Diabetes Population to Double, Diabetes Costs to Nearly Triple, in 25 Years, New Study Shows
November 27 2009 - 12:01AM
PR Newswire (US)
Findings Underscore Urgent Need to Reform CBO Scoring of Preventive
Care PRINCETON, N.J., Nov. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- The diabetes
population in the United States will almost double over the next 25
years and annual medical spending on the disease is projected to
hit $336 billion, up from $113 billion today, according to a study
published in the December issue of Diabetes Care. The National
Changing Diabetes® Program (NCDP), a program of Novo Nordisk,
commissioned the analysis by a team from the University of Chicago.
According to the forecast, the number of Americans living with
diabetes will rise from 23.7 million in 2009 to 44.1 million in
2034. For the Medicare program, the increases over the next 25
years are even more dramatic: the number of Americans living with
diabetes and covered by Medicare will rise from 6.5 million to 14.1
million, and Medicare spending on diabetes will almost quadruple,
skyrocketing from $45 billion this year to $171 billion in 2034.
Based on this projection, "Medicare spending alone will represent
just over 50% of direct spending on diabetes in 2034," the authors
concluded. Unlike past efforts to predict trends in diabetes, the
model developed by the University of Chicago team considers the
natural progression of the disease, effects of treatment and
obesity rates in the United States, which are "factors that are
currently not used by government budget analysts," according to the
authors. "Obesity is a significant driver of future increases in
the number of Americans with diabetes," said Michael O'Grady,
Ph.D., one of the study authors and a senior fellow at the National
Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. "While our
modeling, as well as that done by the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, project obesity rates leveling off, neither model
has obesity rates lowering substantially. High obesity rates among
the American population over an extended period of time
substantially increases the probability of developing type 2
diabetes." This forecasting model, which the authors contend
improves the rigor of the estimates of health care spending for
diabetes, was designed to inform policymakers as they explore ways
to control spiraling health care costs. Currently, official
government estimates of the potential costs and cost offsets
associated with proposed preventive health legislation do not
consider savings that may occur more than 10 years out, thus
providing an incomplete view of preventive health measures as an
investment. "The size of the current diabetes population exceeds
many prior forecasts and we expect that the future growth of
population and its associated costs will be explosive. Finding ways
to reduce the number of people who develop diabetes is both a
national public health priority and a fiscal imperative," said Dr.
Elbert Huang, the lead author of the paper and an assistant
professor of medicine in the Department of Medicine at the
University of Chicago. "The best way to stem the dramatic rise in
diabetes is to implement proven preventive care programs on a
national level. This will require that policymakers understand that
diabetes prevention is a long-term investment that will only reap
benefits over decades, not years." The Congressional Budget Office
(CBO), which assesses the cost of proposed legislation, does not
typically consider any cost savings beyond 10 years. Because
diabetes develops over a long period of time, with the highest
costs coming later in life of the disease, savings are far more
apparent at 25 years than at 10 years. For this reason,
policymakers need a long-term analysis of costs in order to make
accurate decisions that reflect the true impact of prevention
programs. "Managing diabetes means preventing the pain and expense
of diabetes complications, including heart disease, amputation,
kidney disease, and blindness," said Michael Mawby, Chief
Government Affairs Officer and director of the NCDP, a diabetes
leadership initiative established by Novo Nordisk to drive health
systems change at the national and local level, which funded the
research. "Therefore, it is critical that lawmakers see the
long-term projections of the impact of diabetes interventions."
Legislation introduced earlier this year is designed to lead to a
more accurate assessment of the costs and benefits of preventive
health, including preventing complications and delaying progression
of chronic diseases such as diabetes. The bipartisan Preventive
Health Savings Act of 2009 (HR 3148), calls on the CBO to weigh
clinical or observational studies when modeling projected costs and
savings related to preventive health, and in certain circumstances,
to look beyond the traditional 10-year budget window. About the
National Changing Diabetes® Program The National Changing Diabetes®
Program (NCDP) is a multi-faceted initiative that brings together
leaders in diabetes and policy to improve the lives of people with
diabetes. NCDP strives to create change in the U.S. health care
system to provide dramatic improvement in the prevention and care
of diabetes. Launched in 2005, NCDP is a program of Novo Nordisk.
For more information, please visit http://www.ncdp.com/. About Novo
Nordisk Novo Nordisk is a healthcare company with an 86-year
history of innovation and achievement in diabetes care. The company
has the broadest diabetes product portfolio in the industry,
including the most advanced products within the area of insulin
delivery systems. In addition to diabetes care, Novo Nordisk has a
leading position within areas such as hemostasis management, growth
hormone therapy, and hormone therapy for women. Novo Nordisk's
business is driven by the Triple Bottom Line: a commitment to
social responsibility to employees and customers, environmental
soundness and economic success. With headquarters in Denmark, Novo
Nordisk employs more than 27,550 employees in 81 countries, and
markets its products in 179 countries. Novo Nordisk's B shares are
listed on the stock exchanges in Copenhagen and London. Its ADRs
are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol 'NVO'.
For global information, visit novonordisk.com; for United States
information, visit novonordisk-us.com. DATASOURCE: National
Changing Diabetes Program CONTACT: Sean Clements of Novo Nordisk,
+1-609-514-8400, ; or Susan Bro, +1-615-440-2799, or Tony Plohoros,
+1-908-940-0135, , both of Media Mind Web Site:
http://www.ncdp.com/
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