Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corporation (TNXP) News

Took an all day charting course many years ago put on by Investors Business Daily.
Learned a lot, but the one thing that bothered me about their approach was, while they
selected 'quality' companies based on what they had to see to consider trading a companys stock.

Their approach was to wait until the stock had come up off its lows and clear the price point that was,
when the consolidation phase commenced. The interesting part was, some pullbacks are good for 10-20%
from this price. And as I watched/studied, I was left to ask, why would you 'wait' if you could capture some of this
pullback. And if the breakout failed to clear that price point, you could sell out with something vs nothing at all..

So I did something to see if I could capture some of this 'lift off'..

So do I wait for a peak to confirm? And a perfect 'low' to buy off of? Naw, Burt Baruch said it best, 'made my fortune by
not buying at the lows, nor selling at the peak'.. and it works.. question is, does your charting approach get ya 'close' to
at least the lows.. agree, the peaks are much harder to see coming..

Short volume @ 98.6k, only 1.76% of float!
Keeps getting lower.
Is it because it’s getting expensive to borrow shares & harder to borrow due to very much lower outstanding shares!
Or Change in sentiment (as wolf7 wrote!), Risk/Reward not in favor of shorts!
It will soon become clear.
It’s getting interesting, for anyone who likes Suspense.

It wasn’t my intent to disagree with you.
I am looking for more.
Red to yellow, waiting on green light
It isn’t about buying at the bottom, nor selling at the top, which is impossible, not a good strategy.
I picked up some, to see it drop 30% more.
Short volume @ 98.6k
Keeps getting lower

HomerRomer

there is always the issue of, was the TRIAL and its design
robust enough to be accepted by the FDA.

I had ATNM that I had followed for several years, traded it
along the way as it gave. They passed their PH 3 with flying
colors and their development REALLY HELPED people dealing
with a type of cancer. REALLY HELPED.

They went to the fda, who obviously was consulted in the design
of the trial, the endpoints, with an NDA.

The only good thing was, I had not loaded up on shares because
there was a delay in the fdas acceptance of their submission (I had a
couple of thousand shares, but not as many as I planned to have for the
PDUFA date).

Turns out, the fda rejected the submission because the fda decided the
acceptance criteria the PH 3 met, wasn't good enough. Told ATNM
they had to rerun the trial and use new acceptance criteria.

My first reaction was, who in the hell wanted people to die, that instead of
saying, we will approve you cause you aren't hurting people, you are actually
helping people, but we want you to run a PH 4 with this as acceptance criteria.

So I am at the point, no matter how good things 'appear to be', don't rule out
a gov''t body surprising you at the last minute (for reasons)

pretty apparent we have differences in how we
view things. Cause I don't care about new highs, new lows
as part of the bottoming formation.

Cause that/s not the way my system works.

I already said, something changed on that big volume day
7 Feb.. said the sentiment 'shifted'..

and the chart is looking prettier since then..

and by the way, its been 12/13 days since the correction started.
2 weeks of the 5 weeks minimum I NORMALLY like to see for a good
bottoming action. But that big volume day on the 7th?? That really helped
to flush out a lot of folks.

next week will be interesting. IMO

THIS IS WHAT IT IS ALL GOING TO COME DOWN TO:
You said:
Did Tonix Pharmaceuticals TNX-102 SL for Fibromyalgia meet primary endpoints?
ChatGPT said:
Yes, Tonix Pharmaceuticals' TNX-102 SL for fibromyalgia met its primary endpoints in two Phase 3 clinical trials:

Phase 3 RELIEF Study (Completed December 2020):

Primary Endpoint: Significant reduction in daily pain compared to placebo (p=0.010).
Key Secondary Endpoints: Improved sleep quality, reduced fatigue, and enhanced global symptomatic and functional recovery.
Safety Profile: Generally well-tolerated with adverse events comparable to prior studies.
SEC.GOV
Phase 3 RESILIENT Study (Completed December 2023):

Primary Endpoint: Significant reduction in daily pain compared to placebo (p=0.00005).
Key Secondary Endpoints: Statistically significant improvements in sleep quality, reduced fatigue, and better overall fibromyalgia symptoms and function.
Safety Profile: Well-tolerated with no new safety signals observed.
IR.TONIXPHARMA.COM
These results support the efficacy and safety of TNX-102 SL for fibromyalgia management.


If a drug in the Fast Track program has no safety concerns and has successfully met both primary endpoints in its clinical trials, the likelihood of FDA approval increases significantly. Here's why:

Meeting Primary Endpoints:

Achieving both primary endpoints is a crucial factor. Primary endpoints are the main goals set out in the clinical trial (e.g., efficacy, specific measures of health improvements). If both of these are met, it suggests the drug is effective for its intended use, which is a key requirement for approval.
No Safety Concerns:

The absence of safety issues is another major factor that plays in favor of approval. The FDA places a high emphasis on the safety profile of a drug, and if no serious adverse effects are observed, the likelihood of approval is much higher.
Fast Track Advantages:

Since the drug has already met its endpoints and has no safety concerns, it’s possible that the Fast Track program could lead to an expedited review process and an earlier approval decision. The FDA's additional guidance and quicker responses during Fast Track may help the drug maker address any remaining issues efficiently, allowing for a smoother approval process.
Probability of Approval:

While there’s still a final evaluation of the overall risk/benefit profile of the drug, having demonstrated efficacy and a solid safety profile puts the drug in a very favorable position.
Historically, drugs that have met both primary endpoints and shown no major safety concerns have a very high chance of approval. Approval odds can rise to 80-90% or higher in such cases, as long as there are no other issues (like manufacturing concerns or inadequate post-market surveillance plans).
In summary, if the drug in question has met both primary endpoints and has no safety concerns, it's in a strong position to receive FDA approval, especially when fast-tracked. While approval isn’t guaranteed, the probability is much higher compared to drugs that haven’t reached these milestones.


In October 2024, Tonix submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for TNX-102 SL. The FDA accepted the NDA in December 2024, with a decision on approval expected in 2025.
GLOBENEWSWIRE.COM

If approved, TNX-102 SL would be the first new drug treatment option for fibromyalgia patients in 15 years.

90%+ chance of approval within the next 6 months will result in MASSIVE stock appreciation! Huge market for the drug also. That all makes this stock very undervalued at a $65 million market cap!!

New low on the 6th @ 10.83
Show me 2 days of higher high & higher lows post split low, to begin thinking of a bottom formed!

Might be time to send their IR a WTHell email asking about it..

At the same time, the chart is 'improving' from the standpoint of hinting
the bottom may be firming up (say MAYBE, cause it won't take much to hit
it and blow the trend into disarray).

But the chart is showing a slow change in momentum to the point its hinting
towards demand IS overriding selling?? Waiting for the chart to 'confirm' the
change.. Tempted to add some more this morn..

I had 20 shares sent out and STILL have not received my 1 share or any cash out ! WTF? They sent the shares out 2/5/25

1 billion shares prior to the split were authorized.
They spent/used 500 million of the 1 billion, that’s how the outstanding shares rose to 559 shares in Jan 25, right before the RS (which explains the action on tnxp).
This part is clear as daylight.
Then think about what you’re implying of the remaining number of shares. It implies 100,000,000,000 (100 billion on pre-split basis, since you’re keeping the same 1 billion basis.
The wording you highlighted in Red from the filing, it’s a fact, but subject to the RV.
Ask you broker, assuming the person you get is knowledgeable!
Ask your AI, like MSFT CoPilot

OK, we are going to disagree on the '#
of authorized shares' to sell cause normally
I would agree with you that the ratio would be
applied. Have to see what they say in their next
SEC filing that covers it.

Obviously, if I thought there were 1 Billion shares
'authorized', subtracting 5.6 Million in the float would
give around 994 Million give or take a few...

No, far from it.
1st, about 500 million shares out of the 1 billion shares were already exercised, I mean they were part of the outstanding shares when the RS took effect.
2nd, as far as the remaining 500 million shares, the same RS apply to them, since the 1 billion shares were authorized prior to the split, meaning at most another 5 million share can be released, added to outstanding shares.
You’re right, what was authorized can’t be changed, unless another filing is issued to do so.
The 1 billion shares wording can’t be changed, but the remaining shares are subject to the RS.
How did you come up with 994 million shares, when 500 million shares were subject to the RS, they were outstanding prior to the RS.

Effect of the R/split on authorized shares:

Pretty sure what this is saying is, the number of AUTHORIZED will remain
at 1 Billion, while the outstanding gets the 1-100 reduction. No?

Meaning they can now sell up to 994 Million shares at the ATM or offer
them as pension, or....
To close, I agree with you, with regard to the 1-100 should have been applied to the
authorized, but thats not what I am reading and why I made the comment in the
first place..

From page 3 of the filing on 2/3/2025:

Capitalization. The number of authorized shares of Common Stock was and will remain
at 1,000,000,000 following the Reverse Stock Split.

As of January 31, 2025 there were 559,044,486 shares of Common Stock outstanding.
As a result of the Reverse Stock Split, there will be approximately 5,590,445 shares of Common Stock
outstanding (subject to adjustment due to the effect of rounding fractional shares into whole shares).
The Reverse Stock Split will not have any effect on number of authorized
shares of Common Stock or the stated par value of the Common Stock.

Tnxp is up 0.67%, She is rockin and rollin!

After Tonix Pharmaceuticals executed the 1-for-100 reverse stock split, the remaining authorized shares are still authorized in the same total amount (1 billion shares). However, they are now represented in a 1-to-100 ratio compared to the pre-split shares.
This means that those approximately 500 million pre-split remaining shares are now represented as 5 million post-split shares.
So, without a new future filing for more share, tnxp maximum number of outstanding shares can rise to approximately double the current post split outstanding shares.

My take on the 'authorized' shares vs share count:
=its an ATM to be used as they determine 'necessary'
=it allows for usage of shares as needed for 'compensation' purposes

Agree, 5.6 Million shares at the moment, that heavy sale to get to this number
is why I cut my target price to a 1/3rd of what I originally had (now around $80/sh vs $300)

And I suspect if they had their act together, they unleashed some more with the share price at $20.
They would have been foolish not to.

So no idea where the share count is at now, but wouldn't be surprised if my target price is now down to $70
and I don't know it.

The 'good news' is, given my cost basis, I will do quite well if it reaches $70. But yeah, have made my last ad
till I see the share price starting to roll up.

Note: TNXP and another one is the first time I have seen a r/split NOT reduce the shares authorized number as well.
That is a bit disconcerting.. And not used to seeing numbers like 400,000,000 million AUTHORIZED shares either.
Tho do understand, the companys interest is in their own survival, and ours is to hope to ride their efforts to some success.
So anyone believing a company is putting shareholder interests into consideration, needs to understand, its the BIG
shareholders they are careful not antagonize, not us retailers..

Shorts & everyone else,
Not looking for speculative answers/opinions,
Looking for fact supported response.
My Plan to buy more shares is on hold for now, why?
Last year Tonix filed notice to issue up to 1 billion more shares.
It had about 24 million shares outstanding in 2024.
Increased to 186.6 million shares in 2024.
In January 2025 the number of outstanding shares increased to 559 million shares.
Then came the 1 - to - 100 RS, (559/100=5.59 million shares outstanding)
The Q is why didn’t Tonix issue the authorized 1 billion shares?
Does this mean that Tonix has the ability to issue the remaining number of shares at Will, to raise cash!
Or was most of the remaining shares kept for top employees (executive level) options Plan!
If the former proven to be true, Tonix can flood the market with about 500 million shares!
Looking for factual input.

Again, less than yesterday’s lowest.
Short volume is the lowest I’ve seen in months!
5.8% of outstanding shares.

Volume decreasing since last Fridays massive number.. might
be the start of that phase between 'capitulation' and waiting for demand
to develop.
Got to flush out the last of the 'unsure', yet unfortunately, not
enough demand to stop the shorts from trying IF they still are
thinking about it.

Tonix is headed into the single digits and below. Then it will be time for another R/S. Good luck!

Good day to try to take another run at dropping it.

Inflation hot, market weak. Pretty good volume (approx 34,000 shs) right after
the open.. to drop it...

Guessing post the split, likely not your 'average' retailer??

Short volume is the lowest I’ve seen in months!

Yep, TNXPs chart 'trends' were wrecked with the r/split news, the
driving down of the share price.

Now the chart is going thru a hard reset as shareholders make their
choices on what they do next. And its going to take 'some' (undefined
cause shakeouts can be quick or long) time to put in a bottom and
the company to reaffirm why folks should want their shares going
forward.

But like the chart this morn. The sentiment indicator I use is showing
bigger 'buy' orders are dominating big sell side orders. IE, whats that saying,
when a stocks price crashes, its the smaller retailers that do the selling at the lows
while the smart money does the scooping up of the cheap offerings.

And again, this is with the biosector under pressure (IBB, XBI, LABU)

Too much damage to tnxp technical charts in recent weeks.
It’ll take some doing to undo.
Not sure what;s going on!
Discount it to get it cheaper perhaps, or what!
Open GTC order, hoping to fill.
I know this sounds a bit bearish!
Just following the technical charts year/day.

BIO SECTOR has been under pressure since the election.
No surprise why either cause it could use a good 'housecleaning'.

Unfortunately, while a few of the big boys like pfe deserve to be
nailed to the proverbial barn wall for what they have done?

Its going to cause some collateral damage to many others.

Check out IBB, XBI, LABU charts. Yep, until a company is
strong enough to stand on its own merits? Expect to see
them get jerked around.

That said, investing for me is similar to the fable about
the TORTISE and the HARE. Just have to hope ya
bought into a good turtle that has staying power no
matter what happens along the way to at least give you
some degree of a 'win'..

Looks like the shorts and nervous share holders combined this morn to hit a few..

right out of the open.

One other thing we can't be unaware of, this market was/has
been overvalued, due for a correction. Been looking for it to happen
since the election, but they had to wait long enough so they can blame
someone else for it happening. PS: seen this 'play' before (smile).

Good observation.
The only way I am able to explain it is some large lots trades occur between brokerages off the market, do not show on the daily activity.
The reported short volume 10% of Friday’s shorts are per FINRA, the agency that keeps track of short volume.
6.3 @ EOD Friday the 7th
0.7 @ EOD Monday.

interesting given only 1.47 Million shares exchanged hands today

Or is it a case of, the numbers you are reporting is reflective of last
FRIDAYS trading.

Cause the volume was 10.5 Mil last Friday and as mentioned
earlier, indicative of a change in sentiment occurring.

Good or bad, short volume fell to 0.7 millions today from 6.3 millions!

Frankenstin: was just coming on to mention
that the VOLUME last FRIDAY was significant.

And was wondering over the weekend IF that big
volume spike meant a 'turning' point took place last Friday.

Aka, you look at charts long enough, and at the peak highs
and lows, its not uncommon to see a 'surge' in volume indicating
a change in sentiment/the trend just took place.

at the peak highs, they call it a 'climax' topping where the 'excitement'
just ended. Sellers dumped shares to those the masses that are showing up
hoping the party is just getting started.

And on the opposite end? Sort of the same thing. Those late to the 'shorting'
cutting my losses gang give it one last go at shorting and dumping their shares,
while those sitting on gains from shorting, and those that see the shares as cheap,
decide its time to call it a day and buy cheap what the late to arrive are 'offering'..

Don't know, but looking at Fridays volume, looking at how far they have taken the
share price/market cap down? Was watching this morn to see how much 'fire power'
was going to be thrown at trying to drop it some more.. How many were going to
be willing to commit to trying to get some more??

So far?? Like that I am seeing bigger vol minutes on the chart corresponding to blips
higher in the share price. Not saying it can't be walked down a bit more, but the ones
thinking about it, have to be wondering, when are the buyers going to step up because its gotten
pretty cheap... PS: a sentiment indicator I use, that turned slight positive Friday, is a bit stronger
to the positive side today..

But too early to call anything, see where they are come Friday.. need a few days for a 'trend' to
have some viability...

Seth get your balls out and do buy back now! 🙏
If you know they won't delist you, do it!

Naw, need to say, its STILL in progress.

Far too early to say, and no sign in the chart that it had stopped..

sorry to say, here we go again 🥲

Looks like some 'tentative' toe dipping going on in the pre market..

Sort of the mindset of, I want 'some',
so will commit a few thousand $s and see what happens
next.

But I won't be surprised if the sell off isn't over
yet.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_4a8aa6ca8126eb8578547f451dc1bb68/tonixpharma/db/211/4425/pdf/Tonix+Investor+Presentation+02.07.25+vFinal.pdf
added
1st Quarter 2025 Initiate Phase 2 Investigator-Initiated study at UNC of TNX-102 SL for the treatment of Acute Stress Disorder (ASD) / Acute Stress Reaction (ASR)

Good, you got the point I intended.
Don’t go by what others say.
Go by what you know. Check out what you read, to confirm.
It’s your hard earned money.
Good luck to you too.
It was not intended to criticize you.
Many end up losing by all the online garbage.

dumb&dumber, I really don't like the way you talk to me! I really don't need you and your advise anyway. I have a lot of negative experience on stocks like Tonix, for example JAGX, is quiet simular, anyway all the best 😇

Stino2, you wrote “I only say what a lot of people think”.
This is not intended to be a criticism.
It’s what your message implies!
Your post #10,982 has more than one meaning!
One implies that you do not have the capacity to think for yourself & freedom of speech has a different meaning to you, as you choose to convey other people’s thoughts.
Think, before you post. Choose your words wisely.

Agree, the 1st Amendment protects the freedom to say just about
whatever you are 'thinking'.

We each chose to be invested in this, we either chose to hold
our positions or sell out when the R/s occurred. And we knew
the possibility existed.

Once we make that decision, we need
to stay rationale about whats going on and decide whether or not
to stick it out or now sell out. Getting hysterical and making wild
accusations because we are upset, does no one any good.

That was my point..

timberwolf7, I only say what a lot of people think, this is called freedom of speech 🤚

That dropped from $13 to $12 was in sequence with the NASDAQ dropping. But you know the shorts they're relentless. thief's of Wall Street

Where's bottom
Just like MRSN
🤔

Shorted shares is more than outstanding shares, 6,309,099

Yeah I get passed over many times. Sometimes two or three times in one day. This can be a tough game when the dealer can see your hand.

It will be lucky to be above $1 by the time that happens. This is just another MULN. Sell shares, sell more shares, then sell more shares.

It isn’t about the share price.
It’s valuation. TNXP is almost 1/2 the valuation it was pre RS.
If it had 1 million shares @ $66/share, would that be more psychologically challenging!

“Cause I can't see folks paying (call its a psychological hurdle) $20+/sh for something
awaiting fda approval..”

Figured they would try to hit it and at 1325, the effort 'commenced'..
22,000+ followed a minute later by 56000 and they were able to drop it around
50 cents ($12.5 range) And they are trying to push it lower as i type, with small
volumes, like they are probing enemy lines to see how much 'resistance' they
are facing (got to love this stuff) But they have gotten it down 85 cents now to $12.14..

Ran flat since 1030, volume anemic as both sides appear to be waiting to
see if the shorts are done and the shorts likely wondering if they dare to
push it lower again..

Would really be nice if management had a surprise for the market wouldn't
it.. (smile)

So the 10 DAY $/sh or more clock is running now??

Believe they have to hold a $/sh for 10 days to eliminate
the de-listing threat? Who knows, maybe thats why they went
big with the r/split (not to mention, room to sell shares via their ATM)..

But what would be nice to see after the 10 days are up? See them do a 2-1 split.
Take away some of the incentive to try and short it, and at the same time, make it
'cheap' for new buyers. Cause I do expect a forward split to make it 'more' affordable
and expand the float ..

Cause I can't see folks paying (call its a psychological hurdle) $20+/sh for something
awaiting fda approval...

Looks like TNXP is at a 'decision' point this morn..

Hovering around $13, indecisive.

Buyers 'ready' but hesitant to see if its going to get taken down
more

Shorts hesitant cause of how hard its already been hit, wondering at
what point its gets 'cheap' enough for the buyers to step up en masse
and screw the shorts over..

So who is going to blink first?? (smile)