BofA data suggests Baby Boomers are relocating
to Las Vegas and Tampa while Millennials prefer Austin. Both groups are leaving the larger
cities of San Francisco and
New York.
NEW
YORK, June 5, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Bank of
America Institute released a new analysis today that found net
flows of domestic migration (people moving within the United States) continue to follow pandemic
trends. BofA internal data, which leads the Census Bureau
population data by almost a year, found that as of 1Q 2023, cities
that saw a large influx of people during the pandemic are still
growing faster than other cities in recent quarters, but housing
prices are weakening even in cities with growing populations.

Among the major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs),
Austin saw the largest net inflow
of population both during 2020-2021 with +5% and over the past four
quarters with +1.5%. Also high on the list are Tampa and Orlando, both with a net increase of +0.8%
between 1Q 2022 and 1Q 2023. Interestingly, while Phoenix and Las
Vegas saw strong increases in population during the first
two years of the pandemic, the pace of growth has slowed noticeably
in recent quarters, up just 0.3% and 0.2% year-over-year (YoY),
respectively, in 1Q 2023.
Alternatively, cities such as San
Jose, San Francisco and
New York saw the biggest outflow
of people during the early years of the pandemic and the rate of
decline in 2023 continues to be the highest among major MSAs.
While large population inflows usually increase both home and
rental prices, data from Freddie Mac shows that even in cities with
growing populations, including Austin, home prices are slowing rapidly.
In contrast, rental prices remain strong in cities with positive
inflow of residents. In April 2023,
median rent payments for BofA customers in Austin, Orlando and Tampa were up 11%, 14% and 14% YoY,
respectively. This compares to the national average of 8% and just
3% for San Francisco.
"Domestic migration continues to be a key theme shaping the
housing market," said Anna Zhou,
economist for Bank of America Institute. "While rising interest
rates are dampening home-buying demand in the near term, the
housing market in cities where Millennial and Baby Boomers are
moving could see strength in the longer term as the former enter
prime home-buying age and the latter downsize their houses."
Read the full analysis and methodology here.
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SOURCE Bank of America Corporation