The Price Peak Puzzle: Unraveling The Timing Of Bitcoin Bull Market Peak
March 11 2024 - 9:00PM
NEWSBTC
As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its remarkable ascent, reaching a new
all-time high (ATH) of $72,300, investors wonder when the current
bull market will peak. Considering historical data and the upcoming
halving event scheduled for April 2024, crypto analyst Rekt Capital
has provided insights into potential timing. Bitcoin Peak
Expected Sooner Than Expected? By examining previous halving cycles
and the “acceleration” observed in the current cycle, Rekt Capital
suggests that Bitcoin’s bull market may peak within 266-315 days
from breaking its old all-time high, potentially occurring in
December 2024 or February 2025. Rekt Capital’s analysis reveals
that Bitcoin has historically peaked in its bull market
approximately 518-546 days after a halving event. However, the
current cycle demonstrates accelerated growth, reducing
approximately 260 days. According to the analyst, this
acceleration has the potential to halve the typical cycle length,
indicating that Bitcoin’s peak in the current bull market may occur
much sooner than anticipated. Related Reading: 94 Million XRP Exits
Binance As Bulls Reclaim Control, What’s Going On? Rekt Capital’s
perspective, measuring the bull market peak from when an old
all-time high is breached, provides valuable insights. In this
cycle, Bitcoin recently broke to new all-time highs, indicating a
potential milestone in the market. If the accelerated
perspective holds, the next bull market peak is estimated to occur
within 266-315 days from this breakout, landing somewhere between
December 2024 and February 2025, according to the analysis provided
by Rekt. Roughly every four years, Bitcoin’s halving events
have historically played a crucial role in shaping market cycles.
These events reduce the block reward miners receive, thereby
reducing the rate of new Bitcoin supply, but this time may be
different, according to Rekt, another analyst. From
Four-Year Cycle To New Horizons Similar to Rekt’s analysis, market
expert Crypto Con suggests that the “conventional four-year cycle”
may no longer hold, as Bitcoin is reaching new all-time highs
sooner than expected, and as such, Crypto Con believes that the
“boundaries of the traditional cycle” are being pushed, potentially
signaling a paradigm shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price cycles have adhered to a four-year
pattern, characterized by market peaks around four years after each
halving event. However, Crypto Con challenges this notion, arguing
that the current cycle deviates from the “traditional
timeline.” Related Reading: Cloudy Future For Ethereum ETFs –
What’s Casting Doubt On Their Fate? Bitcoin’s recent entry into
“price discovery mode” and the achievement of new ATHs
approximately a year earlier than expected suggest that the
four-year cycle may no longer hold its predictive power. Crypto
Con’s analysis indicates that the current market trajectory aligns
more closely with the 2017 bull run than with previous cycles.
Comparing the first tops of cycles 1 and 3 (2013 and 2021) to the
present, both instances were on the verge of forming their initial
peaks around April, mirroring the current market conditions.
This observation supports the possibility of Bitcoin’s next bull
market peak occurring in late 2024 rather than the previously
anticipated late 2025. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from
TradingView.com
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