djohn
4 days ago
Change of control.
Here's why we saw the huge awards of Performance Stock Units in the past week IMO
https://ir.avidbio.com/node/20356/html#a_010 Page 40
Overview of Executive Severance Plan, Employment Agreements and Potential Payments Upon Termination or Change in Control
Under the Plan, in the event of a termination of the Executive Participantโs employment by us without cause or a resignation by the Executive Participant for good reason, in each case within three (3) months prior to a change in control or within twelve (12) months following a change in control, the severance benefits for the Executive Participant shall consist of the following:
-immediate vesting in full of all of the Executive Participantโs outstanding equity awards; provided, however, if vesting is otherwise based on satisfaction of performance objectives, such objectives shall be deemed satisfied at 100% of target for each performance period.
westjtter
1 week ago
Nice to see that Mark Ziebell is on the filings for "Performance" stock....I mean he did such a bang up job overseeing the original debenture financing!
As for $34....well sadly, I think that ship has sailed!
But all is not lost as I believe that now with the financing offerings again opening up for small Biotechs, we will be at the receiving end of their drug candidate orders and these can be very profitable. I am thinking and hoping that we will begin to see them starting to make at least somewhat of a dent into their excess capacity over the next several quarters and beyond.
I do see $15 at least within 18 months(barring no other debacle or major setback) and perhaps into the low $20's in a couple of years....maybe? So I am hoping and believing that the worst is now behind us and our stock price should begin to reflect the coming growth, revenue and profit coming to Avid.
And I still believe Avid could be taken out any time within the next couple of years, as the board and management would certainly benefit greatly.....and yes we common shareholders would also, but certainly not as much as Nick and company!
djohn
2 weeks ago
Where do we fine these milestones?
The vesting of the PSUs granted to the reporting person on July 9, 2024 is subject to the Issuer achieving certain fiscal year revenue and adjusted pre-tax net income milestones, each weighted 50%, over three (3) fiscal year performance periods beginning with the Issuer's fiscal year ending April 30, 2025 and continuing through the fiscal year ending April 30, 2027 (each a "Performance Period"). Subject to the Issuer attaining the applicable fiscal year milestones, 1/3rd of the PSUs will vest on the last day of each fiscal year during the Performance Period, subject to the reporting person's continuous service to the Issuer on such vesting dates. The number of PSUs listed is based on a maximum 200% achievement of each milestone during each Performance Period (the "Maximum Performance Target"). If a milestone is achieved at a rate below the Maximum Performance Target, or is not achieved, the corresponding portion of the PSUs that do not vest are forfeited.
westjtter
2 weeks ago
Well I kind of have to agree....Nick and his crew showed their competency in how they missed doing a minor filing on the original convertible financing which led to a complete debacle and forced them to repay the funds immediately and negotiate another package with interest rates jumping from 1.25% due in 2026 with a convertible price in the mid $20's, to 7% with a convertible price reduced to $9.89. So the minimum extra financing cost is approx $10 mil per year for 2024, 2025 and part of 2026....so lets say $25 to $30 million anyway. Also, when and if these shares are converted, this will result in much more dilution than the previous convertible and will certainly result in a much lower share price at that time.
Now all of the above does not mean that Avid will never succeed, nor that we(Avid) will ever trade back into the teens but this will certainly be a drag on the share price going forward as compared to the original convertible debt deal.
Now I still believe that Avid will yet succeed and think we have a shot at $15+in about 18 months or so, which is very good......but nothing close to where we would have traded. The bottom line remains that for Avid to make money and hence for the share price to go higher, they MUST start making progress on filling their capacity....even under the original convertible....sure their financing costs would have been lower, but making solid profits still would only come if they manage/d to fill capacity....and like I have said before....I think actual capacity is higher than $400 mil, or rather they have ways of increasing this.
So yes we may still have very good times ahead.....now as for the question of who was the better CEO?....only time will tell....remember that it was SK who saved the manufacturing side of Peregrine which allowed the share price to run when new management was brought in and allowed shareholders to cash in. I also do not believe that SK would have missed reading the original convertible financing terms that required minor filings and would have seen this package through to completion.
Now would SK have embarked on the huge expansion that Nick pushed through????? Who knows? And if Nick manages to fill up capacity in a timely manner, we will all sing his praises no doubt. With rates starting to come off or predicting to start to come off, this will open the doors to new financing for a lot of smaller Biotechs leading to more drug candidates and more contracts for Avid....high profit contracts!
So we will see as we are now in the hands of Nick G.....if he fails to meaningfully start filling up capacity, he will be gone and the company will probably be sold.
djohn
2 weeks ago
Short interest was down a bit.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/cdmo/short-interest
Settlement Date Short Interest
06/28/2024 12,358,079
06/14/2024 15,076,940
05/31/2024 11,510,830
05/15/2024 11,862,647