Why PIIGS ETFs Are Outperforming - ETF News And Commentary
October 03 2013 - 12:00PM
Zacks
The U.S. markets
continue to rise this year and reached a new all-time high again
last month. This is primarily attributable to an improving labor
market, solid retail data and a recovering housing market. The
recent surprise move by of the Fed of keeping the $85 billion bond
purchase program unchanged gave further boost to equity markets
across the globe.
This is especially true give that the broad U.S. equity fund – SPDR
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) – is up nearly 20.7% in the year-to-date time
frame.
At the same time, Europe has also been rebounding impressively on
rising consumer confidence, declining unemployment rates, firmer
currency, less concern on debt levels as well as improving
manufacturing and service sectors (read: 4 Outperforming ETFs
Leading Europe Higher).
In fact, the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain)
countries, often considered the weakest members in the euro zone,
have shown an impressive turnaround of late in Europe. ETFs
tracking this group have easily outpaced both SPY and the broad
European funds such as VGK and EZU over the trailing one-month
period:
Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK)
The much-troubled Greece appears to be in a better position than
where it was at the start of the year with signs of gradual
deceleration in the country’s longest recession. The economy shrank
4.6% in the second quarter, less than the 5% forecast and much
below the 5.6% decline in the first quarter.
Though high unemployment and bailout targets pose major risk to the
country’s growth story, the optimism in the euro zone, shift from
budget deficit to surplus and a strong tourism season is aiding
economy to move in the right direction going forward. This trend
can easily be seen from the performance of GREK, the only ETF
tracking the nation.
The ETF has gained over 14% over the trailing one month, indicating
a huge reversal in trend, which was deep in red. The product
manages an asset base of $62.6 million and is home to a small
basket of 22 companies (read: Greece ETF on the Rise, Can It
Continue?).
The ETF has heavy exposure to the top three firms – Coca Cola HBC
ADR, Piraeus Bank SA and Hellenic Telecom – that collectively
make up for roughly 30% of total assets. From a sector look,
consumer discretionary dominates the fund portfolio at 39%, closely
followed by financials (15%). The fund charges a fee of 65 basis
points on an annual basis.
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (EWP)
The Spanish economy is close to stabilization with contraction of
just 0.1% in the second quarter. It is expected that the country
will soon emerge from a long and deep recession by the end of the
year due to a gradual rise in exports while domestic demand remain
laggards.
Investors seeking to tap this opportunity could find EWP an
intriguing choice. The fund has accumulated AUM of $559 million and
holds a small basket of 25 securities. The product added nearly 8%
in the trailing one-month period while charging 50 bps in annual
fees.
The fund puts a higher allocation to the top three firms – Banco
Santander, Telefonica and BBVA – which make up for a combined 45.5%
of the total assets. Further, the ETF is heavily concentrated on
financials at 44% while telecom services (13.18%), industrials
(12.48%) and utilities (121.41%) round off to the next three spots
(see more in the Zacks ETF Center).
iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF (EWI)
Italy is showing early signs of bottoming out of its longest
post-war recession as the economy contracted less than expected in
the second quarter. While political crisis could disturb the
Italian recovery, the government expects economy to be back to
equilibrium in the third quarter and return to growth in the
fourth.
Improved consumer demand, pickup in industrial activity and fiscal
consolidation is expected to fuel growth in the economy. Investors
seeking to play this growing trend could focus on EWI, which holds
roughly two dozen Italian firms in its basket. The fund has amassed
$786.7 million in its AUM while charges 50 bps in annual fees. The
ETF gained nearly 6.5% in the trailing one-month period.
The product is heavily concentrated on the top firm, Eni, at 19.17%
of assets while other securities hold less than 7.2% share.
Further, the fund is focused from a sector perspective with
financials (29.91%) and energy (24.41%) taking the top two
positions.
iShares MSCI Ireland Capped Investable Market Index Fund
(EIRL)
The Irish economy has finally emerged from nine months of recession
with growth of 0.4% in the second quarter on the back of increasing
consumer spending, improving housing market, reviving domestic
demand as well as rising exports.
These growing fundamentals suggest that the nation would smoothly
exit its bailout program at the end of the year and reflect
political stability and reputation for the country. Further,
investors should note that Ireland is rapidly trying to emerge as a
stronger nation among the other PIIGS members. However, high public
debt and unemployment rates are still headwinds to economic
growth.
The Ireland ETF added over 5% over the trailing one month and
accumulated $90.6 million in AUM. The fund holds 25 securities with
heavy concentration in the top three firms – CRH Plc, Kerry Group
and ELAN Corp. – as these make up for the combined half of the
portfolio (read: S&P Upgrades Ireland Outlook: Time for the
Irish ETF?).
Additionally, the product is skewed toward materials at roughly
32%, while industrials and consumer staples take the next two
spots. The product charges 50 bps in fees per year from
investors.
Bottom Line
Although the PIIGS economy seems better positioned than many other
European countries in the coming months, it has a long way to go.
Investors should note that the overall outlook for the bloc is
still quite negative and that some more pain could be in store for
this group (see: all the European ETFs here)
We currently have a Zacks ETF Rank of 4 or ‘Sell’ rating on all the
four PIIGS countries. This suggests that the longer-term picture is
still bleak for these funds. Investors should look at other markets
in Europe – or at least broader funds – for exposure, rather than
taking risk on an unlikely rally continuing in PIIGS shares.
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ISHARS-MS IRLND (EIRL): ETF Research Reports
ISHARS-ITALY (EWI): ETF Research Reports
ISHARS-SPAIN (EWP): ETF Research Reports
GLBL-X/F GREC20 (GREK): ETF Research Reports
VANGD-FTSE EUR (VGK): ETF Research Reports
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