Cosa
5 months ago
If they do sell VOWST and strike a deal for SER-155, that would be more bullish.
This is from SER-109 article in 2021 but changed it to SER-155 for entertainment purposes.
Under the terms of the agreement, Nestlé Health Science will utilize its global pharmaceutical business Aimmune Therapeutics and will assume the role of lead commercialization party. Seres will receive license payments of $175 million up front, and an additional $125 million upon FDA approval of SER-155. The agreement also includes sales target milestones which, if achieved, could total up to $225 million. Seres will be responsible for development and pre-commercialization costs in the U.S. Upon commercialization, Seres will be entitled to an amount equal to 50% of the commercial profits.
Original Article:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210701005405/en/Seres-Therapeutics-Nestl%C3%A9-Health-Science-Announce-SER-109-Co-Commercialization-License-Agreement
Cosa
5 months ago
Not sure if shareholders would vote in favor of $230M. Maybe up to $300M
If you read this from the article below. And based on their last ER. They have about $102M in liabilities. They have cash of about $125M, which is expected to be runway to Q4 2024.
With capital expected from transaction they will pay off $102M and have a cash runway to Q4 2025. They are going to sell the remaining 50% rights for about $230M. This would pay off debt and leave them with $250M cash runway. Assuming that $125M was our runway to Q4 this year and another $125M is for the year 2025. Probably have a milestone payment in there also.
Clip from article below.
Seres expects to use the capital from this transaction to fully retire its senior secured debt facility with Oaktree Capital Management, and support the further advancement of SER-155 and its other cultivated microbiome product candidates. Based on Seres' current cash, its future operating plans, and the capital expected to be obtained from the transaction, the Company anticipates being able to extend its cash runway into Q4 2025, subject to performance under the transition services agreement.
Source:
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/seres-therapeutics-MCRB/stock-news/93996839/seres-therapeutics-enters-into-memorandum-of-under
All just made up numbers for entertainment purposes.
Cosa
5 months ago
This is bad news. Seres will be going backwards to a clinical stage company. The only long term benefit will be whatever Royalty deal they can secure for VOWST. With the deal they currently have in place Nestle already has 50% of the rights. They have already paid $175M upfront and another $125M after the approval. So currently Nestle is in for $300M. On the PR today the terms say any new deal will basically terminate the previous deal. So the remaining $225M milestone payments are out. How much is the remaining 50% rights worth? Maybe they will try $500M with new milestone payments + a small percentage or sales?
But in the end if you look at where Seres is today, they have about $125M cash runway (This is with the $300M they got the past 2 years). So even if they get a $500M, it will only take about 2 years for that money to be gone. The cost of RD is really expensive. SER-155 is still in phase 1!
Seres entered into an agreement with Nestlé Health Science in July 2021 to jointly commercialize SER-109 in the U.S. and Canada. Under the terms of the agreement, Nestlé Health Science will use its global pharmaceutical business, Aimmune Therapeutics, and will assume the role of lead commercialization party. Seres has received an upfront license payment of $175 million and will receive an additional $125 million upon FDA approval of SER-109. The agreement also includes sales target milestones which, if achieved, would total up to $225 million. Seres will be responsible for development and pre-commercialization costs in the U.S. Upon commercialization, Seres will be entitled to an amount equal to 50% of the commercial profits.
Source: https://ir.serestherapeutics.com/news-releases/news-release-details/seres-therapeutics-announces-confirmatory-results