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2 days ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 20, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 29299 and is trading up about 21% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. As of now, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 29560, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32015 intraday while it is still trading above last month's close of 29560.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 29490 and support forming below at 28730. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 32015, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 10th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 30620. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 28855. Additional support is to be found at 28730. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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3 days ago
Silver Traders Should Stay Focused On Gold/Silver Ratio
By: Vladimir Zernov | July 19, 2024
Key Points:
• Unlike gold, silver has no support from central banks.
• As a result, additional demand for silver depends on speculative traders and investors.
• The analysis of gold/silver ratio dynamics is increasingly important for success in silver trading.
Gold markets have recently tested historic highs, but silver failed to gain sufficient upside momentum and did not manage to get to the test of the highs that were reached back in May.
The fluctuations of gold/silver ratio served as the key catalyst for recent weakness in silver markets. At the end of May, gold/silver ratio reached a low of 72.74 and then stabilized near the 77.50 level. In recent days, gold/silver ratio gained strong upside momentum and moved above the 82 level, which was bearish for silver markets.
What’s driving gold silver ratio? At this point, silver markets are mostly driven by speculators, as industrial demand is stable. Unlike gold, silver does not enjoy support from central banks, which means that silver markets must attract speculative investors to make a strong move.
As a result, silver traders are closely watching dynamics of gold markets and start buying silver when gold is moving higher. If these traders believe that gold is about to face resistance, they sell silver. This type of behaviour causes wild fluctuations of gold/silver ratio, which serves as a key indicator for silver traders.
This year, gold/silver ratio was moving between the highs at 92.10, which were reached in January, and the above-mentioned lows at 72.74. Gold/silver ratio has recently moved above the strong resistance near the 80 level and continues to move higher, putting additional pressure on silver markets.
In case gold markets continue to move away from historic highs, silver may find itself under more pressure, as gold/silver ratio could move closer to yearly highs.
When demand for gold starts rising again, silver could outperform as gold/silver ratio will likely decline. In this scenario, speculative traders would rush to buy the relatively cheap silver to capitalize on the upside moves in gold markets. Thus, watching gold/silver ratio dynamics is extremely important for success in silver trading in 2024.
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4 days ago
Silver Continues to Look For Momentum
By: Christopher Lewis | July 18, 2024
• The silver market rallied a bit in the early hours on Thursday, as the market is trying to recover from the massive selloff on Wednesday. This is a market that will remain volatile, so make sure that you keep your position size reasonable.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday, but quite frankly, we’ve got a situation where we had sold off so viciously on Wednesday that I think you’re probably better off waiting to see whether or not we can turn things around. After all, as we head into the New York session, we have given up half the gains.
That doesn’t mean that the Americans won’t pick this market up and continue to drive it higher. It just means that the market is more likely than not going to continue to be a little on edge, I do believe that the $30 level is crucial, and it certainly has shown itself to be so during the day on Wednesday, but even if we broke down below there, it doesn’t necessarily change the trend. It just shows that we are going to remain very choppy and volatile.
The 50-day EMA sits just below there, and I think that is also something worth paying attention to as well. With all of that being said, silver is most certainly a market that you’re going to have to be cautious with because it’s volatile under the best of circumstances, but it’s also driven mainly most of the time by interest rates, but it can also be driven by risk appetite, geopolitics, those types of things.
So, you also have to be aware of that. Ultimately, I think you continue to see a lot of noise, and I think silver continues to be a bit of a wild animal that you have to be very cautious with your position sizing more than anything else. It does favor the upside, so that is, I think, the most important thing to pay attention to.
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6 days ago
Silver Continues to Look “Buy on The Dip”
By: Christopher Lewis | July 16, 2024
• Silver continues to look bullish, but at the end of the day, the market got a little stretched. At this point, I am looking at the $30 level with a lot of interest, and I think the rest of the market is as well. Ultimately, we are in a big uptrend.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially tried to rally during the session on Tuesday, but it looks as if it is going to struggle a little bit ultimately, and I think this is a market that will eventually try to sort itself out and rally.
But the retail sales coming in hotter than anticipated in the United States has yields rising. So, it’s working against silver a little bit. That’s actually not a bad thing because the market is a little overdone. A little bit of a pullback offers value and I do think that the $30 level is more likely than not going to attract a certain amount of buying.
Furthermore, we have the 50 day EMA racing towards that level. So that’s also something worth paying attention to as the market does love its large, round, psychologically significant figures. We’ve seen action at the $30 level before, so would not be a huge surprise to see it come into the picture again as a potential area of support.
Above, we have the $32 level offering a ceiling, that’s a large round figure that has been resistant. I think that’s eventually where we go, but we may have to pull back just a little bit to offer enough value and entice enough traders into the market. All things being equal, silver, of course, will run on interest rates, industrial demand and to a lesser extent, geopolitical tensions as it is a precious metal.
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7 days ago
Silver Consolidates Near Highs, Poised for Potential Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 15, 2024
• Silver has been consolidating near recent highs, with a breakout above 31.76 signaling bullish continuation. Key support around 30.14-29.80 underpins the near-term bullish outlook.
Silver has been consolidating for the past six days, since reaching a high of 31.49 on Friday July 5. A subsequent higher rally high of 31.76 was reached last Thursday. An advance above that high will trigger a bullish continuation of the rising trend. Key near-term support is close by around 30.14 to 29.99. It starts with a swing high from February 2021, followed by the 20-Day MA at 30.07 and the 50-Day MA at 30.00.
Another swing high, this time from April 12, shows at 29.80. Together, these price levels can be considered as a range from around 30.14 to 29.80. A near-term bullish outlook is maintained if silver stays above that price zone during weakness.
Bullish Reversal on Channel Breakout
On July 3, silver triggered an upside breakout from a bearish retracement channel. The breakout was decisive, completing a wide ranged green candle with a close near the highs. In addition to the channel breakout through a downtrend line, a bull breakout of both the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA was also triggered. Notice that during the recent decline the 20-Day line approached the 50-Day line, but it did not drop below it. As prices reverted towards the mean, the two moving averages converged towards each other.
Low Volatility Has Higher Volatility on Deck
Lower volatility typically leads to higher volatility, and that looks to be what silver is preparing for. Declines towards support are likely to be used by investors to build a position at somewhat lower prices than seen recently. That support area should be strong enough to lead to a bullish rally that sees silver exceeded the recent 31.76 swing high. A pullback before an upside breakout refreshes the situation and better prepares silver for a sustained rally towards previous highs from 32.30 to 32.52.
50-Day MA Trend Support is Key
Since trend support was reestablished recently around the 50-Day MA, it should continue to represent a key trend support area as prices further appreciate. The recent attempt to fall below the 50-Day MA was eventually met with support and a recapture of the line. Given the subsequent bullish recovery, another test of support may occur, but the 50-Day line should stay strong and stop an additional decline in prices. Let’s also keep in mind that a bullish signal triggered on the July monthly chart this month. It sets up the potential for bullish follow through on that time frame. Therefore, the shorter time frame patterns should keep in mind the larger developing monthly bullish pattern.
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1 week ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 13, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31162 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32015 intraday and is still trading above that high of 31670.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30785 and overhead resistance forming above at 31435. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 32015, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 10th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 32015 to 30620. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1 week ago
Silver Continues to See Volatile Moves
By: Christopher Lewis | July 12, 2024
• The silver market has been all over the place during the week, but it still remains a very bullish market. Keep in mind that inflation is still an open question for a lot of traders, and of course we’re not sure what the Federal Reserve will end up doing.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Silver has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week, and of course that is mainly driven by the central bank expectations, and on Thursday, the CPI numbers in the United States came out at half of what they were supposed to. But on Friday, the PPI numbers came out four times hotter than they were supposed to. So, with that being said, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, but clearly the Federal Reserve has a lot to think about still.
And that is the one thing it seems that is really keeping silver from truly just launching. That being said, silver is a very thin contract at times, and it also is a huge contract. So, you need to be very cautious. And therefore, I think a little bit of a pullback is probably a good thing, especially when you look at the candlestick from last week.
Yes, it’s a positive market and I certainly would not short silver. But I think at this point in time you have to look at it through the prism of a market that you’re trying to find value in. The $30 level would be very intriguing to me if we could find it. And then after that you have $28.50. Anything below there becomes a potential warning sign. But right now, I think this is a market that you’re looking for value to ride out the upward momentum and hopefully break above the $32 level cleanly, which would allow silver to go much higher.
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2 weeks ago
Silver Continues to Look Strong
By: Christopher Lewis | July 11, 2024
• The silver market rallied a bit during the session on Thursday, as the markets continue to focus on the idea of inflation cooling in the United States, and the CPI numbers on Thursday will have reiterated this potential influence.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has broken to the upside during the trading session on Thursday, as the consumer price index numbers in the United States came out much weaker than anticipated. This has people hoping and perhaps even believing that the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates later this year, and that has people excited for risk appetite. With that being the case, it’s just a continuation of the very bullish behavior that we had seen in the silver market. And now it looks like we could threaten the recent highs near the $32.50 level.
We certainly saw a huge surge initially after that announcement came out cooler than anticipated. So, it’ll be interesting to see if we get any follow through. Short term pullbacks at this point in time should continue to be thought of as buying opportunities, and I think the $31 level will be the first support level. After that we have the $30 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure which is starting to attract the attention of the 50 day EMA.
All things being equal, I think it is becoming increasingly obvious that silver is not a market you can sell, and therefore you have to look for buying opportunities, perhaps on dips, on short term charts, or maybe just a fresh new high. Silver, of course, is highly sensitive to interest rates, which obviously are dropping and therefore it frees silver to go higher. Also, there’s the industrial demand aspect of silver. So don’t forget that a lot of people will be looking to whether or not the Fed will stimulate the economy.
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2 weeks ago
Silver's AI Boom: The Next Big Trade You Need to Know About
By: Karl Montevirgen | July 10, 2024
• Silver may be the next big "AI trade"
• While silver ETFs are seeing large outflows, silver futures are telling a different story
• Understanding silver's seasonal pattern and identifying the key levels to watch are critical
Over the last few years, the "AI trade" has shifted from the hottest trend to a portfolio centerpiece. The rationale for the shift is obvious: it's hard to imagine future technology without AI.
But while the AI trade revolves around the usual suspects—semiconductors and various big tech stocks—silver is a critical yet overlooked component supplying the entire AI industry.
Silver's Role in the AI Industry
Silver isn't the only metal in AI tech production; its role is critical. Without it, AI—and much of electronic tech—wouldn't exist. Its applications in thermal conductivity, semiconductor fabrication, sensors, connectors, and photovoltaic cells make silver indispensable in AI tech production.
The Silver Institute says global silver demand is set to hit around 1.2 billion ounces this year, the second-highest level ever recorded. Even with more silver being produced in response to industrial demand, analysts still believe the market will be in deficit for the fourth year in a row.
Silver's 5-Year Seasonality Chart
Take a look at silver's ($SILVER) five-year seasonality performance using StockCharts' Seasonality chart tool.
CHART 1. 5-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF SILVER. Note the volatile performance quarter by quarter.
First, why a five-year seasonality chart? The answer is that it gives more weight to silver's industrial demand and the AI trade starting in the year before the COVID lockdown. Still, if the market has been in a supply deficit for four years while demand keeps rising, you might wonder if the current price is somehow ‘repressed,' setting the stage for a big surge.
• Over the last four years, silver has returned, on average, 8.5% this month (average returns are at the bottom of the bar).
• August and September show the summer doldrums, with the latter's figure looking quite dismal.
• October through December, the best months, topped even that of March through May in terms of average returns and, to some extent, higher close rates (those are the numbers above the bar).
Silver's Macro View Shows Major Breakout
Looking back at silver's performance over the last 16 years, the white metal is breaking out of a wide (and very ugly) four-year trading range.
CHART 2. WEEKLY CHART OF SILVER. Silver just broke out of a four-year (and very volatile) trading range.
Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, you can see how the rallies correspond to the increased buying pressure. The current reading may not be as dramatic as the levels seen in 2010 and 2011, but this is where you make an informed guess as to whether such a move is about to start.
Silver's price broke above the four-year resistance level at $30. However, it faces technical headwinds at approximately $36, $44, and right below $50 (the highest level reached was $49.45 in 1980 and $48.70 in 2011).
Are Big Players Scooping Up What Retail Investors Are Ditching?
Before looking at the daily chart from a tactical perspective for some potential entry points, let's first compare the silver futures market ($SILVER) to the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) and focus specifically on the different readings from the CMF, which represents buying vs selling pressure.
CHART 3. DAILY CHART COMPARISON OF SILVER FUTURES VS ISHARES SILVER TRUST ETF. Notice the difference in money flow between the two.
The price correlation between the two markets is very tight, as SLV is a commodity-backed ETF. But look at the difference in money flow. The futures market shows a positive reading while the ETF dipped into negative territory.
Does this represent the sentiment of different types of market participants—namely, institutional investors (or commercial traders) versus retail investors? If so, might it indicate that the bigger players are buying what the retail traders are selling to them at a possible discount? It's something to think about.
Analyzing SLV's Near-Term Price Action
Take a look at the daily chart of SLV below. The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score is soaring above the 90 line, indicating technical bullishness across several indicators and timeframes.
The CMF is below the zero line, indicating retail investors may be liquidating positions. However, is quiet accumulation occurring among institutional players in the futures market amid retail selling?
CHART 4. DAILY CHART OF SLV. The CMF divergence is clear, but given how it almost contradicts the reading you get with silver futures, it almost changes the story the charts tell.
Take a look at the trendline (black) on the SLV chart. If silver's seasonal tendency materializes, then you would expect near-term weakness. SLV's price will likely test the trendline first (at whatever price point that will be at the moment) before testing the most recent swing low at $26.00. Should the price break below that level, you can expect support at the next major swing low at $24.00.
If price falls below that, there is further support at consecutive swing lows, but you will want to re-examine the macro situation before taking any further action.
Add the following two charts to your StockCharts ChartLists.
The $SILVER chart shows what the silver futures (continuous contracts) price action looks like in contrast to the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). The ETF is designed to track the futures, but look closely—those little technical differences might lead you to hidden market opportunities.
Closing Bell
Not many retail traders see it, but silver shines in the AI world. AI's rise as a portfolio must-have puts a spotlight on silver's critical role in tech production. But there's a catch—silver supply may not be keeping up with soaring demand. While silver futures show strong buying, retail investors are ditching the SLV ETF. Big players might be scooping up what retail traders are selling, potentially setting the stage for a massive price surge later in the year.
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2 weeks ago
Silver Inside Day Sets Stage for Potential Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 8, 2024
• Silver’s inside day after recent rally hints at a bullish breakout above 31.37, eyeing resistance at 31.55.
Silver pulled back a bit on Monday from its rally high of 31.49 reached last Friday. It is on track to complete an inside day today as trading is contained within Friday’s price range. Last week’s bullish reversal in the weekly time frame set the stage for a continuation higher. A rest day following last week’s advance to a seven-week closing high is normal and healthy for the developing advance. It should lead to a new setup for a bullish continuation of the trend.
Inside Day Breakout Setting Up
An aggressive bull signal will be given on a decisive rally above today’s high of 31.37. That will trigger an inside day breakout. It reflects a breakout from a consolidation pattern on the daily time frame. Therefore, traders will be watching for strong upside follow through if the signal is triggered. If that doesn’t happen, the breakout is subject to failure.
Downside Price Levels
On the downside, near-term support is at today’s low of 30.44. If it fails to maintain support, Friday’s low of 30.13 is next in line. If broken to the downside, natural gas could fall to test support around the bullish breakout area around 29.70 that was triggered last Wednesday. That price area is supported by the 20-Day MA at 29.69 and the 50-Day MA at 29.58.
Next Target Above Trend High is 33.17
A decisive rally above today’s high could be the beginning of an upside continuation set to challenge the interim swing of 31.55. That is the next higher price level on the agenda. Once there is a daily close above 31.55, silver should then be ready to again approach the 32.52 trend high from early-May and will likely break above it. A basic extended retracement target for silver is 33.17. That price level completes a 127.2% Fibonacci extended retracement of the most recent bearish pullback. In other words, a 100% retracement will complete at the most recent swing high of 32.52.
So far, trading in July has been contained within June’s trading range. But last month’s high of 31.55 will likely be challenged as resistance before this month is over, with an upside monthly breakout a likely resolution. This puts greater weight on the behavior of silver relative to the 31.55 price level mentioned earlier.
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2 weeks ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 6, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31689 and is trading up about 31% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 31790 intraday and is still trading above that high of 31670.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 31180 and overhead resistance forming above at 32280. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 32750, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of June 10th, which has been a move of 10.65%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 29905 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of March 18th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 21975 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2 weeks ago
Silver Continues to Look Good
By: Christopher Lewis | July 5, 2024
• Silver continues to be strong, and it now looks as if we are getting close to another breakout to the upside. The jobs number has shown itself to be stronger than expected, but only slightly. It looks like we will have more of the same behavior.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has shown itself to be rather resilient during the trading session after it initially pulled back. It turned right back around and defended the $30 level. At this point, it does look like it’s going to do everything it can to rally and break out. And if and when it does, I think you’ve got a situation where traders will be looking at this through the prism of trying to play the momentum. Remember, silver is a very momentum driven market.
And as a result, I think a lot of traders will be very interested in trying to get long if we can break above the region that we are currently threatening in the area of $30.75. At that point, I think we probably go looking to the $31.50 level and then eventually the $32 level. Short-term pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities and silver, I think, has already proven itself to be resilient before Friday.
And now that Friday has had the announcement come out, I think it shows just how possible it is that silver will be a big winner. I would be cautious with position sizing. Silver can be very noisy, but ultimately you cannot be a seller of this market anymore. It’s shown you that it’s not willing to break down. Whether or not we can break above $32 remains to be seen, but it certainly looks like we’re going to try to get there, although I do not know how long it will take at this point.
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3 weeks ago
Star Spangled Silver Breakout. Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | July 3, 2024
The silver market knows how to celebrate independence by breakout for the resistance that bound it. Silver seems to have ended its correction and traded at the highest level since the first day of summer June 21st, as the dollar rally is looking vulnerable and reports of strong physical demand.
As Myra Picache at MarketWatch pointed out that silver outpaced not only gold in the first quarter but copper and the S@P 500.
She Wrote that “Metals marked a “generally” positive second quarter, analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note dated Monday.
The total return for silver’s spot price was at 16.7% for the period, while copper’s was at 9.6%, with both posting their strongest quarterly total return performances in six quarters, Deutsche Bank said. Gold’s 4.3% return in the second quarter, meanwhile, was its third straight quarterly gain.
Silver, which is a very good conductor of electricity, is seeing increased demand for uses in solar panels and semiconductor chips, Caruso said. There was a notable jump in solar-panel demand last year, and now demand for artificial-intelligence chips has silver “front and center from a demand perspective.”
Based on the most-active futures contracts, silver climbed by 18.6% in the second quarter, outpacing gold’s 4.5% rise and copper’s 9.6% climb, according to Dow Jones Market Data. For the first half of this year, silver futures posted a rise of 22.7%, compared with gains of 12.9% each for gold and copper futures.
The key for silver today will be the ADP jobs report we also have early speech from fed chairman Paul and the market will have any indications on interest rates but because it looks like the dollar is starting to look choppy it’s very possible that we can see a nice pop not only on silver but across the metals complex
Palladium looks like it’s also broken out and platinum has a very strong possibility to catch up to silver.
Political uncertainty of course is also going to give some support to the metals. Not only overseas but here in the United States.
Kitco Metals wrote that :”The prospect of a Trump victory in November could push investors around the world into the yellow metal, while both gold and silver prices stand to benefit from tariffs and trade disputes, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus. “
In their latest precious metals report, Heraeus suggested that the economic policies of a second Trump administration could drive global investors into gold.
“The upcoming 5 November presidential election will set the United States on two fundamentally different paths, depending on the outcome,” the analysts wrote. “The more unpredictable former president and current Republican candidate, Donald Trump, may introduce several economic policies that could lead to significant market shocks, geopolitical risks and rising inflation. Trump currently maintains an edge over Biden in the polls – 46.9% vs. 45.0%.”
I think they need to calm down everybody has to remember that all the predictions of economic doom and gloom the first time Donald Trump became president turned out not to be true in fact we saw the markets really soar under Donald Trump we saw inflation low and this fear mongering about the so-called trade wars I think it’s overstated for metals still there are other reasons to be long metals right now because inflation is still an issue and because the dollar more than likely is at a top.
WE will see how the ADP report looks but we continue to look to buy breaks.
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3 weeks ago
Silver Faces Persistent Downtrend, Key Levels Under Threat
By: Bruce Powers | July 1, 2024
• Silver remains in a downtrend, testing key moving averages with selling pressure dominant, signaling potential further declines unless a clear bullish breakout occurs.
Silver further consolidated on Monday and is on track to end with an inside day. It remains in a downtrend and again tested the 20-Day MA (purple) today as resistance and then sold off intraday. The day’s high was 29.48 and the low was 28.96.
There was also a successful test of resistance at the 20-Day line last Friday. Today’s high generates a lower daily high relative to Friday’s high, a short-term sign of weakness. Further, although silver popped back above the orange 50-Day MA both today and Friday, it closed below it the previous four days and it may do so again today. Silver is already below its uptrend line.
Downtrend Remains Dominant
Taken together, unless there is a clear bullish sign, silver is pointing lower. It remains in a developing downtrend. A failure to break above the 20-Day line, as well as the closes below the 50-Day line, show selling pressure remaining dominant.
Subsequently, a decline below today’s low of 28.96 is a sign of weakness and may be the beginning of the end for the small bullish retracement of the past several days. Friday’s low was 28.77 and Thursday hit a low of 26.68. Those price levels can be watched for additional bearish confirmation, while a bear trend continuation signal is indicated on a drop below the current retracement low at 28.57.
Following the decline below the uptrend line on June 24, silver fell below the 50-Day line before finding support at 28.57. That low completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of an internal upswing, which correlates with the May 2021 swing high of 28.75. If the latest swing low fails to maintain support the next lower target zone is around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 27.41, followed by 27.0, which was previous resistance at the March 2022 interim swing high.
Rise Above 29.73 Would Reflect Strength
For a bullish sign, a decisive breakout above last week’s high of 29.73 would be needed. That would also put silver back above the 20-Day MA. Additional signs of strength would then be needed. Recapturing the 30.14 price level would provide additional signs of strength.
The 30.14 price level comes from the peak in 2021. It remained the high intraday traded price for silver up until the decisive bullish breakout on May 17 of this year. Notice the clear bullish momentum and strong daily close on the breakout day. Therefore, recapturing the 30.14 price level could see buyers return more aggressively to assist in the continuation of the bull trend.
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3 weeks ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 29, 2024
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 29955. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 11 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 2 daysNevertheless, this market remains well above all seven of our intial support levels. Nonetheless, the market remains neutral on our system indicators.
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 30905. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 29690 and support forming below at 29505. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 32750, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 18 weeks reaching a high during the week of June 17th at 28985. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a significant move of 6.633% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 21975 as it has fallen back reaching only 28855 which still remains 31.30% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 17th reaching 30905 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only four weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 29220. Resistance is to be found starting at 30235.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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4 weeks ago
Silver Tests Key Support, Potential Bullish Reversal Ahead
By: Bruce Powers | June 24, 2024
• Silver awaits a breakout signal as it consolidates near the 50-Day moving average.
Silver further tested a support zone on Monday following last Thursday’s failed bullish breakout above the 50-Day MA and downtrend line. Today’s pullback took silver below Friday’s low briefly before finding support at 29.35. Key trend support of the 50-Day MA continues to be a critical support area. It is currently at 29.16. Despite being at risk of falling below the 50-Day MA, silver has managed to largely stay above it since the June 13 swing low of 28.66 ended an attempt to fall further below the line, at least temporarily.
Silver Sitting in Precarious Position
Silver is sitting in a precarious position on its chart and remains at risk of a deeper retracement. Although support has been holding, another sharp test of recent lows could see support broken and silver head to test lower potential support levels. Last week’s low of 28.93 is a key price level to watch. A decisive drop below that price triggers a weekly bearish signal. If triggered to the downside, the June 13 swing low is then more likely to be tested and possibly exceeded with lower prices being targeted.
Watch Trendlines
Recently, silver has seen either support or resistance near one of the trendlines positioned on the chart. The downtrend line was an area of resistance last week and the uptrend line showed support before then. Also, it marked a support area on Friday and is reflecting an area of support again today. The next lower support zone looks to be from around 29.16 to 28.30.
Breakout Above 30.85 Needed for Bulls
Given its current positioning on the chart, silver would need to get above last week’s high of 30.85 before giving a bullish signal. Until then, it can continue to be range bound if it doesn’t fall below and stay below the 50-Day MA. A subsequent daily close above 30.85 should lead to a test of the recent record high of 32.52, followed by a continuation higher. The next two higher targets would then be 33.17 and 33.80. You can see how 33.80 is part of a larger price zone that goes up to about 34.06.
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4 weeks ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 22, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 29614 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. At present, this market has been rising for 3 months going into June reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 29650 and support forming below at 29555. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 32750, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of June 10th, which has been a move of 7.570%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 5212 made 2502 weeks. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 29905 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of March 18th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 21975 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 7 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 month ago
Summer Silver Fun Run. Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | June 21, 2024
Silver melted up on the summer heat hitting the highest level since June the 6th, Copper popped and dropped on reports of record Chinese copper exports. And while they tried to pull back, weak data out of Europe is causing another potential for an upward run.
Bloomberg reported that “Bonds surged after business activity across Europe encountered an unexpected setback, prompting traders to amp up wagers on monetary easing.
The yield on Germany’s benchmark 10-year bonds fell six basis points, dragging the rate on US Treasuries lower, after manufacturing and services PMI readings for Europe’s two biggest economies fell short of expectations. Markets moved to price a higher chance of two additional rate cuts from the European Central Bank this year, after the separate index for the whole of the euro-zone also dropped more than forecast in June.”
That helped gold breaks up out of consolation as they are waiting for the Chinese central bank to step back into the buy side of the market as a new central bank buyer is raising eyebrows.
Palladium had nice bottoming action and platinum above one thousand for the first time since June the seventh. Still Fed Talk and triple witching are causing some cover the outlook for metals is looking bullish both long term and short term and on pace for a wild summer ride.
Copper was struggling the usual concern was China. Zero Hedge wrote that Cina’s Copper Exports Jump to Record On ‘Export Arbitrage’
They wrote that “Until the Chinese government introduces more robust stimulus packages to counter soft economic data and exporters in the world’s second-largest economy ease up on flooding global markets with copper, prices of the base metal—crucial for power lines and AI data centers—are expected to remain under pressure.
The latest customs data from Bloomberg shows that Chinese exports of unwrought copper and other products in May doubled from last year to roughly 150,000 tons, exceeding the previous high in 2012. This comes as copper prices hit a record high of more than $5.10/lb on COMEX.
Central Banks buying of gold continues to be a major drive. The World Gold Council wrote that “An increasingly complex geopolitical and financial environment is making gold reserves management more relevant than ever. In 2023, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold – the second highest annual purchase in history – following a record high of 1,082 tonnes in 2022.
Following these record numbers, gold continues to be viewed favorably by central banks as a reserve asset.
According to the 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserves (CBGR) survey, which was conducted between 19 February and 30 April 2024 with a total of 70 responses, 29% of central banks respondents intend to increase their gold reserves in the next twelve months, the highest level we have observed since we began this survey in 2018. The planned purchases are chiefly motivated by a desire to rebalance to a more preferred strategic level of gold holdings, domestic gold production, and financial market concerns including higher crisis risks and rising inflation.
China purchases are being watched closely by gold, But not just China. Thailand is going for the Gold
Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Gainesville Coins wrote that “Shedding its long-standing price sensitivity to the price of gold, Thailand is currently a gold buyer driving the price up, just like China
Present changes in the global gold market, in which pricing power is shifting East, could be a precursor to a transformation in the international monetary order. Possibly, trade in the East will settle through a system connecting local CBDCs, while any remaining imbalances are transferred in gold.’
Buying physical gold and silver on pullbacks as well as future strategies the wild ride along with options are probably a very good way to play this market over the next few months.
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1 month ago
Silver Tests Key Support, Potential Bullish Reversal Ahead
By: Bruce Powers | June 17, 2024
• Silver awaits a breakout signal as it consolidates near the 50-Day moving average.
Silver has been testing support around the 50-Day MA for the past several days as it looks to complete a retracement. The pullback low is 28.66 and that is the key support level to watch for further signs of weakness. A decisive drop below that price level puts silver in a more bearish position given that the uptrend will have been broken by then, as well as the 50-Day MA. Each line represents dynamic support for the near-term uptrend. A quick recovery back above 28.66 may negate the bearish implications. Otherwise, the swing low from 26.02 becomes a lower target.
Pullback Low Shows Support
Last week’s low of 28.66 looks to have completed five waves down, thereby opening the door to a possible bottom and subsequent bullish reversal. Not only did the retracement low find support around the 50-Day MA and uptrend line, but it was also a successful test of support around the May 2021 swing high at 28.75. In addition, the low found support around the bottom trendline of a falling channel. There are several technical reasons for 28.66 to hold and lead to a bullish reversal. But there are no signs of it happening yet though.
Upside Breakout Above 29.73
An upside breakout above the three-day high of 29.73 will provide a sign of strength. Note that silver is currently on track to end Monday with an inside day. It would follow an inside day on Friday. Therefore, there is the potential for a double inside day breakout to trigger if today ends as an inside day. Nonetheless, the three-day high should provide a more reliable signal given that silver remains in a downtrend retracement.
Weekly Bull Rally Above 30.26
Last week’s high of 30.26 provides a first upside target for a bounce. However, a rally above 30.26 shows further signs of strength that may lead to a continuation higher as it triggers a bullish weekly breakout. Once there is a daily close above 30.26 silver should be in a stronger position to continue to strengthen. Also of concern is the 20-Day MA at 30.40. It was a key trend indicator for support until silver dropped below it twice, on June 3 and then June 7, before staying below it.
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1 month ago
Silver Continues to See Supportive Action
By: Christopher Lewis | June 17, 2024
• The silver market fell a bit in the early hours on Monday but continues to see buyers come back into the picture, as the markets seem to be trying to find some kind of bottom or floor in this general vicinity.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver initially pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Monday, only to find buyers again as it looks like we are in the midst of some type of bottoming process. If we can rally from here, and it certainly looks like we very well could, breaking above the $30 level almost certainly would bring in quite a bit of FOMO trading, and I think a lot of people would jump into silver at that point.
It’s worth noting that just below, we have the 50-day EMA that a lot of people have paid close attention to. And then again, we have the $28.50 level, which is an area that I think a lot of traders will look at through the prism of being important, mainly due to the fact that it was previous resistance and therefore it should have a lot of market memory attached to it. Because of this, I do think that there is a bit of a floor in this market.
And I think that as long as we stay above that floor, you’re still looking at a buy on the dip type of situation, but it’s going to be very choppy and noisy. Again, if we were to break above the $30 level, that could change in the sense that it could be a major shift in the momentum and perhaps get a lot of people jumping in. But right now, this is a market that looks like it’s trying to find its footing before perhaps bouncing yet again.
Remember, once we broke above the $26 level, we entered an area that typically has a lot of volatility and then eventually some type of horrifically volatile resolution where we go in one direction or the other. In the past, it’s been racing towards $50 only to collapse at that point, so we’ll have to see how this plays out.
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1 month ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 15, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 29472 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Presently, this market has been rising for 3 months going into June reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 29985 and support forming below at 29220. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 20th at 32750, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 29440. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 32750 made 3 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21304 and 35310. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 20th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 29905 made back during the week of April 8th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of March 18th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 21975 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 7 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 month ago
Silver Attempts to Salvage Upward Momentum on Friday
By: Christopher Lewis | June 14, 2024
• The silver market has bounced a bit from the 50-Day EMA on Friday, as the markets have pulled back for some time. This market is one that continues to look at the $28.50 level as important. Also, we have to pay close attention to the $30 level above.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has dropped to the 50-day EMA over the last two trading sessions and now it looks like we are starting to see a little bit of recovery here and perhaps an attempt to get back towards the $30 level. The $30 level of course is a large round psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be paying attention to. So therefore, I think you’ve got a situation where you were just simply looking to try to push this market there.
The $28.50 level is a support level that I think is crucial. It is a resistance barrier from previous. So, I do think a certain amount of market memory comes into the picture here. The pullback is fairly steep, but then again, the shot higher was fairly steep as well. You could make an argument for, you know, some type of Fibonacci retracement either from the bottom, basically lining up with the $28.50 level as the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level, or you can look at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the shot higher when we took off from the $26 level.
That being said, this is a market that I do think favors the upside overall, and we will have to look at it through that prism. I have no interest in shorting silver, at least not until we break down below the $26 level, which at that point we would be challenging the 200 day EMA. So, it remains buy on the dip, but I think it’s very noisy. It’s not something that’s going to be easy to hang on to.
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1 month ago
Silver Bounces Off Support Within a Retracement
By: Bruce Powers | June 10, 2024
• Silver hit a low of 29.12 last Friday, reaching an ABCD pattern target before beginning a bounce from support levels on Monday.
Last Friday silver retraced to a low of 29.12 to reach an extended downside target of 29.15 from a declining ABCD pattern. During Friday’s decline the prior retracement low of 29.38 failed to maintain support, leading to another and more direct test of support around the 50% retracement level of 29.27. The 29.15 price target was derived from a falling ABCD pattern with the CD leg of the pattern extended by 127.2% of the price change seen in the initial AB leg.
Bounce Off Friday Support
Today, Monday, silver held above last week’s support and began a bounce to retrace Friday’s wide range decline. It next heads up into a price range from around 29.97 to 30.05, derived from last Thursday’s low and a previous swing low, respectively. The 20-Day MA is up at 30.61. Given how far silver has fallen relative to its 50-Day MA and uptrend line (low end of rising trend channel), it wouldn’t be surprising to see silver test those lines as support before the current retracement is complete.
50-Day Trend Support at 28.78
The 50-Day MA is currently around 28.78. A little below the uptrend line is a price range from 28.50 to 28.30 consisting of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% extended target for the declining ABCD pattern. Notice that the 50-Day line is now aligned with a prior swing high from May 18 at 28.75.
Since the price of silver rallied back above the 50-Day MA on March 1, the line was successfully tested as support once in early-May. Both lines mark a similar price area and therefore they can be watched together as an area of possible trend support, along with the Fibonacci confluence zone noted above.
Retracement Dominates
On the upside, a definitive breakout above last week’s high of 31.55 would be needed for bullish confirmation at this point. Silver triggered a bullish trend continuation signal for the long-term uptrend a month ago and has further confirmed strength since then. It is anticipated to continue to progress that uptrend once the current retracement is complete. What is more uncertain is the ending dynamic of the retracement prior to a bull reversal that takes silver back to test recent highs.
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1 month ago
Silver Continues to Look Dangerous
By: Christopher Lewis | June 10, 2024
• The silver market bounced a bit in the early hours of Monday, as the market continues to see a lot of questions being asked about the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy going forward.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied a little bit during the early hours on Monday as we continue to see a lot of volatility in what I suspect will continue to be an extraordinarily volatile market. Keep in mind that silver is extraordinarily followed under the best of terms. And at this point in time, we are not in the best of terms when it comes to clarity. The $30 level above should continue to be a little bit of a barrier. So, if we could break above $30, I think that means that the market could really start to take off to the upside.
And with that being the case, breaking above the $30 level allows the market to go looking to the $31.50 level. If we break down from here, then we could have a look at the 50 day EMA, which is just above the $28.50 level, which of course is an area that previously had been significant resistance. So, a bit of market memory should come into play there.
Keep in mind that silver is extraordinarily sensitive to interest rates, and a lot of the selling that we had seen on Friday was due to the jobs number being hotter than anticipated in the United States as people are concerned about whether or not the Federal Reserve will continue to stay tighter for longer, something that’s probably very possible.
That being said, Wednesday has an FOMC meeting, so keep that in mind because it could have a major influence on what happens with silver next. After the beating on Friday, we are still technically bullish. And at this point in time, I think it’s probably a market that you’re looking for buying opportunities but expect a lot of noise for the next couple of days.
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