stargazer123
6 years ago
This is what a commentator is saying.
ArcLight is a general partner of American Midstream (AMID), and owns a fair amount of AMID shares. Analysts have calculated that AMID, over the medium, to long term, is worth $10 - $12, and then up. ArcLight did not want to wait that long, and worked to depress the unit price as much as possible before making its offer to buy the partnership at the ridiculous price of $6.10. It can then take AMID private and move to sell its parts etc., and make up to a quick double on its investment, even though this will mean that it will cause the present holders of AMID stock to suffer a 50% loss.
Ethical behavior would have dictated a public auction and sale of the limited partnership assets (or some sort of recapitalization followed by a return to growth) that would have allowed current stock holders to realize getting a price closer to AMID's intrinsic value.
Clearly ArcLight went for the maximum profit plan and set the ethics part aside. This is something that potential long-term holders should keep in mind for any future ArcLight-led ventures that are potential investments.
The commentator does not think that other companies will step up with a higher bid. He does say that Arclight might increase its bid by 10% to 15%, which would bring its offer to the range of $6.70 to $7.00 dollars.
If another bidder does come forward, it would be at a higher price, so you might want to hold on and see what happens. The price probably won't fall that much while you wait to see if a higher bid shows up. Friday the stock closed close to the $6.70 price. I don't think that another bidder will come forward. I will see what happens Monday. Try to give it at least a few hours, but if it starts edging down, I will sell my shares. My average price, even with having bought more shares when it got clobbered, is $11, so I would take a big hit, but I will move on. There are a lot of good values out there, and I believe that I will eventually make up my loss, and then some.
stargazer123
6 years ago
There are very few times in a persons investing career that they come upon such a powerful story as AMID. AMID was crushed, fell under a steam roller, and sent to the dumps. All just because they obliterated their monster dividend.
People were in the stock because of its high paying dividend, and they immediately sold it when the company cut their dividend. Which makes sence if they are retired and need the money that they derive from stock dividends, and didn't want to take a chance that the stock might not rebound. But it is rebounding, in fact strongly rebounding, in fact up strongly already today, and yesterday, and the day before that, and ...
The stock was made stronger by deleting its dividend. The are paying down their debts with the money saved, PLUS they are a strong company, perfectly positioned to profit from oil companies that are DESPERATE FOR THEIR SERVICES. THE STOCK IS PERFECTLY POSITIONED TO DOUBLE IN PRICE, OR EVEN TRIPLE OR MORE, PLUS IT WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ITS DIVIDEND IN THE FUTURE. And, even with its present decreased dividend, it is one of the highest paying dividend companies.
A WIN WIN SITUATION. How many times do you encounter that?
stargazer123
6 years ago
Same here. By the way there is a seeking alpha article written Saturday, that says that the person who has taken control of AMID is known for his ability to turn companies into growth company's and that the stock price should triple within 5 years (or sooner).
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4200305-american-midstream-attitude-adjustment
It may take people awhile to realize that the company is getting rid of under performing sections of the company, and, after using part of the money that they get, to pay down some of the debt, using the rest to acquire assets that will mesh with the company and accelerate its upward growth.
So there could still be time to buy more shares at these prices.
stargazer123
6 years ago
Up $0.475 already today. Up $1.125 in 4 days of trading. Strong company with great earnings growth. Dividend was decreased, but still a strong 6% dividend. This will draw back in people looking for a good dividend, plus a stock that also has good, in this case, great, stock price appreciation. And of course, it will also draw in people that are looking for a stock with great growth prospects.
The best of both worlds. No reason why the stock can't get back to the $11 price it had before the dividend cut, especially since the dividend was cut so that the company could use the released cash to acquire companies whose synergy would greatly improve AMID's profit profile.
We could easily go to $15 or higher. A +100% stock price increase.
Whoa, and now while I'm writing this its already up .55
stargazer123
6 years ago
American Midstream seeking alpha article Aug. 11, 2018
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4197972-american-midstream-despite-negative-recent-headlines-results-decent
Talks about what has taken place with the company, its strong revenue growth, and that it "looks quite well positioned to take advantage of future growth in the North American energy."
Even so, as the writer notes, people are upset at the dividend cut, and that the SXE joint venture fell through.
The stock price has been falling the last few days. The next dividend payout will be Tuesday 8/14/18 and I will be buying more shares then.
stargazer123
6 years ago
AMID will pay $0.1031 on August 14 to unitholders of record as of the close of business on August 6, 2018.
The dividend itself won't be paid until August 14. The price that day will drop $0.1031, and as you say, the price usually falls further than the dividend. And it may even be falling between now and Aug 14. Possibly even after that.
I will be buying more on the 14th, or 15th, depending on how it is reacting. As you say, whatever the price, it will be a good buy in price, because the long term stock price will end up much higher.
If AMID starts rising from here, a drop of $0.1034 won't mean much, so if AMID's price starts rising before the August 14 dividend date, I may buy then, rather than wait for the dividend date.