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15 hours ago
Silver At a Crossroads that Could Swing Either Way
By: Bruce Powers | December 2, 2024
• Silver's next move hinges on key resistance and support levels, with a potential double bottom forming against a backdrop of bearish continuation risks.
Silver is in an interesting technical position currently as it is compressed between several lines showing potential resistance and possible support. One or more of the lines is very close to breaking, which should assist in identifying the next possible direction for the price of silver.
There is a downtrend line that shows similar potential dynamic resistance to the 20-Day MA, which is at 30.85. It should be watched along with the minor daily swing high at 3.90 from Friday. There are two trendlines around recent lows that reflect potential support as well, one rising and one falling. They crossed on November 28.
Potential Double Bottom Established
Last week’s low of 29.64 was the second low recently. It led to a quick bullish recovery that day and into the following day (Friday). A second bottom of a potential double bottom pattern was thereby established. If silver strengthens above Friday’s high and keeps rising, it will have a chance to trigger the double bottom pattern.
An upside breakout is triggered on a rally above the neckline at 31.54. Notice that the 50-Day MA, which also marks a pivot level, is at 31.76 currently, slightly above the neckline. Another view of the current price range can be seen in the weekly chart (not shown), as it shows a three-week high at 31.54 and a low at 29.64.
Retaining Support
When considering the bigger picture, following a trend high of 34.87 on October 22, silver began to retrace its previous advance. That high looks to have completed a rising five-wave Elliott Wave structure. Support was subsequently seen at 29.68 on November 14 and last Friday at 29.64. Last Friday was a retest of support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Further, support has been seen around the trendline at the top of the prior retracement channel that started from top of wave-3 at 32.52. In other words, that is a full cycle back to prior trendline resistance that marked a bullish breakout price level.
Break Below 29.64 Could Lead Lower
Regardless of the above bullish scenario, a decisive drop through 29.64 will indicate a possible continuation of the bearish trend. Potential support then looks to be in a range from around 29.24, the 78.6% retracement, and the 200-Day MA, now at 29.15. Lower prices could also be in the works if the weekly lows fail to hold as support.
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3 days ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 30, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31108 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30930 and overhead resistance forming above at 31470. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 6.033%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 30940. Resistance is to be found starting at 33260. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 week ago
Silver Bearish Engulfing Pattern Signals Weakness
By: Bruce Powers | November 25, 2024
• Resistance near the 20-Day MA and bearish momentum challenge silver's recovery, with key support at 29.68 aligning with Fibonacci and trendline levels.
Silver formed a one-day bearish engulfing pattern on Monday as sellers took control following a short pop to a four-day high of 31.48 earlier in the session. Resistance for the day was seen a little below the 20-Day MA (purple), now at 31.55. The subsequent decline followed a test of resistance around the 20-Day line is bearish behavior. And bearish sentiment will likely be confirmed with a daily close today below Friday’s low of 30.74.
Other bearish supporting evidence was recently indicated by the 20-Day MA crossing below the 50-Day MA (orange). Further, silver has been below resistance of the 50-Day line for 11 days after being above it previously. Although, recent daily highs failed to rise to the 50-Day line, but since it is close to the 20-Day line today’s bearish price action can also be considered a successful test of resistance at the 50-Day line.
Successful Test of 20-Day MA Resistance is Bearish
While silver is finding resistance just below both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs, it has been seeing support recently around the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 29.68, an internal uptrend line, and a downtrend line. The bottom of the range is at the most recent swing low of 29.68, which matches the 61.8% price level. Therefore, until there is a decline below 29.68, silver has the potential to attempt to strengthen. However, a decisive decline below 29.68 will likely see silver retrace to the 78.6% level at 29.24, or the 200-Day MA at 28.96. Declines below either of the trendlines show weakening.
200-Day MA at 28.97 is Key Level
The long-term trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, has marked a dynamic support for the uptrend since it was reclaimed on March 4. Subsequently, a successful test of support at the 200-Day line was completed at the early-August swing low of 26.47. If the 200-Day line is tested again, it be the second test of the line as support since it was reclaimed.
Since the decline started towards the 200-Day line began from the 34.87 trend high that was hit about a month ago, there is a good chance it will mark support again. In other words, since downward momentum began from the peak, by the time the 200-Day line is reached, if it is to be reached, selling pressure may have diminished by then.
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1 week ago
Gold & Silver Still Near Ground Floor Opportunity
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne | November 25, 2024
Gold broke out from a 13-year cup and handle pattern earlier this year to a new all-time high and advanced to $2800/oz.
Silver broke out from 4-year resistance and recently reached an 11-year high, touching $35/oz.
However, the ongoing secular bull market in US Stocks and the emerging bubble in cryptocurrency have stolen its shine.
In nominal terms, Gold and Silver have made higher highs and are in a bull market.
But in real terms, Gold and Silver have barely moved off the ground floor.
Gold and Silver have yet to make progress against the conventional investment portfolio (the 60/40 portfolio) in the last 6 years.
They have yet to make a higher high since the secular bear market began at the end of 2011.
Near the end of 2011, the share of Gold ETFs against all ETF assets was 8%.
A few months ago, the share was barely 1%.
The last two secular bull markets in Gold peaked with Gold backing well over 100% of the monetary base. The legal mandate under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was 40% backing.
Backing has increased from an all-time low of 7% a few years ago to 12.4% today. Reaching the 2008 peak of nearly 30% would put the Gold price at almost $6,500/oz.
Gold and Silver have advanced quite a bit in recent years but remain cheap in real terms.
Relative to the stock market and the 60/40 portfolio especially, Gold and Silver remain on ground floor territory. The same can be said for their allocation relative to equities and their value against the monetary base.
The secular bull market in precious metals has barely started.
When Gold begins to outperform the 60/40 portfolio and stock market in earnest, Gold and precious metals will have moved beyond the ground floor.
Until then, one can position in quality junior companies that will lead the next leg higher.
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1 week ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 23, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31338 and is trading up about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Currently, this market has been rising for 2 months going into November reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 29750 yet it is trading below last month's close of 32796.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 31485 and support forming below at 31125. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 6.268%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in February.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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2 weeks ago
Silver Has a Stable Week
By: Christopher Lewis | November 22, 2024
• The silver market is essentially stable at this point. It is mildly positive, but at the end of the day, it is a market that is still looking for its momentum to take off again. With this, I think that the effect of gold rallying will eventually catch on here as well.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The silver market has rallied a bit during the course of the week as the $30 level has offered significant support. The $30 level of course is a large round psychologically significant important number that we’ve been paying attention to for some time. So, I just don’t see a situation where you would have any need whatsoever to short this market anytime soon as it has been so important to stay above this $30 level and we have in fact done so.
Even if we were to break down below there, the 50-week EMA sits just about a dollar underneath. We’ve been in an uptrend for some time, and of course there are a lot of concerns around the world about protecting wealth, and while silver isn’t necessarily the same thing as gold, it does tend to move in the same general direction, and gold is absolutely on fire right now, so I think gold will end up dragging silver higher, as it will often do. This is a correlation trade more than anything else at this point.
Speaking of higher, I suspect that silver is probably going to try to target the $35 level, which was where we struggled at previously. I have no interest in shorting this market, at least not at the moment, and I do think that silver continues to be a mildly bullish market, basically just riding the coattails of gold, which of course, as I said previously, has been on fire.
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2 weeks ago
Silver Continues to Bounce
By: Christopher Lewis | November 19, 2024
• The silver market bounced again in the early hours of the Tuesday session, as we continue to see the momentum from the bounce at the crucial $30 level play a big part. The markets all continue to see a lot of traders get involved, as the gold market has been leading the way, with silver following.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market rallied a bit during the early hours of Tuesday and at this point in time is threatening the 50 day EMA. If the market were to continue going higher, I don’t see much stopping it from going to the $32 level, and then possibly even as high as $35. Underneath current trading conditions are still supportive, with the $30 level being a massive support level, followed by the 200 day EMA. Keep in mind that silver is extraordinarily volatile, so it’s not a huge surprise to see that we have bounced here, nor would it be a huge surprise to see a little bit of a pullback.
That being said, gold has been rallying and that typically will drag silver right along with it. So, at this point in time, it looks like we are in fact trying to continue the overall uptrend in what has been a pretty bullish asset since March of this year. If we were to somehow break above the $35 level, and I don’t expect that to happen in the short term, that could lead to much bigger things.
Silver, of course, is a bigger contract position size-wise than the gold market. So, make sure you have that settled before you put any money to work. If we were to turn around and break down below the 200 day EMA, which is near the $29 level, that could change a lot of things. But right now, it looks like silver is trying to recover and continue the overall uptrend.
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2 weeks ago
Silver Counter-Trend Rally Eyes 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | November 18, 2024
• Silver rebounds strongly, reaching a five-day high as it targets key resistance levels, with buyers eyeing 50-Day and 20-Day moving averages.
Silver triggered a bullish reversal on Monday, as it rallied to a five-day high of 32.27 before stalling. The five-day high is at 31.15 and silver is currently trading around that price level. A daily close above that high would provide an additional piece of evidence supporting a continuation of the bounce into higher potential resistance levels. Nonetheless, silver is on track to close strong, in the top third of the day’s trading range. A strong close signifies improving demand that remains in control till the close, and therefore possibly longer.
Decisive Bull Hammer Reversal
A false breakout of a bullish hammer candlestick pattern potential bottom occurred last Friday as the day ended near the lows of the day after an earlier daily upside breakout triggered above Thursday’s high. Silver rebounded strongly and is set to complete a bullish daily pattern reflected in the long green body. This puts silver in sight of a test of possible resistance around the 50-Day MA, now at 31.67. It could get there quickly. A reclaim of the 50-Day line shows the 20-Day MA around 32.31 as the next higher target. Also, watch the May swing high at 32.52 if the 20-Day line is approached.
Targets 31.67 and 32.31
Today looks to be the beginning of a counter-trend rally following the breakdown of key price levels over the past couple of weeks. Therefore, the expectation is for an eventual turnback down once higher resistance levels are tested. However, support seen last week at 29.68 has a chance of holding. It was a test of support around the declining trendline at the top of a trend channel. And it was further indicated by finding support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 29.67. But given the additional signs of weakness seen in the drop below both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs, a recovery doesn’t look like it would proceed without some up and down movement.
Short-term Weakness Likely to See Buyers
For now, short-term weakness seems likely to see continued support and signs of demand. As the counter-trend rally progresses it should start to provide clues as to important price levels and patterns to watch for clearer signs of demand.
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2 weeks ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 16, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 30432 and is trading up about 26% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Immediately, this market has been rising for 2 months going into November reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 29750 yet it is trading below last month's close of 32796.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 30570 and support forming below at 30280. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 30940. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen as the stochastics are beginning to flatten out since the previous low at 26505 made 14 weeks Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in February.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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3 weeks ago
Silver Continues to Look For Momentum to The Upside
By: Christopher Lewis | November 13, 2024
• The silver continues to see a lot of interest from traders, as the $30 level has offered a bit of support over the last 48 hours. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index numbers have come and gone, with readings being as expected, and now we continue to see value hunting.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has rallied a little bit during the early hours on Wednesday, and now that we have the consumer price index numbers coming out of the United States basically as expected, I think the market is breathing a sigh of relief and silver is starting to gain as a result. We do have the 50-day EMA sitting just above that could cause a little bit of resistance, but ultimately, I think that is but a minor footnote when it comes to what happens next. Over the longer term, I fully anticipate that this market will go looking to much higher levels, perhaps to the $32.50 level.
That’s an area that’s been important multiple times, and therefore it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see this market react to that. Anything above the $32.50 level then opens up the possibility of going all the way back to the swing high, which is at the $35 level. Keep in mind that silver is an extraordinarily volatile contract under the best of circumstances, and it is bigger than gold, so don’t trade it with a massive position size.
I have seen a lot of retail traders wipe their accounts out trading silver thinking it behaves exactly the same as gold. It really doesn’t. There are other fundamentals you have to think of, although some do overlap, such as interest rates. Silver is an industrial metal, so we’ll have to see how that comes into play, but really at this point in time, I think the most important thing to notice is that we have the $30 level offering support, and it does look like it’s going to hold.
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3 weeks ago
Silver Correction Deepens; Key Levels for Support
By: Bruce Powers | November 11, 2024
• Silver declines to 30.42, nearing critical support zones. Elliott Wave analysis marks a top and moving averages shows further weakness.
Silver fell on Monday to a new pullback low of 30.42 before finding at least temporary support. That low was 4.45 points or 12.8% below the recent peak of 34.87. It was also slightly below the 50% retracement at 30.67 of the full swing starting from the August swing low, and right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the internal upswing.
Trading remains near the lows of the day at the time of this writing, and silver will likely close the day’s trading session below last week’s low of 30.83. And it will likely close at its lowest daily closing price in 21 trading days.
Next Support at Top Channel Line?
It looks like silver is heading next to test support around the top of a falling parallel trend channel. The top channel line identifies a potential support zone along with a prior interim swing low at 30.12. For now, 30.12 can be used as a proxy for the channel line.
If the top line fails to hold as support, the 61.8% retracement of the larger advance is at 29.67, along with a rising trend line. The 78.6% retracement level is at 29.24. However, if that level is reached it means that silver has fallen below both the top declining channel line and an internal rising trendline that begins from the February swing low.
Completed Five Wave Structures
Basic Elliott Wave analysis shows the recent top of 34.87 may have completed five waves of a rising impulse wave beginning from the September 2022 lows. Further, there is a smaller five wave price structure starting from the more recent August swing low at 26.47 that may have completed as well. Nonetheless, silver remains in a larger up trending price structure if it can stay above the 200-Day MA (blue), which is now at 28.56. Notice that the 200-Day line is below the rising internal trendline.
20-Day Confirmed Weakness, Crossing Below 50-Day MA
During the current decline both the 50-Day MA and small internal rising trendline failed to show support as silver fell hard through those levels last Wednesday. Bearish sentiment was subsequently confirmed as the 20-Day MA fell below the 50-Day line after being largely above it since August 19. Silver is clearly in a correction that may take a little time to work through given the decisive decline below the 50-Day line. Nevertheless, going forward, price behavior should provide clues as to when the environment is beginning to change towards a more bullish tone.
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3 weeks ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 9, 2024
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 31650.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 32460. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 35070 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 26347 and 36065. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 30940. Additional support is to be found at 31155. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in February.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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4 weeks ago
Silver Continues to See Supportive Action on Thursday
By: Christopher Lewis | November 7, 2024
• The silver market was slightly bullish on Thursday, as the market waits for the FOMC interest rate decision. This of course will have a lot of influence on what happens next.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market bounced slightly during the early hours on Thursday as traders continue to pay close attention to interest rates, geopolitics, and of course the fact that we have the Federal Reserve later in the day. With this being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that may end up showing signs of upward volatility as we get closer to the interest rate decision.
But eventually, I think the same reasons that we rallied before are still very much in play, not the least of which would be the fact that the United States is going to spend a lot. That debases the dollar with plenty of fiat currency being printed, some people will run to the precious metal sector. Furthermore, we still have plenty of geopolitical issues out there to worry about, so let us not forget that. And ultimately, I think what you have is a situation where traders will eventually head back to the overall long-term trade they had been in for a while.
Anyway, so once we clear the $32.50 level, I think it opens up the possibility of a move to the $35 level, although it might take a minute or two to get there. I do think that is ultimately what we are, in fact, going to try to do. So, with that being the case, I am bullish, but I’m not willing to jump in with a huge amount of money because silver of course is very volatile. This is a situation where we should continue what we have seen previously.
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4 weeks ago
Silver Hovers Around 20-Day Support Amid Bearish Signals
By: Bruce Powers | November 4, 2024
• Silver continues to test support around the 20-Day MA, as recent closes below key levels suggest a risk of further downside before a potential rebound.
Once again silver is flirting with potential support around the 20-Day MA. On Monday it fell to a new pullback low of 32.29 before finding support and bouncing intraday. Nonetheless, silver is in a precarious position technically as it closed below the 20-Day MA on Friday and will likely do so again today.
But it is not only the relationship to the 20-Day line that is of concern. The 50% retracement at 32.49 failed to retain support today and Friday the close was below it. Moreover, natural gas is also testing support around the internal uptrend line. Natural gas traded a little below it earlier today.
Next Lower Target is the 61.8% Retracement at 31.93
Natural gas traded briefly below the 20-Day MA on the prior test of test of the line earlier in October. It may do so again. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is a little lower at 31.93. If natural gas falls below today’s low of 32.29 it may head to the 61.8% price zone. A little lower is the 50-Day MA at 31.20. Also, keep an eye on the price zone around the most recent swing low at 30.12. It is part of the price structure of the uptrend that began from the August swing low, and therefore is potentially significant as a drop below it would violate the trend structure.
Downward Pressure Dominates
Although natural gas is in an area where it might see support that leads to a bullish reversal, there are no signs of it currently. Rather, there are additional short-term bearish signs. Notice the candlestick tail from Friday due to the close in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Today is set to leave a similar one-day bearish pattern. It shows sellers dominating trading activity in the later part of the trading session.
Short-term Strength Above 32.88
Once silver finds support in the pullback that leads to a bullish reversal, it can challenge the recent high of 34.87 and attempt to reach higher targets. For now, a rise above today’s high of 32.88 shows short-term strength and could be the beginning of an advance. A subsequent rise above Friday’s high of 33.12 will then show further strength.
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4 weeks ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 2, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 32681 and is trading up about 35% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 months going into November reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 33020 and support forming below at 32035. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 33260. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 35070 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 26096 and 35722. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 21st has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 26th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in February.
Critical support still underlies this market at 27440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1 month ago
Silver Bullish Potential on Advance Above 34.02
By: Bruce Powers | October 28, 2024
• Silver holds strong at a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with buyers eyeing a breakout above $34.02 for potential bullish continuation beyond recent highs.
Silver consolidated on Monday as it is on track to close as an inside day. A new trend high of 34.87 was reached last week before silver pulled back. So far, the pullback found support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement with a low of 33.09 from Friday. If silver can rally from there and break out above Friday’s high of 34.02 it will be in a strong bullish position to challenge and likely exceed the recent high. That would signal the completion of a minimum retracement of 38.2%, which reflects relatively strong demand.
Bullish Hammer Candle Sets Up
Notice that that Friday candlestick pattern takes the form of a bullish hammer, providing an additional piece of evidence for a possible continuation of the rally. But a trigger above Friday’s high is needed first. Strong demand is indicated if a bull trend continues following a relatively shallow 38.2% retracement, as it reflects strong underlying demand. Buyers don’t want to wait for lower prices and risk missing out on the next swing higher.
Next Higher Target Begins at 35.13
A decisive rally above 34.02 will put silver in position to test resistance around the recent high of 34.87. If it is exceeded there is a potential resistance zone close by from 35.13 to 35.38. That price range begins with the 200% extended target (D) for a rising ABCD pattern (purple). It includes a long-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 35.23.
That measurement is the extended retracement of the downswing that began from the April 2011 peak at 49.81. The target range ends with the completion of a small ascending ABCD pattern (not shown). Given the long-term nature of the 35.23 price level, it should be given special attention. If resistance is seen it could last for a little while, and a breakout signals likely higher prices in the near-term.
Support Indicated at 33.09
On the downside, a drop below Friday’s low of 33.09 signals a deeper pullback. Lower support looks to be around confluence of several indicators near a range of 32.49 to 32.31. Those prices consist of the 50% retracement and 20-Day MA, respectively. Subsequently, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 31.93 and support may be seen there. Also, keep an eye on the internal uptrend line for possible support.
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1 month ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 26, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 33779 and is trading up about 40% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into October reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 35070 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28010. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 33020.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 32020 and overhead resistance forming above at 33970. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 35070, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 35070 to 33260. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 35070 made 0 week ago. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 21st reaching 35070 has exceeded the previous high of 33225 made back during the week of September 30th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 28720 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1 month ago
Silver Price Forecast: Breakout Targets $38.65
By: Christopher Aaron | October 25, 2024
Silver has just broken higher out of a short-term consolidation. This price behavior results in a target of $38.65, a 16% anticipated gain for silver over the months ahead. For investors seeking increased profit above this figure, silver miners have recently begun to provide positive leverage above and beyond the bullion price.
Silver’s Breakout
Silver’s breakout is clear to see on the chart below:
Note the five-month cup consolidation below the $32.50 figure (black dashed line). This consolidation began in May, and has just recently broken upward to trigger the pattern.
In the case of silver, the consolidation had an amplitude of $6.15 below the breakout point. We can reasonably now expect that $6.15 worth of short-sellers and hedgers will be incentivized to cover those positions. Silver thus has a reasonable target of $6.15 + $32.50, yielding a target of $38.65 for the coming months.
Timing the Target
We now need to place silver’s $38.65 target into the visible pattern boundaries in order to project an anticipated timeline for the advance.
Note the wedge-like pattern (blue dashed lines) that is forming in the silver market, with both sellers and buyers emerging at higher intervals since 2022. When we place the amplitude target of $38.65 within the visible pattern, we see that silver should be expected to achieve its target no later than Q2 – Q3 of 2025.
Invalidation Point
We must always identify a point at which we observe that something has changed in the market, and that a target has been invalidated. In the case of silver above, should the breakout point of $32.50 fail to act as support for at least two days over the coming weeks, it would suggest that the breakout has failed. In other words, a new swath of sellers would have emerged to overpower the short-coverers and hedge-closers. While this scenario is unlikely, we must always identify the point at which it would occur on the chart.
In technical analysis, breakouts are considered valid until proven otherwise. We thus maintain the $38.65 target assuming the market does not close back below $32.50 for multiple daily closes.
Leverage in Silver Miners
An advance from the current silver price of $33.30 to the $38.65 target will equate to a 16% increase in the price of silver over the coming months.
For those investors seeking profits above and beyond this 16% figure, we have recently begun to observe positive leverage within the silver mining complex.
Below is the price of silver since the August lows, juxtaposed to a silver mining company (Silver Miner “X”) that we have recently purchased. Note that as silver itself is higher by 22% from the August lows, Silver Miner “X” is higher by 58%, or nearly triple the gain of silver bullion.
While we do not give away the names of the silver mining companies we invest in for free, investors who would like to achieve these types of gains may find more on our premium research available at www.iGoldAdvisor.com
Takeaway on Silver
The silver market has just triggered a breakout which yields an official target of $38.65 over the months ahead. This will represent a 16% gain above the current price for spot silver and bullion.
For those investors who would like to achieve higher gains, silver miners have recently begun to show positive leverage to the underlying bullion price.
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1 month ago
Silver Continues to See Strength on Thursday
By: Christopher Lewis | October 24, 2024
• The silver market continues to see buyers on Thursday, as we are trying to continue the overall uptrend at this point in time.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market rallied just a bit during the early hours on Thursday as the silver market is trying to get back some of that momentum that it had previously. That being said, let’s be honest here, silver had gotten far too ahead of itself, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we have a little bit of a pullback like we did over the last 24 hours. Whether or not that sticks remains to be seen, but even if we do fall from here, I think there’s plenty of support down at the $32.50 level.
The $32.50 level is an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to, as it was the previous swing high, so therefore one would have to assume there’s a certain amount of market memory involved. The 50-day EMA is also racing towards that area, so it all kind of comes together for a floor in the market. Silver, of course, is highly sensitive to interest rates, and interest rates have been all over the place, but we also have a lot of geopolitical concerns, and of course we have central banks around the world cutting rates.
So that does have a little bit of an effect here. Furthermore, you have to keep an eye on the industrial demand side of silver, as it is a little bit different than gold in that aspect. And of course, this is a much more volatile contract and a bigger one. So, you have to be cautious with your position size. Nonetheless, this all points to higher pricing. And I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we reach the $35 level.
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1 month ago
Silver Continues to Look Strong Despite Pullback
By: Christopher Lewis | October 23, 2024
• The silver market continues to see a lot of bullish pressure overall, as the Wednesday session looks as if we could pullback – only to offer value. This is a strong sign that the market will continue to look for “cheap ounces” to take advantage of.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has pulled back just a little bit during the early hours on Wednesday as we are clearly overbought. That being said, this is a market that is likely to continue going higher over the longer term, but we do need to find some type of value.
Quite frankly, I would like to see the market pull back to at least $33.75 before I get involved, but the question now of course is whether or not we can even get there. The one thing that I won’t be doing is short selling the silver market because quite frankly, it is far too strong, and it will more than likely be a market that continues to see a lot of interest by the trading community on the whole.
In general, I do believe that the $32.50 level is going to continue to be important. So, if we do pull back from here, I think we’ve got a situation where this is an area that we should see a lot of market memory as it was previously a massive top in the market. This assumes that we even fall that far. Overall, I think we’ve got a situation where we do eventually go looking to the $35 level, but this is a very dangerous market to get overly aggressive in, and I certainly don’t like chasing FOMO in this market. Nonetheless, again, if you are patient enough, you should find some value in the next few days that you can take advantage of.
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1 month ago
Silver Continues to Skyrocket
By: Christopher Lewis | October 22, 2024
• The silver market has been on fire over the last few days, as we have seen the market break hard above the crucial $32.50 level. This move is very strong, and likely going to offer a pullback sooner or later.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has shot straight up in the air during the trading session on Tuesday as we have broken above the shooting star for Monday, which of course is a very bullish sign. Silver has been on fire over the last couple of days. And I think this is a scenario where people are waiting and desperately trying to get into this market. So, I do think that a short-term pullback is more likely than not going to be looked at as an opportunity. It’s also worth noting that the $32.50 level is an area that previously had been resistant.
So, the market breaking above there is not surprisingly very bullish. All things being equal, the market will more likely than not go looking to the $35 level and at this point we might even get there during the trading session on Tuesday. If not, it wouldn’t surprise me to get there by Wednesday. The problem of course is that we are getting rapidly overstretched so it’s almost impossible to chase this market.
A short-term pullback at this point in time could drop all the way down to the $32.50 level, but there are some other areas that you might want to pay attention to. For example, the $33.70 level could be supportive also. Either way, this is a market that has gotten way too ahead of itself, so you are either long of silver and the breakout or shortly afterwards, or you’re just sitting here waiting for value to reappear because you’re not going to find it at the top of a move like this.
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1 month ago
Silver Hits New High Amid Bullish Trend, Faces Resistance Ahead
By: Bruce Powers | October 21, 2024
• Silver surged to a new high of 34.27, but resistance at 35.05-35.23 may limit gains as the rally faces potential pullback to support levels.
Silver rallied to a new trend high of 34.27 on Monday before intraday weakness took hold. Friday’s advance triggered a bull trend continuation signal on a rally above 32.96 and today’s gains further confirm the breakout. However, given intraday weakness, silver may close in a weak position, in the lower third of the day’s trading range and with a shooting star candlestick pattern.
Elliott Wave Points to 35.05
Adding simple Elliott Wave analysis to the current uptrend shows silver in a likely fifth wave position with the current rally. Waves are shown on the chart in purple with a target from the fifth wave around 35.05. That is assuming the fifth wave matches the first. Nonetheless, it provides another price level to watch the reaction. Also, notice that there is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 35.23, very close to the 35.05 target. Therefore, the 35.05 to 35.23 target zone looks like it has a good chance of being reached before the rally completes.
127.2% Extension Hit
Nonetheless, given today’s price behavior silver may pullback before continuing its ascent. Today’s high reached an area of potential resistance and so far, silver is seeing signs of resistance. A 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline from the May swing high was hit today at 34.14. A pullback could fall to test support around the prior resistance area of 32.96. Then, further down, is the prior swing high at 32.51. Critical to the bull advance is the 20-Day MA at 31.76. Notice that Friday’s new high breakout began from a successful test of support around the 20-Day line earlier in the day.
Large Bull Flag Points to 41.70
There is upside potential for silver. The bigger picture on silver shows a large bull flag pattern that began from the 2020 lows. A sustained breakout was indicated around early-March this year and it was followed by an accelerated advance. If the flag pattern continues to progress it shows a potential target for silver at around 41.70. This means that pullbacks will likely continue to be used by investors and traders to enter or add to positions, providing support for prices.
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1 month ago
The Silver Squeeze is real. Historically, precious metals like silver thrive on uncertainty—and with the U.S. political landscape heating up, it's no wonder we're seeing a rally
By: TrendSpider | October 19, 2024
• The Silver Squeeze is real. $SLV
Historically, precious metals like silver thrive on uncertainty—and with the U.S. political landscape heating up, it's no wonder we're seeing a rally.
Highest one-day volume since May.
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1 month ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 19, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 33234 and is trading up about 37% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. As of now, this market has been rising for this month going into October reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33970 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28010. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 33020.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 32145.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 14th at 33970, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 33970 to 30940. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 33970 made 0 week ago. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of October 14th reaching 33970 has exceeded the previous high of 30545 made back during the week of August 26th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 28720 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2 months ago
Silver Continues to Look Supported on Thursday
By: Christopher Lewis | October 17, 2024
• The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but at the end of the day – this is a market that is still bullish overall. The silver market, of course, is going to remain attentive to the idea of central banks cutting rates, and of course the geopolitical issues. Furthermore, we have to keep an idea in the back of our heads that silver is an industrial metal as well.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of back and forth choppy behavior. In general, this is a market that I think is paying very close attention to the $32.50 level, an area that previously had been very difficult to break above, and now I think we are trying to build up the necessary momentum to finally do that.
Keep in mind that traders have a lot to think about when it comes to silver, not the least of which, of course, would be interest rates around the world dropping. So that does put a little bit of a floor under silver, but at the same time, the market also looks at the industrial use case scenario of silver as it’s very highly sought after in a lot of green technologies.
Short-term pullbacks at this point in time, I do think have plenty of supporters underneath and I’m especially interested in the $30 level, which has now proven itself to be both support and resistance multiple times. Beyond that, the 50-day EMA sits at roughly $30.33 and is rising, so I think that also adds a little bit of validity to a potential floor.
On a daily close above the $32.50 level, I suspect at that point in time, silver might go looking toward the $35 level eventually. Either way, I don’t really have a scenario in which I would get short of silver anytime soon.
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2 months ago
Silver Continues to Look Strong on Wednesday
By: Christopher Lewis | October 16, 2024
• The silver market was bullish during the early hours of Wednesday, as the market continues to look to the $32.50 level as a target, as well as a barrier. This is a market that will continue to be very noisy, and dangerous to say the least.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market rallied just a bit during the early hours on Wednesday as it looks like we are going to continue to try to drive higher, perhaps looking to the $32.50 level. The $32.50 level, of course, is an area that has been significant resistance a couple of times already. So, I do think that there’s a lot of interest in it.
If we can break above the $32.50 level on a daily close, then I think you’ve got a real shot at the market taking off to the upside and perhaps trying to get to the $35 level over the longer term. All things being equal, a short-term pullback at this point in time makes quite a bit of sense because that gives you more value and therefore people will jump in and try to take advantage of cheap ounces.
The 50-day EMA sits right around the $30.50 level. Below there we have the $30 level, which of course is a large round psychological figure and an area that we’ve seen a lot of noise at previously. Keep in mind that silver will move based on interest rates dropping and of course the US dollar falling.
There are also some effects when it comes to geopolitics because when they get a little less stable, then precious metals do okay. It’s also worth noting that silver is also an industrial metal, so it does have that component as well to a lesser point, which causes some noise.
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2 months ago
Silver Continues to See Support Underneath
By: Christopher Lewis | October 15, 2024
• The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as the market is looking to cement some kind of momentum. At this point, the market is simply trying to fund buyers and a reason to finally break above the $32.50 level.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially fell a bit during the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of volatility and chopping in this market. When I look at the chart, the 50 day EMA stands out right away at the $30.25 level. And then again, we have the $30 level, which in and of itself is going to be thought of as a potential support level, not only due to previous action, but the fact that there are a lot of psychological and possibly options barriers in that region. Short-term pullbacks, I think, offer value that traders will be looking to pick up a little bit on the way of cheap ounces.
To the upside, the $32.50 level is a major resistance barrier that we need to pay attention to because if we could break above there, then it allows the market to continue much higher. It would be the beginning of the next leg to the upside. It would not surprise me at all to see the market break out like that, but I think we have a lot of work to do for that to happen.
A lot of digestion of gains, and of course we would need some type of fundamental reason to have people chasing precious metals at that point in time. I think probably the way this works out is gold will lead the way higher and silver will just simply get dragged along with it, because in the current environment, it might be a bit difficult to think that we have a situation where the industrial part of the equation for silver will be the main driver.
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2 months ago
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 12, 2024
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high quite significantly by 1.13%. The broader rally has peaked with the last high established at 33225 back on 10/04 5 days ago. We did elect 3 Bearish Reversals from this high. Clearly, this high was formed after a rally of 20 days.
Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 4.17% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 32345, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Moreover, a lower opening and a penetration of today's low of 31260 with a closing beneath this level would suggest today's high will stand temporarily.
Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 31927 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 31260 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30960 and overhead resistance forming above at 32020. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 30th at 33225, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 33225 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 24279 and 35389. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of September 30th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 30545 made back during the week of August 26th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of July 8th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 26505 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 30035. Additional support is to be found at 28010. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 28720 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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