EARNINGS PREVIEW: US Media Cos Hurt By Fewer Ads, Internet
April 24 2009 - 10:01AM
Dow Jones News
TAKING THE PULSE: Diversified media companies continue to be
plagued by declining advertising and a consumer shift to the
Internet. Now, the recession has slowing the growth of online
advertising as well. The newspaper industry is in dire straits,
with papers closing or going online-only. Local television stations
face many of the same problems, including projected 2009 ad
declines of 20% to 30%. Faring better is cable TV, which collects
subscriber fees. Movie studios have seen an increase in attendance
in 2009 from the past two years, although DVD sales, which are
responsible for much of studios' profits, are still falling.
COMPANIES TO WATCH:
Time Warner Inc. (TWX) - reports April 29
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters
anticipate earnings of 38 cents a share on revenue of $6.81
billion. A year earlier, the media conglomerate reported net income
of 21 cents, unadjusted for the 1-for-3 reverse stock split which
occurred last month, on revenue of $11.42 billion. The 2008 results
also included the since spun-off Time Warner Cable Inc. (TWC).
Key Issues: With the spinoff complete, Time Warner's next
challenge is deciding what to do with struggling Internet unit AOL.
Meanwhile, its Warner Bros. Entertainment plans to sell vintage
movies previously unreleased on DVD directly to consumers to
generate fresh revenue as DVD sales continue to slump.
Viacom Inc. (VIA, VIAB) - reports April 30
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts are predicting earnings of 26
cents a share on revenue of $2.97 billion, down from 42 cents and
$3.12 billion, respectively.
Key Issues: The owner of cable-TV channels such as MTV and
Comedy Central has been making deals with advertisers who market
their products across television, the Web and mobile devices. But
recently, it has seen lower ratings at some of its cable channels.
Among problems worrying analysts are higher startup losses at its
pay-TV venture and lower "Rock Band" hardware sales.
Walt Disney Co. (DIS) - reports May 5
Wall Street Expectations: The company is projected to earn 41
cents a share on revenue of $8.15 billion, down from 58 cents and
$8.71 billion, respectively.
Key Issues: Disney, the largest U.S. media company by market
value, is less dependent on ad dollars than other media giants, but
the recession has hurt its theme-parks business. Disney has
responded by eliminating 1,900 jobs and offering discounts and
promotions. Disney, like other movie studios, has been suffering
from soft DVD sales.
News Corp. (NWS, NWSA) - reports May 6
Wall Street Expectations: The owner of Dow Jones & Co.,
publisher of this newswire, is forecast to post earnings of 16
cents a share on revenue of $7.7 billion. News Corp. reported
year-earlier net income of 91 cents amid a $1.7 billion asset-swap
gain on revenue of $8.75 billion.
Key Issues: The media giant has eliminated jobs, frozen salaries
and consolidated operations to cope with continuing ad declines.
The company also named a raft of new executives after Rupert
Murdoch's No. 2 man, Peter Chernin, said he will leave in June.
That includes the new-media business, with AOL veteran Jon Miller
recently taking over.
CBS Corp. (CBS) - reports May 7
Wall Street Expectations: Analysts forecast earnings of 11 cents
a share on revenue of $3.31 billion, down from 36 cents and $3.65
billion, respectively.
Key Issues: CBS is more heavily dependent on ad revenue than
other media companies as it has local TV, radio and billboard
operations. But its broadcast TV network has been doing well in the
ratings, and revenue not tied to ads is expected to remain steady.
The company's big dividend cut in February offers a cash cushion
for debt payment.
(The Thomson Reuters estimate and year-earlier net may not be
comparable due to one-time items and other adjustments.)
-By Kathy Shwiff, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5975;
kathy.shwiff@dowjones.com
(Nat Worden contributed to this report.)