AlwaysRed
10 months ago
I am glad that you guys are now watching and paying attention. I have been watching these for nearly 10 years. You guys are surprised that they are moving contracts forward, but they do this every other month like clockwork. I am sure they leave the actual physical deliveries for last.
We'll see how this plays out for the rest of the month. Maybe this is the time that they let the SLV price rise a little. Maybe the new range will be 25-30. I do not know. But one thing I am certain of, they are in control of the price and will not let it get out of control.
Wherever they want the price, that is where it will be.
They have not been using much in terms of contracts to smash the price lower:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.volume.html
The last real volume was on the 12th and it has been going down since. And the open interest line is falling.
Perhaps this down move won't be as large as usual. All we can do is watch and try to figure out what the channel will be. They may still smash it down. But as you say, there are not many contracts left to fill for May. 750x5000=3,750,000 ounces at 26.50 = 99,375,000 dollars worth of silver. So we are still at 100 million dollars worth of silver that needs to be delivered for May.
AlwaysRed
10 months ago
A few things here.
1) They have the entire month of May to fill the May contracts. I believe they are due when the contract was created in May of last year.
2) I believe that a lot of the contracts you see moving forward are fictitious. I don't think that they were ever created to really be delivered. I think it is simply a paper/digit game they play. Kicking the can down the road.
3) I believe that a lot of the contracts moving forward are contracts that were created, but the companies do not need delivery because the economy sucks. The demand for silver is low.
So I think the remaining contracts after all the moving, are actual PHYSICAL contracts. They leave those for LAST!
So let's look at the numbers where we stand now.
19,976 contracts left for May as of now. 124,766 moved to July now.
So 19,976 contracts x 5000 ounces per contract = 99,880,000 ounces of physical silver.
99,880,000 ounces X 27 dollars = 2,696,760,000. So 2.5 BILLION dollars worth of silver at 27 bucks.
Again if the contract was created at 23 1 year ago (And I'm not sure what the settle prices were from 1 year ago) that is a 4 dollar difference.
99,880,000 ounces x 4 dollar difference = $399,520,000
So if the contracts were settled at 23 and they have to buy at 27 to fill physical contracts they have a 400 million dollar loss.
So I believe that throughout the month of May the price of silver will go down until all those contracts clear out.
The actual physical contracts that need to be delivered are left for last.
AlwaysRed
11 months ago
Bix Weir is the closest, but he sold out. He sells metal. He knows the game. He just won't admit it. Because he has interests in profits.
You can't trust metal salesmen. If there is a gold ad, or the interviewer directs you to a metal salesman they are controlled one way or another. You have to understand the system and think critically. When profits are involved it becomes complicated. Even the good guys want their profits.
Bix Weir understands how they are using the SLV futures market to control the price of silver. That is the most important thing to learn. NONE of the other metal salesmen talk about that even. That is why I started posting on the SLV board. Because that is the tool they use to control the price of silver. SLV is simply digits. The more SLV there is dumped into the market the lower the price of silver goes. The market does not know the difference. SLV, silver, same thing. The market can't tell the difference. But they have unlimited amounts of SLV they can create. And that is how they control the market. SLV is the answer. And SLV future contracts. Contracts are legally binding.
You don't find many people talking about this because you can't sell metal if people understood how it was controlled. Why stack physical if the price of physical is controlled by digits? You can't teach that or you won't sell metal.
The metal salesman's goal is to sell metal. By any means necessary. And calling the dollar fiat is one of the ways they sell metal. People do NOT understand what the dollar is. But they believe that it is fiat because metal salesmen tell them so. The dollar is 100% backed by treasuries, oil and collateralization.
For those reasons you do not hear about it. One, they can't sell metal if the truth is know. And second, ignorance.
Omar8
11 months ago
AlwaysRed,
"No matter what, we are closer to the bottom than the top.
Say you buy 5000 shares x 14 dollars = 70,000
The price of ZSL goes to 22 dollars
5000 x 22 + 110,000
40K baby"
Not sure we will see 22 for ZSL, look at the price of ZSL now and calculate what it would be if silver hits about to $23 or $22 dollars....we be lucky to see ZSL get to $20 since silver has risen this high.
So closer to the peaks is important, if silver spikes up another $1 before turning the other way, then I don't think ZSL will get past $19 if silver goes to $23/ounce.