TEMPE, Ariz., Sept. 19, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- How will policy
and trade impact the economy going into 2019? What does the future
hold for growth, inflation and interest rates? Following four
Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in 2018 to cool the economy,
Ellen Zentner predicts two
additional Fed hikes in the first half of 2019.
The economist with the most accurate forecasts – four years in a
row – will deliver her predictions at an event in New York City on Oct.
16, 2018. Zentner will be honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award, regarded as one of the
best-known and longest-standing achievements in the field.
MEDIA NOTE: Journalists can RSVP to attend the
economic-forecasting-accuracy event in New York on Tuesday
October 16.
Zentner, chief U.S. economist and a managing director at Morgan
Stanley, has had the most accurate economic forecasts among the
nation's top economists for the years 2014 through 2017.
"Given the growing complexities of today's economic landscape, I
am honored to receive this prestigious award for accuracy in
forecasting. I share this with my team at Morgan Stanley, whose
hard work and dedication help produce the thoughtful, in-depth and
collaborative research our clients expect," said Zentner.
Zentner demonstrated amazing consistency, outshining some 50
competitors for this year's award, which is judged and sponsored by
the W. P. Carey School of Business
at Arizona State University. The
Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter is the source of
the forecasts used to select the winner.
"During the 2014-2017 period, GDP and CPI growth rates were
bouncing around while unemployment was on a steady downward path,"
said economics Professor Dennis
Hoffman, director of the L. William Seidman Research
Institute at Arizona State University's
W. P. Carey School of Business.
"Ellen was the panelist that foresaw these gyrations most
accurately. She caught the 2015 uptick in GDP and then the slower
growth in the following year, and she was spot-on with the CPI and
the unemployment rate. Her overall forecast error figures were the
lowest we have seen in some years."
With a keen eye toward early identifications of market-moving
trends, Zentner has been named to the "Bloomberg Best" list of top
forecasters. She has more than 20 years of experience as a Fed
watcher and markets-based economist.
Zentner joined Morgan Stanley in 2013 from Nomura Securities
International where she served as Senior Economist for fixed
income. Previously, she was senior economist at Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., and senior economist at the Texas State
Comptroller.
Zentner serves on various economic and academic advisory
panels.
She holds a bachelor of business administration and a master's
degree in economics from the University of
Colorado. Zentner and her husband are avid fly fishers and
live in Bronx, New York.
Tom Keene of Bloomberg Radio and
TV, a long-time colleague and friend, will present Zentner with the
award.
At the ceremony Zentner will deliver her 2019 economic
forecast, including these predictions:
- Growth is expected to slow significantly in 2019, as the
impulse from fiscal policy fades and trade acts as a restraint on
economic activity.
- Though direct government spending continues to contribute
positively to growth, the stimulus from tax policy is mostly
absorbed in 2018.
- Growth in business investment moderates in 2019, but still
helps to drive higher productivity.
- Household consumption holds up well through early 2019,
supported by higher disposable income and tax refunds. A higher
savings cushion alongside a largely fixed-rate household balance
sheet remain cycle extenders.
- Job growth puts further downward pressure on the unemployment
rate, which falls to 3.5 percent in 2019.
- A combination of temporary factors that had been depressing
core inflation have now abated, and core inflation should remain
comfortably at or above the Fed's two-percent goal.
- Following four hikes in 2018, the Fed hikes twice in 2019, in
March and June, where the hiking cycle will end.
Notable guests will attend the invitation-only award ceremony
Oct. 16 at the University Club in
New York, from 6 to 8 p.m. Journalists are asked to RSVP in
advance of the event.
Guests include:
- Amy Hillman, dean of ASU's W. P.
Carey School of Business
- Dennis Hoffman, professor of
economics and director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute
at the W. P. Carey School of
Business
- Hannah Klein, professor of
biochemistry, medicine and pathology at the NYU School of
Medicine
- Randell Moore, editor emeritus
of Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Established in 1976, Wolters
Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators is
synonymous with the latest in expert opinion on the future
performance of the U.S. economy. Each month, the newsletter
compiles the forecasts of 50 leading business economists for key
indicators of economic growth.
About the W. P. Carey School
of Business
The W. P. Carey School of
Business at Arizona State University is
one of the top ranked business schools in the United States. The school is
internationally regarded for its research productivity and its
distinguished faculty members, including a Nobel Prize winner.
Students come from more than 100 countries and include more than 50
National Merit Scholars. Visit www.wpcarey.asu.edu.
About Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is a leading global financial services
firm providing investment banking, securities, wealth management
and investment management services. With offices in more than 41
countries, the firm's employees serve clients worldwide including
corporations, governments, institutions and individuals. For more
information about Morgan Stanley, please visit
www.morganstanley.com.
MEDIA CONTACTS:
Rebecca Ferriter, ASU
W. P. Carey School of Business
(310) 871-9041
Rebecca.Ferriter@asu.edu
Paige Mandy
Morgan Stanley
(212) 761-3226
Paige.Mandy@morganstanley.com
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SOURCE W. P. Carey School of
Business at Arizona State
University