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20 hours ago
$BABA is still setting up for a continued major move, with a potential 15-30% breakout ahead
By: Peter DiCarlo | February 9, 2025
• **$BABA** is still setting up for a continued major move, with a potential 15-30% breakout ahead. Since our $84 entry, we’re already up 25%, and momentum is strong.
BX Trender making higher highs now
Weekly chart turned green – signaling further expansion
Targets: $120 ? $132
Worst-case retracement: $97 (where I’ll look to add more)
This setup looks very strong, and I expect the expansion to continue into the coming weeks.
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DiscoverGold
4 days ago
BABA Stock Could Drop 6% After Feb. 12, According to This Wall Street Expert
By: 24/7 Wall St. | February 6, 2025
Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) is among the most notable and important e-commerce stocks globally. The China-based company dominates many markets in Southeast Asia, with its core commerce segment providing both retail and wholesale operations, while the company’s local consumer services division covers delivery platforms like Ele.me and navigation services like Amap. Cainiao handles logistics, and the Cloud segment includes Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk.
In a way, Alibaba is a company I’d probably most equate to an Amazon in the U.S. market. This is a company that’s a cloud computing giant with a massive e-commerce footprint. As such, Alibaba’s fortunes are closely intertwined with overall growth in the Asia Pacific region, and make this company a great option for investors looking for exposure to secular growth trends in this region of the world.
The company is set to report its upcoming earnings on February 12, with analysts expecting significant volatility with BABA stock, considering the company’s historical pattern of performance in and around earnings. There’s a 67% probability of declining and an average swing of ±5.8%, so let’s dive into whether Alibaba has 6% upside or downside from here.
Here’s What Wall Street Expects
Wall Street analysts are expecting a relatively strong quarter from Alibaba, with the Chinese cloud and e-commerce giant expected to report revenue of $39.15 billion which will translate into $2.75 of earnings per share. Indeed, many are touting this report as a key test for investor confidence. Market sentiment leans slightly bearish, reflecting broader concerns about China’s economic landscape.
I think such positioning and sentiment certainly makes sense, given the existing rhetoric around a potential tariff war between Trump and Xi. The Chinese economy is also one that hasn’t been firing on all cylinders of late, so there are certainly reasons why many in the market are taking a somber tone heading into this print.
That said, it’s also true that the consensus analyst price target for BABA stock currently stands at $124.40, implying 35.5% upside over the next year or so. And some analysts are ramping up bullish targets on the company, with Jefferies analysts set a more ambitious $142 target. Analysts at Jefferies have cited Alibaba’s expanding cloud and international commerce sectors as key growth drivers that could propel the stock higher on outperformance.
Beyond its financials, Alibaba’s earnings will serve as a broader economic indicator, offering insights into China’s consumer behavior and business climate. The company has faced slower domestic growth, but analysts are keen to assess whether its e-commerce and cloud divisions can sustain momentum. Strong results in these areas could restore investor confidence, while weaker-than-expected performance may lead to increased volatility.
So, Will Alibaba Trade Higher or Lower in 2025?
There are certainly reasons to believe Alibaba is poised for potential growth in 2025, given the number of growth catalysts underpinning the company’s overall business. Alibaba’s strategic investments in artificial intelligence (AI) remain a major focus, with the launch of Qwen2.5-VL (an advanced AI model) expected to expand Alibaba’s capabilities across multiple industries. These innovations could improve operational efficiency and drive adoption of AI-powered services.
That’s to say nothing of China’s underlying growth trends, with its middle class still growing and overall demand for goods and services (consumption) continuing to rise.
The thing is, Alibaba’s focus on core markets in Asia has been its downfall of late. There are risks to investing in China, simply put. And for U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, these risks remain very high right now.
Accordingly, this is a stock I think investors who aren’t comfortable with volatility may want to steer clear of right now. I do take the consensus view that risks are likely tilted to the downside, at least for now. Accordingly, this is a stock that may be worth considering post-earnings, when investors have a bit more clarity into where Alibaba is headed from here.
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tw0122
1 week ago
BABA see you in the $50s. 90% of their business small packages. Huge hit by Trump on small packages..
Trump’s executive orders directing 25% levies on Canada and Mexico — plus a 10% duty on China — specify that the “de minimis” exemption for small packages no longer applies. Under the exemption, products below that dollar amount are able to enter the US without tariffs — a boon for China’s e-commerce retailers who ship often cheaper wares directly to consumers in the US.
Regardless, the impact of the change threatens to fall most squarely on China, affecting retailers including Alibaba, JD.com Inc., PDD Holdings Inc.’s Temu and fashion-focused Shein. American shoppers and companies imported about $48 billion worth of shipments from the world under that loophole in the first nine months of last year, according to US Customs and Border Protection estimates.
Approximately a billion packages are estimated to enter the USA under the cover of the de minimis exemption. This is where the enforcement mechanism of the “External Revenue Service” combines with the tariff approach and the “state of emergency.” President Trump imposed the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a nearly 50-year law that gives the president sweeping power to impose sanctions after declaring an emergency.The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home.Congress in 2015 then raised the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800. However, the e-commerce world exploded, and Chinese companies began using the de minimis loophole to ship cheap goods (ex. Temu and Shein) into the USA direct to consumers without paying any customs duty.It was reported last year that the U.S. was on track to receive a billion packages through the de minimis loophole that aren’t taxed and don’t have customs slips saying what they are. Making matters worse, illegal items are slipping through the cracks, including, knockoffs, unsafe items and even chemicals used to make fentanyl. The worst abuser that exploits this de minimis loophole is, by far, China.
DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Alibaba (BABA) Stock Pops on AI Model Performance Claims
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | January 29, 2025
• Alibaba claims its Qwen 2.5 AI model surpassed DeepSeek-V3
• Options volume is running at five times the intraday average amount
Big Tech sold off on Monday after reports that Chinese startup DeepSeek created an artificial intelligence (AI) model that outperformed OpenAI's at a substantially lower cost. Now, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) is joining the race, claiming its own AI model Qwen 2.5 surpassed DeepSeek-V3.
Options traders are blasting the security in response, with 740,000 calls and 150,000 puts exchanged so far -- five times the overall volume typically seen at this point. Most popular is the weekly 1/31 100-strike call, where new positions are being opened.
Options bulls were targeting the stock before today, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), BABA's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 8.66 ranks in the 99th annual percentile. This suggests that calls have been much more popular than usual of late.
BABA was last seen up 2.2% at $98.10 at last glance -- its highest level since October. The security is on track for its seventh win in the last eight days and fourth-straight pop, after yesterday securing its best daily percentage gain since Dec. 9. Plus, BABA sports a 36.2% year-over-year lead.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Alibaba $BABA Watchlist...
By: Peter DiCarlo | January 19, 2025
• Alibaba has reentered our watchlist as the weekly BX Trender has confirmed higher lows, positioning us within the smart money zone. This zone represents a significantly discounted area where bulls typically step in to support the structure. Additionally, there's a descending wedge that appears to be testing a breakout.
Over the next few weeks, my targets are $90, $95, and then $100 once we fill the gap. I'll implement a stop loss strategy where the weekly BX Trender turns red or starts making lower lows. I'll also personally follow the trading bots for precise entry and exit points.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
BABA has been on our radar for the past few weeks. Initially, we entered a bit early using the 2BX settings, but now with the stronger 5X, we've confirmed higher lows—this marks our first indication of a real bottom...
By: Peter DiCarlo | January 5, 2025
• BABA has been on our radar for the past few weeks. Initially, we entered a bit early using the 2BX settings, but now with the stronger 5X, we've confirmed higher lows—this marks our first indication of a real bottom.
From here, the key is breaking through $85. Beyond that, there's little volume up to the equal high of $110. While there's still a slight chance of another price rejection and a sell-off into the smart money zone, the current risk versus reward ratio is so favorable that I believe taking this trade is more than justified since our entry criteria have been met.
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fwb
1 month ago
China must have the WORST economic Advisors on the planet.
One of the LARGEST POP on the planet and BABA can't grow their PPS.
BABA was hot at the start, maybe that was because the CHINESE GOV, couldn't figure out how they were going to CONTROL it, In other words, FU-K it up....... and when they did, this is what we get......
You Think the CCP would bend over backwards to MAKE BABA the #1 Ecom retailer in the WORLD
DiscoverGold
3 months ago
$BABA - The action in 2024 has been similar to the action in 2016. A monthly close above the upper BB in September, followed by a down October and down November so far. As long as it closes the year above the 20 month MA, BABA is likely to trade at much higher prices in 2025.
By: CyclesFan | November 15, 2024
• $BABA - The action in 2024 has been similar to the action in 2016. A monthly close above the upper BB in September, followed by a down October and down November so far. As long as it closes the year above the 20 month MA, BABA is likely to trade at much higher prices in 2025.
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DiscoverGold
3 months ago
2 China-Based Stocks in the Midst of Steep Pullbacks
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | November 14, 2024
• Shares of Alibaba and JD.Com are both notably lower this quarter
• JD.Com reported earnings today, and Alibaba enters the confessional tomorrow
While Wall Street has enjoyed a post-election rally, U.S.-listed Chinese stocks haven't fared so well. Donald Trump's U.S. presidential victory came with promises of higher tariffs for China, but the country's fiscal stimulus package is also weighing on equities.
Specifically, China's National People's Congress announced 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in a debt swap program to help local governments overcome debt burdens, but investors were underwhelmed by the lack of measures to help the housing market and personal consumption.
For JD.Com Inc (NASDAQ:JD) and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE:BABA), earnings are also a factor.
JD.Com Shows Mixed Quarterly Results
E-commerce giant JD.Com reported third-quarter results, and its quarterly profit and revenue jumped 48% and 5.1% year over year, respectively, though the latter fell short of expectations. A rebound in electronics and home appliances, as well as sustained momentum in general merchandise helped drive its earnings beat, but fears of China's economic position are dragging JD.
The security was last seen 4.2% lower at $34.20, extending its quarter-to-date dip to 14.3%. Shares notched a roughly 19-month high of $47.08 on Oct. 24, but the election and stimulus news resulted in a sharp pullback. JD.com stock is now pacing for its worst weekly performance since May.
Options traders are lighting up JD's options pits. So far, 124,000 calls and 37,000 puts have traded hands -- 3 times the average intraday volume. Most popular is the December 45 call, followed closely by the January 17, 2025 50-strike call.
What to Expect from Alibaba's Earnings Report
Alibaba is slated to report fiscal second-quarter results before the open tomorrow, Nov. 15. Per Zacks, the e-commerce name is expected to show earnings of $2.26 per share on revenue of $33.47, the former an 8.63% year-over-year profit gain and the latter representing a 5.61% 12-month rise.
Alibaba stock has a mostly subdued post-earnings past, falling lower after five of its last eight reports. Plus, after its August report, BABA managed a meager 0.1% gain. Over the last two years, the security averaged a 4.9% next-day swing, regardless of direction, which is nearly half the 8.7% move options traders are pricing in this time around.
Ahead of the event, the security is 1.6% lower at $90.54. Shares have managed just one positive weekly performance since the week ended Oct. 11, and are pacing for another substantial weekly drop. BABA sports a 14.7% deficit for the quarter, but remains 17.8% higher since the start of 2024. Year over year, Alibaba stock is up 4.9%.
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fwb
4 months ago
Next Earnings Announcement
11/21/2024 Before Market Open
Expected Earnings
2nd Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced 11/21/2024 before market open. With 16 analysts covering BABA, the consensus EPS estimate is $2.04, and the high and low estimates are $2.43 and $1.61, respectively.
Previous Dividend Payment
$1
Previous Pay Date
July 12, 2024
Previous Ex-Date
June 13, 2024
Frequency
Semi-annual
Annual Dividend Rate (IAD)
$2
Annual Dividend Yield
2.08%
fwb
4 months ago
Alibaba’s AI-Powered Cancer Detection Tool Recognized on Fortune’s 2024 Change the World List
NEW YORK, Sept. 25, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Fortune's 10th annual Change the World list is led by a group of space pioneers pushing the boundaries of innovation. They include SpaceX, operator of the Starlink satellite internet service; GHGSat, the leading space-based greenhouse gas emissions monitor; and Rocket Lab, the creator of a revolutionary reusable orbital-class small rocket.
Fortune's 2024 list showcases 52 companies globally that have created significant social or environmental impact through their profit-driven strategies and operations, spanning a range of industries including technology, space, e-commerce, and health care. This year's list includes 30 from North America, 12 from Europe, 8 from Asia and Australia, one from Africa, and one from South America.
Fortune Executive Features Editor Matt Heimer said, "This year's edition, our 10th, showcases 52 businesses that continue the Change the World list's legacy of combining public-spiritedness with the profit motive. These companies let their actions speak for themselves—harnessing the creative impulses of capitalism to address social problems and generating revenue while doing so."
Alongside space innovation, the Fortune Change the World list highlights technology companies that showcase AI's potential for positive impact and that are dedicated to using technology for the greater good. Companies showcasing innovative approaches include Ello (No. 5), which deploys AI to address childhood literacy gaps with personalized reading tutorials;
Alibaba Group (No. 8), which detects pancreatic cancer lesions with advanced technology;
The top 10 on the Fortune 2024 Change the World List are:
1 GHGSat, Rocket Lab, SpaceX; (Canada, U.S., U.S.)
2 Grab (Singapore)
3 Viettel Group (Vietnam)
4 Maven Clinic (U.S.)
5 Ello (U.S.)
6 Globant (Argentina)
7 Cognizant and Cisco (U.S.)
8 Alibaba Group (China)
9 Commercial International Bank (Egypt)
10Honeywell (U.S.)
DiscoverGold
4 months ago
Bull of the Day: Alibaba Group (BABA)
By: Zacks Investment Research | October 23, 2024
Alibaba Company Overview
Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock Alibaba Group (BABA) is a Chinese e-commerce juggernaut that runs popular storefronts such as AliExpress, which caters to global shoppers, and Taobao, which serves its domestic market segment. Like its U.S. counterpart Amazon (AMZN), BABA has businesses that stretch beyond e-commerce, such as its Alibaba Cloud service. Launched in 2009, the cloud business is one of the biggest in China and has ballooned to the second-largest revenue source for the company. Alibaba also benefits from strong momentum in its international wholesale, digital payments, and logistics businesses.
China Stimulus and Recovering Economy
The Chinese government completed a full 180 degree turn in 2024 and delivered a massive stimulus package. As if slashing interest rates and loosening restrictions weren’t enough, Chinese government officials promise to do more moving forward. People’s Bank of China Governor Pan said that the reserve requirement ratio could be reduced again this year and that the loan prime rate will likely be lowered on Monday. Meanwhile, China recently reported more robust growth numbers, and retail sales impressed investors. A flood of liquidity and a more robust economy bode well for Chinese stocks like BABA. Also, understand that the Chinese economy is coming from such a trough that even a reversion to the mean would result in a massive move for these stocks.
BABA’s Dirt-Cheap Valuation
Though BABA shares have gained a healthy 34% year-to-date, its valuation remains at bargain basement lows. For instance, BABA’s price-to-sales ratio of 1.88x is close to all-time lows and is well off the all-time high of 18x in 2018.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BABA Stock Repurchase Program
Alibaba is in the middle of a massive share repurchase program. The company bought back shares on almost every trading day in September. On October 17th, BABA bought back more than $17 million worth of shares. Share buybacks can be bullish because they reduce the number of shares outstanding. Apple (AAPL) is an excellent precedent of this phenomenon. AAPL shares stagnated for years before Carl Icahn and other institutional investors urged the company to repurchase shares.
Smart Money is Invested in BABA
The 13F disclosure requires institutional investors with more than $100 million in assets under management to divulge their positions. The most recent 13F disclosures revealed that BABA was a top holding for some savvy investors such as Michael Burry and David Tepper.
HK Listing & Stock Connect Program to Boost Investor Access
Millions of investors will gain access to BABA shares through a Hong Kong listing and China’s “Stock Connect” program. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS ) expect $10-$20 billion inflows into the stock.
First Pullback After Breakout
BABA shares are retreating towards their 50-day moving average for the first time since the massive stimulus-induced breakout. Though there is room for more downside, the first pullback of this nature after a major breakout is typically buyable.
Image Source: TradingView
Bottom Line
China’s dominant e-commerce player is making a comeback driven by strength in its international business. BABA enjoys a dirt-cheap valuation, increased investor access, and institutional sponsorship.
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