Semiconductor companies' increasingly dreary earnings reports
and uncertainty ahead suggest no area of chips is immune to the
economic downturn, and any hope of rebound is premature.
So far, wrenching declines in quarterly income and revenue have
mostly come from memory makers and companies highly exposed to PCs
and other consumer electronics. But low visibility at chip giants
like Intel Corp. (INTC) and shifts of fortune at Samsung
Electronics Co. (005930.SE) among others likely mean companies soon
to report, like Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) and Broadcom Corp.
(BRCM), are also set to disappoint.
"One thing we can learn from Intel is that there is weakness
across all geographies," Edward Jones analyst Bill Kreher said. "If
Intel is seeing limited visibility, the entire tech industry is
seeing limited visibility."
Nonetheless, shares of chipmakers rose across the board Friday,
after a week of grim reports and falling stock prices. The
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, jumped 5.2% to 210.46
after falling 6.7% since last Friday. Among notable movers, Intel
rose 4.4%, equipment maker Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) gained
7.4% and Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) was up 9.8% at
$6.81.
Last quarter, limited visibility developed into outlook
revisions and then dismal earnings reports. Intel slashed its
guidance twice in the fourth-quarter before reporting a 23% drop in
revenue. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) slashed its revenue
forecast Dec. 4, followed by revisions less than a week later at
TI, Broadcom, Altera Corp. (ALTR) and others.
And so far, the chip companies reporting earnings have added
little for investors to find optimistic.
Intel hit its reduced outlook numbers, but avoided formal
guidance and instead provided a $7 billion internal estimate for
first-quarter revenue. AMD said only that first-quarter revenue
would decline from the fourth quarter. Samsung, one of the
strongest companies in the tech sector, posted its first loss since
it began reporting quarterly results in 2000. And other relatively
strong chip companies, Xilinx Inc. (XLNX) and Linear Technology
Corp. (LLTC), noted weakness ahead.
To be sure, companies making chips used in computers and
servers, such as Intel and AMD, feel more directly the effect of
the rising chip inventories that are plaguing the industry. Those
chips become outdated faster than the analog chips used in cars or
heavy industry, so inventory swings or changes in consumer habits
hit those companies sooner.
"The PC industry has a better handle on how things are going,
but probably overreacts when things slow down," said BMO Capital
chip analyst Brian Piccioni.
The market reacted swiftly to re-evaluate the value of these
companies share prices, though the same can't necessarily be said
of the next major chip makers to report, TI and Broadcom.
After Intel and AMD cut their guidance, their shares fell ahead
of earnings. From Jan. 7 until it reported last week, Intel was
down 14%. AMD dropped 5.2% after lowering its outlook until
reporting Thursday.
TI and Broadcom, however, traded higher following their downward
estimate revisions in December. Broadcom is up 12%; TI has risen,
though a scant 0.5%.
While TI fell around 14% from its third-quarter report until it
lowered fourth-quarter guidance - suggesting investors may have
already anticipated at least some earnings declines - Broadcom rose
3.8% from the third-quarter report in October until its guidance
cut.
The gains continued Friday. Broadcom shares were recently up
5.3% at $17.46. Texas Instruments gained 5.3% to $15.12.
Concerns, though, are rising that Broadcom, which has seen
smaller stock declines than others due in part to its exposure to
fast growing markets, could let investors down.
"By no stretch of the imagination is Broadcom immune to what is
happening in the broader economy," Caris & Co. analyst Betsy
Van Hees said, adding that the company's first-quarter outlook when
it reports next week will be key.
"If they cite weakness across multiple end markets, it will
signal to investors that it's not as safe a haven as they thought,"
she said.
For Texas Instruments, Edward Jones' Kreher said the better
guides to fourth-quarter performance and prospects for the current
year are the recent results from cell phone makers Nokia Corp.
(NOK) and Motorola Inc. (MOT).
TI still garners 40% of its revenue from handset chips, Kreher
said, and as a major customer, Nokia's larger-than-expected
fourth-quarter drops in profit and sales don't bode well for the
chip maker.
Additionally, TI has looked to its analog business to boost
margins, and analog chips are likely taking a hit as well, Kreher
said.
"It may not be to the degree of what's happening in the handset
industry, but we are definitely seeing a slowdown," he said.
TI reports earnings Wednesday. Broadcom reports Thursday.
-By Jerry A. DiColo; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5670;
jerry.dicolo@dowjones.com
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