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Diane Sawyer of ABC News has been running a special holiday edition of her year-long campaign "Made in America." Here are two representative quotes from the various network web pages that promote the educational series of interviews:

"In the global trade battle, you cast a vote every time you open your wallet. The decision? Whether you spend your money on products made in America or overseas."

"The National Retail Federation estimates Americans will spend $465.6 billion this year on holiday goodies -- that's $704 per shopper. Economists tell ABC World News that if we all spent just $64 more on gifts with a 'Made in America' label, we could create 200,000 new American jobs."

I'm not qualified to gauge whether this economic math is correct. And I'll admit I have a bias toward believing America's manufacturing base was destined to erode due to technology and emerging markets, as much as organized labor issues. The fact is that jobs for the average American will require ever-higher education and skill levels in an increasingly competitive global marketplace.

But my argument might be as weak as Sawyer's. So let's look as some data and analysis from a more credible source, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Here's is a link to their August paper The U.S. Content of "Made in China" by Galina Hale and Bart Hobijn.

Below is the executive summary of the article from the FRBSF website. I challenge you to leave an opinion or comment after you read this paragraph. What strikes you as meaningful or otherwise?

"Goods and services from China accounted for only 2.7% of U.S. personal consumption expenditures in 2010, of which less than half reflected the actual costs of Chinese imports. The rest went to U.S. businesses and workers transporting, selling, and marketing goods carrying the 'Made in China' label. Although the fraction is higher when the imported content of goods made in the United States is considered, Chinese imports still make up only a small share of total U.S. consumer spending."

Do you have an opinion already even without reading the paper? Does it confirm or conflict with your bias?

I believe that in a complex, highly-interconnected global economy, we must continuously reevaluate old assumptions. Read the paper linked above and let me know what you think.

Note: The above article-in-the-form-of-a-debate was originally posted on Zacks Real-Time Insight on December 13, 2011.

Kevin Cook is a Senior Stock Strategist with Zacks.com
 
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