Aging population, increased competition, and productivity
lost due to the pandemic is accelerating the adoption of
automation in Europe
LONDON, Jan. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Forrester
(Nasdaq: FORR) forecasts that 34% of European jobs are at risk and
12 million jobs will be lost to automation across Europe-5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain,
and the UK) by 2040.
While the pandemic continues to pressure European businesses to
invest more heavily and rapidly in automation, it's not the only
factor contributing to the forecasted job loss. According to
Forrester's Future of Jobs Forecast, 2020 to 2040 (Europe-5), workers with little bargaining
power are most at risk of displacement, especially in countries
where many are subject to casual employment contracts, including
zero-hour contracts in the UK, which require no guaranteed working
hours, or part-time jobs with low wages, such as "mini-jobs" in
Germany.
Job losses to automation will subsequently impact European
workers in wholesale, retail, transport, accommodation, food
services, and leisure and hospitality on a bigger scale. Green
energy and automation, however, will create 9 million new jobs in
Europe-5 by 2040, specifically in
clean energy, clean buildings, and smart cities.
Key findings include:
- Europe's aging population
is a demographic time bomb. By 2050, Europe-5 will have 30 million fewer people of
working age than in 2020. European businesses need to embrace
automation to help fill the gaps of an aging workforce.
- Increasing productivity and improving remote work is a top
priority. Countries including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain — where industry, construction, and
agriculture provide a larger share of their economies — are
investing more in industrial automation to increase
productivity.
- The strict definition of a job is starting to break
down. Rather than looking at automation as a substitute for a
job, European organisations are starting to assess both people and
machine skills when executing different tasks, including managing,
and updating HR systems or designing training programmes. While
jobs will be lost, jobs will also be gained and transformed as new
skills become desirable.
- Mid-skill labour jobs that consist of simple, routine tasks
are most at risk from automation. Routine jobs make up 38% of
the workforce in Germany, 34% of
the workforce in France, and 31%
of the workforce in the UK; 49 million jobs in Europe-5 are at risk from automation. As a
result, European organisations will invest in low-carbon jobs and
build employees' skill sets. Soft skills such as active learning,
resilience, stress tolerance, and flexibility — something robots
aren't known for — will complement worker automation tasks and
become more desirable.
"Lost productivity due to COVID-19 is forcing companies globally
to automate manual processes and improve remote work," said
Michael O'Grady, principal forecast
analyst at Forrester. "The pandemic is just one factor that will
shape the future of work in Europe
over the next two decades, however. European organisations are also
in a particularly strong position to embrace automation because of
Europe's declining working-age
population and the high number of routine low-skilled jobs that can
be easily automated. Automation will subsequently become
integral to how European governments and employers look at their
competitiveness and manage their older demographic."
Resources:
- Access Forrester's European predictions hub here.
- Join Forrester's LinkedIn Live 'How To Approach Anywhere-Work
in 2022' at 12.30GMT on Tuesday 18th January here. (A
recording can be accessed after this time).
About Forrester
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wisdom of our clients. To learn more, visit Forrester.com.
Contact: Hannah Segvich,
hsegvich@forrester.com