Foreign Markets Are Caught in Dollar's Web
October 14 2019 - 7:07PM
Dow Jones News
By Paul Vigna
The capital markets and global economy are caught in a feedback
loop amplified by U.S. politics and the U.S. dollar. The question
is how long investors will suffer.
The U.S. is embroiled in a trade war with China, President Trump
is under an impeachment inquiry, and the 2020 election already
looks as bitter as 2016. Those U.S.-centric issues are causing
havoc in the markets, driving investors to havens.
Because the dollar is one of those havens, it is being driven
higher, not lower. That's hurting the very investors trying to
avoid the pain spreading by U.S. issues in the first place.
The trade-weighted U.S. Dollar Index hit a record high in early
September of 131.58, and one month later is near that level
again.
The dollar is an asset unlike any other for one reason: its
position as the world's reserve currency. That makes it the world's
pre-eminent mechanism for world trade and foreign exchange.
"It sits at the center of everything," said Lawrence McDonald,
who writes the Bear Traps Report.
Because of that centrality, when investors are feeling
uncertain, they tend to flee to the dollar. Usually that isn't a
problem. These aren't usual times, though. Uncertainty is in the
air, driven by the U.S. itself.
"The remarkable strength of the dollar in 2019 fits the
narrative we all know: fear of global recession caused by a
seemingly endless U.S.-China trade conflict," said Nicholas Colas,
co-founder of DataTrek Research.
That dollar strength might give President Trump fits and hurt
U.S. multinationals, but it also makes dollar-denominated debt more
expensive to service in local markets. And it hurts foreign nations
importing goods, which feeds inflation. Because the dollar is so
central to the markets, though, foreigners currently don't have a
choice.
Foreign nations have been issuing dollar-denominated debt for
decades. But its growth has reached the point, Mr. McDonald said,
where the Federal Reserve can't handle monetary policy the way it
used to. "The problem is, the higher the dollar goes, the more it
crushes the global economy," he said.
That exact dynamic was cited by Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney
in August as a reason to develop an alternative reserve currency,
one that would be multinational and even possibly digital, a sort
of multi-government-backed bitcoin.
He's not alone. There's growing reluctance overseas to remaining
beholden to U.S. policies at a time when it's hurting economies
back home -- and when the U.S. share of global GDP is
shrinking.
Mr. Carney's idea of a new reserve currency remains years off,
if indeed it ever comes. Investors aren't likely to wait that long,
though.
The possibility of a weak trade deal, Mr. McDonald said, along
with all the election and impeachment risks in the U.S., will be
enough to convince investors that overseas markets are actually a
more certain bet than U.S. markets.
"An overwhelming balance of uncertainty has sailed across the
pond," he wrote, "and we must be prepared for a colossal migration
of capital in search of certainty."
Write to Paul Vigna at paul.vigna@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 14, 2019 18:52 ET (22:52 GMT)
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