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Alphabet to report double-digit Q2 growth; AI adoption, ballooning costs in focus
By: Reuters | July 22, 2024
Google-parent Alphabet is expected to report a nearly 14% rise in quarterly revenue, its fourth straight quarter of double-digit growth, driven by steady demand for its artificial intelligence-powered cloud computing services and an uptick in the ad market.
The search giant's second-quarter report on Tuesday, the first among the Big Technology companies this season, could offer further insight into the uptake of AI services, as well as the rising costs associated with the new technology.
At a developer conference in May, Google widely rolled out AI-powered summaries in Search and beefed up its Gemini AI model to better compete with services from OpenAI and Microsoft.
Google is also launching new Pixel devices with AI capabilities next month, moving forward its unveiling event, typically set in fall, after Apple announced in June a slew of AI capabilities and an integration with ChatGPT in the latest iPhones.
"Investors will be looking for continued success in Search, but also for signs of the company adapting to the new world of AI," said Gil Luria, senior software analyst at D.A. Davidson & Co.
"The company will need to show that AI is driving Google Cloud growth, that there are no share losses in Search as users start leaning more on AI chat, and that the new models being built are competitive."
Alphabet's AI investments will also be closely watched. In the January-March period, the company's capital expenditure jumped 91% to $12 billion, rattling some investors even though CEO Sundar Pichai assured that the AI integrations were boosting demand for its cloud and search businesses.
The company's operating expenses in the second quarter ended June likely rose more than 32% to $27.57 billion, according to LSEG data, the highest jump in over two years.
Investors will also have questions around reports that Alphabet is in talks to buy cybersecurity startup Wiz for roughly $23 billion and how that would affect its bottomline.
Alphabet's core businesses are likely to report healthy growth as an improving macro-economic climate gives customers the confidence to invest in cloud computing and spend on advertising.
"Google search spending still held up fairly well ... we think advertisers need to spend as a key offset to inflation," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Brad Erickson.
Media investment firm GroupM raised its 2024 global advertising growth forecast to 7.8% in June, from 5.3% in December, primarily on account of better-than-expected spending in China and the United States.
Analysts also expect strong performance at YouTube, thanks in part to expanded monetization features in its TikTok-styled video offering, Shorts.
Alphabet's second-quarter cloud computing sales and advertising revenue are expected to grow 26.4% and 10.8%, respectively, according to LSEG data, largely similar to the preceding two quarters.
Ad-dependent peer Meta Platforms will report its results next week on Wednesday, July 31.
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1 week ago
Google Nears $23 Billion Deal to Acquire Cybersecurity Firm Wiz: WSJ
By: Barron's | July 14, 2024
Alphabet GOOGL -0.27%’s Google is nearing a $23 billion deal for the cybersecurity firm Wiz in what could be the search giant’s largest acquisition ever, The Wall Street Journal reported.
A deal could come together “soon,” the report said, citing people familiar with the talks. Representatives for Alphabet and the Wiz didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from Barron’s.
The acquisition would come amid heightened scrutiny in Washington of competition in the technology industry.
Wiz would add to Alphabet’s efforts in cloud computing. In May, the start-up said it raised $1 billion at a valuation of $12 billion in a funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz, Lightspeed Venture Partners, and Thrive Capital.
Wiz CEO Assaf Rappaport said then that “2024 is the year of consolidation—for Wiz, and the industry at large.” Money from the funding raise would be used in part for acquisitions, the company said in May. Wiz recently acquired Gem Security, a cloud detection and response firm.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s in an email that a deal would be a smart strategic move for Google, “and a shot across the bow against Microsoft MSFT -0.25% and Amazon AMZN -0.29%.”
Google has been trying to catch up in the cloud computing space with Amazon and Microsoft. Two years ago, Google bought another security firm Mandiant for $5.4 billion.
But the company also faces antitrust scrutiny from regulators, especially in its search business. It is awaiting the outcome of a Justice Department lawsuit over the methods it used to boost its internet search business, and it also faces claims of unfair practices in its ad-tech business.
While the Biden administration’s Federal Trade Commission has been forcefully going after anticompetitive practices in the tech industry, a change of administration to a Republican president could shift things, Ives said.
Should former President Donald Trump win the election in the fall and return to the White House, “we would expect a very weak FTC and tech deals to accelerate,” Ives said.
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3 weeks ago
2 Outperforming Big Tech Stocks to Buy This Quarter
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | July 3, 2024
• Apple and Alphabet tend to outperform in the third quarter
• Plus, 23 other stocks that could deliver big gains
Big Tech stocks have had a stranglehold on the stock market so far in 2024, and this summer could be no different. Two stocks in particular, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:GOOGL), are poised to extend their ascents.
Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, AAPL and GOOGL made the list of 25 best-performing S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks to own this quarter, historically, in the past 10 years. Apple boasts an average quarterly return of 7.6%, with an 80% win rate, while the Google parent is higher 6.8% of the time and has finished the quarter higher nine times in the last decade.
Apple stock was last seen trading at $219.55, just below yesterday's record close of $220.38. The shares are 14.3% higher so far in 2024, with support stepping up at their 20-day moving average before a 6% post-earnings bull gap in early May. On the chart below, note the bullish flag pattern that preceded yesterday's 1.6% gain.
GOOGL is trading at $185.24 at last check, a chip shot from its June 27 record high of $186.05. Compared to AAPL, Alphabet shares are up a much more robust 32.1% this year, and also sport a 53.57% year-over-year lead amid a channel of higher highs.
Both equities sport attractively priced premiums at the moment, per their respective Schaeffer's Volatility Indexes (SVI) that sit in the bottom 25th percentile of their annual ranges. Where they differ is that AAPL's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at 79 out of 100, suggesting the security has tended to exceed options traders' volatility expectations during the past year. GOOGL's SVS, meanwhile, sits at 7, making the equity an intriguing premium-selling candidate.
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3 weeks ago
Where Will Alphabet Stock Be in 3 Years?
By: The Motley Fool | July 1, 2024
Share prices of Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) have outperformed the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index over the past three years, delivering gains of 51% as compared to the 26% gains clocked by the index. However, investors might expect more from the search engine leader thanks to the emergence of new catalysts.
Let's take a closer look at what's likely to supercharge Alphabet's growth over the next three years and see if it can help the stock deliver stronger gains.
Alphabet is growing at a faster pace this year
Alphabet finished 2023 with revenue of $307.4 billion, an increase of just 10% from the previous year. Revenue had a compound annual growth rate of 19% between 2020 (when it reported $182.5 billion) and 2023. Its growth dipped last year because of a slowdown in the digital advertising market.
While several rivals reported AI breakthroughs, the setbacks Alphabet encountered in trying to jump onto the artificial intelligence (AI) bandwagon also contributed to Alphabet's performance drop. For instance, Meta Platforms delivered impressive growth last year and cornered more share of the digital ad market by integrating AI tools into its advertising and social media platforms.
The good news for Alphabet investors is that it has started 2024 on a brighter note. Revenue in the first quarter of the year increased 16% year over year to $80.5 billion. Net income also increased 61% to $1.89 per share.
AI seems to be playing an important role, with Alphabet offering improved AI tools to advertisers to help drive better returns on their investments. For instance, the company has integrated its Gemini AI model into its Performance Max (PMax) ad campaigns, and this seems to be driving advertisers' returns. On its April earnings conference call, management said that advertisers using PMax asset generation are 63% more likely to publish a campaign with good or excellent ad strength.
Management also said that advertisers using generative AI to create ad components such as headlines and product descriptions saw a 5% improvement in conversions without any increase in costs. The company's focus on bringing AI to its ad tools could pay off big time since advertisers are expected to spend $107 billion on AI-based marketing in 2028 as compared to $15 billion in 2021.
AI is also giving Alphabet's Google Cloud a lift. Cloud revenue increased 28% year over year in the first quarter to $9.6 billion, with cloud-based AI services gaining impressive adoption among customers.
Alphabet says that it has added over 1,000 new products and features to Google Cloud in recent months, and this seems to have helped it gain ground. The company's share of the cloud computing market increased by a single percentage point in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis to reach 10%.
That might not sound like a huge improvement, but Google Cloud is the third-largest cloud infrastructure provider behind the likes of Microsoft and Amazon, which together control 56% of this market. So if Google manages to claw away share from its rivals, its cloud revenue could keep improving in the long run.
The market for cloud-based AI services is expected to generate $274 billion in annual revenue in 2029 as compared to $67 billion this year, according to Mordor Intelligence. And Alphabet has a couple of solid catalysts with its AI-powered advertising and cloud computing that could help its growth accelerate.
Healthy growth seems to be in the cards for the next three years
Alphabet finished 2023 with earnings of $5.80 per share. The following chart tells us that its bottom line could increase by 30% in 2024, which would be an acceleration over the 27% growth it recorded last year.
Analysts have increased their outlook for Alphabet for the next couple of years as well. A look at the chart above shows Alphabet's 2026 earnings growth is expected to be healthier than its projected rate for 2025. And Alphabet could end up beating the projections thanks to the catalysts discussed. But even if Alphabet's earnings increase to $9.82 per share and the company maintains its current price-to-earnings ratio of 28 at that time, its stock price could jump to $275. That would represent 49% growth from current levels.
The earnings multiple used here is a conservative one; the U.S. technology sector has an earnings multiple of 47, and tech stocks whose growth is being fueled by AI tend to command richer multiples.
So if Wall Street decides to reward Alphabet stock with a richer multiple, there is a good chance that it could deliver stronger gains over the next three years than what's estimated above. That's why investors looking to buy an AI stock that's trading at a relatively attractive valuation should consider taking a closer look at Alphabet.
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3 weeks ago
Alphabet (GOOGL) key technical moments
By: David Keller | June 28, 2024
In Alphabet, we see a stock very clearly in a primary uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. Can GOOGL sustain the strong bull phase from Q2 into Q3? With this sort of technical configuration, I'm watching the pullbacks to see if GOOGL can keep making higher lows. My mentor Ralph Acampora would remind me to focus on higher lows in an uptrend, because, as long as the lows keep getting higher, the uptrend appears to be in good shape.
I'm also watching the RSI, which has been above 50 since mid-March. Strong charts have strong momentum, and RSI remaining above 50 would tell me that Alphabet is still in a position of strength among the largest US stocks.
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2 months ago
Google Accelerates AI Innovation: JPMorgan Bullish On Alphabet As Apple-Microsoft Rivalry Intensifies
By: Benzinga | June 6, 2024
Alphabet Inc. GOOG GOOGL is on the offensive, rapidly advancing its AI capabilities despite market noise and competitive pressures.
Following impressive showcases at Google I/O and Google Marketing Live (GML), the company is pushing boundaries in generative AI, aiming to reshape search and advertising.
The Google Analyst
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth reiterates an Overweight rating on Alphabet, with a price target of $200 by December 2024. Anmuth highlights Google’s aggressive pace in AI innovation, which he believes will overshadow short-term setbacks.
“The company is on the offensive in Gen AI, w/a faster pace of innovation as AI Overviews in Search expand to general users & advertisers,” Anmuth said.
The Google Thesis
Market Position and AI Innovation
Anmuth notes that Google's AI Overviews in Search are now expanding to general users and advertisers. This is driving higher satisfaction and more complex queries.
Early inaccuracies are being addressed with technical improvements, ensuring that Google’s AI remains a powerful tool for enhancing search results and driving quality traffic.
AI Partnerships and Competitive Landscape
“In terms of WWDC, the growing likelihood of an Apple Inc AAPL –OpenAI partnership around GenAI is a concern for investors,” Anmuth said. This could potentially position OpenAI (and Microsoft Corp MSFT ahead in the AI race.
However, Anmuth suggests Apple might still consider partnering with Google for its Gemini project, given their established relationship.
Google I/O & GML – Key Highlights
The following are some key announcements that impressed JPMorgan the most, from the “100+ announcements” at the I/O and GML events:
• Gemini Integration: AI Overviews in Search to reach over 1 billion users by year-end, with enhancements like Project Astra and Gemini Advanced promising significant improvements.
• Multimodal Interactions: Expansion of Gemini's capabilities, including the lightweight Gemini Nano, making AI more versatile and efficient.
• LLM Advancements: Introduction of new models like Gemini 1.5 Flash, Veo (video generation), and Imagen 3 (image generation), highlighting a diverse AI strategy.
• Google Cloud TPU: The new Trillium TPU showcases a leap in performance and energy efficiency, reducing latency and costs for AI products.
Monetization AI Advancements
Google's testing of Search and Shopping ads in AI Overviews marks a strategic move to monetize AI advancements.
The appointment of Anat Ashkenazi as CFO, succeeding Ruth Porat, brings a fresh perspective and strategic focus to Alphabet's financial leadership.
Despite competitive pressures and early AI rollout challenges, Anmuth expresses confidence in Google’s strategic direction and accelerated innovation.
The reiterated Overweight rating and $200 price target reflect a bullish outlook on Google's diversified AI monetization path through Search, Cloud, and other 2B+ user products.
As Google refines its AI capabilities and expands its market presence, the future looks promising for the tech giant and its stakeholders.
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2 months ago
Google Set to Make Its Largest Acquisition Ever, Threatening Microsoft
By: Quartz | May 24, 2024
• Google's purchase of HubSpot is in line with its goal to 'take market share from Microsoft,' according to one analyst
Google parent Alphabet is reportedly making headway in its bid to acquire the $30 billion marketing software company HubSpot. That deal, which would be Google’s largest-ever acquisition, is part of the company’s strategy to compete with Microsoft in the cloud applications market.
“It does appear that Google has aspirations to try to take market share from Microsoft in the productivity suite, and they can use HubSpot to bundle applications together for clients,” Cowen analyst Derrick Wood said in a research note seen by Reuters.
Google is the third-largest cloud services provider but holds less than half of the market share of Microsoft. Meanwhile, Amazon controls a third of the market.
Reports of Google’s potential acquisition first surfaced in April, sending HubSpot shares up as much as 11%. HubSpot’s financials keep getting better, though analysts are skeptical over weakened demand for its products. The company swung to a profit of $6 million in the first quarter, with sales surging more than 20% from the prior year. Google’s talks with HubSpot are “ongoing” and no deal has been reached, according to Bloomberg.
While Google’s still behind in the cloud market, it’s on a much more even playing field with Microsoft in the AI space, where it’s vying with a number of Big Tech contenders for dominance — with convincing odds. Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have all announced major new AI applications and features over the past year as well as their own custom AI chips. But Google dropped a motherload of updates to its suite of AI tools called Gemini during its I/O developer conference, solidifying its spot as a major AI player. A week later, Microsoft made its own AI announcements, but they’re now facing heat from European regulators.
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2 months ago
Google launches Trillium chip, improving AI data center performance fivefold
By: Reuters | May 14, 2024
Google parent Alphabet on Tuesday unveiled a product called Trillium in its artificial intelligence data center chip family that it says is nearly five times as fast as its prior version.
"Industry demand for (machine learning) computer has grown by a factor of 1 million in the last six years, roughly increasing 10-fold every year," Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said in a briefing call with reporters. "I think Google was built for this moment, we've been pioneering (AI chips) for more than a decade."
Alphabet's effort to build custom chips for AI data centers represents one of the few viable alternatives to Nvidia's top-of-the-line processors that dominate the market. Together with the software that is closely tied to Google's tensor processing units (TPUs), the chips have allowed the company to take a significant share of the market.
Nvidia commands roughly 80% of the AI data center chip market, and the vast majority of the remaining 20% is various versions of Google's TPUs. The company doesn't sell the chip itself, but rents access through its cloud computing platform.
The sixth-generation Trillium chip will achieve 4.7 times better computing performance compared with the TPU v5e, according to Google, a chip designed to power the tech that generates text and other media from large models. The Trillium processor is 67% more energy efficient than the v5e.
The new chip will be available to its cloud customers in "late 2024," the company said.
Google's engineers achieved additional performance gains by increasing the amount of high-bandwidth memory capacity and overall bandwidth. AI models require enormous amounts of advanced memory, which has been a bottleneck to further boosting performance.
The company designed the chips to be deployed in pods of 256 chips that can be scaled to hundreds of pods.
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3 months ago
Bull of the Day: Alphabet (GOOGL)
By: Zacks Investment Research | May 1, 2024
Following Alphabet’s (GOOGL) blowout first quarter results last week, and the announcement of its first-ever dividend, now appears to be a promising time to invest in the Magnificent Seven titan.
To that point, Alphabet’s stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and is the Bull of the Day as earnings estimate revisions have soared for the cloud and search engine provider.
Strong Performance Overview: Alphabet’s strong Q1 results were attributed to Google Search, Cloud, and stronger advertising growth on YouTube. Alphabet also emphasized that it is well-positioned for the next wave of artificial intelligence through its platform Gemini which is a generative AI multimodal with understanding across audio, video, and text code.
This has now led to a +17% year-to-date surge in Alphabet’s stock which has impressively topped the S&P 500’s +8% and the Nasdaq’s +4%. Furthermore, GOOGL has noticeably outperformed the broader indexes over the last year.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Soaring EPS Estimates
Earnings estimates for Alphabet’s fiscal 2024 and FY25 have soared in the last week after the tech giant reported Q1 earnings of $1.89 per share which increased 61% year over year and crushed the Zacks Consensus of $1.49 a share by 27%.
Largely attributing to Alphabet’s strong buy rating is that FY24 earnings estimate revisions have risen 10% since the company’s exhilarating Q1 report from estimates of $6.79 a share to $7.49 per share. Plus, FY25 EPS estimates are up 10% in that last week as well, rising from projections of $7.78 a share to $8.61 per share.
Alphabet’s annual earnings are now projected to rise 29% this year with another 15% EPS growth expected in FY25.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Magnificent Seven Value
Adding value to shareholders and peaking their optimism, Alphabet announced a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share with the first payout set for June 17 to shareholders on record as of June 10. Notably, five of the Magnificent Seven stocks now offer dividends with Alphabet joining Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Meta Platforms (META) in this regard.
However, what also stands out about Alphabet is that outside of Meta Platforms, it is the most reasonably valued of the Mag Seven in terms of P/E valuation at 24.3X forward earnings and close to the S&P 500’s 21.5X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
Alphabet continues to rightfully retain its title as a “Magnificent Seven” stock that has significantly boosted the market’s returns in recent years and is one the most appealing technology-driven companies to invest in at the moment.
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3 months ago
Big Money Seeking Out Alphabet Shares
By: Lucas Downey | April 30, 2024
• Shares of Google parent company Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) are up 19% in 2024 so far. A recent dividend announcement, solid earnings, and Big Money investors are pushing the technology company’s stock higher.
Alphabet Shares Under Big Accumulation
Institutional volumes reveal plenty. In the last year, GOOGL has enjoyed strong investor demand, which we believe to be institutional support.
Each green bar signals unusually large volumes in GOOGL shares. They reflect our proprietary inflow signal, pushing the stock higher:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Plenty of technology names are under accumulation right now. But there’s a powerful fundamental backdrop going on with Alphabet.
Alphabet Fundamental Analysis
Institutional support and a healthy fundamental backdrop make this company worth investigating. As you can see, GOOGL has had impressive sales and EPS growth in recent years:
• 3-year sales growth rate (+19.9%)
• 3-year EPS growth rate (+33.5%)
Source: FactSet
EPS is estimated to ramp higher this year by +14.5%.
Now it makes sense why the stock has been powering to new heights. GOOGL has a yearslong track record of solid earnings.
Marrying great fundamentals with our proprietary software has found some big winning stocks over the long term.
Alphabet has been a top-rated stock at MAPsignals. That means the stock has unusual buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
It’s made the rare Top 20 report multiple times over the years. The blue bars below show when GOOGL was a top pick…pushing higher over time:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Tracking unusual volumes reveals the power of money flows.
This is a trait that most outlier stocks exhibit…the best of the best. It’s simple – Big Money demand drives stocks upward.
Alphabet Price Prediction
The GOOGL rally isn’t new at all. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.
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