Historical Study Predicts Bitcoin To Hit $164,000—Here’s When
August 15 2024 - 5:00AM
NEWSBTC
Bitcoin has continued to see a blend of bulls and bears without any
major high achieved since its renewed peak above $73,000 in March.
So far, the asset has ranged below $60,000 in the past week, as it
appears to face resistance whenever it reaches that price mark.
However, several analysts and experts share their optimistic
outlook on top crypto despite this. Sminston With, a prominent
Bitcoin researcher, recently offered an interesting forecast on BTC
based on a detailed examination of the asset’s price trajectory
over past bull cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Set To Surge
With $2.5 Billion Stablecoin Inflows: Research Firm Decoding
Bitcoin’s ‘Decaying Peaks’ Shared in a post on Elon Musk’s social
media platform, X, With’s analysis draws from the peak periods of
Bitcoin in 2011, 2013, and 2017 to project future possibilities for
this leading cryptocurrency. The concept used in the analysis,
“decaying peaks,” refers to the progressively lower returns seen in
successive Bitcoin bull runs as the market matures and gains wider
acceptance. This phenomenon is captured through an analysis known
as the “exponential decay fit,” which Is employed to evaluate the
peaks of Bitcoin’s past bull cycles by aligning the historical data
points of 2011, 2013, and 2017, With aimed to delineate a pattern
that could suggest future price movements. I wanted to highlight a
study looking at the decaying peaks of the #BTC price residuals
from each cycle (this is what is used to build the Decay Channel
and also the Oscillator). Here I simply did an exponential decay
fit of the max residuals (price / .05 quantile power law…
pic.twitter.com/dKv60ajL1j — Sminston With (@sminston_with) August
12, 2024 In his study, the analyst applied this model to the 2021
cycle peak, yielding a forecast close to market behavior. The model
predicted a peak of $65,732.72, closely shadowing the actual peak
of $64,682.47, highlighting the potential reliability of this
analytical approach. Towards A $164,000 Bitcoin By 2025? Now
extending his analytical framework to the upcoming cycles, he
ventured a bold prediction for the 2024-2025 period. The estimation
of the decaying peaks model sketches an ambitious trajectory that
could see Bitcoin reaching as high as $164,000. This projection is
based on continuing patterns observed in BTC’s past market
behaviors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised To Reach New All-Time
Highs: Expert Dives Into Tether’s Role As The Key However, caution
is required to consider these predictions with skepticism due to
the limited data set—only four market cycles have been analyzed to
date. The analyst noted: The precise exponential decay of the tops
(against the power law support) is worth taking with a big grain of
salt (we only have 4 data points now), but this is definitely worth
paying attention to as we move through the current cycle. Featured
image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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