By David B. Wilkerson
Heading into "American Idol's" most vulnerable season in seven
years, CBS, ABC and NBC are hoping that a conservative lineup of
returning hits and traditionally oriented newcomers can topple
television's reality juggernaut.
"American Idol is surely set to come back to the pack in terms
of ratings," said Jeffrey McCall, a professor of media studies at
DePauw University and author of "Viewer Discretion Advised: Taking
Control of Media Influences."
"No show can maintain craze status indefinitely. The show had
signs of weakness last year and the downward trend is likely to
continue," McCall said. "The loss of Simon [Cowell] alone gives
viewers a sense that the decline is upon us."
Still, it's hard to count out the program that has topped the
Nielsen ratings for an unprecedented six straight seasons.
"There's going to be a lot of interest and heavy sampling early,
to see the new judges and the other changes that have been made to
the show," said Todd Gordon, senior vice president and managing
director of national broadcast for Initiative Media. "It may not
get exactly the numbers it had last season, but if it can be in a
similar ballpark, I think it can put Fox into a strong
position."
Fox is owned by News Corp. (NWS, NWSA), which also owns Dow
Jones, the publisher of this newswire.
"American Idol," the U.S. version of a British series called
"Pop Idol," debuted on Fox in June 2002 as a summer series. Before
Kelly Clarkson emerged as the winner, it was clear that among the
three-judge panel that evaluated the contestants -- Paula Abdul,
Randy Jackson and Simon Cowell -- that Cowell was the unquestioned
star. His acerbic criticisms of the hopefuls aggravated many
viewers, but brought them back for more, if only to see the looks
on the victims' faces.
By the second season, when Ruben Studdard won, "Idol's" two
weekly shows finished third and fourth in the Nielsen ratings in
the coveted 18-49 category. The next year, they finished first and
second -- the Tuesday night performance show and the Wednesday
night results. And there they have remained, combining with Fox
dramas "House" and "24" to form a three-headed hydra that led Fox
to the top rank among networks in the important demo.
Changing Landscape
Now, however, with Cowell having departed to helm his own
version of a U.K. talentfest, "The X Factor," it appears that
"Idol" could be caught. And "24" ended its long run last
season.
"Simon's been critical to the show, no question," said Gordon.
"So this year's 'Idol' is hard to anticipate and plan for as media
buyer."
Fox understands the situation. Starting Jan. 19, "Idol" moves
from its familiar Tuesday-Wednesday position to Wednesdays and
Thursdays. The move was immediately seen as a way to avoid ABC's
"Dancing With The Stars," which airs its results show on Tuesday
nights.
"'Dancing With The Stars' had such a strong season, so you can
see why that switch was made," Gordon said. "The move to Thursday
is a really interesting one, because every night of the week is
competitive now."
On Wednesday nights, "Idol" will be seen in a two-hour 8-10 p.m.
Eastern slot. During the 8 o'clock hour, it faces off against the
ABC sitcoms "The Middle" and "Better With You;" the new CBS reality
offering "Live To Dance" and the returning NBC game show "Minute To
Win It."
"While Idol is likely to easily walk away with a ratings win
during the 8 p.m. hour ... it's equally as likely to see a major
erosion in its numbers during the second hour," said Patty
Williamson, a professor at Central Michigan University who studies
reality shows.
Competition in the 9 o'clock hour includes the powerful CBS
police procedural "Criminal Minds," ABC's critically acclaimed and
solidly rated sitcom "Modern Family," in its second season, and
"Chase," the new NBC police drama that will be moving from Monday
nights.
On Thursday, "Idol's" results show at 8 is primarily gunning
against comedies. CBS has strong comedies in "The Big Bang Theory"
and "S#*! My Dad Says," while NBC counters with "Community" and the
long-running "30 Rock."
"Both comedies will cut into the core 'Idol' audience, but Fox
is counting on the two comedies' ... to split their numbers,
allowing 'Idol' to come out on top as the only reality draw for
that time slot," Williamson said.
Playing It Safe
For TV historian Tim Brooks, what is remarkable about "Idol" and
its competition is just how unremarkable broadcast TV has
become.
"This is a very conservative time for network television," he
said. "Whatever wins in the ratings doesn't win because of how
great it is, but because there just isn't anything better. You
don't see anyone taking great risks to produce something truly
great. While there is risk in those kinds of shows, the upside is
also significant."
Part of the problem is a still shaky U.S. economy that makes big
mistakes particularly costly, said Bill Carroll, vice president and
director of programming at the media-buying firm Katz Television
Group. "[And] it's not only the uncertainty of other broadcast
schedules, but cable and now the DVR. Networks are going to, if at
all possible, play it safe."
The results have been painful, says McCall. "They are using
tired formulas and there isn't much original thinking going on.
Note the retreads of previous shows like 'Hawaii 5-0'.....
Originality, creativity, and solid content are needed to get and
keep viewers. Overall, I would rate this era of broadcast network
television as uninspired and mediocre. I doubt if critics will be
looking back in 10 or 20 years and noting programs that made a
difference in entertainment or social impact."
By contrast, cable shows like AMC's "Mad Men," TNT's "The
Closer" and USA's "In Plain Sight" generate a lot of the enthusiasm
among fans that was once reserved for the broadcast networks'
shows.
"I think what's really happening is that where before, Turner
and USA concentrated most of the top ratings, you have FX and Bravo
and AMC and others doing great shows, so that on any given night
the landscape is as competitive as it's ever been," Gordon said.
"The bar has been raised for cable. Not only do you need to do a
quality show, but you need to be able to demonstrate that it can
get good ratings."
Meanwhile, as more people watch programs hours or days after the
original broadcast using their digital video recorders, the
industry still hasn't figured out the full impact such behavior has
on the advertising model. Networks speak boldly about what makes
viewers pause while fast-forwarding past commercials, but there
seems little doubt that there is a lot of skipping.
CBS, ABC and Fox have been aggressive in the last 18 months
about getting cash compensation from cable and satellite companies
on behalf of their owned-and-operated TV stations, just so that
they can get money both from advertising and carriage fees, the way
cable networks do.
-By David B. Wilkerson, 415-439-6400;
AskNewswires@dowjones.com