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Fannie Mae (QB)

Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAK)

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FNMAK Discussion

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RickNagra RickNagra 1 minute ago
Post was deleted.  What did it say Kip ?
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2221 2221 17 minutes ago
When the market realizes the true value there will be moass like never seen before..all aboard
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EclipseDefender58 EclipseDefender58 21 minutes ago
You have a link for this reference?
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kip128932156 kip128932156 21 minutes ago
https://x.com/billackman/status/1877691302323597434?s=46&t=L_hszGlrG7Qfo9Ksmln_mQ
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CatBirdSeat CatBirdSeat 1 hour ago
KBW Upgrades Freddie, Fannie $7 nearterm target on Craig Phillips hire
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JSmith5 JSmith5 2 hours ago
We know everything

I think these are the 2 stocks - out of the universe of all stocks in all countries - where that would be tough to do.

These are a great speculative play - but it's the kind of play where so many unexpected things have happened in the past 16 years that it would be impossible to say with 100% confidence where this is going to end up. I would be real careful about recommending this to others as a sure thing. But I would not hesitate to recommend this as, what it is, a great speculative play - with a ton of risk and potentially great upside. These are full disclose, due diligence stocks in extremis. And we can't know what we don't know.

In my favorite line from the movie Animal House, the character Otter says to Flounder, "You can't spend your whole life worrying about your mistakes! You fd up... you trusted us!" I just want folks to avoid having to say this to their families and friends.

Nats
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QueenVic QueenVic 2 hours ago
WOO HOO! The persistence, and the proactiveness is showing the facts ...

๐Ÿ’ฒR E P A I D๐Ÿ’ฒ
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navycmdr navycmdr 2 hours ago
$Boooooooom ! Former Treasury Official, Craig Phillips MBS desk chief joins Freddie Mac

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navycmdr navycmdr 2 hours ago
$Bazinga ! - Bill Ackman retweet of my

Craig Phillips video that the

TAXPAYER has been REPAID !

currentl count is 206,000 views ๐Ÿ‘๏ธ .....

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trunkmonk trunkmonk 4 hours ago
GSE. Up listed. Yes they will and itโ€™s why it rushed above 4.
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 5 hours ago
U r spot on, and commons are now at $5, can be unlisted and they hate it. donโ€™t let them drag u down into their pit of deceit and deception, keep ur eye on the prize. They are angry hate filled people and people like Thompson and Carney are full of it.
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 6 hours ago
Interesting, KTCarneyCircus Clowns for years have been all over social media saying commons would fail, all the way up to $5, and they were so sure of themselves, they keep doing it. I guess if they stop it would be an admission they were always wrong and clueless about everything, including Ackman. Ouch. I guess someday someone will listen to the swollen medulla oblongata chantings, and make no money, no wonder they have no following, hide behind aliasโ€™s and have no names, no good reputations, and made up fantasies that are based on facts out of context that are completely void of HERA, and lead to advice that make u broke. Iโ€™ll stick with Ackman.
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mrfence mrfence 6 hours ago
I wouldn't turn them down. Yellen just just needs to harvest a loss on her way out da door.
Yellen has just offered me 2 SPS in Fannie. But I think they are worthless.
Give her $2. I'll loan it to yah. Then cancel the SPS, and I'll forgive your debt.
WE WYNN! $FMCC~ $FNMA~

Where have you been for 4 years Fully Diluted? Oh, and my metaverse girlfriend thinks your cute.
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 6 hours ago
Others will say the same thing when GSE common stocks are at $50, and they tried to get them to buy at $5.
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Viking61 Viking61 7 hours ago
Obama said; Don did your kids buy a crap load of Fannie and Freddie commons? Is that why theyโ€™re not holding public office this time?

Don replied yup sure thing do you think that weโ€™re going to to watch Hunter buy them up and not us?

Obama replied; my thoughts exactly and both laughed!
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Horseman Country Horseman Country 7 hours ago
I tried like crazy to get my family interested in the opportunity....especially when the twins were in the $0.50 range.
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Viking61 Viking61 7 hours ago
I tell my nieces and nephews that didnโ€™t buy in when Iโ€™ve been telling them to for the last eight years. That if you think that the stocks are going to 30,50,100 per share then itโ€™s still cheap at $5.
They are just pissed off because the others that did buy in below .70 are now up $150,000. They want the 40-50,000 shares that others have. Such is life! GLTA!!
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MRJ25 MRJ25 8 hours ago
Yes, in my family too.
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Viking61 Viking61 8 hours ago
Many in our own families are kicking themselves now at this current share price.
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Barron4664 Barron4664 8 hours ago
Thanks for the response. Im working on it. Takes time to do it right. I see again you refuse to address the argument made. APA is certainly not closed by Collins. In 16 years, no one has filed a lawsuit alleging dereliction of duty of the Director using the Charter Act, and SS Act of 1992. By the way, the APA claims I make apply to the Treasury as well. I haven't even mentioned the arbitrary agency action of the accounting standard by not defining what tempory is to avoid consolidation. Or the purchase of 200 billion of MBS on the open market using TARP funds in 2008. Collins case was soly about actions of the Agency acting as  Conservator. As the Safety and Soundness act clearly says, the Director is not the Agency. Director has a statutory duty to ensure the charter acts and the Safety and Soundness Act are followed. Even if the GSE is run by the FHFA as conservator. HERA did not remove the safety and soundness duties of the Director in the S&S act. Your avoidance of the key elements of my arguments in your responses, suggests that you don't know how to debate these points. This is promising. You sure you don't want to join in the fight? Would love your help. 
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Ricco79 Ricco79 8 hours ago
Two weeks ago I would not have thought that we could reach $6 before January 16 or January 20. But now I think it's already possible because of the Thompson resignation. She knows that otherwise she would have been kicked out on January 21. Secondly, Trump may have to announce today or next week who will succeed her.. If a name comes along that is good for us, the share price will rise sharply.
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TightCoil TightCoil 8 hours ago
FNMA - FMCC
Big Fear Ackman is Pump and Dupe
Be Very Afraid - Tremble with Fear
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RickNagra RickNagra 9 hours ago
Ackman is smart. Social media is the best way to promote GSE public awareness. Everyone is on social media these days so it is the best way to communicate. Best way to present the facts. It is up to each and every new investor if they decide to invest. As I always tell potential new investors this is the most complicated stock you are ever going to own. So many working parts. We all here know what is going on but we have an advantage in that we have been here for years and years. We know everything. But for someone brand new here it is very complicated and somewhat scary. This is why January 16 is so important. Hopefully lots of people tune in to the Ackman Space Session on X and make up their own mind.

Devils advocate on Bill Ackmann

A man who should be more of behind the doors pushing and was expected to be behind doors making the chess move for the release and working with the govt is tweeting non stop all of a sudden

Does that mean he has fallen out of the circle and is using social media to raise noise?

Just a contrarian opinion
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EternalPatience EternalPatience 9 hours ago
6 $ tomorrow I think

50 cents for Sandra and 50 cents for Craig Philips/loss of one day of raise
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EternalPatience EternalPatience 9 hours ago
What were a trump and Obama so pally pally talking. A deal not to release the 11k docs? 
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imbellish imbellish 9 hours ago
Keep shorting and get rekt n00b
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The Man With No Name The Man With No Name 9 hours ago
That's right, he's pumping. If he was so sure of this position he wouldn't be all over social media.
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RickNagra RickNagra 9 hours ago
This is true. I often read the responses on X. Some people say pump and dump. Others are worried the government will wipe out their investment upon release. We all know that is not going to happen but convincing other people is not that easy. Nothing we can do about it. In the end they will be kicking themselves for not investing. That's their tough luck.

There are still a lot of skeptical people out there, but even the skeptical people should realize that the current PPS is way too low.
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imbellish imbellish 9 hours ago
Raising a hand for those Internet plumbers that made this post and reach possible
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imbellish imbellish 9 hours ago
The last public price target he gave was 8 bucks and he can be sued for misdirection for the latest one
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EternalPatience EternalPatience 9 hours ago
Devils advocate on Bill Ackmann

A man who should be more of behind the doors pushing and was expected to be behind doors making the chess move for the release and working with the govt is tweeting non stop all of a sudden 

Does that mean he has fallen out of the circle and is using social media to raise noise?

Just a contrarian opinion
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The Man With No Name The Man With No Name 9 hours ago
People who insist upon converting pref shares what ratio are you assigning for them? 4 to 1? 5 to 1? I donโ€™t think itโ€™ll happen but Iโ€™m curious how you are deciding this.

You can forget ratios and numbers games. It will be determined based upon the Newco Enterprise Value....as determined by TBTF bankers and their Wall Street insider buddies in conjunction with Treasury. If the EV is $200B as KT posited below, Treasury will be at odds with JPS to determine who gets what, but I recommend listening to what John Paulson said....he expects Treasury to own 90-95% of the Newco.
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MRJ25 MRJ25 9 hours ago
There are still a lot of skeptical people out there, but even the skeptical people should realize that the current PPS is way too low.
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The Man With No Name The Man With No Name 9 hours ago
John Paulson, a key Trump donor who turned down the Treasury Secretary job because of "complex financial investments" (widely understood to be his large FnF junior pref position), said that he expects Treasury to end up with 90-95% of FnF's common stock.

Exchanging the current juniors for commons adds $33B to CET1 capital in an instant at no cost to the companies. This is important because the CET1 capital requirement is one that FnF will have to meet in order to be classified as "adequately capitalized" by HERA outside of conservatorship.

Even at a market cap of $200B for Fannie Mae only, Treasury owning 90% of the common only leaves $20B for the juniors ($19B total face value) and legacy common. A full junior pref conversion leaves $1B behind for the common, or around 86 cents per share.

This goes down if the P/E at the time of pref exchange (senior, junior, or both) is imputed to be lower, or if capital needs to be raised, or if 90% isn't enough for Treasury.

An investment in the commons is highly risky, especially at current prices. Don't be blinded by huge price targets. Look at the incentives for the important players, consider what is probable (as opposed to what is merely possible), and tread carefully.


People would rather listen to talking heads and Ackman as he's more or less resorted to political pumping.

90-95% according to Paulson, which also means Paulson wouldn't doubt that he won't recover 100% on his preferreds. 86 cents would be a best case, grand slam outcome.

I'm not Paulson but my guess is Treasury at 92-93%, JPS with the rest sans some charity to legacy common.
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navycmdr navycmdr 9 hours ago
Bill Ackman retweet just 152,000 views

........ so far

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The Man With No Name The Man With No Name 10 hours ago
Epic meltdown to 5 cents.

I wouldn't doubt it one bit.
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MRJ25 MRJ25 10 hours ago
Come Friday, it'll be alright.
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RickNagra RickNagra 10 hours ago
I am a bit concerned about the upcoming Ackman Space Session on January 16.  So far there are 4000 registered yet Ackman has 1.5 million followers.  Where is everyone ?  Perhaps Ackman needs to advertise more.  Spread the word.  I am hoping for 750,000 to register.  But have no worries.  I will sound the whale horn continuously until we reach this target number.
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Sogo Sogo 10 hours ago
$153.48 becomes $30.60 after 80% dilution. Ackmanโ€™s estimate of low $30โ€™s after release is thus spot-on based on that Peter Lynch Fair Value of $153.48. Iโ€™m not predicting that dilution, just found it interesting that the Lynch and Ackman models are so close.

Iโ€™m assuming the Lynch Fair Value doesnโ€™t take into account exercising warrants, and probably doesnโ€™t take into account any decision on the settling of senior preferred, etc.
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Stern is Bald Stern is Bald 10 hours ago
C Phillips saying I am for shareholders rights makes me think he understands that the warrants granted until the loan +10% was repaid has been satisfied... perfect scenario but we'll see 
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imbellish imbellish 11 hours ago
congrats on the bill ackman re-tweet
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lordsmoney lordsmoney 11 hours ago
Donโ€™t bring AIG onto this board. AIGโ€™s case is different from FNMA because AIG repaid its debt through equity issuance due to its inability to pay off its obligations. If Fnmaโ€™s common shares are diluted, it would likely be a political issue related to capital requirements, making AIGโ€™s case inapplicable.
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Viking61 Viking61 11 hours ago
Big time in the old town tomorrow!!!
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Fully Diluted Fully Diluted 11 hours ago
Yellen has just offered me 2 SPS in Fannie. But I think they are worthless.๐Ÿค”
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jcromeenes jcromeenes 11 hours ago
Tomorrow is shaping up to be an exciting day....At least it would appear that way.
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navycmdr navycmdr 12 hours ago
Boooooom ! - from Billionaire Bill Ackman -

a must watch for Fannie / Freddie followers !

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sortman sortman 12 hours ago
Average stock price over the previous 20 days.
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 12 hours ago
Letโ€™s hope our money is where his mouth is.
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EternalPatience EternalPatience 12 hours ago
Phillips is ina. Diff role now. What he said as TDY secretary at this time is just an opinion and he cannot decide anything from the gse side
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sortman sortman 12 hours ago
Read his Reddit
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