more clarity on European approvals in Italy, France, and possibly Germany. They need to get those across the finish line. Amarin rolling out Vascepa on their own exposed the weakness across the globe, so now BP's that may have been champing at the bit in 2019 or far more reluctant to pursue Amarin until/unless they have assurances that they can actually get paid in the biggest countries they want to be in.
As far as litigation, I don't think they will wait for that. The litigation against Hikma could take 3 years, 5 years, 10 years. No way of knowing (unless there is something they already know). The GSK/Teva case has taken 10 years, and it's still not done. If we find a way to settle (favorably), in the next year or two, then that would be icing on the cake.
If I had to bet, I would say a sale happens late 2025 or into 2026. But that's also without knowing much of anything that is going on internally. I think the biggest clue that something is starting to happen will be when/if we see a flurry of activity (PR's, etc.) and rapid price growth. But while we still linger around a buck or less, nothing is happening.
rosemountbomber
2 days ago
Just adding to the discussion here a while back about PBMs. Not only do they screw the pharmaceutical companies, this piece discusses how they screw some pharmacies. This story is specifically dealing with Walgreens but applies to others. Notably the author of the article does not seem to think the FTC will be successful in reining in PBMs:
Walgreens still operates the largest chain of retail pharmacies, with about 8,700 in the U.S. and thousands more abroad. Its enormous size is an advantage for the pharmacy chain when it comes to sourcing prescription drugs and consumer goods. Unfortunately, pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) that dictate how much reimbursement pharmacies receive when they fill prescriptions are eroding this advantage.
The three largest PBMs are also owned by insurers: CVS Health, UnitedHealth Group, and Cigna. None of these businesses are obligated to ensure Walgreens can turn a profit when it fills prescriptions. Moreover, all three also manage their own mail-order pharmacies, so there's a strong financial incentive to turn patients away from Walgreens and other retail outlets.
When the company reported fiscal third-quarter results in June, it had to lower earnings guidance for the year to reflect what it called "pharmacy industry trends" caused by PBMs. The stock's recent price is less than four times management's adjusted earnings estimate for the fiscal year that ends in August.
On the one hand, Walgreens stock could produce huge gains if earnings stop falling. Then again, the stranglehold the consolidated PBM industry has on retail pharmacies isn't likely to subside anytime soon.
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is preparing to sue CVS Health, UnitedHealth Group, and Cigna over their drug pricing practices, but success doesn't seem likely. It's probably best to avoid investing in independent pharmacy chains like Walgreens unless the FTC's suit against the three big PBMs succeeds.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/23/2-beaten-down-dividend-stocks-with-ultra-high-yiel/
JRoon71
2 days ago
Was looking at the BRAVE poster for the upcoming Alzheimer's Association meeting in a week. Since it seems that they are reporting findings on blood lipid levels, blood pressure, and adverse events (but not on the primary ALZ endpoints of the study), and they are NOT reporting at CTAD this year (they presented the trial design and primary outcomes last year), it's probably safe to assume that EPA for ALZ is not going anywhere (for now).
But it does make me wonder if they must have some other positive findings related to lipids and blood pressure? Otherwise, why would they bother with a poster presentation?
CaptBeer
2 days ago
Hello my Friends,
Here is a summary of the prescription data for VAZKEPA® in the UK (May 2024):
• VAZKEPA® growth was 6.5% vs. April (223,945 vs. 210,256).
• VAZKEPA® again improved its market share vs. Omacor (See Slides #6 & #7)
• Total LLT Market in the UK continues to grow and VAZKEPA® is slowly growing its market share in all 3 categories (Total Market, Omega-3’s, Non-Statin)
Here is the full report for May 2024:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cFb9_qAjU9vsQOebkFGRkhs6pOBjSmvZ/view?usp=sharing
Enjoy.
ORBAPU
2 days ago
The article doesn’t state his LDL or trigs, but with a CAC score of 530 and BP of 160/90, he’s a walking dead man. More than anything, the article illustrates how heart disease patients are poorly served by medical professionals. They have one arrow in their quiver, lower LDL. Maybe triglycerides.
My point wasn’t about statin intolerance, it was that Vascepa wasn’t even mentioned.
ORBAPU
2 days ago
Then there’s Dr Keith.
Patient seeks an option to statins
Keith Roach, M.D. Updated: July 22, 2024
Q: I had a CT calcium scan, and my score was 530. My doctor said that this was high, so he put me on a statin (Lipitor). But it debilitated me with so much muscle pain that I had to stop. I am wondering if there is something other than a statin to help lower cholesterol. My doctor told me to go on the Mediterranean-style diet, then check my numbers again. Last time, my blood pressure was 160/90 mm Hg. I also have a family history of heart disease.
A: I entered your information into a calculator (the MESA score, available at tinyurl.com/MESAscore) and found that you have an approximately 13% risk of having a heart attack, needing a bypass, or dying from heart disease in the next 10 years. This is high enough that treatment to reduce risk is clearly recommended. A statin like Lipitor is usually the first-line treatment, since we have decades of research showing that it reduces heart attack in people at a high risk. Treatment with a statin is expected to reduce your risk to about 10.5%. A Mediterranean-style diet is expected to reduce your risk by another 1% or 2%.
When a person can’t tolerate Lipitor, I usually stop the drug for at least a month, then restart them on a different statin, preferably one with a lower risk of muscle pain. If a person really can’t tolerate any statin, then another option is the new treatment bempedoic acid, which works similarly to a statin but does not affect muscles. Unfortunately, it’s very expensive. Some other options are a PCSK-9 inhibitor, which is also very expensive, or ezetimibe, which isn’t quite as effective, but is better than no treatment at all.
Getting your blood pressure down (ideally below 130 mm Hg) either through lifestyle changes or medication can also reduce your heart disease risk.