DiscoverGold
1 hour ago
Gold Bearish Reversal Pattern Points to Downward Pressure
By: Bruce Powers | August 6, 2024
• Gold trades within a rising trend channel, testing key supports while resistance remains at 2,418; potential downside targets include 2,347 and 2,312.
Gold traded inside day on Tuesday following a drop that successfully tested support at the 50-Day MA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone earlier in trading session. Resistance was seen at today’s high of 2,418, which was a successful test of resistance at the 20-Day MA. Gold is on track to close lower for the day and in the bottom third of the day’s trading range. Further tests of support around the 50-Day MA are possible and a breakdown below the 50-Day line remains a risk.
Stuck Within Consolidation Channel
Since May gold has been tracing out a rising trend channel during a consolidation phase that followed an initial 22.5% rally. The latest attempt to breakout to the upside was met with resistance at 2,478 (C) thereby generating a lower swing high. That swing high marks the end of the BC leg of a falling ABCD pattern. The first downside target for the pattern is 2,347.
However, since that target is close to the lower boundary of the trend channel, it looks likely that it may be tested as support before the bearish correction is complete. The lower line is joined by an uptrend line drawn from the October swing low. Moreover, the 127.2% Fibonacci extended target from the ABCD pattern completes at 2,312. It provides a specific price that can be watched along with viewing the trendlines.
Lower Price at Risk of Being Tested as Support
A rising trend channel can have risk like that of a rising wedge. The rising wedge is a bearish continuation or reversal pattern, depending on where it forms within the larger pattern. Similarly, there is the potential for a rising channel to break down instead of up. As the equity markets have begun to retrace the prior advance with higher conviction, gold has remained relatively strong, above its 50-Day line and still contained within the rising trend channel pattern.
Therefore, although it may not break down from the channel, it does remain at risk of testing the lower area of the channel as support. Further, gold triggered a bearish weekly reversal during Monday’s selloff as it fell below last week’s low of 2,478. A daily close below that price level confirms the reversal.
Gold Turns Short-term Bullish Above 2,418
On the upside, a bullish daily signal will be triggered on a rise above today’s high of 2,418. That would also put gold back above its 20-Day line and open the door to a test of the 2,478-swing high.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 3, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 246.6k, down 26.5k.
On April 12th, gold hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. This was eclipsed on May 20th, as the yellow metal ticked $2,454 before once again coming under pressure. All along, bids showed up at $2,300. Then on July 17th, gold tagged $2,488; this was a breakout that came after three months of sideways move, but unfortunately for gold bugs the metal immediately came under pressure.
Once again, gold hit a new intraday high of $2,523 this Friday, but only to close at $2,470/ounce. If this week’s breakout has legs to stand on, there should be bids appearing, as Friday’s low of $2,453 essentially amounts to a breakout retest.
Non-commercials have slightly cut back their net longs the last two weeks but continue to have a sizable exposure.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 3, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 24698 and is trading up about 19% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. As of now, this market has been rising for 9 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 25225 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 23274. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 24730.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 24583 and overhead resistance forming above at 24745. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 29th at 25225, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 25225 to 24145. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 25225. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 24340 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 20 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 22480 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Gold Continues to See Bullish Pressures
By: Christopher Lewis | August 2, 2024
• The gold market has rallied quite hard to the upside in the past week, as we have seen a lot of traders pile into this market. The jobs number shocked the markets, with it missing by quite a bit. At this point, it looks like safety is the main goal here.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold market has had a very strong week to the upside and as a result it looks like we are trying to blow out through the top. All things being equal, the spot market will be paying special attention to the $2,500 level but it is worth noting that the futures market has already broken beyond that. So, in other words, futures traders believe that this market is going higher in the future.
Short-term pullbacks more likely than not will continue to be buying opportunities and therefore I think you have to look at this as a market that you simply cannot short. With the jobs report on Friday missing, the market has now yet another reason to think that the Federal Reserve might be cutting rates. And if they do, then the idea of protecting your wealth with gold becomes a lot more affordable. Furthermore, we have plenty of geopolitical issues out there that should continue to drive gold higher.
So, with all of that being said, I just don’t have any interest in shorting this market. Underneath, we have the $2,400 level as a massive support level. And of course, we have a trend line worth paying attention to as well. At this juncture, this is a market that looks very positive to me, but it is also going to be very noisy as traders simply seem like they don’t know what to do with most assets, although gold certainly seems to be a favored one.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
5 days ago
Gold Faces Resistance at New Rally High of 2,462
By: Bruce Powers | August 1, 2024
• Gold reached 2,462 but faced resistance; a deeper pullback to 2,407 or 2,362 is possible before testing the record high of 2,484.
Gold reached a new rally high of 2,462 on Thursday, where it encountered resistance that turned it back down. It is on track to possibly close with a bearish shooting start candlestick pattern. Today’s high exceeded the 2,450-resistance zone from the May swing high, but it could not retain strength. This will likely put gold at risk of a deeper pullback before testing the 2,484-record high. The low for the day at the time of this writing was 2,430, and gold may fall further today as it continues to trade near the lows of the day.
Break of 2,430 Support Points Lower
A decline below today’s low of 2,430 triggers a likely deeper pullback. The first lower target would be around the 20-Day MA at 2,407. That line was recognized as resistance last Friday and this Monday before gold broke out above the line on Tuesday. And it closed above the line thereby confirming the bullish move.
So, it would make sense for a test of the 20-Day line as support before gold is ready to challenge the 2,484-record high. If the 20-Day line fails to hold as support, the 50-Day MA will be next on the agenda, currently at 2,362. It was successfully tested as support last Thursday and it should do so again.
Weekly Pattern Remains Bullish
On a weekly basis, gold triggered a weekly bullish reversal this week as it rallied above last week’s high of 2,432. A weekly close above that price level tomorrow will confirm the breakout. Overall, the weekly chart indicates that gold is likely to progress higher. However, it could do that after a deeper pullback or a new short-term consolidation phase.
There remains a technical argument for a failure scenario where gold continues to encounter resistance that eventually leads to another test of support around the bottom of the recent consolidation pattern. And it may not hold, which could lead to a sharp reversal from a relatively large topping pattern. This is not a prediction, just something to be aware of as a possibility.
Recent Signs of Strength
Gold is showing overall improving strength that can be seen in price structure. Notice that the most recent swing low (C) is higher than the prior swing low from late-June (A). A sign that the uptrend continues to progress. An uptrend consists of a series of higher swing lows and higher swing highs. And the swing low was confirmed as support by the orange 50-day MA, and internal uptrend line.
What is interesting is the relative performance of the corrections. There were two previous corrections in gold following the April swing high. The first saw a decline in the price of gold of 6.3% and the second was 6.7%. The most recent correction ended after only a 5.3% decline.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Surges to 2,451, Eyes New Record Highs
By: Bruce Powers | July 31, 2024
• Gold surged to 2,451, breaking above 2,432 and signaling a strong bullish reversal, with potential targets at 2,480 and 2,566.
Gold continued to strengthen on Wednesday as it reached a high of 2,451, thereby triggering a breakout above the most recent interim swing high of 2,432 (C). This follows a bullish reversal following a successful test of support around the 50-Day MA last week. The 20-Day MA was recaptured yesterday, providing an early warning for a possible continuation higher. Gold is on track to close strong for the day as it continues to trade near the highs of the day. In addition, a daily close above the 2,432-swing high will confirm a bullish reversal of the recent bearish retracement.
Strong Upward Momentum
A wide range green candlestick will likely be completed today following yesterday’s similar bullish candlestick pattern. This puts gold in a position to test the 2,450-price zone as resistance. The price area has been reached and now its reaction at that price zone will provide additional clues. That price level is from a prior trend high from May 20. If exceeded to the upside, and it stays up, gold will be in a good position to test and likely exceed the recent record high of 2,484 reached on July 17.
Bullish Reversal on Monthly Chart
In addition to bullish behavior on the daily time frame, gold also triggered a bullish reversal on the weekly chart. Last week’s high was 2,432. If gold can close above that level today it would further confirm improving strength in demand. Moreover, a close today above 2,445 would generate the third highest daily closing price for gold historically, a further signal of strength.
Initial New High Target at 2,566
An initial new record high target is at the completion of a rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. Higher up is the convergence of two Fibonacci target levels around 2,566. One is derived from a long-term rising ABCD pattern extended by 161.8% that begins from the September 2022 swing low. The second Fibonacci level is from a shorter rising ABCD pattern that begins from the June swing low (A).
It is also extended by the 161.8% golden ratio. The second leg up, the CD leg, is 161.8% of the first leg up, the AB leg of the pattern. As noted previously, the monthly chart confirms the bullish outlook in gold. A monthly bullish breakout triggered earlier in July, and today’s close, the end of the month, will confirm the breakout on a monthly time frame.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold Continues to See Support
By: Christopher Lewis | July 31, 2024
• The gold market rallied in the early hours of Wednesday, as we wait for the Federal Reserve and its announcement later in the session. The interest rate decision will be important, but I believe the press conference and speech are where the next move comes from.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market rallied a bit during the trading session here on Wednesday in the early hours, but keep in mind that the Federal Reserve meets later in the day, and that obviously will have a major influence on where we go next.
Regardless, it does look like we are just simply trying to continue the overall uptrend, and I am bullish. I said a couple days ago if we can close above $2,400, I think that’s a sign that we are going much higher. This of course assumes that the Federal Reserve doesn’t completely freak the market out, but even if they did, it would probably only be a matter of time before the buyers came back.
In general, this is a situation where I think eventually, we go looking to the $2,475 level. If we can break that, then we could go looking towards the $2,500 level, which I do think we will eventually hit. I don’t really have a scenario in which I’m shorting gold at this point. I recognize that we could break back below the $2,400 level, but then at that point in time I would look to the 50-day EMA, followed by a significant uptrend line in order to find buying positions.
Gold has plenty of things working for it, not the least of which will be falling rates, central banks out there buying it hand over fist, and of course all of the geopolitical concerns that seemingly are endless at this point in time. Because of this, I remain a buyer on dips.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Short-Term Bullish Signs May Not Last
By: Bruce Powers | July 30, 2024
• Gold rebounds to a four-day high, trading above its 20-Day MA, signaling potential bullish momentum amid ongoing bearish correction.
Gold bounced off its recent 2,353 swing low on Tuesday as it reached a four-day high of 2,411. That put the precious metal back above its 20-Day MA, which is currently at 2,398. Moreover, it is on track to close above that price level. Although Tuesday’s session has not ended, trading continues near the highs of the day and above the 20-Day line. This puts gold in a position to complete today at its highest daily closing price in six days. Ending above the four-day high of 2,403 would be a slightly stronger indication than a close below that price level.
Remains in Bearish Correction
Nevertheless, gold remains in a bearish correction. The prior two corrections saw the price of gold fall by 6.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Given that each of those corrections followed a new record high, as does the current one, the current retracement may have further downside to go. The current retracement saw the price of gold fall by only 4.7% so far, less than the prior two. If last week’s low turns out to be the bottom, it would be a strong bullish sign. Buyers could have waited for lower prices, but they did not, reflecting growing demand.
Above 2,432 Needed for Sustained Rally
If the bearish retracement has more downside to go, then the bounce in gold seen this week will likely find resistance and turn back down. This makes the most recent interim swing of 2,432 important. A bearish continuation is possible if gold remains below that swing high. However, if gold breaks out above 2,432, it is signaling that the correction is likely over, and a bottom is set. Under this scenario, the recent swing low would be the lowest possible entry area before a new attempt to break out to new record highs.
Lower Targets Start with 2,332
Lower potential support targets start at 2,332, the completion of a falling ABCD pattern. Both the AB and CD legs of the pattern will match price symmetry at that pivot. Further down is a price area around 2,305. It includes the lower support range of the top consolidation pattern from the past few months and the extended target for the ABCD pattern at 2,305.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Demand Is Golden. Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | July 30, 2024
Gold demand surged to a record this year according to the latest World Gold Council report even as some worry about gold being a so called “finite” resource that will run out in a few decades. Of course, if price get high enough, I am sure they will find more gold one way or another as recycling and the quest for profits may cause gold miners and gold prospectors to go where no man has gone before. Yet those worries about gold as a precious metal only make the quest to own gold more precious. The phones lighting up positions they still have their second largest net long position since April.
The Word Gold Council said that gold demand excluding OTC in Q2 was down 6% y/y to 929 ton as a sharp decline in jeweler consumption outweighed mild gains in all other sectors.
Adding OTC investment to total gold demand yields a 4% y/y increase to 1,258t – the highest Q2 in our data series back to 2000.
They said that the record gold price environment took its toll on Q2 jewelry consumption: volumes fell 19% y/y to a four-year low of 391tons.
Central bank net gold buying was 6% higher y/y at 184 tons, driven by the need for portfolio protection and diversification.
A minor 7 tons decline in global gold ETF holdings in Q2 compared positively with the 21t drop in Q2’23. Sizable early outflows were followed by nascent later inflows.
Retail bar and coin investment was 5% lower at 261t, primarily due to weak demand from Western markets. But gold used in technology jumped 11% y/y, as the AI trend continued to drive demand in the sector.
That demand is one of the reasons golds has been outperforming. We are also getting support for geopolitical uncertainty raising the desire for alternative investment.
Silver has not been as lucky even as it tries to bottom after getting beat up on concerns about demand due to the failing energy transition. Yet historically silver is out of whack with gold.
Chris Powell via MoneyMetals.com and reported in Zero Hedge wrote that “In the July 18 edition of Gold Newsletter, editor Zero Hedge and publisher Brien Lundin wrote about the failure of silver prices to keep up with gold prices.
“I’m not the kind of conspiracy buff that many of my friends in the industry are,” Lundin wrote, “but it’s hard to look at silver and not see some hidden hands at work (especially considering who holds so much of the metal in both physical and paper forms while acting as custodian for the biggest silver exchange-traded fund).” Of course, Lundin meant investment bank JPMorgan Chase and silver ETF SLV.
He Writes “Why anyone would invest in silver or the other precious and monetary metals with JPMorgan Chase can be explained only by ignorance.
In the last decade, the bank has pleaded guilty to five felonies and has paid more than a billion dollars in government fines and civil lawsuit settlements, including a fine of $920 million for manipulation of the monetary metals markets by some of its traders.
But silver market manipulation long has been bigger than even JPMorgan Chase. Indeed, silver price suppression has been U.S. government policy since President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Coinage Act of 1965, which removed silver from the country’s money. “If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content”: a must read.
Outtake is that while silver will be volatile it has limited downside as gold will keep us from falling too far. Risng geopolitical risk should support both silver and gold.
There is the possibility of a civil war in Venezuela. People are uprising in the streets as they feel them Venezuelan President t Nicolás Maduro tole the election, Bloomberg News reported that (erg) — Venezuela’s opposition can prove that Edmundo González won Sunday’s election, according to María Corina Machado, who led the campaign against President Nicolás Maduro. She told supporters at her party’s campaign headquarters on Monday evening that the opposition has enough of the “actas,” or voting tabulations to prove they won the election. Last night, they had access to about 40% of them, now they say they have over 70%. The figures show a categoric and “irreversible” triumph: 6.2 million votes for González compared to 2.8 million.
Copper Is failing to bet a bid as weak Asian stock markets are weighing on the market.
I expect if the economic data in the United States is positive copper should find a bottom soon.
Th the increasing odds of a cut in interest rates should spur the housing markets and home building.
That should be a supportive factor for copper. Expectations that China will continue to support their economy should keep the copper market from falling too much further its markets getting extremely oversold and the outlook for the copper shortage in the years ahead hasn’t gone away
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 27, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23810 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24884 intraday and is still trading above that high of 24067.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 23892 and support forming below at 23795. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 15th at 24884, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 23957. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of July 15th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 23826 made back during the week of June 17th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of May 20th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 23274. Additional support is to be found at 23202. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | July 27, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 273.1k, down 12k.
Gold suffered its second negative week, down 0.75 percent this week to $2,381/ounce. Last week, it peaked at $2,488 on the 17th. Gold bugs, however, were unable to hang on to those gains; if they did, this would have been an important breakout.
Gold went sideways for three months before posting a new high followed by a reversal last week. On April 12th, it hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. This was eclipsed on May 20th, as the yellow metal ticked $2,454 before once again coming under pressure. All along, bids showed up at $2,300, a breach of which will have shifted momentum to the bears.
Non-commercials are worth watching here. Last week (in the week to 16th), they were the most net long since March 2020. This week, they cut their holdings a tad. A break of $2,300 in the cash can lead these traders to begin to reduce their exposure.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Support Holds but It May Not Last
By: Bruce Powers | July 26, 2024
• Gold remains between $2,356 and $2,391; a break below $2,353 suggests bearish continuation towards $2,332 and beyond.
Gold bounced on Friday following a new retracement low of 2,353 that was reached yesterday. Today’s activity is contained within yesterday’s range and sandwiched between resistance around 20-Day MA and support around the 50-Day MA. The high of 2,391 and today’s low of 2,356 provides near-term support and resistance. Support around the 50-Day MA at 2,360 has been tested as support both today and yesterday.
Downward Pressure Could Take Gold Lower
If a rally above today’s high follows, then there is a possibility that the retracement may be complete. However, the more likely scenario is a continuation of the retracement to test lower price levels. Gold fell below the 20-Day MA yesterday and it tested it as resistance today. This is generally bearish behavior when occurring within a downtrend. Therefore, a drop below this week’s low of 2,353 indicates a likely bearish continuation. The next lower targets look to be around 2,332 and lower price zones could also be reached.
Support Near Bottom of Consolidation Range Begins at 2,305
Further down near the bottom of the current consolidation zone is the next lower support area from around 2,305 to 2,298. It starts with the completion of a falling ABCD pattern extended by the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio. There is also the lower boundary line of a consolidation range plus the 50% retracement at 2,298. The consolidation pattern takes the form of a rising parallel trend channel.
This is a potentially bearish pattern but only if there is a breakdown from the formation. That would happen on a decline below the June 10 swing low of 2,294. This doesn’t mean that a breakdown will occur, but it is a possibility.
Rally Above 20-Day MA Needed for Signs of Strength
Of course, support may be seen at or above the lower support zone followed by a bullish reversal. Also, the 50-Day MA may continue to act as support leading to an upside move. A rally above the 20-Day MA would provide a sign of strength, which would confirm on a daily close above it. Yesterday’s high of 2,401 would then provide the next upside pivot level.
Correction Too Short to Complete
There have been two prior corrections in gold since the April 12 swing high of 2,431. Each lasted two or three weeks following the swing high week. The current correction in gold is about to complete its first week down from the swing high week. This means that there is likely at least one more week to go before the correction bottoms, leaving time for gold to test lower price levels.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Look Strong Despite Falling
By: Christopher Lewis | July 26, 2024
• The gold market has been a bit noisy over the last few days, as the weekly charts show that perhaps we are trying to find out whether or not there is any real momentum underneath.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Gold markets initially took off to the upside during the trading week, and then plunged as we continue to see a lot of noisy and erratic behavior in financial markets overall. With this being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where the market participants continue to look at the $2,400 level as important, and I do think we are going to try to get there given enough time. Once we break above there, then we could go looking to the $2,500 level over the longer term. The market has been very noisy over the last couple of weeks, and at this point I have to assume more of the same nonsensical chop will continue to be what we’re looking at.
Short term dips should continue to be buying opportunities because quite frankly, there are plenty of geopolitical concerns out there that could continue to keep the gold market somewhat attractive. Furthermore, if interest rates continue to drop, and they most certainly did during the day on Friday, it should continue to benefit gold as well. Watch those bonds and they start to get picked up.
It’s possible the gold could as well. Either way, I don’t have any interest in shorting this market. It’s far too strong, and it’s really not until we break down below the $2,300 level that I even start to question the overall momentum as well. I like gold, but I realize that this situation is one that asks for low leverage, and perhaps a bit of caution in this trading environment.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Drops Below Key Levels, Targets Lower Prices
By: Bruce Powers | July 25, 2024
• Gold's decline continues, breaking key levels and targeting 2,332, with potential further downside if support zones fail.
Gold continued to retrace its prior advance on Thursday, as it fell to a new retracement low of 2,353. It continues to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing. The decline today dropped gold below the 20-Day MA, through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,355, and below the 50-Day MA. It is on track to end the day below each of those price levels thereby indicating lower prices may be in the works before the retracement is complete.
Next Lower Target is 2,332
The next lower target for gold is around 2,332. That is where a descending ABCD pattern completes, and the two legs of the pattern are equal as far as the depreciation of price. Given today’s decline, this target has a good chance of being reached. Certainly, if today’s low is broken during Friday’s trading session, the 2,332 becomes a likely next target. There is also a potential support zone lower down from around 2,305 to 2,298.
That price zone is derived from a couple Fibonacci levels, including the 50% retracement at 2,298, and a trendline that goes across the bottom of the recent three-month consolidation pattern. However, be aware that the monthly low for July was 2,318. If the 2,332-support level does not stop the decline, the monthly level may be broken to the downside.
Lower Boundary of Channel Likely to be Tested
Caution is warranted if the lower price zone is reached, as it is a three-point line. Therefore, if it fails to hold as support gold could accelerate to the downside. Also, the overall top pattern in gold is a rising parallel channel. Both the top and lower boundary lines have three points thereby solidifying the pattern. In general, a rising parallel channel can trigger a bearish signal. That would happen on a decline below the 2,294-swing low from June 26 as it is part of the lower boundary price structure of the channel.
Breakout Above 2,389 Needed for Signs of Strength
Today’s low found support around the 50-Day MA and a top trend channel line. If support continues to hold and leads to a bounce, areas to watch for resistance include the 20-Day MA and previous 50% retracement level around 2,389. If gold can rally above there it has a chance to breakout above today’s high. If that happens the above bearish scenario may start to change.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Here’s Why Gold Is A ‘Massive Buying Opportunity’ Right Now
By: Phil Carr | July 25, 2024
• After an explosive start to July, that saw Gold hit yet another all-time record high of $2,483 an ounce – prices have pulled back as trader’s bank windfall profits to offset losses in other asset classes such as Equities.
Equity Markets Plummet as JP Morgan Warns of Bigger Correction Ahead
This week, U.S Equity Indices recorded their worst day since October 2022 after lacklustre results from index heavyweights Alphabet and Tesla unleashed a cascading sell-off across the entire technology sector.
According to JP Morgan, the $1 trillion selloff in Equities this week could be the start of a bigger correction ahead – amid glaring evidence of market froth and many big tech stocks still trading at higher-than-average valuations.
In a note to clients, JP Morgan advised staying defensive, with the Equities backdrop looking “Problematic”. The banks analysts closed the note by reissuing their call to “Sell Stocks and Buy Gold”.
While the fundamental picture looks increasingly volatile and uncertain for Equities – on the flipside the fundamental backdrop continues to remain ultra-bullish for Gold due an ever-growing number of macro and geopolitical tailwinds that are currently unfolding.
These include; persistent geopolitical tensions, strong central bank purchases, growing demand from China as a hedge against economic instability in the world’s second-largest economy, along with the high-stakes U.S presidential election.
Gold Set for ‘New Super Bull’ Run as Traders Could Bet on Trump Victory
Traders are already starting to price in a Donald Trump victory in November – which could spur a “new super bull” in Gold off the back of a multitude of factors including – tariffs of 60% or higher on foreign goods, a surge in infrastructure spending and tighter sanctions on Iranian oil – all of which could reignite global inflation.
During Donald Trump’s previous presidency – Gold price rose substantially, soaring from $1,200 an ounce when he took office in January 2017 to over $1,900 an ounce in his final month, which was January 2021.
Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. The possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House will also inevitably mark the return of the famous “Trump Trade”.
And that’s unquestionably ultra-bullish for Gold.
Analysts See Gold Pullback as Massive Buying Opportunity, Predict 2024 to be ‘Year of the Metals’
To quote analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence – “This is the pullback so many traders who missed out on the first leg of the current Supercycle in Gold have been waiting for”.
The analysts went on to doubling down on their view that “2024 Is The Year of The Metals and any substantial pullbacks should be viewed as massive buying opportunities because Gold prices won’t stay this low for long”.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Continues to See Downward Pressures
By: Christopher Lewis | July 25, 2024
• The gold market is trying to reach towards a lot of support below, but at this point in time, we will have to be very careful. This is a market that I am watching closely, due to the fact that I believe it is about to offer a lot of value.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market fell rather hard during the early hours on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of basically, panic in the financial world. Ultimately, this is a market that I think does find buyers underneath, and it’s probably worth noting that we are just above the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to. So ultimately, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that may or may not bounce.
We also have an uptrend line that sits just below there. So, I think the downside at this point is probably somewhat limited. In fact, when you look at the chart going back to at least March, you can almost make out a bit of a channel and we are getting fairly close to the bottom of it. So, because of this, I think you’ve got a situation where traders may have dumped gold to quite frankly pay the losses back in other markets.
It’s been a very bad couple of days, but really nothing’s changed. And that’s probably the one thing that traders need to keep in mind. I do think that given enough time, we will probably bounce back towards the $2,400 level and if we can recapture that gold really could start to take off again. On the other hand, if we break down below the uptrend line, then it’s possible that we could drop down to the $2,300 level where there is a massive amount of support. But right now, I think we are more likely to see a bounce. Do not try to anticipate it though. Let the market show you that it’s recovering before putting money to work.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Faces Resistance, Risk of Deeper Pullback Looms
By: Bruce Powers | July 24, 2024
• Gold rallied to $2,432 but faced resistance, risking a pullback below $2,405, with key support at $2,384 and potential further declines.
Gold rallied earlier during Wednesday’s trading session but found resistance at the day’s high of 2,432. That led to a pullback that is at risk of breaking below the day’s low of 2,405, at the time of this writing. Not a convincing rally and it puts gold at risk to testing recent lows with the possibility of falling lower. The recent swing low shows support at 2,384, which successfully tested support of the 20-Day MA.
Weekly Bearish Signal
Last Friday gold fell sharply following a new record high of 2,484. It represented aggressive selling. Given today’s failure to hold the advance, a continuation of the current bearish retracement becomes more likely. Moreover, a bearish weekly signal triggered this week as gold fell below last week’s low of 2,394. A drop through 2,384 aligns with the bearish weekly breakdown and targets lower prices.
ABCD Pattern Targets 2,332
Looking at the prior two retracements in gold, each had formed a descending ABCD pattern prior to completing the retracement. Might the current retracement form the same pattern before a bullish reversal holds? Certainly, that would fit the pattern. Each of the prior two retracements occurred after gold reached a new record high. If the current retracement is not yet complete and leads to a drop below 2,384, gold will be well on its way to testing lower price levels.
Since there is a minor swing high potentially complete today, an ABCD pattern to the chart. It shows a lower potential target for gold at 2,332. If reached, it would put gold back below its 20-Day and 50-Day MAs. However, at that target gold would remain above support at recent lows of 2,294 and 2,277. Also, it is possible that another rally to test resistance above today’s high occurs before gold falls to a new retracement low. If that happens the C point of the ABCD pattern will be adjusted.
Larger Picture Monthly View Remains Bullish
A bullish reversal triggered in the monthly chart of gold this month. It is supportive of an eventual move into new record highs. The low of the month should be watched for signs of weakness as a drop below 2,318 will trigger a monthly bearish reversal. If gold stays above 2,318 it continues to have a chance to rally and challenge recent highs once the correction is complete.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Consolidates Above Key Levels, Bullish Reversal Possible
By: Bruce Powers | July 23, 2024
• Support holds for gold at 2,384, setting the stage for a potential retest of the 2,484-record high, contingent on a rally above 2,412.
Gold has found support around the 50% retracement with a low of 2,384 reached on Monday. Support is further indicated by the June 7 interim swing high of 2,388 and the 20-Day MA at 2,382. If support at this week’s low continues to hold gold is in position for a possible retest of last week’s new record high of 2,484. Monday completed a relatively narrow range day and today, Tuesday, is set to end with an inside day, representing consolidation.
Bull Reversal Above 2,412
A decisive rally above Monday’s high of 2,412 triggers a bullish reversal from key short-term support. Going forward the 20-Day MA will be in a good position to provide trend support as gold advances, if it is to do so. A slightly lower upside target is at 2,450, as it was resistance previously and stopped the advance of gold in May.
Lower Support Zone Anchored at 2,366
Alternatively, there are a couple lower price levels to watch for support if this week’s low of 2,384 is busted to the downside. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement completes at 2,366 and an internal uptrend line may be nearby, depending on when it is reached. There is also the 50-Day MA at 2,360. Notice that the prior two retracements took the form of descending ABCD patterns.
If the current retracement takes a similar form, then the BC leg of the pattern may be next. That would be a rally up into resistance. Subsequently, the CD portion of the pattern would drop gold below this week’s low. If this scenario unfolds, it should present a clearer picture as to when the correction is complete.
Weekly Bearish Pattern
Of concern is the weekly chart. Last week’s pattern was a shooting start bearish reversal. The week ended in a weak position, in the lower quarter of the week’s trading range. A bearish signal was triggered this week. However, whether the breakdown follows through or not should provide some clarity as to its reliability. The bearish weekly signal also gives weight to the scenario noted above where a rally follows today that eventually hits resistance and turns back down. That turndown then breaks below yesterday’s low to test lower potential support areas.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Will Gold Keep Making Higher Record Highs?
By: Barchart | July 19, 2024
The most recent high in the COMEX gold futures market was in July 2024, when the precious metal rose to just below the $2,490 per ounce level. After a correction that took gold below $2,300 in May and June, the price was rose to a new high in July. In my Q2 precious metals report on Barchart, I wrote:
Gold settled Q2 at the $2,339.60 level. Gold was marginally higher at over the $2,380 level in July 2024, and the bullish path of least resistance remained firmly intact. Gold remains in a quarter-of-a-century bull market, and the odds favor higher highs over the coming months and years. Central banks have been buying gold, further validating its role in the global financial system.
The case for higher gold prices remains compelling during the second half of 2024. The Gold SPDR (GLD) is the most liquid gold ETF product.
Don’t fight the trend- A quarter-of-a-century of gains
Gold prices fell to a bottom at $252.50 on the nearby COMEX futures contract in 1999.
The long-term chart from the 1970s shows that gold’s bull market has made higher lows and higher highs over the past twenty-five years, reaching its latest $2,488.40 peak in July 2024. At the $2,405 level, the precious metal remains near the recent high.
The trend is always your best friend in markets, and gold’s path of least resistance remains higher as we move into the second half of 2024.
A BRICS currency is bullish for gold
U.S. sanctions on Russia and the bifurcation of the world’s nuclear powers have led the BRICS countries to seek alternatives to the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar.
Over the past years, central banks worldwide have been net buyers of gold, increasing their reserves. China and Russia have led the way in accumulating gold, but the official statistics likely underestimate their gold purchases. As the world’s leading gold producers, China and Russia have likely vacuumed in domestic gold output, pushing their reserves even higher. Since the Chinese and Russians consider strategic commodity and currency reserves state secrets and national security matters, their reserves have likely grown exponentially over the past years.
The BRICS countries are working to roll out a currency to challenge the U.S. dollar, euro, and other allied reserve currencies. A BRICS currency may have some gold backing, making it less of a fiat than the existing reserve foreign exchange instruments. The price is likely to increase as gold’s role in the international financial system grows.
Moreover, historically high debt levels in the U.S. and Europe may add further upside pressure to gold prices.
Falling interest rates support higher gold prices
Gold tends to rise in a falling interest rate environment. Meanwhile, gold’s ascent over the past years as U.S. short-term rates rose from zero in March 2022 to a midpoint of 5.375% is a testament to the metal’s underlying strength.
The latest U.S. jobs data showed June unemployment rose to 4.1%. While June CPI came in slightly lower than expected, June’s PPI data was somewhat hotter, balancing the consumer price index data. At his latest testimony before the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, Chairman Jerome Powell told legislators that the Fed’s next move will likely be a Fed Funds Rate cut. While the Fed needs further validation that inflation is heading towards its 2% target, the data over the past months justify an initial 25 basis point reduction in short-term interest rates.
As the Fed shifts from a hawkish to a more accommodative monetary policy stance, it will support a continuation of the quarter-of-a-century gold rally.
Bank of America’s $3,000 forecast could be conservative
Bank of America analysts forecast gold prices to rise to the $3,000 per ounce level over the next 12-18 months. The analysts wrote:
While the motivation of individual central banks for owning gold may vary, many reserve portfolios have one thing in common: the share of USD has been declining, while gold holdings have risen. The long-standing inverse relationship between gold and rates has become more tenuous already and, in our view, this is unlikely to change going forward.
BoA cited the rise in private bar and central bank hoarding to 49% of gold purchases in 2023 from 43% in 2022. The central banks bought 1,037 metric tons of gold in 2023, the second-highest year on record behind 2022’s 1,082 tons.
GLD is a liquid alternative to physical gold or futures
The most direct route for a gold investment is the physical market for bars and coins. In 2004, the Gold SPDR (GLD) became the first and most successful commodity ETF product. GLD’s fund summary states:
At $222.40 per share, GLD had over $66.687 billion in assets under management. GLD trades an average of nearly 5.8 million shares daily and charges a 0.40% management fee.
The most recent rally in the continuous COMEX gold futures contract took the price 37.5% higher from $1,809.40 in October 2023 to $2,488.40 in July 2024.
Over the same period, GLD rose 36.5%, moving from $168.30 to $229.65 per share. The ETF did an excellent job tracking gold prices, with slight underperformance due to its expense ratio.
The twenty-five-year bullish gold trend remains firmly intact as we head into the second half of 2024. The path of least resistance favors new all-time highs over the coming months as fundamental and technical factors present a compelling bullish case.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 20, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 23991 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24884 intraday and is still trading above that high of 24067.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23961 and overhead resistance forming above at 24232. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 15th at 24884, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24884 to 23957. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 24884. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 24260 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 23341 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | July 20, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 285k, up 30.2k.
As expected, gold bugs staged a breakout this week but were unable to hang on to it. On Tuesday, gold broke out to a new intraday high of $2,475. The momentum continued Wednesday with another intraday high of $2,488 but only to then reverse lower. By Friday, the metal had given back 0.9 percent for the week to $2,399/ounce.
Prior to the breakout, gold essentially went sideways for three months. On April 12th, it hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. This was eclipsed on May 20th, as the yellow metal ticked $2,454 before once again coming under pressure. All along, bids showed up at $2,300, a breach of which will have shifted momentum to the bears.
Even now, this week’s action probably does not boost bulls’ confidence. A test of the 50-day at $2,369 probably lies ahead; if this is lost, $2,300 is a must-save for the bulls.
Non-commercials have been aggressively accumulating net longs in gold futures, and it does not take long for them to begin unwinding those.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
NYBob
3 weeks ago
Massive GOLD Revaluation Incoming, 'Sell at Your Own Peril': Andy Schectman - Commodity
Culture - VIDEO
https://youtu.be/unRNXsMTBhk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unRNXsMTBhk
$Pelangio Exploration Inc. is a Canada-based company, which acquires and explores land packages
on strategic gold belts in Ghana, West Africa and Canada.
In Ghana, the Company is exploring its two 100% owned camp-sized properties:
the 100 square kilometers (km2) $Manfo property, the site of seven near-surface gold discoveries, and
the 284 km2 $Obuasi property, located four kilometers (km) on strike and adjacent to AngloGold Ashanti’s
prolific high-grade Obuasi Mine, as well as its
$Dankran property located adjacent to its Obuasi property.
Its Canada projects include $Gowan Polymetallic, Dome West, Birch Lake, Grenfell, Kenogaming,
Hailstone and others.
The Gowan polymetallic project is a 4.3 km2 property located in Gowan Township, 27 km northeast
of the City of Timmins, Ontario and 16 km due east of Glencore’s Kidd Mine Site.
$Pelangio's Dome West property is located within the main Timmins camp approximately 800 meters west
of Newmont’s Dome super pit.
DD.... $PELANGIO EXPLORATION INC. - EXPLORATION IN A FEW OF THE WORLD'S RICHEST GOLD
CLASS DISTRICTS:
GHANA & CANADA
US: PGXPF / TSXV: PX - March 2024
THE $OBUASI GOLD MINE - A DOCUMENTARY -
One of THE RICHEST GOLD MINES on the earth -
GLG STUDIOS GHANA -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8bV9rtfXrM
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Obuasi is a gold mining community[3] and town which is the capital of the Obuasi Municipal District in
the Ashanti Region of Ghana.[4] It lies in the southern part of the Obuasi Municipal, 39 miles (63 kilometres)
south-west of Ashanti capital city Kumasi.[4] Obuasi has a population of 175,043 people.[2]
Obuasi mining community has a mixture of the Ashanti people culture and the semi-island exclave Ashantiland.[4]
Obuasi is home to the Obuasi Gold Mine, one of the largest known gold deposits on Earth.[1][4]
The Gold Coast region was named after the large amount of gold mined historically at Obuasi and
the broader Ashanti Region.[4]
Economy
Main article: Economy of Ashanti
Obuasi is known for the Obuasi Gold Mine, one of the largest underground gold mines in the world.
Gold has been mined on the site since at least the seventeenth century.[1]
The Obuasi Gold Mine is now being refurbished after being placed under care and maintenance in 2014.
The mine was anticipated to reach full production in 2022,
with a mine life of more than 20 years.[5][needs update]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obuasi
DD.... $PELANGIO EXPLORATION INC. Corporate Presentation
https://pelangio.com/investors/presentations/
Pelangio Exploration Inc.: https://pelangio.com
$Gold To Hit $7000?! Central Banks Are Buying Up All The $Gold They Can!
Wall Street Silver
https://youtu.be/RaFoPOE3QXU
Who is benefiting from Ghana Gold?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqR-svtt834
$Pelangio Exploration reports results from maiden RC drill program at Dankran Project Ghana
InvestmentPitch Media
7.31K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Jik0CXIo0g
$Pelangio Intersects 49.5 Metres Grading 1.18 g/t Gold at Nkansu -
Significant Intercepts in All Five Holes
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pelangio-intersects-49-5-metres-120000904.html
$Pelangio Exploration Inc., 7 Gold Discoveries in Ghana, CEO Clip Video
https://youtu.be/fcP-BHmZR-k
https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/34735/Pelangio-Exploration-Inc.-7-Gold-Discoveries-in-Ghana-CEO-Clip-Video
$Pelangio Exploration drills 1.8 g/t gold over 13 metres at Manfo, Ghana
https://resourceworld.com/pelangio-exploration-drills-1-8-g-t-gold-over-13-metres-at-manfo-ghana/
Pelangio Exploration: Multiple Early Stage Gold Exploration Projects in Canada and Ghana
Swiss Resource Capital AG
30.6K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcvTfY0QrOE
$Pelangio Exploration Inc. (PGXPF) - $GOLD Activities In Ghana And Canada - Ingrid Hibbard, CEO
Pelangio Exploration (TSXV:PX) Provides Update on Activities In Ghana And Canada
https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2023/09/06/pelangio-exploration-provides-update-on-activities-in-ghana-and-canada
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174399334
It’s here, it’s due, it has to happen, and the train is moving.
Get on board before u gotta chase it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/why-we-are-start-multi-year-gold-bull-market
Long Trend is UP for Gold and Gold stocks..
Gold's $9K will take us all by surprise! How Many Ounces Of Gold & Silver Are You HOLDING? -
Rule
The Market View
https://youtu.be/uBhMLt7b_pw
$Gold Legal Tender GOD'S Real Money -
$GOD We Trust - Real Money - AU Safety 6000yrs
https://www.kitconet.com/images/live/au0001wb.gif
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SILVER&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p88847633689&r=1712194893454
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SILVER&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p88847633689&r=1712194786158
$Gold & Silver is the only REAL Legal Tender -
by The Founding Fathers for your -
Rights, Liberty and Freedom -[
Prayers TIA.
http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/monie.htm
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24USD&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p09665864339&r=1712195150644
God Bless
Remember in November -
Top law professor labels mRNA COVID-19 injections “weapons of mass destruction.”
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Faces Bearish Retracement, Testing Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | July 19, 2024
• Gold continues bearish retracement, testing key support at 2,389 with potential further decline to 61.8% retracement at 2,366.
Gold continued its bearish retracement on Friday, falling to a low of 2,394 before finding minor support. It is well on its way to test support around the 50% retracement at 2,389. Notice that the 2,389-price area was where resistance was encountered at a minor swing high in early-June. It also stalled the recent ascent for several days in early-July before gold ran up to a new record high of 2,484 on Monday.
Downward Momentum Accelerates
Given the acceleration in the pullback from the new record high gold may continue to fall and test lower potential support levels if the 50% retracement area doesn’t hold. Lower down is the convergence of several indicators that have converged around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2,366.
Both the 20-Day MA (purple) and 50-Day MA (orange) are near the 61.8% retracement zone. Currently, the 20-Day line is marking potential support at 2,374 and the 50-Day line is at 2,358. There is also an internal uptrend line close by that should be watched as well.
New High Breakout Fails to Hold
A pullback following a new record high is not that surprising given that the rally that preceded the breakout began down around 2,294 in late-June. By the time gold broke out to a new record high it was further into the trend and bullish momentum could not be sustained. Now that the upside follow through has ended downward pressure in the price of gold has increased. The reversal from this week’s high sets up a bearish weekly candlestick pattern.
Weekly Bearish Shooting Star on Deck
On the weekly chart gold is about to end with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. It shows buyers in charge earlier in the week but by the end of the week, sellers were in charge. In other words, a failed breakout occurred, and sentiment has turned short-term bearish. Therefore, it may not be resolved quickly, and gold may need some time before it is ready to attempt a new record high again.
A decline below this week’s low of 2,394 will trigger a weekly bearish reversal. This is another reason why the lower price zone target is at greater risk of being reached. Nonetheless, the two prior corrections on a weekly basis lasted either two or three weeks.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Plunges in The Early Hours of Friday
By: Christopher Lewis | July 19, 2024
• The gold market plunged in the early hours of Friday, as the market participants seemingly jumped back into the US dollar. The $2400 level now becomes very important in the short-term, and it will be worth paying attention to.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market plunged quite drastically during the early hours on Friday, as it looks like we are hell bent on racing towards the $2,400 level. I find this interesting because I think that could be a good entry point. We’ll have to wait and see. What I want to see is the market test that area and then bounce and hold it. If it does, it makes a lot of sense. That was an area that was previously resistant to prices. The 50-day EMA is closer to the $2,350 level, but it is rising at a pretty sharp angle.
So, it does suggest that perhaps the market is going to continue to see value hunters. A lot of this will come down to the US dollar and what it’s doing, and it’s probably worth noting that the US dollar is strengthening, so that is causing a little bit of trouble for gold. Nonetheless, this is a market that has plenty of things going for it, not to mention geopolitical issues. And of course, central banks around the world are buyers of gold as well.
Interest rate cuts should help gold, at least in theory, so we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out. But I think any bounce at this point in time probably sends the market straight back up. So, I believe that the Friday candlestick is going to be very crucial in determining whether we buy it here or if we maybe let it come back into the previous consolidation before buying it.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Falls Further After Reaching New Record High
By: Bruce Powers | July 18, 2024
• After hitting a record high of $2,484, gold pulls back, heading towards test of key support levels before launching towards near-term upside target of $2,495.
Gold is attempting to retrace part of its recent advance following a new record high of 2,484 reached yesterday. Today, gold has pulled back further, dropping below Wednesday’s low of 2,451 to reach a low of 2,440 for the day. Also, today’s low is below the prior record high of 2,450. However, trading continues near the lows of the day and a new daily low could be reached by today’s close.
Initial Potential Support Levels
There are several initial price levels to watch for possible support to show up. The first is at the April 12 swing high of 2,431. A little lower is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,411, followed by the 50% retracement at 2,389. Somewhat more weight is given to the 2,389-price level as it is also a match with a prior interim swing high from June 7. A pullback to test that price zone as support may provide a nice setup for a bullish continuation. It is above both the 20- and 50-Day MAs, at 2,370 and 2,357, respectively. Also, it is above all the trendlines.
A Long-Term Target Reached at 2,480
This week’s new record high of 2,484 completed a key long-term target for gold from a large rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. The AB leg of the pattern began at the swing low of 1,160 in August 2018. It led to a rally into the August 2020 swing high of 2,013. A similar advance in price began from the September 2022 swing low of 1,615 and ended this week.
Once there is symmetry in price, a potential pivot level has been identified. It looks like that was the case here given the bearish reaction following Wednesday’s high of 2,484. Nonetheless, following the completion of a bearish retracement, gold is anticipated to continue to trend higher towards upside targets.
Recent Bearish Retracement Points to 2,495 Target
There is Fibonacci confluence area with several price levels identified around 2,487. A little further up from there is a relatively near-term target at 2,495. That price level will complete a 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline that began from the May 20 peak. A greater than 100% or 127.2% retracement completes at the 2,495-price level.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Reaches New High at 2,484, Faces Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | July 17, 2024
• After hitting a record 2,484, gold faces resistance with a potential bearish pattern, yet retains bullish outlook above key support levels.
Gold continued to advance to a new trend high of 2,484 on Wednesday before encountering resistance. Sellers took back control from that high and have set gold up with a potential bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Underlying strength remains however, as Wednesday is on track to complete a narrow range day near the highs of Tuesday’s new record high wide range breakout day. Strength indicated by the breakout was confirmed by Tuesday’s close above the previous record high of 2,450.
High Completes ABCD Pattern Begun in 2018
There are a couple things to notice about today’s new record high. First, a target zone was hit on today’s advance at 2,480. That is a long-term target from a large ascending ABCD pattern that began from the August 2018 swing low. It began the AB leg of the advance. The second leg up, the CD portion, began from the September 2022 swing low. A potential pivot price is indicated once the price change in the second leg up matches the first. That is what is being seen so far.
It is confirmed by a short-term trendline connecting swing highs beginning with April 12. The high today was essentially a match with potential resistance indicated by the line. The ABCD pattern target is an initial target from the pattern. As gold continues to rise, extended targets will play a role. A 127.2% extended target for the ABCD is at 2,715.
Lower Support Starts with 2,411
If the bearish retracement from Wednesday’s high continues, it is triggered on a decline below today’s low of 2,451. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement completes at 2,411, while this week’s low is at 2,401. Either marks an area of potential interest from buyers. Nevertheless, the 50% retracement level of 2,389 is confirmed by a prior interim swing high from early-June.
The 50-Day MA is a key trend support zone for gold. It is at 2,366 currently. Therefore, the bullish outlook is retained in gold if it stays above the 50-Day MA. Notice that recently the purple 20-Day MA crossed above the 50-Day line, proving another sign of strength for the precious metal.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Hits New Record High Amid Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | July 16, 2024
• Following a bullish crossover, gold hit a new record high of 2,467, with higher targets now in focus.
Gold breaks out to a new record high following a bullish crossover of the 20-Day MA above the 50-Day MA yesterday. The previous record high was 2,450, which was reached on May 20. Today, Tuesday, gold has reached a new record high of 2,467, at the time of this writing, and it continues to trade near the highs of the day.
New Record High of 2,467
An initial new high target for gold at 2,462 was already exceeded today, putting higher targets in scope. That pivot was a 161.8% extended retracement of the decline that begun from the August 2011 swing high. It still may act as an area of resistance as the high today is not much beyond the 2,462-price level. Watch to see where today’s close completes. Above 2,462 is more likely to lead quickly to an advance to higher price targets, rather than a daily close below that price level.
Higher Targets Start with 2,480
There are several higher targets shown on the chart from around 2,480 to 2,494. The lower price level for the range is a long-term target for a large rising ABCD pattern. It began from the July 2018 swing low of 1,160. An AB leg for the pattern ended at 2,031 in August 2020, while the beginning of the CD leg was at 1,615 in September 2022.
At the top of the price range is 2,494. That price level completes a 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline from the 2,450-trend high. There are two other price levels within the identified price range as well, giving further credence to the price range. Arguably, since the 127.2% target is based on a near-term pattern, it has a good chance of being reached within the current expansion.
Monthly Bullish Signal Supports Higher Prices
Higher prices are supported by recent price action. A monthly bull signal in gold was triggered earlier this month on a rise above June’s high of 2,388. Given that July is halfway complete, gold has a chance to end the month strong, in the upper third of the month’s price range. Also, a weekly bullish continuation signal triggered this week and gold is on track to end the week strong, in the upper third of the week’s trading range. If it does so, it has a good chance of seeing strong upward momentum heading into next week.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Look Very Strong
By: Christopher Lewis | July 16, 2024
• Gold markets continue to look very strong as we are testing a major recent high. Ultimately, we are on the precipice of breaking out one way or the other, either through the mass of bullish pressure, or another pullback that eventually gets bought back into.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market has really taken off again in the early hours on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of upward momentum with the possibility of breaking above the $2,450 level. If we can break above that level, then it will be a continuation of the overall bullish pressure that we have seen for some time. And I do think it’s probably only a matter of time before that happens. The question, of course, is whether or not we get a short term pullback. In the meantime, we did get that pullback somewhat on Monday.
So maybe Tuesday is just a continuation and eventual breakout. Clearly, we are in a major uptrend and at the very top of the consolidation area that’s been going on since roughly the beginning of April. There are plenty of geopolitical concerns out there that could continue to push gold higher. And then of course, there are ideas that the central banks, even the Federal Reserve might be out there looking to cut rates at the end of the year.
So, if that’s going to be the case, that could also help. the gold market going forward. After all, this is a market that is highly interest rate sensitive. So that obviously is a major factor. Pullbacks at this point in time should the plenty of support right around the $2,400 level based on psychological support as it was psychological resistance. And, of course, there are probably quite a few options barriers. Either way, I think that we are either going to break out or we are going to remain a buy on the debt market.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Is Ready To Test New Highs
By: Vladimir Zernov | July 15, 2024
Key Points:
• China's central bank did not buy gold in June.
• Physically-backed gold ETFs enjoyed inflows for the second month in a row in June.
• Central banks believe that gold's share in reserves would grow in the next five years.
Gold has recently managed to settle above the $2400 level and is moving towards the $2450 level. Interestingly, the usual suspect – China’s central bank – did not buy gold for the second month in a row. At the end of June, China held 72.8 million ounces of gold.
While the country’s central bank was waiting for a pullback, other investors have used the opportunity to buy gold at lower prices, pushing gold back above the $2400 level.
World Gold Council data shows that physically-backed gold ETFs enjoyed monthly inflows of $1.4 billion in June. Year-to-date, such ETFs lost $6.7 billion as investors were moving money out of gold ETFs at the start of the year.
Data shows that speculative investors have started to buy gold ETFs at a time when the more conservative China’s central bank stopped its purchases due to high prices.
At this point, the key question is whether China’s central bank will start buying again in the upcoming months. The central bank missed the opportunity to purchase gold near the $2300 level, so it may be forced to buy more gold at higher prices in order to diversify its reserves amid rising tensions in U.S. – China relations.
A recent central bank survey published by World Gold Council shows that the percentage of central banks that believe that dollar’s share of total reserves would be ‘significantly lower’ five years from now has increased from 5% in 2023 to 13% in 2024.
As many as 66% of respondents believe that the share of gold in total reserves would be ‘moderately higher’ five years from now.
Most likely, speculative investors would like to benefit from this long-term trend, so inflows into gold ETFs would continue to grow. Meanwhile, the upcoming beginning of the Fed rate cut cycle should provide additional support to gold markets and push gold above the $2500 level.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Show Strength
By: Christopher Lewis | July 15, 2024
• The gold market has shown itself to be strong again in the early hours of Monday, as traders continue to think about the geopolitical issues, and of course the idea that central banks are starting to cut rates.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday, but it does look like the $2,400 level is going to continue to offer a bit of psychological support, if nothing else. You can see that we initially pulled back a bit, only to turn around and show signs of life. The $2,450 level above is more likely than not going to be a little bit of a short term resistance barrier. And of course, people will be paying close attention to it. If we can break above that level, then it’s likely that we will get to the $2,500 level.
Any move below 2400 would probably just be more of the same. It would be an indictment on the attempted breakout, and it would suggest that we are just simply going to head right back into the previous consolidation. This is a real possibility, but we’ll have to see how that plays out. For me, the $2,300 region is a major support level that we will have to pay close attention to what’s going on when we get down to that area on any selloff.
That being said, it certainly looks like we have a lot of resiliency here. And I do think that this is a market that suggests that it’s probably only a matter of time before we do breakout, to the upside. If we get falling rates, that will help gold. But we also have geopolitical tensions, which most certainly helps gold. And then of course, we just have the overall trend that’s been bullish for several months now.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 13, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 24207 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 24304 intraday and is still trading above that high of 24067.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 24015.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 24304, which was up 5 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24304 to 23560. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 8th reaching 24304 has exceeded the previous high of 23826 made back during the week of June 17th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19950 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | July 13, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 254.8k, up 13.2k.
Gold is itching to break out. This week, it rose one percent to $2,421/ounce.
The metal has essentially gone sideways the past three months. On April 12th, gold hit a new intraday high of $2,449 before selling off a tad. On May 20th, a new high was created as the yellow metal ticked $2,454. All along, bids showed up at $2,300.
Amidst this, non-commercials are the most net long gold futures since March 2022.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Gold Bullish Momentum Retained
By: Bruce Powers | July 12, 2024
• Gold forms a bullish doji hammer inside day, signaling potential breakout above 2,425 with higher targets at 2,462 and 2,480.
Gold is on track to complete bullish doji hammer inside day today with a high of 2,418 at the time of this writing. Trading continues near the highs of the day heading towards Friday’s close. Today’s price action is constructive for the advance as it follows a strong candle yesterday with a close near the high of the day. The 20-Day MA is about to confirm strength as it has converged with the 50-Day MA and is about to cross above it. In addition, both moving averages have converged with a trendline, and they are about to cross above it. Each would provide an additional sign of improving demand.
Potential for Bull Breakout of Inside Day
The inside day sets up a potential upside breakout on a rally above today’s high. Thursday’s high was around 2,425 and will be the next key level as a breakout above it triggers a continuation of the rising trend. The hammer characteristics of the inside day show continued bullish demand. Moreover, today’s price action is largely in the upper half of yesterday’s trading range. That shows strength relative to Thursday’s price range. In addition, Thursday’s closing price of 2,415 is the third highest daily close for gold on record, another sign of strength.
Above 2,425 Signals Trend Continuation
A sustained breakout above this week’s high of 2,425 triggers a continuation of the bull trend. Gold must then rise above the 2,431-swing high from April 12. It then heads towards the record high of 2,450. Given the variety of bullish indications lately, it has a good chance of breaking above 2,431.
Eventual New High Targets of 2,462 and 2,480
The initial two new high price targets are at 2,462 and 2,480. A long-term extended 161.8% retracement target from the decline off the August 2011 high identifies the first price level. That price level is followed by the completion of a long-term rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. Those price levels are followed by a Fibonacci confluence zone around 2,489. That is where two or more Fibonacci levels congregate.
Regardless of the above bullish scenario, sometimes markets don’t make it so easy. If that happens with gold, we may see resistance leading to a retracement prior to a breakout to new record highs. Just an alternative scenario to be aware of in case it occurs.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Citi Predicts $3,000 Gold by 2025
By: Karl Montevirgen | July 12, 2024
• What the Fed does in the coming months could dramatically affect the direction of gold prices
• While seasonality suggests a shift from slump to strong performance for gold, it will likely coincide with the Fed's rate decisions in the coming months
• Goldman Sachs projects gold to hit $2,700 by the end of 2024; Citi projects $3,000 by 2025
Will Fed Chief Jay Powell rouse King Midas from his summer slumber? Gold investors are eager to have that question answered. The Fed's response will determine whether investors press pause or pull the trigger.
Thursday's CPI data seemed favorable enough. Consumer prices are easing, raising Wall Street's hopes for a Fed rate cut. Friday's PPI report, however, came out higher than expected. With inflation easing on the consumer end but rising stubbornly on the manufacturing end, how will the Fed respond in the coming months?
Central Banks Can Push Gold to Upwards of $3,000 by 2025
Gold price targets have been everywhere, largely depending on FOMC projections. But Citi's latest prediction is bold and bright for gold bulls. They see central bank gold demand driving prices to $3,000 by 2025, while Goldman Sachs revised its target for 2024 upward to $2,700.
The rationale? Analysts think central banks will snap up 1,100 tons of gold in 2024, with a bullish scenario hitting 1,250 tons. This demand has been steady at 28–30% of gold mine production since 2022, potentially climbing to 35% due to trade wars and worries about U.S. fiscal policies.
Gold: A 20-Year Lookback
Let's step back and take a wide-angle view ($GOLD monthly chart) of gold's position relative to its 20-year history.
CHART 1. 20-YEAR MONTHLY CHART OF GOLD. This chart might answer the raging debate about whether gold is a good investment. What do you think?
Gold see-sawed in a trading range from 2013 to 2019. After a breakout, it hit an all-time high and then saw three more years of wide sideways movement before 2024. In May, gold hit its highest price ever: $2,450.05 an ounce.mThe long-term trend? Net bullish. It's a reality check when you see that gold's price rise mirrors the drop in your money's purchasing power.
Momentum-wise, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tells you that buying pressure is on an upswing which, in the past, coincided with every major rally. The big question now: will this anticipated rally keep going?
$GOLD vs GLD — Big Players vs. the Retail Crowd
For retail investors, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is the proxy for gold futures. Looking at StockCharts' correlation indicator, gold futures ($GOLD) and GLD are both moving in lockstep based on their 0.98 to 1.0 (meaning 98% to 100%) correlation, as you can see below:
CHART 2. CORRELATION BETWEEN GOLD FUTURES AND SPDR GOLD SHARES ETF. Note that the ETF is also gold-backed, making it a strong proxy for the metal itself.
But when you look at the buying and selling pressure as represented by the CMF, you get a different picture.
CHART 3. CHART OF GOLD FUTURES AND GLD WITH DIFFERING CMF READINGS. While gold futures show steady buying pressure, the ETF has shown outflows.
While gold futures and bullion are the domain of Institutional investors and commercial consumers (think manufacturers, hedgers, etc.), the retail crowd trades GLD. Are the pros gearing up for a move that retail investors might miss?
Add the Following Two Charts to Your StockCharts ChartLists
The $GOLD chart shows how gold futures prices stack up against the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD). The ETF is meant to track the futures, but look closely. If the thesis holds, you might be able to spot the difference between institutional vs. retail buying or selling—potentially signaling a market opportunity.
GLD's Daily Price Action
GLD gives a mixed picture.
CHART 4. DAILY CHART OF GLD. Bullish and bearish indications, but with clear support levels.
The CMF and the Ichimoku Cloud are both leaning bearish. The CMF shows dwindling momentum (dipping below the zero line) while GLD seemingly struggles to take out its record high of $225.66. The cloud turned red, giving the impression that once support is broken, it could transform into a thickening resistance range.
On the bullish side, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) shows both signal line and centerline crossovers, indicating a potential bullish scenario. Plus, the uptrend in both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (SMAs) are intact and steadily rising. Both can provide support.
However, GLD could continue to drift downward, breaking below the 100-day SMA and the bottom cloud level—which it can do, given that gold tends to perform poorly in the summer months. If that happens, where else can you find strategic buying points (assuming that gold will rise to higher levels toward the end of the year)?
Plotting Fibonacci Retracement levels tells you that 38.2% ($209.60), and the range between 50% ($204.70) and 61.8% (199.75) might serve as strategic buy zones for accumulating GLD shares. After all, the context we're facing is a dreadful seasonal slump in August and September and a sharp rebound in the last quarter of the year, as StockCharts' five-year seasonality chart below illustrates.
CHART 5. FIVE-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Why five years? Because the monetary and geopolitical scenario (e.g., inflation and global de-dollarization) of recent years changes the context of the dollar and gold.
But the real game-changer? The Fed's upcoming decisions on interest rates. That's the trigger you should be watching closely.
Closing Bell
Gold's prospects are a mixed bag of bullish and bearish signals, heavily influenced by the Fed's next moves on interest rates. While institutional players and central banks appear to be buying, retail investors are probably missing some cues. Seasonality-wise, gold's in a summer slump. However, things can change as early as the end of July, when the FOMC meets to deliver its rate decision. If not, things could also change very rapidly in the coming months. Plus, gold tends to perform well in the last quarter of the year.
Keep an eye on the strategic buy zones highlighted above. And remember: the real game-changer lies in the Fed's upcoming decisions.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
HSBC's new gold prices forecast calls for a 12% drop in 2025
By: Investing.com | July 12, 2024
NEW YORK(July 12) Gold prices surged to a record high in mid-May, driven by robust safe haven and hedge fund purchases.
This rally has been prompted by expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as well as increasing economic uncertainty. Furthermore, rising fiscal deficits have spurred significant gold purchases, predominantly in the over-the-counter (OTC) market.
The jump to record highs came despite positive real rates, HSBC's precious metals analysts said.
"Gold is historically sensitiv
Looking further ahead, HSBC’s long-term forecast for the bullion now sits at $2,000/oz, up from the previous $1,700/oz.
In terms of year-end gold price projections, the bank said its 2024 and 2025 forecasts are $2,210/oz and $2,075/oz, respectively.
Which stock should you buy in your very next trade?
With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities.
In 2024 alone, ProPicks' AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record.
With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.
e to real rates, and while there has been a notable disconnect in this relationship, we expect real rates to weigh on gold towards the end of 2024 and 2025,” they wrote.
Although exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to liquidate, strong purchases in the OTC market and by real money investors have counterbalanced this trend. Net long positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) remain high, but analysts suggest they may not increase significantly from current levels.
"Market sentiment is clearly bullish, and while the near-term upward trajectory shows no signs of slacking, we think prices are progressively overstretched," they noted.
Within this, HSBC has raised its average price forecasts for gold due to near-term strength, however, the bank expects a potential decline in prices by Q4 this year or into 2025.
Specifically, analysts have lifted its average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,160/oz to $2,305/oz. Yet, their 2025 estimates are now lowered from $2,105/oz to $1,980/oz, implying a 12% drop from current levels.
Analysts expect gold prices to rebound in 2026, raising their average price projection for that year from $1,880/oz to $2,025/oz.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Gold Rally Eyes Record High After Bullish Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 11, 2024
• Gold surged to 2,425 today, maintaining bullish momentum. A strong close could push prices towards the 2,450-record high, with the next potential resistance at 2,431.
Gold rallied today and triggered an extension of the rising trend to reach a high of 2,425. Momentum has since died down intraday, but buyers remain in control with trading continuing near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. The rally completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,415. Although there are signs of resistance around the 79.6% level the pullback has been mild so far.
If gold can close strong today, in the upper quarter of the day’s trading range, it has a chance to continue to rally into the end of this week. Also, watch the relative closing price. There has been only one day that gold closed above today’s high and that was on May 20, the day gold hit its current record high of 2,450. A strong close today sets the stage for gold to recapture the record high and keep rising.
Strong Upward Momentum May Challenge Record High
The next higher potential resistance area is around the April 12 swing high at 2,431. There is also an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level at the same price level adding to its potential short-term significance. Since the bull breakout last week gold has maintained strength above prior resistance areas defined by the downtrend line, top trend channel line and the 50-Day MA (orange).
Today’s rally further confirms improving demand in the precious metal. The question is, can upward momentum be sustained enough to take gold above the 2,450-record high or will it first encounter resistance that leads to a retracement or consolidation phase first.
20-Day MA Bull Crossover in Process
Further confirming strength of the uptrend will be the 20-Day MA (purple). It is more sensitive to changes in price since it uses a shorter period to calculate, and it is about to cross back above the 50-Day line since being below it from June 17. This will be another piece of evidence indicating that strength in demand is improving. Moreover, the 20-Day and 50-Day lines have come together more recently as gold consolidated and volatility died now. Now that a bullish breakout is in play the bull trend should be ready to reassert itself. This will increase the distance between the two moving averages as momentum improves and the uptrend extends.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
News
Market Data
Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.
stockwrestler2
1 week ago
trunkmonk
1 week ago
