Monthly Report
November 20 2003 - 6:26AM
UK Regulatory
RNS Number:2976S
Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC
20 November 2003
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC
REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2003
SUMMARY
The Latin American benchmark was up 5.1% in October, staging its best
performance in six months. This was led by healthy gains in Brazil, Chile, Peru
and Venezuela. Mexico remained the regional laggard, as it has for most of the
year. Year to date, Latin America continues to outperform both the U.S. markets
and its emerging market peers.
Our NAV was up 3.0% for the month, again underperforming the index due to the
surge in several Brazilian stocks not owned in the portfolio (Eletrobras,
Embraer and the cellular companies) due to their balance sheet considerations or
other risk factors. In addition, our overweight Mexico position continued to
hamper performance. For the year to date, our NAV is up 32.8% versus an increase
in the index of 39.0%.
BRAZIL
The Brazilian MSCI rose 7.8% for the month despite the currency weakening by
0.9% against sterling. As expected, the Brazilian Central Bank cut its benchmark
Select rate by 100 basis points at the October Monetary Policy Committee
meeting. On the macro side, reports of a better than expected growth in
industrial production for August, and stronger than expected current account
balance gave an added push to the market. The Central government's fiscal
surplus reached a higher than expected balance for September and Brazil is now
ahead of the IMF's targets. Brazil successfully issued US $1.5 billion of 2010
bonds at a spread of 561 basis points over US Treasuries, the country's lowest
borrowing cost ever. The market was led higher by several stocks in the index,
namely Eletrobras, the aircraft producer Embraer and several small cap cellular
companies. The biggest detractors included Ambev, Gerdau, Brazil Telecom,
Petrobras, Aracuz and VCP, all strong franchises owned in the portfolio.
MEXICO
The Mexican market was the laggard again for the month, up only 0.4%. The
Mexican peso again detracted, down 2.3% against sterling. The country
underperformed despite more positive noise concerning the approval of meaningful
electricity reform. The PRI leadership also appeared committed to the approval
of meaningful fiscal reform. Industrial production continued to show weak
results, with the worst performing sector manufacturing. Economic activity
declined much worse in August than expectations with a seasonally adjusted GDP
decline of 0.5%. The peso weakened to an all time low of MX 11.30 to the USD
early in the month, recovering slightly by month end. The Finance Ministry
lowered GDP forecasts for the year to 1.5%, which is still higher than most
economists' projections. Stock wise, Mexican third quarter corporate results
were mixed. In general, revenues were up slightly, while net income was down
largely driven by Peso weakness. The best performing stocks were Alfa, Elektra,
Grupo Carso and Comermex, while Telmex and Televisa also outperformed the
Mexican index. While the country continues to exhibit sound macro fundamentals,
excluding growth, we are still waiting for confirmation of an upturn before the
equity market will respond.
CHILE
The Chilean MSCI again outperformed the regional index for the month, up 8.7% in
sterling terms with the peso strengthening nearly 3.5% against the pound. This,
despite lower than expected economic figures for the month. The strength of
international copper prices did help bolster the currency. We have added to
Chile recently and our exposure is currently 8% versus the benchmark of 11.3% at
month end. The manager is concerned about valuations, which have reached
historic peaks in some cases, and lack of liquidity, however is seeking
exceptions to this trend.
ARGENTINA
The Argentine MSCI rose 3.0% for the month, with the peso down 0.7% against
sterling. September industrial production grew nearly 15% but declined versus
May. The government announced terms of the proposed debt restructuring, which
were much worse than market expectations. In a political defeat, several of
President Kirchner's candidates lost their gubernatorial elections to political
adversaries, spelling problems for passage of Kirchner's platform. Tariff
revisions have been under attack by Kirchner, adding further concern that the
utilities (electric and telephone) will be able to recoup losses. The manager
feels the risk is too high at present to invest in Argentine companies.
PERU / VENEZUELA
The Peruvian market had another great month, up 11.0% in sterling terms however
the New Sol weakened again against the pound. Our sole holding, Buenaventura,
contributed positively to performance as we have an overweight position and it
was up over 20% for the month. The Peruvian economy continues to post decent
growth figures this year on the back of strong mining activity.
Venezuela was also up strongly for the month, also over 11%, however its
representation in the index continues to be negligible. Finance Minister Nobrega
stated the Venezuelan economy is likely to have contracted over 9% for the third
quarter, worse than expectations. High oil prices are the only factor keeping
the economy afloat in the manager's opinion, and the risk of political upheaval,
combined with the lack of investment opportunities keeps the manager from
acquiring any positions in the country.
BORROWINGS
We currently intend to increase our borrowings modestly towards the 10% level in
anticipation of a year-end rally.
NET ASSET VALUE
Fully diluted
31/10/03 30/09/03 31/10/03 30/09/03
75.3p 73.1p 80.5p 78.8p
MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/10/03 30/09/03
Ordinary Shares 65.00p 64.00p
Warrants 14.25p 12.30p
Discount/(Premium) % 13.7 12.4
NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of #36.0 million (#35.0 million).
Market exposure
31/10/03 30/09/03
% %
EQUITIES
Brazil 51.2 50.3
Chile 7.9 4.6
Mexico 37.9 41.8
Peru 2.5 2.2
TOTAL PORTFOLIO 99.5 98.9
Net Current Assets 0.5 1.1
-------- --------
TOTAL 100.0 100.0
-------- --------
Based on total assets of #38.9 million (#38.0 million).
GEARING
Gearing at 31/10/03 30/09/03
8.2% 8.6%
==== ====
LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value #36.4 million equal to 94.1% of total portfolio)
Country #000's % of
portfolio
Petrobras Brazil 4,328 11.2
Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 3,526 9.1
America Movil Mexico 3,072 7.9
Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,712 7.0
Telmex Mexico 2,330 6.0
Banco Itau Brazil 2,026 5.2
Ambev Brazil 1,924 5.0
Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,811 4.7
Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,723 4.5
G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,566 4.0
Cemex Mexico 1,527 3.9
Minas Buenaventura Peru 982 2.6
Enersis Chile 938 2.4
Sider Nacional Brazil 912 2.4
Brasil Telecom Brazil 899 2.3
Cemig Cia Brazil 896 2.3
Femsa Mexico 866 2.2
Unibanco Brazil 717 1.9
Gerdau Brazil 667 1.7
Bco Santander Chile 631 1.6
Telecom de Chile Chile 609 1.6
Bco Bradesco Brazil 468 1.2
Quimica Chile 443 1.2
Pao de Acucar Brazil 432 1.1
Aracruz Celulose Brazil 426 1.1
For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers
Limited on 020-7545-0520.
For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors'
Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which
shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use
their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520,
e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American
Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be
found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at
www.deutsche-its.co.uk.
Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche
Investment Trust Managers Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to
future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as
rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in
exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in
Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with
emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END
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