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34 minutes ago
Gold Forecast: Gold Cycle Update
By: Jim Curry | October 27, 2024
From my prior articles, Gold is back in mid-term topping range, and with that is at risk to a larger-degree decline phase in the coming months. Having said that, this decline has yet to be confirmed in force, though we are keeping a close watch on the current price action for signals of a key peak having formed.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
The 72-day cycle is the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, and is shown again on the chart below:
The next larger swing top has been expected to come from this 72-day cycle - which is well into extended range for its peak to form. Once this wave does top, then the downside 'risk' - and ideal price magnet - will be back to the 72-day moving average for Gold. However, based upon the position of our 310-day wave, the probabilities are good that the next peak for the 72-day wave will also top the larger cycle.
As originally mentioned in our Gold Wave Trader report back in June, it was the reversal above the 2408.10 figure which confirmed the current upward phase of this 72-day cycle to be in force, which has seen a gain of more than 350 points through that figure.
With the above, traders are always best to wait for the upside/downside reversal points to be taken out, before flipping their market direction. The reversal figures work particularly well with the 72 and 310-day cycles, due to their high-percentage rally and decline phases - normally some 14-25% for the Gold market.
The 310-Day Cycle
Above the 72-day wave for Gold, there is the larger 310-day cycle, which last bottomed back in October of last year - and is shown on the chart below:
For the bigger picture, this larger 310-day cycle is currently going over a very wide peak. In terms of price, key resistance is near the intersection of the upper 310-day and four-year cycle channels, which we are currently testing - though this level is rising daily, as the channels are also rising.
Once this 310-day wave does top, the probabilities will favor a sharp correction playing out into what looks to be the first few months of next year. In terms of price, the 310-day moving average would be an ideal magnet to the next downward phase of this cycle, with that moving average at or near the lower four-year cycle channel.
Going further, that lower four-year channel would be key long-term support for the Gold market, and would be favored to hold the coming correction phase of our 310-day cycle - if the larger uptrend is to remain intact with a bigger four-year wave, which is the current assumption.
The 4-Year Cycle
Above the 72-day and 310-day cycles, there is the larger four-year wave in Gold, which is shown on the chart below:
In terms of price, many months back we confirmed an upside target with our four- year cycle to the 2706-2935 region for Gold. With that, the most recent high has met the lower-end of this target range.
Having said that, with more time left on the current upward phase of this four-year cycle, the overall assumption is that a try at the upper-end of this range is going to be seen, though with an in-between (and countertrend) correction with our 310-day wave playing out into early next year.
With the above said and noted, a correction with our 310-day wave should find support near the aforementioned lower four-year cycle channel. If correct, what follows should be another rally of some 20-25% or more, playing out into later next year - then to be on the lookout for the next four-year top in Gold. That peak should eventually give way to a correction back to the 48-month moving average on is next downward phase.
In terms of price, we are watching our key downside 'reversal points' for each of the 72 and 310-day time cycles in Gold. When taken out to the downside, these will confirm the next correction phase of these waves to be back in force, with exact details of these reversal figures always posted in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader report.
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43 minutes ago
Central banks’ gold stash now at 12.1% – A level unseen since the 90s
By: Cryptopolitan Media | October 26, 2024
• Central banks now hold 12.1% of the world’s gold reserves, the highest since the 90s, with China, India, Turkey, and Poland leading purchases.
• Gold prices hit a record $2,772 per ounce this week, up 33% this year, and outperformed major stock markets since 2022.
• Political and economic shifts are pushing countries to rely less on the dollar, with rising demand for gold as a stable, “safe haven” asset.
Global central banks now hold 12.1% of all gold reserves, the highest level since the 1990s, and this percentage has surged, more than doubling over the past decade.
Leading the gold-buying frenzy are China, India, Turkey, and Poland. China alone hit a new high in 2024, reaching 2,264 tonnes, with gold now accounting for 5.4% of its foreign reserves.
Global demand and strategic diversification
Gold prices have hit records repeatedly this year, climbing 35 times to date and surging 33%. The precious metal reached a peak of $2,772 per troy ounce this week and has continued to rise over six of the last seven weeks.
The numbers speak for themselves: this year’s gold returns are up 33%, outpacing the broader stock market by 10% and even beating the Nasdaq 100. Since the latest bull market began in October 2022, gold returns hit 67%, higher than the S&P 500’s 63%, according to YCharts data.
The World Gold Council reports that banks purchased 483 tons of gold in the first half of the year. This massive buying spree is mainly driven by a push to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, which has dominated global trade and finance for decades.
“We believe that the tripling in central bank purchases since mid-2022 on fears about U.S. financial sanctions and sovereign debt is structural and will continue,” said Goldman Sachs.
The buying trend accelerated post-2022, right after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted America to impose severe economic sanctions. The U.S. dollar’s dominance has become a strategic vulnerability for some countries, especially those seeking economic autonomy.
De-dollarization is starting to take off
Economist Mohamed El-Erian recently wrote in the Financial Times that the rise in gold holdings captures a shift in behavior among China and “middle power” nations.
El-Erian added, “There is also interest in exploring possible alternatives to the dollar-based payments system.” Russia’s success in breaking off its economy away from the dollar amid sanctions is inspiring other countries to follow suit, reducing their dollar dependence and boosting their gold holdings.
Gold’s appeal as a “safe haven” asset grows stronger too, with rising geopolitical tensions. With conflicts stretching from Ukraine to the Middle East and China’s continued pressure on Taiwan, investors are turning to gold as a stable asset in volatile times.
U.S. debt is surging, making Treasuries, traditionally seen as a secure investment, look increasingly risky. Bank of America even said that, “Gold looks to be the last ‘safe haven’ asset standing,” pointing out that the metal’s stability is driving demand among traders and central banks alike.
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the largest gold exchange-traded fund, manages $78 billion in assets and has seen a $5 billion inflow in the last six months, based on data from ETF.com. Physical gold is also flying off shelves.
Costco has had consistent sellouts of gold bars online, with estimates from Wells Fargo showing up to $200 million in gold bars and silver coins sold to Costco members monthly.
Political climate and interest rates drive gold demand
Political developments in the U.S. also impact gold demand. The “Trump trade” is gaining traction as former President Trump’s election odds improve, pushing up expectations of a widening government deficit.
Economist Davix Oxley of Capital Economics points out that if Trump wins, concerns about fiscal discipline, the Fed’s independence, and rising inflation will likely drive even more investors towards gold.
Oxley said, “If you’re worried about fiscal profligacy, financial repression, and attacks on Fed independence, gold would be an attractive asset.”
Even if Trump doesn’t win, a growing deficit seems inevitable, which could favor gold in the long run. Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick explained that neither major party appears committed to fiscal discipline, with the Fed inclined to lower rates even if inflation runs slightly above target.
He added that, “Gold could be a viable alternative if rates rise and the economy stays sound. And if the economy isn’t sound, it could still be a good store of value.”
Interest rates directly influence gold’s appeal. Historically, falling rates boost gold prices, with the metal appreciating by as much as 10% within six months of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
While the Fed has raised rates since last month’s cut, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest point since July, gold prices continue to rise. This means that global investors are eyeing long-term rate trends, expecting further cuts from central banks.
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1 day ago
Gold Continues to Look Strong During Consolidation
By: Christopher Lewis | October 28, 2024
• The gold market has been somewhat sideways over the last week or so, as we are trying to do everything, we can to work off that massive froth that we have seen. The overall trend is still strong as well, and therefore it looks like more of the same.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market has gone back and forth during the last couple of sessions and Monday was no different. As we continue to hang around in this general vicinity, the market is likely to continue to see more or less a buy on the dip type of behavior. I have been paying close attention to the $2,680 level. It was previous resistance, and it should now offer support on some type of pullback.
I like the idea of looking for some type of value on a short-term pullback, but I also recognize that the market is going to remain very noisy and very difficult at times. There are plenty of reasons to think that perhaps traders will continue to pick up gold every time it drops mainly due to the fact that there are so many geopolitical issues at the moment that it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where people won’t find some type of need for protection.
Furthermore, we have central banks around the world cutting rates and that has a major influence on gold as well. Finally, we have major central banks around the world, in the Asian region at least, buying gold. So, you have a big buyer, and then beyond all of that, the technical analysis is so strong that anytime gold pulls back, you have to think that it is offering a little bit of value that you can take advantage of.
It’s your job as a trader not to go insane every time it pulls back and get in there with a huge position. Steady as she goes, we’ll win the race here. I believe that we are going to go looking to the $2,800 level. And then after that, it opens up the $3,000 level.
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trunkmonk
2 days ago
not bad, actually good info. Best way to describe what is coming is, we have only just begun. everything that helped gold from 78 to 80, is now multiples worse, or should I say better for gold. 2024 = 1978. Ill say anytime i think i need to, gold should be at 33k if all was equal, and it looks better and better for that to come true, especially because most countries other than the US are tired of almost everything getting weaponized and many things manipulated to look like something its not.
Inflection point coming, BRICS and digital tokens will be the choice at least 1/3 or world, and if the next gen fiat takes off, Banks will need to hold 40% of its worth in gold.
Year Annual % Change
1980 12.50%
1979 133.41%
1978 35.57%
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3 days ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 26, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 296.2k, up 9.8k.
There is no stopping the yellow metal, rallying this week 0.9 percent to $2,755/ounce, tagging $2,773 on Wednesday. This was the third up week in a row – and sixth in last seven.
Gold has rallied strongly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Five weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
If one were to nitpick, the daily RSI has made lower highs even as gold went on to add $100 in the past month.
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3 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 26, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27546 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27726 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27378 and overhead resistance forming above at 27633. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 27726, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27726 to 27221. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27726 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27726. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 27474 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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4 days ago
Gold Retains Strength but Remains Rangebound
By: Bruce Powers | October 25, 2024
• Gold’s bullish setup suggests potential for higher targets if resistance at 2,758 breaks.
Gold remained stuck within a relatively tight five-day price range from 2,709 to 2,758 on Friday as it continued to push up against recent highs. Notice that the price range for each of the five days, including today, is contained within the high to low range from Wednesday.
On that day gold crept to a new record high of 2,758 before encountering resistance that turned the price back down. The day ended in a bearish posture with a reversal day that closed below the prior day’s low. Nonetheless, gold has managed to strengthen somewhat the past two days off that low close but remains inside the range and therefore may yet again be impacted by the bearish implications of that day.
Resistance Holds Around 250% Extension
Resistance has been seen around the completion of a 250% extended retracement measuring the March 2022 downswing. Also, the top line of a rising trend channel marks a similar price area. But given the signs of continued strength, it seems like gold may yet want to go higher before a notable pullback. Regardless, a signal is needed before anything is indicated. A bullish signal occurs on a decisive rally above the 2,758-record high.
Breakout Above 2,758 Targets 2,797
If price continues to strengthen from there, gold is likely heading towards a price range from 2,797 to 2,815. The range consists of a 200% extended retracement of the decline that began from the 2011 peak. Next is 2,808, the 261.8% extended retracement from the decline off the March 2022 peak. Finally, the price range ends with an estimated target of 2,815 from the bull flag pattern that triggered last week.
Support Next at 2,686
On the downside, a breakdown below 2,758 may lead to a test of support at lower prices. The last breakout level was at the prior trend high of 2,686 and it may now see support. Subsequently, the critical 20-Day MA for the short-term trend is at 2,674. Notice that the 20-Day line was tested on the initial flag breakout day before the rise above the top flag boundary line. A break below the 20-Day line may see the 50-Day MA at 2,599 eventually being tested as support.
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4 days ago
Gold Weekly Price Outlook – Gold Continues to See Upward Pressure but Shows Exhaustion
By: Christopher Lewis | October 25, 2024
• Gold continues to see a lot of noisy behavior at this point in time, as we have shot higher, only to give up the gains. All things being equal, this is a situation that has gotten a bit ahead of itself and has to work off some of the “froth in the markets.”
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold market initially rallied during the week showing signs of strength, but really at this point in time it looks as if it is going to give back some of the gains and I think this is a good thing. Quite frankly, this is a market that is overstretched and although I remain very bullish on gold from a fundamental standpoint, the momentum is going to continue to be an issue here because markets can only go in one direction for so long.
That being said, there are a lot of geopolitical issues out there that will drive gold higher. But furthermore, we also have the interest rate situation going on around the world as central banks are cutting rates. That tends to drive gold higher as well.
Furthermore, we also have central banks in places like Indonesia, India, China, and Russia, all buying gold. So that puts a little bit of a boost into it. Short-term pull banks at this point in time, I think continue to offer buying opportunities. Think also the market is likely to continue to see plenty of buyers at the $2,600 level, assuming we even dropped that far.
If we break above the top of the candlestick for the week, that would obviously be very bullish. And it is probably worth noting that previously we have formed a bullish flag on the daily chart and the measured move is anticipated to be to the $2,800 level. I believe the gold will go looking to the $3,000 level eventually, but it won’t get there in a straight line. So, I look at and quite frankly welcome any pullback as an opportunity.
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5 days ago
Gold Faces Pullback After Reversal, Eyes Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | October 24, 2024
• Gold’s short-term pullback follows a bearish reversal from a record high. Traders now watch key support levels to assess if the bullish trend will continue or a longer rest comes first.
Gold consolidated on Thursday to trade inside day. That follows a bearish reversal day yesterday that has the potential to lead to a deeper decline. The reversal day followed a new record high of 2,758 that was hit earlier in the day. Subsequently, sellers took control and drove the price down below the prior day’s low of 2,719, which is where gold closed the session. This is short-term bearish price action that typically leads to a pullback of some degree. The degree will help provide clues as to the underlying strength or weakness in gold.
Top Channel Line Stops Ascent
Notice that resistance was seen around the combination of a 250% extended retracement level at 2,754 and the top rising parallel trend channel line. However, given the potential for higher targets a bullish continuation above this week’s high is anticipated following a period of consolidation or a pullback. Gold recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern, after a final test of the 20-Day MA as support, on October 15.
A measuring objective from the flag formation points to an eventual target of 2,815. But it is not only the flag identifying that price area. There are two other Fibonacci measurements confirming the price area. One points to 2,797 and the other to 2,808. Together, the above price levels generate a potential upside target zone from 2,797 to 2,815.
Watching for Inside Day Breakout
A breakout of the inside day, either up or down, will point to the next direction other than a false signal. Today’s high or resistance was at 2,743 and the low was 2,714. More importantly, the high of 2,758 and low at 2,709 from Wednesday provide more significant price levels to gauge strength or weakness. Key support levels are the recent trend breakout area of 2,686 and the 20-Day MA at 2,670. Either could present strong support.
Above 20-Day MA Retains Bullish Outlook
As long as the price of gold stays above the 20-Day MA during a pullback, the outlook for gold remains bullish. If gold falls below the 20-Day line and stays there are continues to fall, the 50-Day MA at 2,594 becomes a target. Notice that that 50-Day line has been rising and is on track to converge with support at the bottom of the flag pattern, at 2,602.
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5 days ago
Gold Continues to Power Ahead on Thursday
By: Christopher Lewis | October 24, 2024
• The gold market continues to power ahead on Thursday, as the market continues to pay close attention to the same overall factors, such as geopolitical strain, interest rates, and of course the central banks buying it.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market rallied quite a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we continue to see gold really take off to the upside. Quite frankly, the recent pullback that we had seen over the last 24 hours was probably needed and quite frankly, I would have liked to have seen the market pullback even further.
However, it is such a bullish market right now that it’s difficult to imagine that any pullback would be something you could short, nor does it seem like we are going to see a scenario where anything, but value hunting would be the result of a pullback. Really, I don’t think that there’s any reason to sell in this market, but what I do think is that eventually we go looking to the $2,800 level, which is the measured move on the bullish flag. This is an obvious one, so a lot of people will be watching this closely.
After that, I would fully anticipate that gold goes looking to the $3,000 level, mainly due to a whole host of fundamental reasons such as geopolitics, central banks around the world cutting interest rates, and then of course the fact that the central banks around the world are buying gold. That puts a bit of a bid in the market at all times. So, with this, you’re looking for cheap gold that you can take advantage of on pullbacks. And I do think you probably ride this all the way up to $3,000 before it’s set and done, perhaps even higher than that.
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6 days ago
Gold Hits Resistance, Eyes Key Support Amid Bearish Reversal
By: Bruce Powers | October 23, 2024
• Gold's rally stalled at 2,758, triggering a bearish reversal. Key support at 2,686 and 20-Day MA at 2,667 will determine whether the retracement deepens.
Gold rallied through its next higher target of 2,754 on Wednesday before hitting resistance at 2,758 and turning down. It is set to complete a bearish reversal day as the subsequent decline took gold below yesterday’s low of 2,719. And it is on track to close below that price level thereby further confirming the short-term bearish signal.
This puts gold in a retracement mode and will likely lead to a deeper retracement unless there is a quick bullish recovery. At the time of this writing gold continues to trade near the lows of the day and is set to close in the lower third of the day’s trading range.
2,753 Target Leads to Selling
Although the 2,753-upside target was reached, and it seemed to have been recognized by the market, there are higher targets for gold that continue to have a chance of eventually being approached once a retracement is complete. There are a couple key potential support levels to be aware of on the way down. The first is the most recent breakout level at 2,686.
Following a bullish breakout a pullback will eventually occur and many times the prior resistance breakout level is subsequently tested as support. Since gold has triggered a bearish daily reversal only four days after the bull breakout, there is a good chance it will be revisited. Slightly below the prior breakout level is the 20-Day MA at 2,667.
Key Potential Support at 20-Day MA – 2,667
The 20-Day MA is a key near-term trend indicator for gold given how it has been recognized as support since the 20-Day line was recaptured on August 8. There were two subsequent periods of time where the 20-Day line was tested as support on multiple days, first in early-September and then again in the first half of October. Each time the 20-Day MA was held as support a bullish continuation followed. So, this means that the 20-Day MA is the maximum anticipated retracement currently. Moreover, a break below it would be bearish and could lead to a continuation of the decline.
250% Extension Leads to Bearish Reversal
As discussed previously, the 2,754 target is the 250% extended retracement of the decline that began from the March 2022 high of 2,070. It is an interim target prior to a higher target zone from 2,797 to 2,815. The top target price is the initial target from the recent breakout of a bull flag, while the range begins with a 200% extended retracement target measuring the decline from the 2011 top.
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6 days ago
Gold & the Government's Nightmare
By: Marty Armstrong | October 23, 2024
I have constantly warned that gold DOES NOT rise with inflation—anyone who claims that has no business being an analyst. Gold declined for 19 years after 1980 while the national debt exploded with inflation. Gold is a measure of CONFIDENCE and rises especially as a neutral asset during times of war.
I previously warned that we have "three levels of projected targets for resistance - 2660-2670, 2755, and 3174. If we get a real panic breakout to the upside exceeding $3,000, be careful, for this may produce a major high. This would suggest that gold may no longer be in the free market. So, pay close attention to how this high unfolds." Our most extreme target is a PANIC if they start World War III before the election on the Gold Benchmark, which is October 28th; projected resistance stands at 3291.50, 3429.89, and 3868.90. Once gold exceeded 2364 in 2024, that opened the door for a test of 3000...
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6 days ago
Gold Busters. Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | October 23, 2024
If there’s something strange. In your neighborhood. Who you gonna call? Gold Busters!
If there’s something weird and it don’t look good ; who you gonna call? Gold Busters. I ain’t ‘fraid of no gold!
As gold busted through another record high, the surge in gold is causing some unease among some in the invest community.
Gold has become a what I called the ‘hedge o Matic” for everything. Gold has been a hedge as the world is facing from an uncertain US Presidential election to dollar debasing, the rise of the ‘BRICS” and all out-World War fears. That is not to mention a run on inflation that the world has not seen in decades.
Is this an ominous sign of the future or is it gold just regaining its attraction of a real financial asset.
Mohamed A. El-Erian the famed Former CEO of PIMCO may have to call a gold buster as he wrote “Something strange has happened to the price of gold over the past year.”
He said “In setting one record level after the other, it seems to have decoupled from its traditional historical influencers, such as interest rates, inflation and the dollar. Moreover, the consistency of its rise stands in contrast to fluctuations in pivotal geopolitical situations.
Gold’s “all-weather” characteristic signals something that goes beyond economics, politics and higher-frequency geopolitical developments. It captures an increasingly persistent behavioral trend among China and “middle power” countries, as well as others. And it is a trend that the west should be paying greater attention to.
His conclusion was one that I reached was that “seems not just related to the desire of many to gradually diversify their reserve holdings away from significant dollar dominance despite America’s “economic exceptionalism”. There is also interest in exploring possible alternatives to the dollar-based payments system that has been at the core of international architecture for some 80 years. Ask why this is happening and you will normally get an answer that mentions a general loss in confidence in America’s management of the global order and two specific developments.
There is no doubt that this record run in gold in part has been about the lack of leadership from Biden Harris. Starting with the botched Afghanistan pullout without alerting our allies the crazy mixed energy policies along with the incredible amount of government spending has caused a lack of confidence in the ability of the United States to lead the world.
Silver tried to keep pace with gold on the breakout it’s pulling back a bit this morning I think the entire market wants to see what is going to develop we do get the Federal Reserve minutes today and that could have some impact on the value of the dollar that continues to go up along with gold the dual run of the US dollar to the upside along with gold is an explosive combination that means it gold can continue on its quest towards $3000 an ounce also it means that silver should at some point find its way to the old al yeah record high of near $50. It may go as high as $70 long term.
Investing.com wrote that Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange steadied at $10,141.0 a ton, while one-month copper futures fell 0.5% to $4.6350 a pound. Both contracts wiped out a bulk of their gains through May despite hitting record highs, as a speculative frenzy died down and gave way to severe profit-taking.
Sentiment towards copper was also dented by weaker-than-expected PMI data from top copper importer China. China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in May, while non-manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace.
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7 days ago
Gold Strength Persists as Bull Flag Breakout Targets 2,815
By: Bruce Powers | October 22, 2024
• Gold surges to record highs, trading strong and approaching the next target around 2,754. A continuation above there shows it heading towards a bull flag target at 2,815.
Gold reached another new record high on Tuesday at 2,748. It continues to trade strong, near the highs of the day, at the time of this writing and should close strong, in the top third of the day’s trading range. Further, Monday’s high and prior record high was 2,741. Gold is trading above it at this time and if it can close above there today, that will be another sign of strength.
Continued Strength Increases Chance Flag Target Reached
A primary target for gold at 2,815 is derived from the bull flag pattern, which gold broke out of last week. Subsequently, gold is progressing as it might following such a breakout. Nonetheless, there is no assurance the 2,815 target will be hit, or the path gold might take getting there. Today, gold is flirting with potential resistance around the top line of an ascending parallel channel. It hasn’t broken through it clearly yet, which means it may yet act as a resistance area. Moreover, a decisive rally above today’s high triggers a potential upside breakout of the channel.
Next up is 2,754
A target from an extended retracement of the decline following the March 2022 peak is up next at 2,754. That target is the 250% extended retracement of the 2022 decline. It may mean something, and it may not. How the price of gold reacts around that price area should provide clues. The next higher target from that same retracement is the 261.8% extension at 2,808.
That is right in the zone for the flag target. When combined with a 200% extended target of the September 2011 decline at 2,797, a potentially significant resistance zone is indicated from 2,797 to 2,815. Since the 2,797 target is from a very long-term measurement, it may take on greater significance and should be watched closely if approached.
Near-term Support at Day’s Low of 2,719
If resistance is subsequently seen from today’s high, the low for today is potential near-term support at 2,719. If it fails to hold there is the potential to eventually test support around the 20-Day MA at 2,664, which is near the lower channel line. Nevertheless, the characteristics of the pullback should set gold up for the next advance. Strength seen recently is the bullish follow-through from a multi-year base breakout that began in February.
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1 week ago
Gold Continues to Power Higher in Stretched Conditions
By: Christopher Lewis | October 22, 2024
• The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy momentum to the upside, and as a result, the market continues to see a lot of “buy on the dips” behavior.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market rallied quite a bit during the early hours on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of reasons for gold to continue to go to the upside. After all, a lot of people are looking at this through the prism of geopolitical risks, interest rates, of course, dropping. And at this point, we also just see so much momentum that I think people are willing to jump in and chase.
Beyond all of that, you also have central banks around the world buying gold, so it all ties together for a nice move. When you look at the past, you can see that we formed a bullish flag, and the measured move is to $2,800, so I think that’s where we’ll be going. That doesn’t mean that we get there overnight, and it is worth noting that we formed a shooting star during the day on Monday, so I do think a pullback’s coming. Whether or not this pullback is substantial remains to be seen, but I would be looking for a dip in order to get involved.
You don’t want to chase the gold market all the way to the top and then have to sit on a position for a couple of weeks in order to break even or finally start to make money. Sizing your position, of course, will be crucial as the volatility continues to pick up. But right now, I just think we’re at a situation where we got a little bit ahead of ourselves and we’ll have to see whether or not we can continue to break out. But my target, at least at this point in time, is $2,800. But I actually think we’re going to $3,000 before it’s all said and done.
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1 week ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 19, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 286.4k, up 8.3k.
After three tentative weekly candles – shooting star, spinning top and dragonfly doji – gold yet again shone this week, up a solid two percent to $2,730/ounce, which set a fresh high.
The yellow metal has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, it enjoyed one after another breakout.
Four weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
This week’s breakout followed a defense of $2,610s last week.
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1 week ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 19, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27300 and is trading up about 31% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27378 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26947.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 14th at 27378, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27378 to 26544. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27378 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27378. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 26596 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Hits Record High of $2,721, Eyes on Higher Targets
By: Bruce Powers | October 18, 2024
• Surging to $2,721, gold shows strong bullish momentum with key targets at $2,754 and $2,815, supported by a breakout from the bull flag pattern.
Gold prices continued to strengthen on Friday, reaching a new record high of 2,721. Buyers remain in charge at the time of this writing as the precious metal continues to trade near the highs for the day. Today’s bullish price action shows upward momentum improving relative to the prior three days since the initial breakout of a bull flag trend continuation pattern. Notice the wider trading range today relative to the prior three days. A strong daily and weekly close today will put gold in a solid technical position to challenge higher potential targets.
First Target is 2,724
The first target zone is the initial target for a rising ABCD pattern at 2,724, as shown on the chart in purple. It would be an obvious location to begin to see resistance that might lead to a pullback. Subsequently, if it is exceeded, 2,754 is next up on the agenda. Reaching that price level completes a 250% extended retracement of the bearish correction that began from the March 2022 peak. Also, keep an eye on the top parallel channel rising trendline as it may provide additional clues when the two price levels are approached.
Bull Flag Points to 2,815
Nonetheless, a higher potential target at 2,815 is derived from calculating the measuring objective for the bull flag. The breakout for the flag triggered following a successful test of support at the 20-Day MA earlier in session. That was the launch pad. There is also a slightly earlier target a little lower than the flag target at 2,797. That price level will compete a 200% retracement of the bearish correction that began from the 2011 peak at 1,921.
First Support to Watch at 2,686 Breakout Level
On the downside, a decline below today’s low of 2,692 indicates short-term weakness and could lead to a deeper pullback. The breakout to new highs occurred above 2,686 and it is an obvious potential target to be tested as support. Nonetheless, if it happens before new highs for gold a deeper pullback seems likely given that there has only been one bullish follow-through day, which was today. Key is going to be the 20-Day MA. Since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed on August 8, it has done a good job of identifying an area of trend support. Therefore, it should continue to do so and if it doesn’t, that is a warning sign.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Breaks Record High, Bullish Momentum Continues
By: Bruce Powers | October 17, 2024
• After hitting a new record high, gold looks poised for further gains, with resistance levels between 2,724 and 2,754, supported by continued bullish momentum and key technical signals.
Gold broke out to a new record high of 2,697 on Thursday and it continues to show strength. It is on track to end the day at its highest daily closing price ever, thereby confirming the bullish breakout. The advance follows yesterday’s close, which was the highest historically and an indication of strength. Next, a daily close above the prior record high of 2,686 will provide confirmation of the breakout and trend continuation signal. A daily close below the prior high or below the halfway point of the day’s trading range will indicate potential short-term weakness.
Advance Follows Daily and Weekly Pattern Breakouts
The extension in the uptrend to a new high in gold follows a breakout of a daily flag pattern and a weekly bullish hammer candlestick pattern earlier this week. Also, the 20-Day MA was successfully tested prior to the breakout follow-through day on October 15. Notice that the February 29 symmetrical triangle breakout also followed a test of the 20-Day line. It was tested as support for six days prior to the breakout day and it remained support. In other words, a test of support around the 20-Day line is an indication of strength that gets expressed with an upside breakout. Subsequently, gold accelerated gains.
Next Resistance Zone from 2,724 to 2,754
Following a daily close above the prior high of 2,697 to confirm the bull breakout of the trend, gold will be heading towards a potential resistance zone defined by Fibonacci confluence from 2,724 to 2,754. The top of the range is derived from a measurement over the longest time frame. Therefore, it can be considered potentially more significant. It is an extended retracement that is 2.5x the downswing that began in March 2022. The beginning of the confluence price range is the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the February swing low (A).
Bull Flag Points to 2,815
Nonetheless, the recent bullish flag pattern points to a potential target around 28.15. This assumes that the pole of the flag begins at the breakout level of 2,532 that triggered on September 12. Whether it is reached or not it does indicate further upside for gold in the relatively near term.
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2 weeks ago
If you’re so happy, why are you buying so much gold?
By: The Financial Times | October 17, 2024
• The rally that won’t quit
Good morning. Third-quarter earnings season is off to a good start. It’s mostly been banks so far. Market volatility has made the trading desks happy; on the retail side, interest margins are holding up better than expected; and the banking sector is up 6 per cent in the last week. In even happier news, the FT Alphaville Pub Quiz is returning to New York on November 12. Unhedged will be hosting a round — we hope to see you there for some wonky questions and a few drinks! Instructions for how to sign up are here. Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and aiden.reiter@ft.com.
Gold
A lot has been written about the gap between consumer sentiment, which remains bad, and employment and wages, which are strong. Something similar is happening in markets: sentiment is increasingly bullish, but gold continues to rally like crazy. This is not a totally anomalous situation, but historically gold has often peaked when investors are feeling insecure. That is not the case today. Here is a chart of the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey’s bull-bear spread (I use the 24-week average as it is a very noisy series) plotted against the gold price. The dotted lines mark spots where gold peaked just as sentiment troughed.
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It is not just the AAII survey that shows sentiment is strong. Bank of America’s global fund manager survey this month showed the biggest leap in sentiment since June of 2020, along with bond and cash allocations coming down. So why is the price of the classic maybe-something-awful-happens asset, gold, hitting epic highs?
Unhedged has written several times before about the oddness of this gold rally. To recap the main points:
• The gold price does not seem to be responding in a straightforward way to inflation or money printing. Gold rose when the first emergency fiscal and monetary actions increased the money supply in 2020. But then it went sideways as the money supply expanded further and inflation took hold. It was only after the Federal Reserve started absorbing liquidity, rates rose and inflation was slowing that gold really started to jump. Here is the gold price, M2 money, and the CPI price index rebased to 1 as of January 2020:
• The normal relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken. The real interest rate is the opportunity cost of owning a yieldless metal, so when real rates rise, gold tends to fall. Not this time:
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• Similarly, gold and the dollar strengthened in tandem for much of this year. Usually, because gold is priced in dollars and inversely related to US interest rates, they move in opposite directions. The relationship has normalised somewhat recently.
• Gold mining stocks are not participating in the rally. The chart below, from James Luke of Schroders, shows the ratio of the gold price to the price of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (the green line). Miners are very cheap compared to the metal. The blue line is the current gold mining industry “all-in sustaining cost margin” for producing an ounce of gold. The margin is very high indeed. A strange combination, and one that suggests that investors in gold miners — to the degree there are any of those left — do not believe $2,700 gold is going to last.
As a way to make sense of these oddities, one might ask, who is buying all the gold? In particular, who has been buying it since it passed $2,100, the level at which many experts thought demand from price-sensitive buyers would dry up?
The first candidate is central banks. They did significantly increase the portion of their foreign exchange reserves held in gold in 2022 and 2023. But, according to the World Gold Council’s demand report, central bank demand is roughly flat in the first half of 2024.
Investment demand — ingots, coins, ETFs — also seems to be flattish relative to last year. While the holding of gold ETFs are rising a bit, they are still lower than they were last year at this time. Here’s a chart from Josh Wolfson at RBC:
Jewellery demand does not seem to be the culprit, either. Chinese and Indian jewellery demand, an important part of the global picture, has fallen dramatically as prices have risen and the Chinese economy has slowed, according to the WGC.
Who is driving the price then? I have heard various theories: sovereign wealth funds buying on the sly and hedge funds chasing the price are the most popular. Certainly, it is the case that momentum-driven quant funds will pursue any price with a strong upward trend.
Whoever the marginal buyer is, the move from $2,000 to $2,700, if it should be sustained in any meaningful way in the months to come, does suggest that gold may be becoming a slightly different kind of asset.
Of course it could be that gold is responding to the fact that there are wars in Europe and the Middle East, as well as acute electoral uncertainty in the US. Indeed, geopolitical worry is almost surely part of the story. But if it were the whole story, shouldn’t stocks be falling, and bond volatility be rising?
In a world awash in liquidity, gold may have become another asset investors buy when they decide they have too much cash on their balance sheets. If something like this is true, it would suggest that gold will act more like a risk asset, and less like a hedge, in the future.
A quite different explanation is that gold, rather than responding to short- or medium-term moves in rates, inflation and the money supply, is making an adjustment to the expectation that we are in a new, more fiscally profligate regime where the neutral rate of interest is higher, central banks are under more pressure, and inflationary incidents are more common. In such a world, gold might deserve a somewhat larger place in the optimal portfolio.
As something of a gold sceptic, I am struggling to accept any of these hypotheses. But I would be very keen to hear readers’ views.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Continues to Look to Higher Levels on Thursday
By: Christopher Lewis | October 17, 2024
• In the early hours of Thursday, the gold market continued to look very strong, as the market continues to look at the possibility of reaching the $2800 level, and then the $3000 level after that. While I don’t think it happens overnight, gold should reach to the $3000 level over the next few months.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market has rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in a market that has stretched quite drastically to the upside over the last several months. And as we had previously pulled back to the 2,600 level, it looks as if that is going to be your floor going forward. The 50-day EMA is also rising towards the 2,600 level. So, all things being equal, I think that is an area that we need to pay close attention to.
The market breaking the way we have recently suggests to me that it is only a matter of time before we go even further to the upside and looking at the previous action, which now looks a lot like a bullish flag, I think the suggested measured move is the $2,800 level. That being said, I also believe that we go further than that. Quite often you do, and my target at the moment is $3,000.
That being said, it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to be an easy path there, and it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to be quick, but I do think that’s where we are going. In fact, I don’t really have a situation where I’m shorting gold, probably not until we break down below the 2,475 level, which of course we are nowhere near, and even then, I’d have to look at the fundamental situation. Speaking of fundamentals, we have geopolitics and interest rates going down, both working in favor of gold.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Market Continues to Look For a Break Higher
By: Christopher Lewis | October 16, 2024
• The gold market continues to see a lot of upward pressure, as the market is trying to break to a fresh, new, high. At this point, the market is one that you have to be looking at dips as value, and an opportunity to get long again.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market rallied again during the early hours on Wednesday as we continue to see gold really take the market by the reins. All things being equal, we are on the precipice of a breakout currently, and I do think that the market is going to continue to look at buyers jumping into the market on short-term dips as it offers a little bit of value.
The $2,600 level underneath is a major support level with the 50-day EMA reaching that area rather soon from what I can see. In general, this is a market that continues to be very noisy but ultimately, I do think that based on the measured move, we could get to the $2,800 level based on a bullish flag. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be driven by geopolitical concerns as well as the idea of interest rates dropping. With central banks around the world cutting rates the way they will be, it’s going to obviously have a major influence on gold and where it goes.
With this being the case, I think you have to understand this is a scenario where between geopolitics and interest rates, I do think it’s probably only a matter of time before gold probably goes reaching all the way to the $2,800 level and then eventually the $3,000 level. I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in trying to get short of this market. It’s certainly way too strong to think about that.
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2 weeks ago
Gold Continues to See Positivity Despite Pullback
By: Christopher Lewis | October 15, 2024
• The gold market is trying to digest the gains at the moment, as it looks like we still have plenty of buyers out there willing to get into the fray and buy gold whenever it pulls back. At this point, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this market reach the $3,000 level.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market has gone back and forth during the course of the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to hang around the $2,650 level. This is a market that recently has been consolidating enough to form a bit of a bullish flag, and I think at this point, short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities, just waiting to come into the picture as traders will look for value.
The $2,600 level underneath, of course, is a major round figure that a lot of people will be looking at, as it is an area that’s already proved itself as somewhat important. And now we have the 50-day EMA racing toward it. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to move on the same issues, including the U.S. dollar, the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy, as well as other central banks, and then of course the geopolitics of the world, which are horrible at the moment.
So, all of this leads to people looking to save their wealth a bit by purchasing gold. Gold, of course, is not an all in type of trade, but it is a trade that a lot of people will have as part of their portfolio. On dips, I suspect that you will have plenty of buyers. And I do think that gold will eventually go looking to the $3,000 level. And at this point, quite frankly, all we would need is some type of geopolitical headache to pop up to make gold do that. Even if we were to break down below the $2,600 level, I have no interest whatsoever in shorting gold. It is far too strong, and I think that would only bring in more value hunting.
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2 weeks ago
Wall Street remains cautious on gold, Main Street optimism wanes further for next week
By: Ernest Hoffman | October 11, 2024
Gold faced a number of headwinds this week, and received no supportive news or data, but the yellow metal held its own and showed its resilience with a steady climb to the finish.
Spot gold kicked off the week trading close to $2,652 per ounce before falling to support at $2,640 overnight Sunday. By 7:30 a.m. Eastern on Monday morning, spot gold was trading just below $2,660 per ounce, but that proved to be the high point for the next few days, as the yellow metal returned to retest the $2,640 support level multiple times on Monday, before finally breaking through just after 10:00 p.m.
Tuesday morning saw spot gold climb from a low of $2,632 per $2,650, but what followed was the week's most dramatic decline, with prices falling from $2,652 per ounce at 8:00 a.m. Eastern all the way to $2,609 two hours later.
After setting a fresh weekly low just above $2,609 shortly before 1:00 p.m., gold settled into a relatively narrow trading range between $2,606 and $2,620 as markets awaited the week's first significant release, the FOMC minutes from the last meeting at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday. While the minutes showed some fed voters had cold feet about the 50 basis point cut, gold took their reticence in stride, and began a slow but steady grind higher.
Thursday morning brought news that consumer inflation ran a little hotter than expected in September, which added volatility to markets in the near term, but propelled gold marginally higher overall. By midnight Thursday evening, gold's steady climb saw it top out just above $2,645 per ounce before it pulled back to wait for the week’s final key data release, September's PPI inflation report.
Once the BLS release showed that producer prices remained in line with expectations last month, gold finally reclaimed the territory it had held on Sunday evening, and by 12:30 p.m. Eastern the yellow metal managed to set a fresh weekly high of $2,661.47 per ounce, after which it traded within $5 of that level for the duration of the session.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed only a minority of industry experts expect price gains next week, while the majority of retail investors remained optimistic but ticked lower for the third week in a row.
“Gold held the top of the range of the pullback I expected, finding support near $2600,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “It bounced to $2650 after US PPI, but I think that is it and we could see a retest on the $2600 and maybe the $2580 area.”
“Middle East tensions are supportive but higher interest rates and firm dollar may weigh on the yellow metal,” he added.
“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “Another week gone, meaning the window has closed ever so slightly for those around the world looking to create chaos, with the end goal being economic and political change. Given this, investment traders will likely continue to move into gold as a safe-haven market.”
“I am neutral on Gold for the coming week,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “After a big run, Gold has settled into a $2600-$2700 trading range. With full and partial holidays on Monday, no central bank meetings and no currency moving data on the schedule, the coming week looks like it could be quiet for Gold.”
“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “Over the past few weeks, bulls have had every excuse to take profits following another extension in the move, including a strong breakout in the US Dollar and more recently, strong NFP and CPI reports. It’s only been able to provide mild pullbacks though and that says to me that gold bulls aren’t finished yet. I now have it testing the resistance side of a bull flag and that keeps the door open for fresh ATHs.”
Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, said that he’s neutral on gold for the coming week, but it’s shown impressive resilience in shaking off broad U.S. dollar strength and rising Treasury yields...
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