Outperform on Celanese - Analyst Blog
December 14 2011 - 1:22PM
Zacks
We maintain our Outperform recommendation on Celanese
Corporation (CE) after it reported excellent third-quarter
2011 results. Adjusted earnings were $1.27 per share, beating the
Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.11.
Quarterly revenue also grew 20% year over year to $1.81 billion,
primarily driven by higher pricing across all operating segments
and favorable currency impacts. The results surpassed the Zacks
Consensus Estimate of $1.69 billion.
Celanese is one of the world’s largest producers of acetyl
products, as well as a leading global producer of high-performance
engineered polymers. The company is also the world leader in VAM
and acetic acid production, with market shares of 30% and 28%,
respectively.
The company’s downstream units consume about two-thirds of the
production. Celanese’s global market share in the acetate tow
business is 30%. In the Engineered Products business, Celanese grew
6% per year with the bulk of sales coming from the auto
industry.
Celanese announced the expansion of ethylene vinyl acetate
("EVA") capacity at its Edmonton manufacturing facility, resulting
from strong growth in strategic and high-value segments. Global EVA
production increases are fueled by growth in the photovoltaic cell
industry in China, strong demand for EVA in other parts of Asia,
and demand for EVA in innovative applications like
controlled-release products and medical packaging. Celanese expects
its capacity to increase by up to 15% for higher vinyl acetate
content EVA grades in the second half of 2011.
However, Celanese is exposed to volatile raw material (natural
gas, ethylene and methanol) prices used in the production of basic
chemicals in the Acetyl Intermediates segment, principally
formaldehyde, acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer.
Celanese raised its full-year 2011 outlook, encouraged by the
strength of its third-quarter 2011 performance, its confidence in
its earnings growth programs, and its expectations for a continued
modest global economic recovery. The company now expects 2011
operating EBITDA to be at least $280 million, higher than 2010’s
results of $1,122 million.
In addition, adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to be
at least $1.30, higher than 2010’s results of $3.37, based on tax
rate and diluted share count of 17% and 159 million shares,
respectively.
The company also faces stiff competition from its larger peers
E.I. DuPont de Nemours and Co. (DD) and
The Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) in the Advanced
Engineered Material Segment, as well as in the Industrial
Specialties segment. Celanese’s balance sheet leverage is also
relatively high, limiting its financial flexibility.
Currently, Celanese has a short-term (1 to 3 months) Zacks #3
Rank (Hold) and a long-term (6 months and higher) Outperform
recommendation.
CELANESE CP-A (CE): Free Stock Analysis Report
DU PONT (EI) DE (DD): Free Stock Analysis Report
DOW CHEMICAL (DOW): Free Stock Analysis Report
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