DiscoverGold
20 hours ago
Gold and the March High?
By: Marty Armstrong | March 28, 2025
We still see gold rising and a turning point arriving next week. Our initial target resistance remains the 3098 level, followed by 3116-3120. I remain concerned about war from May forward. Therefore, you often get the false move to flush out people before a move in the opposite direction. This would suggest that perhaps we peak temporarily, do a short-term correction, and then we have that Panic Cycle the week of May 5th.
So be on guard right now. Gold will not run away to the upside without war; it must get above 3120. Then OK. Otherwise, fake everyone out, and then the real trend unfolds. I still see the serious impact of war in 2027, and we may see the end of the Eurozone by 2028/2029.
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DiscoverGold
21 hours ago
Gold Continues to Look Strong
By: Christopher Lewis | March 28, 2025
• The gold market has rallied again on Friday, as we continue to see a lot of money flowing into it. At this point, the market seems like it is going to remain “buy on the dip.”
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market has rallied again during the trading session on Friday as we find ourselves well above the $3075 level at the time of recording. Short-term pullbacks are likely and short-term pullbacks are almost certainly going to be bought into based on the idea of value. The $3,000 level now is the floor for me and it’s probably worth remembering that the market had recently formed a bullish flag that we are now breaking well beyond, and we have to look for the so-called measured move of gold going to the $3,300 level. There’s literally nothing on this chart that suggests that it cannot happen. So, we need to keep that in the back of our mind.
Gold is getting a boost from central banks around the world, becoming a little softer with their monetary policy. But of course, there is a lot of uncertainty out there and that should continue to help gold as well. I have no interest whatsoever in trying to short this market and therefore every time it pulls back, I’m thinking along the lines of whether or not it is going to offer value that I want to pick up.
After all, gold has been one of the better performers for a while now, and I just don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon. So, with that, I’m bullish of gold, have been for a while, and probably will remain for quite some time from here.
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2 days ago
Gold Precious Metal Poised for Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | March 27, 2025
• Gold's surge to a new high of $3,060 underscores its bullish momentum, with a close above $3,058 confirming a trend continuation.
It looks like gold is ready to head higher rather than establishing a deeper bearish correction first. Gold rallied to a new record high of $3,060 on Thursday and it is set to close in a bullish position, in the top quarter of the day’s trading range. The rally followed the low for the day at $3,033. At the time of this writing, gold continues to trade near the highs of the day. A daily close above the prior high at $3,058 will confirm the trend continuation breakout signal and more so if the week completes with gold above that price level.
Pointing Higher
The next higher target for gold is at $3,079, defined by the confluence of several Fibonacci levels. And it certainly can keep rising given today’s trend continuation signal. Following that price zone there is an early 78.6% target for the CD leg of a rising ABCD pattern at $3,125. Otherwise, watch the area around the rising trend channel line as it may mark a resistance area. After that the next confluence zone is around $3,148 and $3,154.
Top Channel Line May Be Tested
Gold’s behavior around the lower top trend channel line should be telling as it represents the top of a large ascending parallel trend channel from a low in October 2023. The larger the pattern, the more significant the price level may be. There is also a shorter and current trend channel on the chart highlighted in green. The top line from that channel is higher than the larger channel line. Notice that the $3,125 price level could be reached even if resistance was seen at the initial channel line. It will depend on how the angle of ascent for the advance.
Daily Close Above $3,057 Confirms Breakout
Regardless of the above bullish signs, a daily close above $3,057 is needed to confirm the breakout. Gold would need to fall below today’s low of $3,018 before giving a bearish signal. The 20-Day MA marks a key trend support area and will continue to do so if gold continues higher. Despite the possibility that the price is getting more extended, a projection from the closest ABCD pattern (not shown) has an initial target at $3,177.
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DiscoverGold
2 days ago
To The Stars and Beyond! Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 27, 2025
Kitco Gold reported that Gold’s rally above $3,000 has prompted America’s second-largest bank to increase its price target for this year and to solidify its longer-term target. In their latest commodity report, analysts at Bank of America announced that they expect to see an average gold price of around $3,063 an ounce this year, with prices jumping to $3,350 in 2026, up from the previous average price forecasts of $2,750 an ounce and $2,625 an ounce, respectively. The analysts also said that they see gold prices rising to $3,500 within two years.
Last month, Bank of America said that the gold market would need to see investment demand rise by 10% to hit $3,500.
Looking ahead, the analysts have said that concerns over the strength of the economy and expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates more aggressively than current forecasts will provide important support for investment demand through the rest of the year. Bank of America also noted that President Donald Trump’s America First policies to reduce its global trade deficit could encourage central banks to further diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
The optimal gold reserve for central banks. Central bank gold demand has been a critical factor behind gold’s rise to the $3,000 level; while global reserves have seen a significant increase in the last three years, Bank of America argues that they still need to go higher. “Looking at gold as an effective portfolio diversifier, central banks have an 11% gold allocation in their FX reserves, up from 5.5% in 2000, so investment in the yellow metal has already come a long way,” the analysts said. “Yet, central banks could diversify further.”
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3 days ago
Gold Consolidates Near All-Time High, Key Support Levels Eyed
By: Bruce Powers | March 26, 2025
• Gold continues consolidating near record highs, with support at $2,999. A breakdown below key levels could shift momentum toward further downside.
Gold consolidated for a third day in a row on Wednesday and it will likely end the session with a relatively narrow inside day. The consolidation range runs from last Friday’s low of $2,999 to Tuesday’s high at $3,036. Each day’s price range for this week has been inside the range from last Friday.
This reflects continued demand as the consolidation pattern as the price of gold has held up not much lower than the recent all-time high at $3,057. On the weekly chart, a relatively narrow inside week has formed, reflecting consolidation on that time frame.
Weekly Bull Pattern
Last week’s low was $2,982 and it is part of the trend structure of higher weekly lows, and therefore a potential support area. If the current weekly uptrend pattern of higher weekly lows is to be retained, support for the pullback would need to be seen at or above that price area. Nevertheless, there is potential support a little lower starting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,971.
Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is rising, and it rose above the prior trend high of $2,956 today. The 20-Day line represents a key potential support zone following the reclaim of the line on March 12. It is now at $2,959. This pullback would be the first test of the 20-Day MA as support since then. Since it is also associated with other key initial price levels, there is a good chance that support is seen.
Intraday Pattern is Bearish
Although the short-term consolidation may continue to evolve a while longer, a drop below $2,999 will signal a continuation of the decline. Further insight is provided by the 1-Hour intraday chart (not shown). It shows a breakdown from a head and shoulders topping pattern last week, followed by two successful tests of resistance around the neckline of the pattern this week.
And there is a parallel trend channel or bear flag type pattern below the neckline. Lines for both the neckline and bottom of the channel can be seen on the enclosed daily chart. Therefore, a dip below Tuesday’s low of $3,007 may provide a sign of weakness that could lead to a drop below $2,999.
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silver_bars
3 days ago
Gold & Silver Stocks Scan-Screen for Tuesday, Mar. 25 2025, After Market Close ...
The grid-view image above shows the top 24 results from a scan-screen from a list of aprox. 500 Small Cap Gold & Silver stocks, that ...
- shows the results for after market close Tuesday, Mar. 25, 2025 ...
- shows just the top 24 results sorted by relative strength (RSI) in descending order - from the highest RSI ranking ...
- shows the results in a condensed grid format called "candle-glance" view ...
- each mini chart shows; candlesticks for past 60 days, price, RSI, volume, 20 & 50 day moving averages.
This daily "candle-glance" grid style chart view format sorted by strongest relative strength (RSI) is helpful for quickly identifying potential shorter term trading opportunities for a small-select group of stocks currently posting stronger than average strength-momentum indicators out of a much larger group of approx. 500 stocks from the same sector.
The majority of the companies in the scan-screen list are TSX & TSXV listed stocks ... and many of these stocks also have a corresponding US listing.
***** DISCLAIMER .....
- I may have positions/trades on some stocks featured in the stock scan,
- i am not an investment advisor ... and i'm not employed in the securities industry,
- i am not being paid a fee to post-publish info about any stocks featured in the scans.
DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Gold Short-Term Strength Tested Amid Key Fibonacci Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | March 25, 2025
• Gold hit resistance at $3,036 and reversed intraday, suggesting uncertainty between a bullish breakout above $3,047 or a deeper correction below $2,999.
Gold rallied into resistance at $3,036 on Tuesday as it retraced the recent small decline. A 61.8% retracement was completed at $3,043 before resistance was seen and gold turned back down intraday. The low for the day was $3,007 gold is set to establish a higher high and higher low for the day. At the time of this writing, gold is at risk of closing in a relatively weak position, below the halfway point for the day’s trading range. That would be at $3,021.64.
Tuesday’s Price Range Has Key Price Levels
Following a new record high of $3,058 reached last Thursday, gold dropped to a low of $2,999 on Friday. That remains the low of the bearish pullback so far, which is not much. Near the record high for gold is the 200% extended retracement of the late-October bearish correction at $3,043. There looks to be two basic scenarios now developing in gold.
Either the bull trend continues towards a higher target, or a bearish correction continues. A higher daily high and higher low today showed short-term strength following a very minor decline. But a bearish reversal intraday at the 61.8% retracement and subsequent decline intraday suggests the possibility that a continuation of the pullback may follow.
Above $3,058 Targets $3,080
A rise above today’s high of $3,036 will show strength but gold would need to get above last Friday’s high of $3,047 before there is an indication that gold may challenge the recent high before a deeper pullback. If gold can subsequently exceed the record high it should have a chance to approach the next higher target around $3,080, which shows confluence of a couple Fibonacci levels. In addition, there is a top trend channel line (green highlight) that may present resistance a little above the higher price target.
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 20-Day MA Support
On the downside, a drop below Tuesday’s low of $3,007 indicates a likely deeper pullback while that is signaled on a drop below Friday’s low and the weekly low at $2,999. Downside initial targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,972 and the prior trend high at $2,956. Notice that the 20-Day MA has converged with that prior high and it continues to rise. The 20-Day line is at $2,955 and it also presents an important short-term pullback target.
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NYBob
4 days ago
Aris Mining Corp ARMN
Primary Symbol: T.ARIS Alternate Symbol(s): CLGDF | T.ARIS.WT.A | N.AMNG.NT.U
Industrial Metals & Minerals
Aris Mining Corporation is a gold producer in the Americas.
The Company is engaged in operating two mines with expansions underway in Colombia.
The Segovia Operation is located in the Segovia-Remedios mining district in the department
of Antioquia, Colombia, approximately 180 kilometers (km) northeast of Medellin.
The Segovia Operations comprises four active underground gold mining operations...
which include El Silencio, Sandra K, Providencia, and Carla. It has over 11 titles
with a total area of 5,335.58 hectares (ha).
The Marmato underground gold mine is located on the west side of the town of Marmato,
in Marmato municipality of Caldas Department, in the Republic of Colombia,
approximately 80 km from Medellin and 200 km northwest of the capital city of Bogota.
The Company is also the operator and 51% owner of the Soto Norte Project,
which is advancing to develop a new underground gold, silver and copper mine.
In Guyana, it is advancing the Toroparu, a gold/copper project.
ARIS MINING REPORTS RECORD Q4 2024 FINANCIAL RESULTS WITH STRONG
EBITDA GROWTH AND ANNOUNCES 25% CAPACITY EXPANSION AT MARMATO
March 12, 2025
https://aris-mining.com/news/2025/
https://aris-mining.com/
https://wp-arismining-2023.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/2025/02/Aris-Mining-Corporate-Presentation-February-2025-vF.pdf
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175925206
$4.63
?
0.095 |
2.10%
Bid: 4.62 x 2,000 Ask: 4.63 x 4,800 Volume: 825,603
USD | NYSEAM | DELAYED | | MARCH 25, 2025 03:15:00 PM EDT
DiscoverGold
4 days ago
Gold Continues to Look for Higher Pricing
By: Christopher Lewis | March 25, 2025
• The gold markets continue to look a bit stronger on Tuesday, as the market has been one of the better performers over the last several months. This is a market that has a tone of reasons to send it to higher levels.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market has rallied a bit during the early hours of Tuesday as the 3000 level continues to see a lot of interest and that makes sense, as large round figures do typically offer areas of entry and exit for larger traders, and of course, we have options markets that will be focused on these levels as well. Keep in mind that gold should continue to go higher due to the fact that the US dollar is shrinking. And of course, we have to ask questions about whether or not the tariff wars are over. A lot of traders out there are worried about protecting their wealth. And of course, gold is one of the first places they go to.
If we were to break down below the $3,000 level, then I think you need to look at the $2,925 region as your next support level, as it’s basically the top of the bullish flag that we had broken. Speaking of the bullish flag, it does suggest that we have a measured move to the $3,300 level and there’s really nothing on this chart that suggests that it can’t happen. Furthermore, there are plenty of geopolitical concerns out there, and I do think that we have to look at this through the prism of a market that will remain bullish, and every time it pulls back, you have to be looking at it as a potential buying opportunity. I just don’t see a reason to get short of gold anytime soon.
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5 days ago
Gold Cycle Update: U.S. Stocks Forming Key Low
By: Jim Curry | March 23, 2025
As mentioned in a prior article, the last correction of significance was due to play out with our 72-day time cycle, which ended up confirming a very early low - doing so with the late-February tag of 2844.10 (April, 2025 contract). With that, this wave is now seen as pushing higher overall into May, but with an in-between dip currently in force, coming from the smaller-degree cycles.
Gold, Short-Term
For the short-term picture, the smaller 10 and 20-day cycles are seen as heading slightly lower, with the next smaller-degree trough expected to come from these two waves. Shown below is the smaller 10-day component:
In terms of price, there is the potential for a drop back to the 10 and 20-day moving averages in the coming days, as these waves bottom out - with the lower 20-day average seen as key short-term support.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
Stepping back, the upward phase of our larger 72-day cycle is deemed to be in force, ideally pushing higher into May, plus or minus. Shown below is that 72-day wave:
If the upward phase of this 72-day cycle is to remain intact, then the next short-term decline with the smaller 10 and 20-day cycles would be favored to end up as countertrend, holding above the 2882.50 figure (April, 2025 contract) - their most recent bottom.
Stepping back then, a countertrend dip with the 10 and 20-day waves would be favored to give way to higher highs on the next swing up. In terms of price, the 3100 figure (April, 2025 contract) would be an ideal magnet to the next rally phase of these waves, with the same acting as a key resistance level, plus or minus.
Going further, adding weight to the idea of 3100 as a potential magnet - and a key resistance level - is the intersection of the extrapolated 34 and 72-day upper cycle channels, shown on the next chart:
Adding to the notes above, support to the current short-term downward phase with the 10 and 20-day cycles would be at or near the rising lower 34-day cycle channel - which is currently around the 2960's - not too far from the aforementioned 20-day moving average for Gold.
Stepping back further, as mentioned in our Gold Wave Trader report, a statistical analysis of the bigger 72-day cycle suggests the potential for an eventual push up to 3185-3240 into May, though an in-between correction could come from that 3100 figure.
The 310-Day Cycle
Above the 72-day cycle in Gold, there is a larger 310-day wave, which sets the direction for the mid-term trend:
With the January break to higher highs for the bigger swing (i.e., taking out the October, 2024 peak), the upward phase of this 310-day wave is seen as extended, though does have some potential to peak with the current upward phase of the smaller 72-day cycle.
In terms of price, we do have a key number with this 310-day cycle, which is the 2844.10 swing low from February. This number needs to hold any near-term downside going forward, in order to keep the 310-day cycle's extended upward phase intact.
U.S. Stock Market, Mid-Term
For the U.S. stock market, as mentioned in some of my prior articles the 180 and 360-day time cycles were seen as pushing higher into the late-2024 to early-2025 region - before topping, and giving way to a sharp decline into this Spring.
Here again is the smaller 180-day cycle on the S&P 500:
In terms of time, the trough for our 180-day wave has been projected for April of this year, but with a larger plus or minus variance in either direction - due to the size of the 180 and 360-day waves.
As mentioned in prior articles, a normal correction with this 180-day wave in U.S. stocks would take prices back to the rising 200-day moving average - which has obviously been met with the sharp decline off the mid-February peak. Since we are now below this 200-day moving average, it will also act as a first level of resistance.
With the above said and noted, the next low (and rally) of significance is expected to come from the 180 and 360-day waves in U.S. stocks, which are projected to bottom this Spring (i.e., April, plus or minus). Shown below is a combination forecast, from these 180 and 360-day cycles:
From a statistical inference with our smaller 180-day wave, there is the potential for a rally of some 17-20% off the next 180 and 360-day low, playing out into later this year. However, this will depend on whether the current correction phase of these waves ends up as countertrend, holding above the 5119.26 SPX CASH figure - the August, 2024 low - the last trough for our 180-day cycle.
In terms of price, it is too early to confirm an upside reversal point for these 180 and 360-day cycles, though one should ideally develop at some point. If triggered, it will be noted in our Market Turns report, which tracks the U.S. stock market; stay tuned.
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DiscoverGold
5 days ago
Gold & Silver Cool Slightly After Month-Long Rally
By: Mike Gleason | March 23, 2025
Given all the attention gold (in particular) has received in recent months – as well as large gains in the dollar price of both gold and silver – you'd think the average investor would finally be getting involved in this market in a big way.
In reality, though, we're seeing only a tiny uptick in U.S. retail market demand. The demand driving the metals' price gains continues to come from abroad.
Sadly, the "experts" that guide the American mainstream are still steeped in conventional thinking and therefore pooh-pooh gold.
As a result, an allocation to physical precious metals (even via ETFs) is still unusual, despite the fact we're nearly 25 years into a long-term uptrend.
Meanwhile, as our friend Brien Lundin of the renowned Gold Newsletter just wrote, "The tremendous rally we’ve seen in gold over the past two months, and even over the past year, is telling us something about the future... and that “something” is likely some combination of easier money and higher inflation."
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that no one should be worried about a recession.
During his press conference following the March FOMC meeting, Powell called the economy “strong overall,” and he brushed aside rising concerns about a recession, saying, “We don’t make such a forecast.”
Not everyone is convinced.
Recession worries have swelled over the last month as the trade war kicked off in earnest. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast plunged from a 2.3 percent growth rate in late February to -2.8 percent within a matter of weeks. It is currently at -1.8 percent.
And despite Powell’s rosy talking points, the Fed lowered its growth forecast to a 1.7 percent pace this year, down 0.4 percentage points from what it projected in December. Granted, that’s nowhere near recession territory, but it does indicate the central bankers aren’t quite as optimistic as Powell made it sound.
But the Fed has a long track record of painting overly optimistic pictures of the economy -- especially in the years leading up to the Great Recession and 2008 Financial Crisis or more recently when Powell claimed inflation was only "transitory."
The saying goes, “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.” Well, we can easily hear echoes of 2008 in the trajectory of today’s economy.
We had a massive injection of easy money into the market, just like after the dot-com bubble burst. Powell had to raise rates to keep a lid on price inflation, just like Ben Bernanke did in the early 2000s. The Fed started easing monetary policy, promising a soft landing, just like Bernanke promised in 2007.
And we have the same kinds of people telling us today there’s nothing to worry about.
In other news, Money Metals has a few specials going on right now. In particular, check out our discounted pricing on $20 Liberty gold coins, half-gram gold bars, and various silver coins.
At the same time, some folks may feel it's time to take some profits and/or need funds for another purpose. If so, don't forget Money Metals is also an excellent place to SELL your gold and silver. This can be done through any product page at MoneyMetals.com or by calling 1-800-800-1865.
Before we get to this week’s incredible interview, let’s check on the weekly price action.
Gold is pulling back here today and is off its highs from earlier in the week. The yellow metal currently checks in at $3,026 an ounce, up just 1.0% now for the week. Assuming it staves off a late-day collapse, gold is poised to end the week in positive territory for the 11th time now in the last 12 weeks.
Turning to the white metals, silver is off 80 cents or about 2.4% on the week to trade at $33.19 an ounce. Platinum is back under $1,000 after popping above it last week and currently trades at $993, down 1.9% for the week. And finally, palladium is off 1.2% to come in at $988 an ounce as of this Friday midday recording.
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DiscoverGold
6 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 22, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 18, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 257.9k, up 21.8k.
There is no stopping the yellow metal. Gold added another 1.3 percent this week to $3,021/ounce, with Thursday registering a fresh intraday high of $3,057. This was an 11th up week in the last 12. Gold touched $2,608 on December 30th last year.
Not surprisingly, the metal remains overbought. In the event unwinding of this condition begins, what transpires at $2,960s-70s will be telling. Gold struggled at that range for two weeks last month before slightly coming under pressure and then bottoming on February 28th. The resistance was taken care of seven sessions ago.
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DiscoverGold
7 days ago
Gold & the Pullback
By: Marty Armstrong | March 22, 2025
QUESTION: Marty, As we head into the Silver Benchmark Next week and the Arrays warn of March as a turning point, does this suggest we get a 2 to 3-month correction in gold?
DK
ANSWER: Yes, but this again does not appear to be a m major long-term high. Our target resistance was 3098, but we reached only 3065. May remains the critical turning point in so many areas. Gold has risen because of the geopolitical tensions and the moderate pullback in the dollar. We had a Directional Change in the euro last week, which fell back. The dollar may now bounce again into April, which can turn gold back down if the sentiment is also temporarily a peace deal during the war. But long-term, war is on the horizon, and we are witnessing massive troop buildups in the UK, Germany, Poland, and France.
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DiscoverGold
7 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 22, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 30214 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. As of now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 30652 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28022. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 29740.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30171 and overhead resistance forming above at 30475. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 17th at 30652, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 30652 to 29914. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 30652 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 30652. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 30405 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 27917 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Faces Bearish Reversal After Hitting Record High
By: Bruce Powers | March 21, 2025
• Gold’s rally stalled at $3,058 before reversing lower. Support is seen at $2,956 and $2,924, while a breakout above $3,058 may lead to new highs.
Gold triggered a bearish reversal on Friday as it turned down and fell to a three-day low of $2,999 before finding support and bouncing. Slowing upward momentum can been seen in the relatively narrow range candles of the past couple of days. Gold reached a new record high of $3,058 on Thursday but ended down from the opening price and slightly below the prior days’ closing price. That was a minor change in character as gold had closed higher for the prior seven days, except one.
New Record High Leads to Pullback
The new high in gold on Thursday occurred near a previously identified potential resistance zone derived from the confluence of several indicator targets. Although gold rose above the $3,043 high that was the top of the price zone, it didn’t go much further before encountering resistance that stopped the ascent. As with all price levels, they should be considered as an area of potential price resistance or support.
Increasing Selling Pressure
Since today’s bearish reversal is clear and reached a three-day low, it seems that natural gas is signaling increasing selling pressure that will likely lead to a test of support at lower price levels. A maximum lower price target indicated by current analysis would be the rising trendline at the bottom of the current parallel trend channel (highlighted). It is around $2,924 today. However, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement provides the first potential lower target at $2,792. After that would be the prior trend high at $2,956. Further down is the confluence of the 20-Day MA at $2,946 and the 50% retracement level at $2,945. Notice that since the 20-Day line is rising, it may converge with a higher price level before it is tested as support.
Rally Above $3,058 Improves Bullish Outlook
Short-term bearish indications will begin to be negated on a sustained rally above today’s high of $3,058. That could mean that gold had a one or a few days correction before rallying to continue its ascent. This could happen without gold going much lower. Of course, a sustained rally above today’s high has a good chance of leading to a new high breakout above $3,058. Gold would then be heading next towards the top of a rising channel along with a confluence target zone around $3,080.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Markets Have Another Bullish Week
By: Christopher Lewis | March 21, 2025
• The gold market has been bullish again this week, as we have cleared the $3000 level. This is a market that still have a lot of things going for it, so the idea of shorting gold at this point isn’t even a realistic thing.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold market has had another positive week as we continue to stretch, and we have broken above the crucial $3,000 level. That being said, this is a market that I think given enough time will continue to go much higher and we did just have a bullish flag break out with a potential move all the way to the $3,300 level.
The $3,300 level is a target for me over the longer term, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we get there overnight. I think short-term pullbacks continue to be buying opportunities and you have to look at them as potential entries. The $3,000 level, of course, will have a certain amount of market memory attached to it. And I do think that you have a situation where traders will also look at the $2,900 level underneath as it’s basically the top of that bullish flag as support. I don’t really have a situation where I’m willing to start selling gold. I think gold is just far too strong at the moment to believe that market participants are suddenly going to shift their attitude.
Granted, we may have the occasional ugly pullback, but that ugly pullback in an environment where interest rates are definitely going lower around the world, with the exception of Germany, and debt is certainly going to become an issue, gold shines. Furthermore, we also have to worry about geopolitical issues and, of course, the fact that the US dollar itself is shrinking, and that tends to help gold as well. With all of this, I believe that gold is going to continue to be very noisy, but I think it’s going to be driven to the upside more than anything else.
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1 week ago
Gold Rally Slows as Overbought Risks Emerge
By: Bruce Powers | March 20, 2025
• Gold’s strong weekly close suggests continued bullish momentum, but short-term risks remain if support at $3,026 fails.
Gold showed signs of slowing momentum on Thursday following a new record high of $3,058. And it has established another new daily high and daily low thereby keeping the daily uptrend structure intact. It showed strength by reaching a new record high and rising further above a price resistance zone that ended at $3,043. But it is at risk of completing the day in the red, below the opening price of $3,058, and at a lower daily closing price.
Pattern of Rising Closing Prices
Since the current leg of the rally began following a minor pullback to $2,880, now an interim swing low, each new day ended higher than the closing price of the prior day, except for one. That is a pattern that might change if Thursday’s trading session ends at a price below Wednesday’s closing price of $3,023. Nonetheless, the pattern of higher lows takes precedence, and it remains along with the pattern of higher daily highs.
Parallel Channels
There are two rising parallel trend channels shown on the chart. One is highlighted and the other shown with two rising blue parallel lines. The top of the channels provides an approximation of where signs of resistance may be seen. The top line of the larger channel is now lower and therefore would be approached next. Notice that it is crossing a small confluence zone around $3,080 today. That confluence zone marks the next higher target area. The lower channel line adds to its potential significance as a resistance zone.
Near Term Support at $3,026
Irrespective of the possibility of gold reaching higher targets before a pullback, a drop below today’s low of $3,026 might change that. It would be a sign of short-term weakness, but what happened next would be more important. For example, is the decline continuing or is there a quick recovery and rising prices? The price channels can assist in identifying oversold and overbought areas. Notice that the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator is in overbought condition as a top channel line is approached.
Likely Bullish Weekly Pattern
With one more day to the week, gold is on track to end the week in the top quarter of the period’s trading range. That would show strong bullish momentum on a larger time frame than the daily. If this occurs, then it would seem the next higher target zone may have a better chance of being reached next week.
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1 week ago
Gold’s Historic Surge
By: TrendSpider | March 20, 2025
Key Takeaways
• Gold Hits $3,000+: Gold reached $3,001.20 on March 14, up 13% this year and 500% in two decades.
• Central Bank Buying: Central banks added 18 tons in early 2025, with Uzbekistan and China leading.
• Future Outlook: Gold may hit $3,100 by year-end, but high prices could hurt jewelry demand.
Gold Surpasses $3,000 Amid Economic Uncertainty
On March 14, gold hit a historic $3,001.20 per troy ounce, marking a 13% surge this year and reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset. The rally is driven by rising inflation, global trade disruptions, and geopolitical instability, particularly trade policies under former U.S. President Donald Trump. Over the past two decades, gold prices have surged more than 500%, outpacing many traditional investments.
As financial uncertainty grows, central banks, institutional investors, and individuals are increasingly turning to gold to hedge against risk. The Federal Reserve’s expansionary policies, especially increasing the money supply, have further boosted gold’s value.
Central Bank Buying and Trade Wars Drive Prices Higher
London remains the world’s leading gold trading hub, with key markets in China, India, the Middle East, and the U.S. A significant factor in gold’s rise has been aggressive central bank buying, as nations seek to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and shield themselves from financial sanctions.
Goldman Sachs Research reports a surge in purchases following Western sanctions on Russia. Between election day and March 12, over 23 million ounces of gold—worth $70 billion—were deposited in New York’s Comex depositories, contributing to a record-high U.S. trade imbalance in January. At the start of 2025, central banks reported 18 tons of net purchases, with Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan leading the way, while Poland and India each added 3 tons to their reserves in January.
Historically, gold prices have spiked during financial crises. The metal first crossed $1,000 per ounce after the 2008 financial crash and later exceeded $2,000 during the COVID-19 pandemic. After dipping to $1,600 post-pandemic, prices rebounded in 2023, largely due to continued central bank purchases aimed at mitigating exposure to U.S. economic policies.
Gold’s Rally and Market Shifts
Despite record highs, analysts warn of a possible slowdown as some investors take profits and demand from China and India—who account for nearly half of global private gold consumption—declines. “Central banks will remain key players in 2025, with more investors entering gold ETFs,” said World Gold Council expert Louise Street. However, she noted that “weakness in the jewelry sector is likely to persist due to high prices and slow economic growth.”
Additionally, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycles, one of gold’s key support factors—low interest rates—could fade. If rates stabilize or rise, gold’s momentum may slow, potentially leading to a market correction. Still, Goldman Sachs projects an 8% rise in gold prices, reaching $3,100 per ounce by the end of 2025, citing strong central bank demand and increased gold ETF investments.
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1 week ago
Gold Hits Another Record High
By: Bruce Powers | March 19, 2025
• Gold surged to a new record high, breaking key resistance at $3,043, but may face overbought conditions that could lead to a pullback.
Gold reached its fourth new record high in five days on Wednesday, rising to $3,052. A new higher daily high and higher daily low will be established and a relatively narrow range day. The low for the day was $3,023. Strength will be confirmed by the closing price for Wednesday. At the time of this writing, gold is trading in the top half of the day’s trading range, and it is on track to have its highest ever daily closing price today. That will leave it poised for a possible continuation higher.
Resistance Zone Busted
In addition to continued bullish performance, today’s advance busted through a potential resistance zone that ended around $3,043. A daily close above that price level would provide another piece of bullish evidence for the trend. Once one price pivot is busted the next level becomes a potential target. The next higher price zone on the chart shows a potential price target around $3,078. That target is the 261.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that began in November of last year. Notice that the target is also around potential resistance near two top trend channel lines. They can be watched as well since the $3,078 price level is nearby.
Bullish Weekly Pattern
Regardless of the potential for bullish continuation in the near-term, the price of gold is getting extended and due for a pullback or rest day or two, if not more. It remains to be seen whether a breakout through the $3,043 price zone will prevail or whether resistance will be seen before much more of an advance is seen. This week is set to be the third consecutive higher weekly high and higher weekly low, thereby establishing the weekly uptrend. Since last week’s high was $3,005, a weekly closing price above that high will confirm a bull trend breakout on the weekly time frame.
Support Levels
Today’s low of $3,023 is near-term support and weekly support is $2,982. A move through either of today’s price levels should help determine the next direction for gold. Rising trend channels are shown on the chart as they can assist in identifying when an asset may be overbought or oversold and targets. As with many consolidation patterns, once price is rejected from one boundary line of the pattern there is the possibility that price will eventually test the other side. Since the top two rising trend channels show upper boundary lines higher than current prices, the top lines become potential targets.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Hits Record High, Eyes $3,043 Resistance Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | March 18, 2025
• Gold surged to a record $3,038, maintaining strong momentum. A breakout above $3,043 could push prices higher, while below $2,999 signals potential weakness.
Gold ascended to a new record high of $3,038 on Tuesday. It continues to trade near the highs of the day at the time of this writing and could easily go higher before the end of the day’s trading session. Nonetheless, it is on track to close in a bullish position, near the highs of the day. A potential resistance zone was entered earlier in the day, but gold busted right through all potential resistance levels and is now challenging the top area of the price range that goes to $3,043.
If that price level is exceeded with conviction, gold will have a chance to reach the next higher target zone around $3,078. Notice that there is also a top trend channel line above current prices and on the way to the next potential resistance zone.
Strong Upward Momentum
Strong upward momentum was exhibited today by the relatively wide trading range and full green candlestick pattern. Buyers took control at the opening of the day’s session, and they remain in charge as the end of Tuesday’s session approaches. This doesn’t mean that gold will keep rising before a pullback, but it certainly could. As noted, a rise above today’s high will need to contend with potential resistance around the top of a previously identified price range at $3,043. If that high is not exceeded either a rest day that takes the form of an inside day could occur, or the beginning of a bearish pullback could begin.
Near-term Support at $2,999
A drop below today’s low of $2,999 would signal weakness and a likely deeper pullback to test support levels. Key potential support levels are at the prior high of $2,956, followed by the 20-Day MA at $2,931 along with a previous interim swing high at $2,930. Since two indicators are marking a similar potential support area, that area should be given added significance if it is approached.
Bullish on All Time Frames
Gold is bullish on all time frames and there is uncertainty in the global economic backdrop. Nonetheless, despite being overbought on the RSI gold could certainly go higher if additional bullish signals are triggered. Moreover, there is the possibility of an accelerated rally at some point given growing economic uncertainly. With that in mind, the top trend channel line noted above may provide added insight if it is approached.
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