AlphaFund
10 months ago
Today Oct 6 2023, the market will be FLAT, possibly slightly UP, in fact Thursday's daily LOW High Close are same as Wednesday's.
Yesterday the market was in the UP trend at 10am EST, when the ECB president started to speech, market responded downward. However, as model predicted, the market was still solid and rebounded to Par by end of the day.
Trading suggestion: keep current position, either cash or equity, slightly in favor or equity.
The high interest rate will in general dragged down the market a few percents within a few days following the news releasing.
AlphaFund
10 months ago
Oct 5 2023: there was no interest rate shock for yesterday, the market opened at FLAT, moved down a bit then started to rebound, ending 0.86% UP, which is inline with my prediction.
Today, if there is no surprised news on interest rate, the market will keep moving up, but in a moderate percentage, market will be between FLAT to 0.6% UP. Moderate Positive.
Trading suggestion: keep holding the long Index position but not buying any option.
AlphaFund
10 months ago
Oct 5 2023: there was no interest rate shock for yesterday, the market opened at FLAT, moved down a bit then started to rebound, ending 0.86% UP, which is inline with my prediction.
Today, if there is no surprised news on interest rate, the market will keep moving up, but in a moderate percentage, market will be between FLAT to 0.6% UP. Moderate Positive.
Trading suggestion: keep holding the long Index position but not buying any option.
AlphaFund
10 months ago
Oct3 2023, Yesterday the market followed the prediction and moved to 2015 by 10 am EST, but the rate high news around 10am hit the market badly, and whole market went south for a big sell off of 1.59% after the Macroeconomic news on rate. The 1.5% intraday movement can be foreseeable if the model uses intraday signals.
Today market will open low, but may close FLAT, aside of the higher rate, there is no clear early sign for the market to drop dramatically today. The worry is not yet confirmed to last longer and it is not yet a solid sign for a 5-10% drop in one week. So it is advised to keep cash and wait for market to rebound.
AlphaFund
10 months ago
Oct 3rd, 2023: Yesterday the market moved up 0.45% on Monday Oct 2nd, from 2009.73 to 2018.85, which is right within the prediction range of 0.5% from Friday close at 2010 for S&P 100.
Today prediction: The market will be closed at FLAT to slight up, the prediction range will be 0% to 0.6%, namely 2011 to 2031 for S&P 100 index.
AlphaFund
10 months ago
Sept 22 2023, AlphaFund prediction: Market will go down but the drawdown should be limited, smaller than the -1.58% down on Sept 21. During the morning hours of Sept 20 trading session, the market moved in a pattern almost same as the prediction made earlier on the day, however at 2pm there market began to dig due to the FED's high rate decision which was not well anticipated.
On Sept 21 the market opened slightly lower than Sept 20, and remined till 230pm, followed by another 1% further drop.
So the prediction is valid till 2pm if there is market sentiment change in the afternoon session. For today, Friday is worthy to be more cautious.
AlphaFund
10 months ago
Market had a down turn at 2pm EST Sept 20 2023. My prediction is very accurate for the day till 2pm. The FED rate hike was confirmed by 2pm in afternoon, and a few Tech names moved south particular, but this news may not extend for Sept 21 trading session, since it is well accepted and expected, Today prediction remains, cautious but no big drop for today and I did not see big drop for NEXT TWO days till this Friday.
AlphaFund
10 months ago
Sept 20 2023, Market opens slightly higher, and maintained the level of Close at Sept 19 (2088) till 2pm in the afternoon, then found the new direction for south, down 1.2% or 24 points as close.
View: market is slightly on bearish, but there is no early sign for big drop.
Suggestion: Keep cash, but do not short US market.
As pointed out earlier this week, TSLA dropped.
This is by intraday data near End of the Day Sept 20, and will update once the close data is available for Sept 20 2023.
AlphaFund
10 months ago
Sept 20 2023, Market opens slightly higher, and maintained the level of Close at Sept 19 (2088) till 2pm in the afternoon, then found the new direction for south, down 1.2% or 24 points as close.
View: market is slightly on bearish, but there is no early sign for big drop.
Suggestion: Keep cash, but do not short US market.
As pointed out earlier this week, TSLA dropped.