RUBIS: Q3 & 9M 2024 Trading Update
November 05 2024 - 11:45AM
UK Regulatory
RUBIS: Q3 & 9M 2024 Trading Update
Paris, 5 November 2024, 5:45pm
- Energy
Distribution:
- Retail
& Marketing - Volume up 7% in Q3 2024, gross margin down
slightly (-1%) at €190m
- Steady performance
of LPG across the board.
- Solid performance
of fuel in the Caribbean region on the back of a record comparable
base. Jamaica and Guyana continue to deliver strong growth.
- Headwinds in
Africa:
- Stronger fuel
volume in East Africa. Gross margin under pressure after crude
prices went down over the quarter.
- Bitumen activity
improved thanks to the traction of South Africa. Margins declined
by 10% yoy due to a different country mix.
- Support
& Services - Gross margin down 25%
- LPG and fuel
trading in the Caribbean maintain a good momentum.
- Bitumen trading
volume decreased in Q3 2024 vs a high Q3 2023.
- Renewable
Electricity Production:
- Secured portfolio
above 1 GWp.
- Revenue at €17m, up
6% vs Q3 2023.
- Q3 2024
Group sales at €1,630m, up 2% vs Q3 2023 driven by
increasing volume sold in Africa.
- 2024
Guidance revised on 31 October 2024 to reflect sudden
changes in oil prices, delayed adjustment in pricing formula in
Kenya and lower bitumen trading activity.
- Closing of Rubis
Terminal disposal – Interim dividend of €0.75 per
share to be paid on 8 November 2024.
On 5 November 2024, Clarisse Gobin-Swiecznik,
Managing Partner, commented: “In our Energy Distribution -
Retail & Marketing business, this quarter saw a strong volume
growth, illustrating Rubis’ ability to gain market share. Unit
margins decreased due to sudden fall in oil prices combined with a
delay in the adjustment of the retail pricing formula in Kenya.
This short-term hit should lead to a rebound when prices stabilise
or increase. Mid to long-term, the Group’s sensitivity to oil
prices is limited and a market with lower prices is favourable to
product demand. On the Support & Services side, the Caribbean
region continued to deliver a strong performance in the trading of
LPG and fuel. As demand for bitumen trading in North America is
decreasing, Rubis is reviewing its approach by offering trading in
the Eastern part of the Atlantic to optimise the utilisation of its
vessels when in-house activity is lower. The negative short-term
effects faced in Q3 have led us to revise our FY 2024
guidance.”
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION
Retail &
Marketing
The third quarter of 2024 saw volume increasing
by 7% vs a high Q3 2023. Gross margin was down slightly at -1%,
reaching €190m in Q3.
VOLUME SOLD AND GROSS MARGIN BY
PRODUCT IN Q3
| |
Volume (in '000
m3) |
Gross margin (in €m) |
|
|
Q3 2024 |
Q3 2023 |
Q3 2024
vs Q3 2023 |
Q3 2024 |
Q3 2023 |
Q3 2024
vs Q3 2023 |
|
LPG |
304 |
298 |
2% |
70 |
69 |
0% |
|
Fuel |
1,095 |
1,018 |
8% |
107 |
107 |
0% |
|
Bitumen |
95 |
80 |
18% |
14 |
15 |
-10% |
|
TOTAL |
1,494 |
1,396 |
7% |
190 |
191 |
-1% |
LPG volume increased over the
quarter, mainly driven by a very dynamic bulk segment in Morocco
and continued strong demand growth in autogas in France and Spain.
These increases were partially offset by softer markets in South
Africa and Kenya. Gross margin remained stable, and unit margin
decreased by 2% yoy as a result of the different segment mix.
As regards fuel:
-
the retail
business (service stations representing 52% of Q3
fuel volume and 56% of Q3 fuel gross margin) experienced
varying trends across regions. Overall, volume increased
by 2% yoy in Q3 and gross margin rose by 6%. These dynamics were
primarily driven by:
- Caribbean: The
activity remained highly dynamic, with both volume and margins
growing significantly notably in Jamaica. However, Haiti hampered
regional performance with a volume decrease, while unit margin
remained stable,
- East Africa: Retail
activity rebounded with growth in Q3 after a challenging first half
of 2024. However, the gross margin was negatively affected, notably
by the decrease in crude prices;
- the
Commercial and Industrial business (C&I, representing
26% of fuel volume and 25% of Q3 fuel gross margin) remained stable
with a 1% increase in volume and 1% decrease in gross margin. This
was mainly driven by usual strong performance in Guyana and
Barbados. Madagascar saw a decrease in C&I activity after a
decision not to participate in the renewal of a public tender where
margins did not meet Group standards;
- the
aviation segment (representing 17% of fuel volume and 13%
of Q3 fuel gross margin) continued to be very
dynamic with volume growth reaching 32% over Q3. Gross
margin decreased by 12% due to the decrease in oil prices over the
quarter impacting inventory value.
Bitumen volume was up 18% yoy,
underpinned by the continued strong performance of South Africa,
Togo and Cameroon. Nigeria is still lagging. The gross margin
decreased by 10% yoy, representing €1m.
The table below provides volume and gross margin
split by region for Q3.
VOLUME SOLD AND GROSS MARGIN BY
REGION IN Q3
| |
Volume (in '000
m3) |
Gross margin (in €m) |
|
|
Q3 2024 |
Q3 2023 |
Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023 |
Q3 2024 |
Q3 2023 |
Q3 2024
vs Q3 2023 |
|
Europe |
219 |
198 |
11% |
47 |
45 |
5% |
|
Caribbean |
553 |
560 |
-1% |
78 |
78 |
0% |
|
Africa |
722 |
637 |
13% |
65 |
68 |
-5% |
|
TOTAL |
1,494 |
1,396 |
7% |
190 |
191 |
-1% |
By region, the dynamics of this quarter were as
follows:
-
Europe’s strong LPG positioning (LPG accounts for
86% of regional gross profit) continues to yield positive results.
This segment maintained its momentum with a 7% increase in volume
in Q3, driven by bulk and autogas in France and Spain. The margin
remained overall stable at +1%, with a lower performance in
Portugal over the quarter;
- in the
Caribbean region volume and margins stabilised in
Q3. This overall picture is the result of contrasting forces:
ongoing dynamism in the region, particularly in Jamaica and Guyana,
and a continued challenging situation in Haiti;
-
Africa began to recover after a difficult
first-half. Volume growth was strong across the board, but margins
were negatively impacted by the decrease in oil prices,
particularly in Kenya.
Support &
Services
The Support & Services
business recorded total revenue of €258m in Q3 2024 (+2% yoy).
Margins are decreasing significantly (-25% yoy)
to €29m after a very strong Q3 2023.
As a reminder, 2023 had reached a record due to
a high level of margin-accretive bitumen trading activity in a
context of high shipping rates.
In 2024, the opportunities for bitumen trading
in North America were limited, decreasing the overall level of
margins and the utilisation of bitumen vessels. The Group is
adjusting its approach by offering trading in the Eastern part of
the Atlantic.
On the other hand, the strong momentum observed
in the fuel and LPG trading activity in the Caribbean over the
first half continued in Q3 with +43% in volume and +39% gross
margin over the quarter, benefiting from the two vessels acquired
in 2023.
The SARA refinery and logistics operations
present specific business models with stable earnings profile.
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY
PRODUCTION
The level of assets in operation increased by
22% yoy, reaching 513 MWp at end-Sept 2024. The secured portfolio
surpassed 1 GWp. Regarding the pipeline, the project in Creil
(approx. 200 MWp) commenced construction during the quarter.
Additionally, the early-stage bucket was bolstered by 0.9 GWp of
new projects over the quarter. Revenue for Q3 2024 amounted to
€17m, representing a 6% yoy increase.
|
Operational data |
Q3 2024 |
Q3 2023 |
Var % |
|
Assets in operation (MWp) |
513 |
421 |
22% |
|
Electricity production (GWh) |
166 |
167 |
-1% |
|
Sales (in €m) |
17 |
16 |
+6% |
OUTLOOK
As exposed on 31 October 2024, following:
- the recent
escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and consequent strong
fluctuations in oil prices impacting fuel distribution margins in
the short term;
- the delayed
adjustment in the pricing formula for retail distribution in
Kenya;
- lower bitumen
trading activity;
- partially offset by
improved financial result and Rubis Terminal disposal capital
gain;
Rubis has revised its 2024 financial guidance as
follows:
-
EBITDA: €[675-725]m from €[725-775]m;
- Net income
Group share (including a €83m net capital gain from Rubis
Terminal disposal): €[340-375]m from “stable” vs €354m in FY
2023;
-
Dividend per share: unchanged i.e.,
growing vs 2023, in addition to the €0.75 interim dividend related
to Rubis Terminal divestment.
NON-FINANCIAL RATING
- MSCI: AA
(reiterated in Dec-23)
- Sustainalytics:
30.7 (from 29.7 previously)
- ISS ESG: C (from C-
previously)
- CDP: B (reiterated
in Feb-24)
Conference for investors and
analysts
Date: 5 November 2024, 6:00pm
To access via the audio webcast:
https://channel.royalcast.com/rubisen/#!/rubisen/20241105_1
To access via the conference
call:
- France: +33 (0)1 70 37 71
66
- UK-International: +44 (0) 33
0551 0200
- US: +1 786 697 3501
- Then verbally tell the operator
the code « Rubis »
Participants from Rubis:
- Marc Jacquot, CFO
- Clémence Mignot-Dupeyrot, Head
of IR
Upcoming events
FY 2024 results: 13 March 2025 (after market
close)
|
Press Contact |
Analyst Contact |
|
RUBIS - Communication department |
RUBIS - Clémence Mignot-Dupeyrot, Head of IR |
Tel: +33 (0)1 44 17 95 95
presse@rubis.fr |
Tel: +33 (0)1 45 01 87 44
investors@rubis.fr |
appendix
1. SALES
REVENUE BREAKDOWN
|
Revenue (in €m) |
Q3 2024 |
Q3 2023 |
Q3 2024 vs
Q3 2023 |
|
Energy distribution |
1,613 |
1,580 |
+2% |
|
Retail & Marketing |
1,356 |
1,329 |
+2% |
|
Europe |
208 |
192 |
+8% |
|
Caribbean |
541 |
595 |
-9% |
|
Africa |
607 |
542 |
+12% |
|
Support & Services |
258 |
251 |
+2% |
|
Renewable Electricity production |
17 |
16 |
+6% |
|
TOTAL |
1,630 |
1,596 |
+2% |
REVENUE BREAKDOWN
|
Revenue (in €m) |
9M 2024 |
9M 2023 |
9M 2024 vs
9M 2023 |
|
Energy distribution |
4,929 |
4,880 |
+1% |
|
Retail & Marketing |
4,184 |
4,103 |
+2% |
|
Europe |
612 |
602 |
+2% |
|
Caribbean |
1,755 |
1,733 |
+1% |
|
Africa |
1,817 |
1,767 |
+3% |
|
Support & Services |
744 |
777 |
-4% |
|
Renewable Electricity production |
41 |
41 |
+1% |
|
TOTAL |
4,969 |
4,920 |
+1% |
2. 9M FIGURES
RETAIL & MARKETING: VOLUME SOLD AND GROSS
MARGIN BY PRODUCT IN 9M
| |
Volume (in '000
m3) |
Gross margin (in €m) |
Adjusted1
Gross margin (in €m) |
|
|
9M 2024 |
9M 2023 |
9M 2024 vs 9M 2023 |
9M 2024 |
9M 2023 |
9M 2024 vs 9M 2023 |
9M 2024 |
9M 2023 |
9M 2024 vs 9M 2023 |
|
LPG |
964 |
952 |
1% |
228 |
227 |
0% |
228 |
227 |
0% |
|
Fuel |
3,196 |
3,006 |
6% |
321 |
337 |
-5% |
321 |
326 |
-2% |
|
Bitumen |
307 |
306 |
1% |
57 |
74 |
-23% |
57 |
49 |
16% |
|
TOTAL |
4,467 |
4,263 |
5% |
605 |
639 |
-5% |
605 |
602 |
0% |
(1) Adjusted for
exceptional items and FX effects.
RETAIL & MARKETING: VOLUME SOLD AND GROSS
MARGIN BY REGION IN 9M
| |
Volume (in '000
m3) |
Gross margin (in €m) |
Adjusted1
Gross margin (in €m) |
|
|
9M 2024 |
9M 2023 |
9M 2024 vs 9M 2023 |
9M 2024 |
9M 2023 |
9M 2024 vs 9M 2023 |
9M 2024 |
9M 2023 |
9M 2024 vs 9M 2023 |
|
Europe |
683 |
649 |
5% |
162 |
156 |
4% |
162 |
156 |
4% |
|
Caribbean |
1,699 |
1,651 |
3% |
245 |
224 |
9% |
245 |
224 |
9% |
|
Africa |
2,085 |
1,963 |
6% |
199 |
259 |
-23% |
199 |
223 |
-11% |
|
TOTAL |
4,467 |
4,263 |
5% |
605 |
639 |
-5% |
605 |
602 |
0% |
(1) Adjusted for
exceptional items and FX effects.
- RUBIS: Q3 & 9M 2024 Trading Update
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