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Fannie Mae (QB)

Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAG)

17.10
0.42
( 2.52% )
Updated: 11:25:58

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2latefortears 2latefortears 3 minutes ago
There's already so many cooks in the kitchen, I don't think Congress will be involved. They had their chance in the last 15 years and not much was accomplished (to say the least).
Thanks, good luck!
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pauljon4 pauljon4 3 minutes ago
Alright So a bit of trading between yesterday and this morning. I now officially have all of my FNMA FMCC shares at a zero cost basis.
Great feeling! But still have a s-load of shares and will be very pissed off when it dips for no F'in reason.
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Lite Lite 5 minutes ago
My guess is that after confirmation, Mr Bessent will get His interview, hopefully with Maria, who will pose the CONservatorship question. She has been good and appears sincere towards Shareholders and deserves that opportunity/interview. GLTA
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FOFreddie FOFreddie 6 minutes ago
Thanks Nats. Seems like the div yield and potential cram down risk will dictate the potential upside on common then. If you assume $ 12.5 bn earnings for FMCC and a 50% payout ratio - pro forma market cap is $ 125 bn and we need $ 125 bn for regulatory cap. I was assuming 3% div yield and higher potential valuations.
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Lite Lite 10 minutes ago
If that’s what Congress wants, then they shouldn’t let the Housing Oversight Board go rogue while ignoring the GAO’s recommendations. Even former President Clinton admitted fault. That’s the difference between solid fiscal policy and what we have witnessed with a Congress that appears to have failed to support a balanced budget.

We hope, we pray and ‘We The People’ take action. GLTA with your support of this legislation process. I really enjoy reading your comments.

“The biggest hang-up from both sides is the "private gains, taxpayer bailout" scenario they don't want to repeat.”
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Viking61 Viking61 13 minutes ago
Thanks
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Viking61 Viking61 13 minutes ago
Thanks
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jog49 jog49 20 minutes ago
I'm not convinced the DOGE will be sniffing around. FHFA is not a taxpayer supported agency unless something has changed. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac supply their funding so we have been screwing ourselves all this time. Adam wouldn't have even needed Eve in the Garden of Eden if in our situation. He could screw himself!
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amelia43 amelia43 26 minutes ago
As much as I wish for $3, it’s not happening today we are too far from $3 to print $3.

In fact I think we might stay in the $2’s for a bit.
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wdereb79 wdereb79 26 minutes ago
Congrats on the great season. I wish you guys luck. As a Browns fan, I understand your misery very well unfortunately lol. Campbell is a great coach. I love his mentality. His players would run thru a brick wall for him.
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Stern is Bald Stern is Bald 32 minutes ago
Yep - fleecing is the key word... Most people just think these Uber rich set really care about their situation and aren't they smart enough to see what's going on behind the shiny objects..
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JSmith5 JSmith5 45 minutes ago
With a utility model FHFA still does not need 1200+ people.
Maybe 100 at most.

Look - I agree that 2 GS-5s and an untrained dog could run the place. But - wouldn't it be better to lay low on this issue and not disrupt the agency until we get our release set up? The last thing we need right now is for DOGE sniffing around. After that, I will go downtown and help them to load the UHaul.

Nats
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Adagio Lector Adagio Lector 51 minutes ago
The updates on the Manhattan side need to be done - Pier 17 and Tin Building are ok, but it's lagging behind the Brooklyn side, for sure.
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Rodney5 Rodney5 53 minutes ago
Utility Model, a government allowed monopoly. Fannie and Freddie would become dominate in the secondary mortgage market as a public service. Not to say other businesses would not be allowed in the secondary market. Operations would be monitored by a public utilities commission or similar government agency. Fannie and Freddie would operate as a public-service corporation and providing essential services to the public. Monopoly would exist as a cost-effective way to provide consumers with the best quality and price. For the best interests of society providing these services economically accessible to most or all of the population.

For investors, price control by the regulator with a predetermined profit margin, which would be limited to a predetermined % amount. No competition from the TBTF Bankers.
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JSmith5 JSmith5 54 minutes ago
Duke Energy - which someone provided as an example - is 3.65% so all this is within the ballpark. It may be frustrating to wait for more cap, but you are still talking almost $30B per year organically. Also, as it stands now, juniors would get the first $2B, averaging a 6% dividend.

These aren't tech companies and don't expect to see mega earning growth each year going forward. Because of the heavy regulation that continues after release, I have always assumed that, if not utilities per se, they would be released with some kind of earnings restriction.

To make the stock attractive as possible I think the dividend will be in the 4-5% range.

Nats
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Semper Fi 88 Semper Fi 88 57 minutes ago
Yes I'm aware. It's all just a " sales pitch" to pretend to be doing something while the fleecing continues. Our hope as longs here is trump will somehow position himself to reward from the release. Then we are golden sooner than later. However I have little faith in any of them but would not sell a share regardless at this juncture. I would love to see a take down to 50 cents again so I could double my position :) I know they will be released...just not by whom or when like everyone else. Meanwhile traders and Hedgies are making millions off newbs every day with this trade and HFTs. At least my shares cost me nothing so I'm a lot less stressed over this theft.
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MRJ25 MRJ25 1 hour ago
With a utility model FHFA still does not need 1200+ people.
Maybe 100 at most.
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FOFreddie FOFreddie 1 hour ago
Sorry to disagree and I understand your points regarding the SPS but there is no reference to the SPS in the warrant agreement which was entered into in Sept. 2008. This is just a warrant for the Common Stock. It is an easy way forward for the UST to move to EXIT. For me - I want EXIT ASAP and not wait until a new House in 2026 or a new Admin in 2028.
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JOoa0ky JOoa0ky 1 hour ago
Difaras only meant something when it was the old man tossing up the pies. But he's gone now and the whole place is now just sad.

You should give Una Pizza a try.
https://g.co/kgs/SbPSnig
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jog49 jog49 1 hour ago
The favorite dance here is the LIMBO . . . . has been since 2008!
How low can you go!
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Barron4664 Barron4664 1 hour ago
"THIS CERTIFIES THAT, for value received, the United States Department of the Treasury, with its principal
office at 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20220 (the “Holder”), is entitled to purchase"

These are the only words of importance in the contract. This sentence establishes a prohibited fee or charge related to the purchase of 1 million shares of senior preferred shares by Treasury. A violation of the Charter Acts of the GSE's and the Treasury's limited actions granted by Congress in HERA. Congress did not authorize Treasury to provide a "funding committment" upon which in consideration of such funding they may grant themselves 100,000 common shares/$1. Nor attach such funding as a LP on the sale of the seniors. All illegal. 
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FOFreddie FOFreddie 1 hour ago
Thanks Nats! Check out AGM - Farmer Mac - another US GSE - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AGM/

Farmer Mac has a 2.63 div yield - Fannie and Freddie are probably less risk because they are more diversified so maybe 3 to 3.5% div yield. $ 300 bn x 3% is $9 bn annually leaving $ 16 bn for cap. The question is how much dilution and then supporting that market cap with a div yield. If you assume Boltasky is right we will need about $ 75 bn more cap. Even if it is $ 375 bn X .03 = 11.25 bn in divs.

By comparison - JPM is around 2 pct but it has more growth prospects so it should be lower. SLM - Sallie Mae also has an approx 2% div yield
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Clark6290 Clark6290 1 hour ago
Doubtful. Are you Navy's alias
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2latefortears 2latefortears 1 hour ago
It sure has-the GSE's in conservatorship are basically operating like a utility now (without the dividends).
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JSmith5 JSmith5 1 hour ago
A utility is typically a low growth, defensive, steady performer even when the rest of the market is in a downturn (resistant to recessions). They usually pay a consistent dividend as well.

Along that line - despite COVID and other headwinds - hasn't their net income been consistent over the last few years?

Nats
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Guido2 Guido2 1 hour ago
The same agreement defines "fair value". 100,000 shares for a $ isn't fair value according to the same agreement and will be challenged.
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Guido2 Guido2 2 hours ago
Main drawback is more government interference than it previously had before conservatorship.
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JSmith5 JSmith5 2 hours ago
What might the numbers look like ?

I think you could back into it. Assume 5% dividend, 2/3 of net income distributed as dividends (which I have pointed out before is perfectly normal for a utility stock).
You have about $25B in combined income - so say $18B is distributed among the 1.8 billion shares. That's $10 a share. So the stock price would have to be $200.

Now this does not take into account the warrants, juniors and seniors, and so forth. All I am saying is that, unmolested by dilution, this is what I think would be in the ballpark.

I think that, pre conservatorship, these were largely old people utility-like dividend stocks - so makes sense from that standpoint.

Hope this helps.

Nats
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Viking61 Viking61 2 hours ago
Have you been to the Difara’s south Seaport location? A little closer to us.
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Sammy boy Sammy boy 2 hours ago
This Stock is so corrupt! Shit or get off the pot! Zero or $20, make up your mind!

Lamberth and Fauci would make great cell mates!

Where’s Porky live?
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FOFreddie FOFreddie 2 hours ago
But the Brooklyn Bridge is pretty high up on the totem pole for architectural marvels. Its amazing how that area has developed over the years - I remember when there was nothing there besides the Watchtower HQ.
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tzebedee tzebedee 2 hours ago
I've been a Lions fan thru all the thick and thin, I've had family look down on me when wearing the Hawaiian blue, for years! Say, 51 years ! "How could you be a LIONS fan????" I would say well, how sweet it'll be.. no bandwagoners allowed lol. Joking of course
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RickNagra RickNagra 2 hours ago
I think we might print $3 today.  Maybe not $4 but $3 for sure or mighty close to $3.  The Housing Wire article this morning would be the catalyst.  Let's hope other media outlets pick it up.  Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal would do the trick.
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2latefortears 2latefortears 2 hours ago
A utility is typically a low growth, defensive, steady performer even when the rest of the market is in a downturn (resistant to recessions). They usually pay a consistent dividend as well.
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Viking61 Viking61 2 hours ago
Thanks buddy we will today. We fly back to Minny to see the Vikings play tomorrow.
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jog49 jog49 2 hours ago
"Gse’s don’t sell loans and were not responsible for 2008"

Hell Golf, there are people in Congress that thought Fannie and Freddie were set up on every street corner in America loaning money for home purchases! And that mentality (or lack thereof) has been around since 1938.
Maybe Fannie and Freddie can loan me some money for a new car!
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FOFreddie FOFreddie 2 hours ago
Here is the Warrant Agreement for FMCC. It provides for a cash payment and it does not seem to have a anti-dilution protection. There is some wording in one of the covenants regarding dilution but that seems to be standard wording to protect against corporate funny business. The SPSA seems to be the real issue otherwise the remaining question is how much new capital will be required to maintain a AAA rating post EXIT.

https://www.fhfa.gov/sites/default/files/2023-03/fre-warrant.pdf
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jcromeenes jcromeenes 2 hours ago
Detroit has never won a Super Bowl. It's time. Dan Campbell seems like one of the greatest player's coaches EVER. Jared Goff is a great rehab story. So much for going for them. The injuries are a bitch. My team that I grew up watching also is TERRIBLE - Raiders. I'm rooting for Detroit to get their first SB ever!!! Between the Lions and the GSEs, I guess I just like underdogs.
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Brooge warrants cancelled Brooge warrants cancelled 2 hours ago
never tried , the other one is down there
try difara and L&B before you leave
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jcromeenes jcromeenes 2 hours ago
Based on his letter to Rand Paul, I'll name Donald J. Trump.
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Viking61 Viking61 2 hours ago
We like it. We got to know Patsy Grimaldi years ago . Always a good time. He’s probably 94 years old by now. He sold the original Grimaldi’s years ago and got bored in his eighties and started another pizza spot up next door to his original. Called it Julianna’s after his daughter I believe. Gino’s over by Atlantic is great also.
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jcromeenes jcromeenes 2 hours ago
What's so frustrating is that if an article came out that felt as negative as this is positive, we would be down 15%. Instead we are up a few pennies. It's been long enough. It's time for this baby to spread its wings and fly.
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RickNagra RickNagra 2 hours ago
Can someone kindly explain what an utility model would mean for us.  It seems to me we are headed in that general direction if we want to be released.  What might the numbers look like ?
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Golfbum22 Golfbum22 2 hours ago
Some of this article is good

Some of it is bogus fake news blaming the gse’s for bad behavior and bad loans

Gse’s don’t sell loans and were not responsible for 2008

Someone needs to tell these 2 who wrote this article to get their facts straight

But any news about release is better than no news

Go FnF
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jog49 jog49 2 hours ago
"there's support from within the DJT administration to release"

That's just a blanket statement that may or may not be true. Name some names! We all "support" release but none of us are in a position to do anything about it. Anybody in the Trump administration that you know who supports release and can do anything about it?
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 hours ago
2.62 on its way to 26
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JOoa0ky JOoa0ky 2 hours ago
Julianna's is pretty low on the totem pole for pizza rankings.
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2latefortears 2latefortears 2 hours ago
It's not that everyone WANTS a utility model, but if that's a parameter that gets the GSE's out of conservatorship with the least amount of political "fallout" this would get resolved much faster. The biggest hang-up from both sides is the "private gains, taxpayer bailout" scenario they don't want to repeat.
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FOFreddie FOFreddie 2 hours ago
Hi Ace, Do you think new investors would buy a GSE Common without Divs? Divs probably arent an issue - if the MV is $ 300bn and the Div yield is 4% - this would be $ 12 bn a year and $12 by could be held back to build capital. Probably a div ration of 40% - $ 25 bn x .4 = $ 10 bn in divs and $ 15 bn to build capital. In 10 years that is another $ 150bn in capital. The problem with capital is that it only earns the ROA for the GSEs which may be 3-5% so it will be a necessary inefficiency from a capital structure point of view.
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jog49 jog49 2 hours ago
"its not, you don't want a utility model, your stock won't rise"

Odd isn't it that so many of our fellow shareholders don't know that! Utilities put brackets around everything (share price, dividends, etc.) so limitations are everywhere you look?
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