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Fannie Mae (QB)

Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAG)

17.10
0.42
(2.52%)
Closed December 07 4:00PM

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krab krab 38 minutes ago
Lets hope next week the whales hear your horn, and both FnF surpasses the $3.60
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navycmdr navycmdr 53 minutes ago
a Monday pop on next nomination - could be the next FHFA Director ?

https://x.com/MustardNoMayo/status/1864921939631841568?t=_pSKltp7QQhAZfux3qz7Ew&s=19

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Lite Lite 1 hour ago
Where was Whalen working 2006 - 2008? Any articles from him on the impending housing issue? I see He worked for Bear-Stearns, but didn’t see the year(s) employed.

I did see another article while looking on Housing Wire - in case you missed it:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/mba-bob-broeksmit-gse-exit-conservatorship-fannie-mae-freddie-mac/#:~:text=Removing%20the%20government%2Dsponsored%20enterprises,of%20Republican%20leaders%20in%20government
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RickNagra RickNagra 1 hour ago
$4 by Friday.
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Kimbrown Kimbrown 2 hours ago
Any suggestion at the point, such as a utility model, is intended to drag on the conservatorship. Time has proved no need of any new models, such as a utility model, etc.
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evenpar evenpar 2 hours ago
I hate to say he has a couple valid points so it will take a few years I think to transition but if you've been in prison for 15 years and your time is up your time is up you don't stay in prison.....
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Golfbum22 Golfbum22 2 hours ago
his photo even looks like he is lying

he would be a terrible poker player

I would laugh at that face across the table

LMAO

-gotta love it when his friend Josh R calls him out too for fake news. too funny

surprised anyone is still paying him for fake news

kinda like paying our lawyers that always lose even when they win
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stockprofitter stockprofitter 3 hours ago
Whalen the fraud…drown soon enough.

Buddy is a crackhead.
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MannSinger MannSinger 3 hours ago
Whalen is SLAVE of Wall Street or WB!!!
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nagoya1 nagoya1 3 hours ago
Just like whales blowing air, whalen blows.
Fnma
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navycmdr navycmdr 3 hours ago
Whalen is constantly attacking GSE release ...

https://www.housingwire.com/podcast/chris-whalen-on-removing-fannie-and-freddie-from-conservatorship-under-trump/



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TightCoil TightCoil 4 hours ago
FNMA - Strong Hold
FMCC - Strong Hold
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FOFreddie FOFreddie 5 hours ago
Hi Nats - do you have any thoughts on how the GSEs multifamily program could be redirected to incentivize the construction of multi-family housing as part of a new DJT housing program? I think this was brought up in one of the pod casts - (K&W).? I think you will disagree but I see this a low hanging DOGE fruit where they can propose the EXIT to unlock $ 200 bn for the US Taxpayer but potentially also as part of an Housing initiative by Executive Action. It seems like no one believes Housing Legislation can pass Congress so it seems that everything will be by Executive Action.

There may also be some tension between the Utility Model which will imply a market valuation driven by dividend yield and perhaps some targeted riskier initiatives like a multi-family initiative.
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navycmdr navycmdr 6 hours ago
Walter woke up from being face down in oatmeal

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Guido2 Guido2 6 hours ago
Shared it with Ackman and Icahn. Thanks for the feedback. Totally agree.

https://x.com/GuidoPerei/status/1865458452392497425

https://x.com/GuidoPerei/status/1865458684756951137
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Clark6290 Clark6290 6 hours ago
$90 pps $is $something $only $a $clown $would $believe. Huston, we have a pencil neck
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Clark6290 Clark6290 6 hours ago
Yeah, I see that a lot. Some post stock pps data repeatedly as if they are the only clown that has access to pps information
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navycmdr navycmdr 6 hours ago
Clueless clowns don't offer "any" data

or arguments - they just post 5 cents ..

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JSmith5 JSmith5 6 hours ago
its not, you don't want a utility model, your stock won't rise

Huh? You are not dealing with Microsoft here. These are already being treated as utilities and will continue to be so after release. A highly regulated duopoly.

You see - back in 2008 - they created what you call a "Conservatorship." Please note that we always start that word with a capital letter because, to us, its THEE Conservatorship. (Like the United States and Corn Nuts are always started with capital letters to distinguish which united and what states and which brand of corn nuts we are referring to.)

These companies were to be regulated by the FHFA. (I think that stands for Failed Housing for Families Administration - but am not sure.) until they could find a more permanent solution. Sort of like a solution in search of a problem.

After 16 years of various proposals of ways to change the mortgage finance system, perhaps even getting rid of the GSEs, the powers-that-be (unsure of who these folks are, but heard a lot about them over the years) have decided - screw it - we can't think of anything better. Which is a great conclusion considering it seems to work pretty well (opinion of the Mortgage Bankers Association aside). And it looks like the powers that be have decided that a utility model would help them to not get too greedy by taking on riskier and riskier loans to grow their business ("so your stock would rise"). Like loans backed with an average FICO score of 720 and an average LVT of 50% (sorry to keep bringing this up - but release us already - how Safe and Sound do you need to be?).

My only question of the powers-that-be is why did it take you 16 years to reach this conclusion? Also, while we are in the neighborhood, I did have one more question for them - why did they discontinue making the Cool Ranch version of Corn Nuts? Both questions have been bothering me for quite a while.

Good luck to all of us

Nats
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JOoa0ky JOoa0ky 7 hours ago
Which clueless clown wrote this? Price target for commons is 5 cents.
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JSmith5 JSmith5 7 hours ago
the true reason for the conservatorship: TO BUY BAD MORTGAGES HELD BY TBTF BANKS

Exactly. Regardless of what they say, to save the banking system, they treated the GSEs as a financial trash can. GSEs saved the whole banking system and then look what happened to them. This falls under the old saying "no good deed goes unpunished."

Nats
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MRJ25 MRJ25 7 hours ago
Regardless of how the warrants were paid or not paid.
If the government tries to exercise them there will be injunctions and lawsuits filed.
The government needs to get busy and settle this charade.
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navycmdr navycmdr 8 hours ago
$Fannie $Mae (FNMA) – $Price $Target $90


Fannie Mae (FNMA) – Price Target $90
Posted on December 6, 2024

Fannie Mae

Two BUY recommendations were posted on November 26, 2022[1] and September 13, 2023[2] for Federal National Mortgage Association or Fannie Mae (FNMA) common stock. This post will analyze the conservatorship, Net Worth Sweep, Fannie Mae’s earnings, and provide a potential price target.

Conservatorship and Net Worth Sweep

On September 6, 2008, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) took full control over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Major losses in 2007 and 2008 stemming from defaults in the mortgage market prompted the start of the government conservatorship. The conservatorship directed the FHFA to act as conservator to preserve and conserve the assets of Fannie and Freddie. Once Fannie and Freddie recovered its losses, it would be released from the FHFA’s control.[3]

The conservatorship included an agreement between the U.S. Treasury and Fannie Mae. The Treasury bought senior preferred stock in Fannie and Freddie in exchange for a $100 billion capital commitment to each company. In exchange, Fannie would pay the Treasury a 10% dividend. The capital commitment was increased to $200 billion and then ultimately raised to an unlimited amount through the end of 2012.

However, without notice to shareholders, on August 17, 2012, the Treasury and FHFA changed the agreement. The Treasury knew Fannie would make record profits in the future and directed the companies to pay 100% of its net profits to the Treasury instead of 10%.[4] On the first year of the net worth sweep in 2013, Fannie Mae posted its highest annual profit ever of $83.9 billion. As a result, Fannie and Freddie were forced to pay 100% of its profit or over $130 billion in cash dividends to the Treasury. Fannie and Freddie were forced to pay $111 billion more than what the original 10% dividend would have been. At the end of 2013, Fannie’s share price closed at $3.01.

Shareholders filed a class action lawsuit against the FHFA in 2013. “First filed in 2013, the lawsuit by Fannie and Freddie shareholders bounced between the trial and appellate courts over the next decade, with Hume arguing and winning a successful federal appeal in the D.C. Circuit in 2017. The case was finally heard by a federal jury in the fall of 2022, but that jury could not agree upon a unanimous verdict. The second time around, the jury issued a resounding and historic rebuke against the government’s overreach.”[5] Since the conclusion of the court proceedings the presiding judge has yet to finalize the verdict.

Make Fannie and Freddie Great Again



In his last term, President Donald Trump was trying to release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship. “My Administration would have sold the government’s common stock in these companies at a huge profit and fully privatized the companies,” Trump wrote in a 2021 letter after he left office to Republican Sen. Rand Paul. “The idea that the government can steal money from its citizens is socialism and is a travesty brought to you by the Obama/Biden administration. My Administration was denied the time it needed to fix this problem because of the unconstitutional restriction on firing Mel Watt,” the FHFA director at the time, Trump said.[6]

Donald Trump won the election in November 2024 and is appointing a cabinet that is focused on the release of Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship.[7] “The government’s stake in the two mortgage giants could be valued at billions of dollars, meaning a spinoff would potentially net a big payday for the government and private investors in the two companies, said Ted Tozer, who led Ginnie Mae, a separate government-sponsored mortgage company, during the Obama administration.”[8]

Hedge fund managers John Paulson and Bill Ackman are participating in the background to help Trump and his cabinet release Fannie and Freddie. Paulson and Ackman have been vocal about their stakes in the two companies.[9] [10] According to FOX Business, Paulson’s investments in government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae “played a role in his dropping out of the Treasury Secretary contention,” suggesting it signals “a huge clue that privatizing the GSEs may be back on the table” for the incoming Trump Treasury.”[11]

Fannie Mae’s Earnings

Below are tables of Fannie Mae’s annual net income from 1985 to 2023 for reference.[12] The tables are separated by time periods ranging from 1985 – 2001, 2002 – 2006, 2007 – 2011, and 2012-2023. The table includes the year, annual net income, percentage change from the prior year, and different periods of growth highlighted.




Exponential Potential?

There are two ways to plot data; linearly and logarithmically.

A linear scale has equal distance between each data point.[13] If exponential growth occurs between each data point, a linear scale will not display it accurately. Therefore, plotting data that grows exponentially on a linear scale will be meaningless.[14] Linear scales are used for precise measurement, not measurements that variate. A linear scale is used to display a map, nautical chart, engineering drawing, or architectural drawing.[15] Reading an improperly scaled map might lead one to the wrong destination.

A logarithmic scale does not have an equal distance between each data point. The spacing between each data point is not proportional, hence more suitable for unequal changes in data. Negative numbers are not plotted on a logarithmic scale, so all numbers are positive. The distance between data points is a multiple of a base number raised to a power. In other words, if exponential growth occurs, a logarithmic scale will display that growth. Logarithmic scales are better suited to plot large numbers that cover a large range.[16] This may include a company’s earnings, sound levels, or earthquake magnitudes.

Fannie Mae’s annual net income from 1984 to 2023 is graphed below. The first graph is scaled linearly.


Graph created using https://draxlr.com/

From 1985 to 2001, Fannie Mae’s net income grew from $37 million to $5.89 billion or approximately a 16,000% increase. The large percentage increase of 16,000% is barely noticeable on a linear scale. Smaller variations are difficult to view, such as between 2002 to 2006, when earnings only grew 4%. Also, the linear chart inaccurately displays the 488% gain as a larger line than the 648% gain.

In contrast, the second graph below is scaled logarithmically.


Graph created using https://draxlr.com/

As a result, the exponential rise from 1985 to 2001 is more prominently displayed. The variation in earnings from 2002 to 2006 is more visible. Logarithmic scales display only real numbers therefore the losses from 2007 to 2011 are not plotted. The change between 2012 and 2013 is not as pronounced versus the linear chart. This suggests the current earnings do not appear distant from the record profit-making year of 2013. Since the distance between each data point is based upon a percentage change, a logarithmic scale accurately displays the magnitude of a change in values. An example is from 2017 to 2018 when earnings went from $2B to $15.9B or a 648% increase. 648% is a larger line than 488% whereas on the linear chart it was incorrectly scaled by a large distance. In conclusion, the logarithmic chart scales Fannie’s earnings more accurately than the linear chart.


Graph created using https://draxlr.com/

Using a logarithmic scale instead of a linear scale proposes the following conclusions about Fannie’s earnings. Fannie’s 5-year earnings dispersion lies at a higher level approximately 3 to 3.5x higher than in 2006 and prior. Fannie Mae traded at its all-time high of $89.38 in 2000. In 2000, Fannie Mae earned $4.4B. The average of Fannie Mae’s most recent 5-year earnings from 2019-2023 equates to $15.6B. In other words, Fannie Mae has earned 3.5x more than it did in 2000.

Which Price May Be Right?

Subnani Investment Research, LLC believes the price of Fannie Mae’s common shares should be higher than its all-time high of $89.38 considering the current earnings are 3.5x higher than when Fannie’s shares were trading at its peak. This represents an undervaluation of approximately 33x of the current market price. The firm believes the significant mispricing is a result of a market inefficiency. In economic theory, an inefficient market is one in which an asset’s prices do not accurately reflect its true value. “Market inefficiencies exist due to information asymmetries, transaction costs, market psychology, and human emotion, among other reasons. As a result of market inefficiencies, assets may be over- or undervalued in the market, creating opportunities for excess profits.”

Technical analysis is a method used in financial charting to determine trends of a stock. If market inefficiencies exist, technical analysis holds merit. The 200-day simple moving average is a key indicator that may provide potential entry and exit points or identify the direction of an overall trend. Fannie Mae’s price closed below the simple moving average in November 2007 at $38.42 during the real estate meltdown. This indicated a major bearish signal. However, in November, Fannie Mae closed at $3.13, significantly above the 200-day simple moving average of $1.86. The firm believes the close above the 200-day simple moving average is a bullish signal and an indication of a major reversal of the overall trend.

Below is a monthly chart of Fannie Mae dating from 1985 to present scaled linearly and scaled logarithmically. Stock prices do not move proportionately day-to-day. Scaling the price data similarly to how the earnings were above yields a strikingly different appearance. While $90 may seem unattainably distant when scaled linearly, the logarithmic chart appears to shorten that distance.


Fannie Mae common stock price (1985-2024) / ThinkorSwim Charting / Linear Scale


Fannie Mae common stock price (1985-2024) / ThinkorSwim Charting / Logarithmic scale

Stock prices experience exponential changes therefore the firm expects the stock to recover faster than anticipated. The firm maintains its STRONG BUY rating and has a $90 price target. To become a client, contact Sanju via email at ssubnani@sinvestsllc.com.
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 8 hours ago
they most likely already know each other, publicly they need to not talk, its just more ammo for snakes like Mad Maxine who want to steal as much of everyone's money and give to HER people. No wonder racism is alive and well at the likes of her and Al Sharptongue, it wont go away until they do.
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Donotunderstand Donotunderstand 8 hours ago
Thank you

I think the evidence does show F and F got caught with their pants down at first by holding insanely crappy PLMBS as a key part of key reserves

But any long term reader of this board knows F and F have low delinquencies and such --- and have made huge and huger profits - NONE of which would be possible if they were forced to buy Billions and Billions of junk . The results - low loss ratios or however its called and huge profits do NOT happen when you are saddled with owning the junk of others in serious size
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Donotunderstand Donotunderstand 8 hours ago
good points but maybe an over reach?

you note
Yet many of these late comers are same people who complain that the Government screwed us. They didn't screw me because I bought in the post-screw period as I think most of us did.

yes - but
I lost on initial JPS and common
I gained on trading
Today most if not all of what I hold I bought at 2021 lows and again 2023 lows ( I think)

BUT ---- I thought this was a wise speculation because the history included IMO a ton of robbery and poor lawyering and poor judgements and that at some point - the ROBBERY had to be paid back at some time in some reasonable profit way for a speculation (say 4X or 8X or 15X)

So I can say the GOV screwed me by not living up to its obligations ---- the current rally allowed me to unload a thin part of my JPS at 7X or so - and the common is up about 5X (after the original losses I still am down) from where I bought those. But not being a victim of hidden GOV actions and the NWS - does not mean those of us who bought on the expectation of "justice" are not victims of a lack of justice
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Donotunderstand Donotunderstand 8 hours ago
We do not know that

From what I read - FNMA and FMCC sat on a ton of cash - Retained Earnings -

To compete with TBTF banks and others - FNMA CHOSE on their own to maximize interest income and throw away concern for risk . So F and F bought - to hold as reserves !! backing the FNMA and FMCC MBS paper --- tons and tons of TBTF Private Label MBS. When the shist that the greedy banks wrote blew up ---- that blew up in the face of F and F

No one forced F and F to try and maximized interest income at the expense of prudent management of their reserves. No one know how HORRIBLE THE PLMBS paper was --- no one had any idea is lies on lies on more lies. So again I blame banks and banks and banks ---- but F and F reserves were hurt by a reach for what they thought was wise investment in PLMBS
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Donotunderstand Donotunderstand 8 hours ago
why does that impact PPS of FNMA and its freedom

hell they can have 20,000 employees if they free us in an equity favorable fashion - we are talking muti trillion dollar companies earning tens of billions a year
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Donotunderstand Donotunderstand 9 hours ago
Yes but

Musk and Viv are only recommendations (see RR's GRACE Commission - i.e. nothing happened - nothing for a serious equal size effort to CHANGE the world)

But the EXECUTIVE - v CONGRESS is what we need

Hey if M and V root for current equity GREAT ---- but indeed they are "fans" and not real players

key is - how far can the Executive reach to change things without Congress and some of us think that is a long reach ---- but still wonder what DJT really cares about or understands - given round one did negative
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Donotunderstand Donotunderstand 9 hours ago
Agree this has fewer bias driven mistakes and covers a LOT of interesting ground

I think ? the organization behind these two authors represents the small and smaller banks and thus has little influence?
I think ? those people who wrote this lean left - thus have little influence

BUT They assume a utility model is necessary and possible for an executive (non legislative) exit

That is encouraging - even if they give few details

thank you for the link
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Donotunderstand Donotunderstand 9 hours ago
in terms of value or PPS of FNMA --- salaries at FHFA are .0000001 or whatever

now killing it somehow and drawing a straight line to a Treasury department - hhhmmm

likely not good or bad for operations but could assist TREASURY to kill the LP/SP 200B overhang?

??
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MrRubs92 MrRubs92 9 hours ago
If no one else cares, please keep posting. I have used it several times to assist me on averaging. Your comment on Wednesday made me large gains so thanks brother!
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NeoSunTzu NeoSunTzu 9 hours ago
Fiderer needs to connect with Ackman OR Ackman needs to know of Fiderer ... I'd be surprised if this already is NOT the case, but stranger things have happened ... Ackman's inside position with the Admin, his long-term/long-time investment, PLUS all the well-thoughout threads and ammo from Fiderer are exactly what this needs to get us where we all want to go ...

I've said all along the graceful way for the government out of this is to hint (or even explicitly state) that all the excessive efforts to take, hold, and accumulate capital from the GSEs was to comply with the c'ship AND RETURN the capital so the twins would be fully capitalized for business on day one without the further need for any outside capital or further govt involvement (warrants sold back, the unnecesary liquidation preference deemed protective only and now gone, as well as the sr preferred / provided funds paid back ... etc.)
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 10 hours ago
there are very few that have accumulated like the Officers and Gentlemen on this board and of course Bill and John, they get it, and will reap great rewards. the rest of us, or at least me, gets some retribution for sleezy government control and greed.
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Guido2 Guido2 10 hours ago
Another brilliant thread by Fiderer:
https://x.com/Ny1david/status/1865179184881906110
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 10 hours ago
uh he has screwed up everything he has done cause he lets people behind him and handlers post for him sign for him(possibly), put up sick decorations without his say, last thing we want is his stinky hand into something someone else can use to their advantage and greed. we can wait for next guy, he WILL have a team that fixes and makes right as much as possible.
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HappyAlways HappyAlways 11 hours ago
This is a robbery.

1. Treasury forced upon Fannie and Freddie a loan, so that they could digest the toxic mortgages held by the TBTF. The loan carried 10% annual interest and 79.9% free warrants to Treasury.

2. Treasury and FHFA imposed the Net Worth Sweep on Fannie and Freddie in 2012, to make sure they can never exit their conservatorship. In the same year that NWS was imposed, Fannie and Freddie repaid $141 Billions for a loan of $191 billions. Without NWS, the loan balance and annual interest would be immediately reduced to $50 Billions and $5 Billions. And, the loan should have been fully paid off in 2015.

How shameless are the US Treasury and the administration to allow this to happen. It is crystal clear a case of Illegal Taking of Private Property.

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Rodney5 Rodney5 11 hours ago
Think about this “the warrant’s exercise price of $0.00001 per share is considered non-substantive (compared to the market price of our common stock), the warrant was evaluated based on its substance rather than its form.” … non-substantive, Ha

As we consider the intricate design of the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement the conclusion this was not hashed out over night. No, this was a premeditated attack planned far in advance, ‘Crime’ …

In the end it will be brought to justice no one will escape the Law governing our universe for whatsoever a man sows that will he also reap for the Judge of heaven and earth will have the last word.
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Rodney5 Rodney5 11 hours ago
The company was forced into a contract and gave away the Senior Preferred Stock for free along with the 79.9 % warrants to be purchased at a nominal price. The Treasury did not pay the company a billon dollars.

Quote: “We did not receive any cash proceeds from Treasury at the time the senior preferred stock or the warrant was issued.” End of Quote
page 25 Form 10K December 31, 2008

79.9% gives the Treasury 4.6 billion shares x 0.00001= $46,000. Forty six thousand dollars for 79.9 % of the company.

If the warrant is exercised, the stated value of the common stock issued will be reclassified as “Common stock” in our consolidated balance sheet. Because the warrant’s exercise price of $0.00001 per share is considered non-substantive (compared to the market price of our common stock), the warrant was evaluated based on its substance rather than its form.

Page F 10

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/310522/000095013309000487/w72716e10vk.htm#304;
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Release us Release us 13 hours ago
DOGE will grill FHFA
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mrfence mrfence 15 hours ago
I know it was some tiny fraction of a penny so less than cheap wall paper. IMO, if the Gooberment wants to make a profit they need to earn it and print each canceled Warrant individually. Like I said before, I'll take 1,000 square Ft. Bidding $0.10 a square.
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MRJ25 MRJ25 18 hours ago
Government paid a very low price for the warrants. Somewhere around 50 thousand dollars.
So, it is on the books for that amount. They can claim to get at least that money back.
I do not know how they paid for it. I believe they gave credit towards the loan. Same as the 1 billion dollars for the SPS.
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mrfence mrfence 19 hours ago
I'll take 1,000 square ft. 😅🤣😂
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jog49 jog49 19 hours ago
Same price as cheap wallpaper.
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jog49 jog49 19 hours ago
Let's f*** with the moronic dementia patient. Let's tell Biden her privately promised to release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorships at the same time he pardoned Hunter and that he is now running out of time on his term in office!
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mrfence mrfence 19 hours ago
What are warrants that can't be exercised worth? 🤣
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jog49 jog49 19 hours ago
"Warrants cannot be exercised but can be sold back to the companies for a negotiated price."

A fair price, if it has to be done at all, is $1 for every 50,000 shares.....provided the governments pays up the $1 for every 100,000 shares of the warrants agreement shoved down our throats . . . which the government did not pay. On second thought, the government didn't pay so why should we pay?
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ron_66271 ron_66271 19 hours ago
Today’s Final LIBOR Document Count is 33 Filings.

FDIC as Receiver, and both FNMA and FMCC are listed.



Ron
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Bostonsesco Bostonsesco 20 hours ago
Times 3 its 2024 not 2007
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Bostonsesco Bostonsesco 20 hours ago
My Hood Economics agrees with pat...


Simple math 

Everything triples in 10 years 
Upon going into conservatorship they were valued around 

$75 bucks X 3 = $225 
This Been going on 15 years 
So $225 (10 yr) + $112.50 (5 yr) = $337.50 

Which lines me up squarely between 

Pats Real analytics   
$290 

Esco's imaginary stock empire as if he was some street corner general running a criminal enterprise like it's GTA 5, the streets is calling I heard it when I was sleep! Let me live (No Cap)

$340
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