bradford86
20 hours ago
well, i wasn't forced to sell at lower prices, i was buying at lower prices... so there is that, make me the poster of capitalizing on irrationality that persists and increases for 9 years
at first, it was me that was irrational, but at the end of the day today and moving forward, it is not me that is irrational,
JSmith5
1 day ago
when was anyone right. GSEs are nothing more than a gamble period!
Since even a broken clock is right twice a day, even Nats may (I say may) be right once every 16 years and Nats wife is always right - although she does not have an opinion on the GSEs.
Years ago my dad told me - "I don't like to give advice - and I don't think I have ever given you any. But, to succeed in life, you need to know 2 things:
Regardless of the situation - home, school, work, social life and even sports - whether you are dealing with your mother, wife, sister, grandmother, great grandmother, girl friend, fiancee, mother-in-law or just some random women - the correct response to any request or question they may ask you, or any argument you may get into with them is either "YES MA'AM!" or YES MA'AM YOU ARE RIGHT!" Even if they are wrong."
I've come to live by this rule.
Nats
JSmith5
1 day ago
$30 if spspa is written down and $80 if free warrants are sold back to the GSEs at $1.
Close - I still generally agree with the Ackman model where he says about $47 with the $2B/yr dividend for juniors turned back on.
The Nats Utility Model shows $30B net income results in $20B available for us peons and $10B to feed the kitty. The juniors get their $2B cut off the top and the 9B commons divi up the remaining $18B. Giving the old people their traditional 5% dividend they demand regardless of whether the 1 yr TBill pays 1% or 10%, results in a stock price of... (wait a minute as I have to grab my $15 Target calculator) ...enough to buy 2.66666666666 Target calculators per share. Since mine is over 5 years old I am hoping they have added the square root function to the new ones (not that I would ever use it, but it sounds impressive if you know what its for).
This is all predicated on shitcanning the seniors - which I am semi-counting on (as a holder of both common and juniors as don't want to have all my eggs in one 16 year old basket). If not, the commons go below the Ackman Mendoza line and I don't get a new calculator with the square root function.
We will see. I still say EO, maybe in the first 90 days - but will probably be a general statement something like "We are fixing to release the GSEs" (written by JD Vance, of course if you don't recognize the hand of the author).
Merry Christmas and a prosperous (as in GSE release) New Year to all!
Nats