THREE-DAY-TRADER
8 years ago
So good for you... how its turning out so far ;)
But Yeah, I didn't bank on the FOMC to use such strong rhetoric today. The 1/4 pt increase was as expected, but the market data & language by FOMC is being viewed negatively by stock market--- helping $RUSS.
It's always an uncertain 'gamble' before the FOMC meetings (& 'Minutes' meetings) as to what may happen.
It's my big time F'Up not holding or for not re-entering quickly on this one.
We'll see how market reacts yet after today, however.
In terms of FOMC today with $GOLD however, it's getting hammered along with $JNUG. So at least that's good for those of us that have been watching it for a while, and not touching it before FOMC meeting... And glad I waited!
Shaping up to be a nice opportunity fairly soon.
The Data today in combination with the FOMC strong language for Rate hike expectation possibilities in 2017 really hitting Gold for the same reasons as the stock market's reaction right now (to sell stocks today in afternoon, for the time being)
THREE-DAY-TRADER
8 years ago
That's one of the 'political' factors I was actually referring to earlier which might negatively affect RUSS yet potentially in the short term. There is an added positive hysteria for Russia due to Trump related speculations.
I think the speculations are mostly just speculations and being over hyped into the RSX, but it is affecting RSX even more so, along with Crude Oil.
I was hoping Trump would not nominate Exxon CEO Tillerson, which market perceives as a positive Russian bias (not good for RUSS).
Unfortunately Trump did nominate him so we'll see what happens yet.
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RUSS is getting pummeled by numerous factors above usual, including a lot of recent news item surprises.
Not only is RSX part of the overall stock market melt up at year end, but it got helped by surprise by news over weekend about more agreements on Oil cuts by non-OPEC countries, and now today this nomination by Trump of a Sec of State with a perceived pro-Russian bias.
Practically everything that can go wrong with RUSS over past few days is suddenly occurring (just my luck!!)... But it is creating an eventual huge buy opportunity at some point, whether it be now or by end of December.
I have avg here of 6.60 & have a stop-loss set @ approx 6.14 (G-T-C), which I already e-mailed subscribers about earlier.
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Pre-Market today:
I'm setting a Stop-Loss @ 6.14 (G-T-C) on RUSS until further notice based on latest trading activity.
I personally already added to it Monday (12/12) @ 6.31, so I have an effective average of 6.60 approx.
If anyone following wants to add today for 2nd time along with me, then only do it as a personal option & I suggest that anyone only do at a Limit of 6.40 on the 2nd time.
THREE-DAY-TRADER
8 years ago
You can see WTI Crude Oil receding from earlier highs as an added reason to think this is RUSS is close to short term capitulation. I think (as said earlier) that Oil is near topping out & that the weekend news of non OPEC members agreeing to some cuts is being over hyped.
I'm gonna stick to what I basically said since Friday, that RUSS should be done going down most likely no later than this Mon-Tues for short term & that 21 or approx lower 21 area on RSX is likely a top area.
Your 22-24 fear occurring I think is a consideration to worry about at some point, but is more applicable to the next leg up phase after this thing first has a pull back (such as at least toward 20 or 19).
RSX has been crazily upward parabolic too quickly in past few days.
We'll see what happens yet. But I just think this RUSS is due up here from 6's approx for a decent trade back toward upper 7's, maybe 8-9.
It could turn out that your original speculation to wait for 6.40, etc, may be approx correct for entry.
That said, I think RSX might not have been up today or not up as much as it has been today (with RUSS bottoming last Friday near 6.80's), had it not been for that surprise news Sunday from the non-OPEC members agreeing to some Oil output cuts.
value1008
8 years ago
Here's a 5-yr chart from Stockhouse (i don't know if it will properly display here for long before going back to minimalist default levels), and i begin to wonder if momo traders are going to take the RSX up to older horizontal shareprice areas around $22-24. At $23, the RUSS would be down to (gulp!) low $5s. At RSX hitting $24 or $25, RUSS would be in the toilet. But i'd probably be buying a substantial position there for an eventual RSX fall / RUSS rebound.
You're right: it's crazy that RSX has been up 9 days in a row. But we've seen stranger things..... So it could go 10, 11 or 12 days. Or even if there's a little dip into the red one day, it could resume going up another few to several days.
I'm being very cautious here-- but then i usually am when playing these 3x etfs, even though sometimes that means missing the bottom and subsequent substantial moves up. Just my trading style.
THREE-DAY-TRADER
8 years ago
What you said is an added possibility, but I wouldn't bet on this with that hope in mind.
And yes, I'm also thinking Oil is near a top, which is why I started entry on this recently.
The added OPEC related news was a surprise yesterday, & I don't think it's sustainable in terms of Crude Oil going up too much more.
I may have mentioned here recently I was looking for 52-53 or 54, perhaps for Oil area toppiness to occur (but didn't expect news over weekend to affect it).
Today makes 9 straight days down on RUSS... Crazy.
value1008
8 years ago
Three-Day, i realize now i'd placed a Day order, not a GTC on those shares at 6.42... so i'm still not in this one.
A question: do you think the CIA's newest report, that more strongly claims that Russians were hacking our political process, will lead to an almost "nationalist" boycotting of Russian stocks by investors here and in our ally countries?
If so, this could be an added factor to weaken the RSX....
Meanwhile, i'm still carefully looking at that RSX and obviously that price of oil to see where these might top out, before i do anything more than nibble on some RUSS shares.
Thanks for your thoughts....
value1008
8 years ago
A very interesting trade you've identified here, Three-Day. Yes, at some point this has to bounce. My concern is that a lot of the RSX action is Trump-fueled, and there has been an amazing amount of strength in different sectors (not to mention the general indices) on the Trump win of the presidency (a win, not at all in the popular vote, but in the Electoral College).
Moreover, some of the articles at SeekingAlpha on Russian stock market (see SA articles for RSX or ERUS) make that market look bullish on several fundamental points (like P/E)....
Technically, though the RSX looks overbought on its RSI, the volume on all these recent green days has been very robust. And the Wilder ADX for the RSX shows a "strong trend" in positive direction, with the leading green-line indicator way up at 52 and showing no signs yet of coming back down to rejoin the black line (at 30).
So i'm thinking of putting in bids for RUSS down in 6.40s.... I think the momo traders could run higher with RSX in this bullish trend that smacks (imo) of no small amount of "irrational exuberance" about the markets.
Having said all that, i hope RUSS has a beautiful bounce starting TODAY for all of you folks currently in it!
THREE-DAY-TRADER
8 years ago
Some more perspective on this trade:
After hrs early on so far it was showing 6.90-7.00 ask all evening.
That said, it could bounce anytime.
Just looking for a quick flip here, not a trend reversal. I'll take first approx bounce area it gives me, which should be at least 10%+.
This is so oversold that at a move back up to 7.85-8 it would be a nice double digit return(12-15%) from 6.90-7.10 and that would be only looking for a rebound to an avg mean of 9 day avg approx.
My trade is not looking for crazy huge moves up or greedy hope for trend reversal.
It is also reasonable that it could get to 8.50-9 within 2-3 days on a short term volatile move, and that would be a 20-30% profit from today... which exemplifies how oversold RUSS is.
If RUSS goes to 8-9 or even 10, the RSX uptrend overall is still intact.
I'm just playing a modest return to a short term avg means (such as 5, 9, or 20 day avg areas)
Also realize one can scale-in 2 times, not go all in today, etc. I'm not planning a major scale-in, but just saying one could do it at 7.00 and maybe 6.50-6.75 if it happens to get some pressure down yet, then set a stop-loss a little below that.
And in terms of selling, it may be wise to scale out similarly by selling half on first eventual gap up, and then wait to see what happens in next 1-2 following days with last half, just in case it pulls back after only one day up move, or in case it does get 2-3 days run up. It's a matter of playing this knowing one does not know how high it will pop when it does, but still averaging out with a good % profit (quickly) and not staying in it with an excessive long hold period.
FYI ~~ My Alerted UGAZ & LABD trades (for quick flips successfully for double digit % profits) back in November & August were applying approx same tactic & similar metrics for buy signal as RUSS is today for me.