Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO) Quote

If we close over $12.85 for 20 days of a 30 consecutive trading day period it triggers a convertible event for the 7% 2029 convertibles. Two things could happen.
1) the note holders ask for their notes to be converted to stock or their cash back and since we don't have the cash we issue 16 million new shares at $9.89 per share.
2) the note holders don't ask for the notes to be converted but can at any time. That changes $160 million in long term debt to current debit. That messes up our line of credit with BofA.
I don't know what that will do to the stock price but IMO nothing good I would think?

Some Breakout???

Interesting that both Halozyme and Avid have both fallen about 10% in the last several days....and of course for no reason that we are aware of?

Will the MM push us back into the $10's...or even lower??? Great if you are trading your shares, but no so great if you are holding waiting for a breakout!

"Breakout trade WATCH for possible breakout above 11.7",...

"Target: 13.25, 17.3% Stop: 10.73 Loss: 5%
P/L ratio: 3.5 : 1 - Excellent"
*******************************

At Least According To:

https://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=CDMO

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDers!

MM clearing cumulative trades.

FFTT
JBAIN

Interesting trades today
Buy: 480KNeutral: 197KSell: 110K
Following marked as stock option trades.
One big buy
09//20/2024 14:15:52 EDT V 11.90 207300 ND

And a sell
09/20/2024 14:15:58 EDT V 11.88 124400 NDD

I guess the old adage of "easy come, easy go" applies here today with our stock price. I was kind of expecting this unfortunately.....IMO, for this stock to push and hold past the $12 per share and above, we need a little more solid news.

Looks (in my opinion 😃) we need at least one more day below 11.50.

FFTT
JBAIN

4ourRetierment

Sorry to say not today !

Michael

"Breakout trade WATCH for possible breakout above 12.54..."

Target: 14.11, 18.6% Stop: 11.44 Loss: 3.8%
P/L ratio: 4.9 : 1 - Excellent"
********************************

At Least According To:
https://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=CDMO

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDers!

Down to 11.96 stops being taken out ? so down .47 cents on Approx 60,000 shares were yesterday it took 1.2 million to sustain a $1 advance crazy !!

Update 8,000 more shares brings the PPS down .58 cents so far today !! that's down .58 on 69,000 shares traded . Well over 1/2 of our gain from yesterday on 1.2 million shares traded ! and continuing now down .60

Michael

cheynew

Yep they are at it again 110.000 shares traded flat 26,000 shares additional and they pushed it down .39 I do not not know how they make money doing that

Michael

Unusual opening trade
09/20/2024 9:30:00 EDT X 12.45 109766 NS

It has been over two months and no one has taken me up on this wager. If everyone think things have really changed I should be flooded with offers! Not even flying little bear has made an offer and he's sure we are going to $4 PPS!

FFTT
JBAIN

The thought occurred to me, perhaps not realistic, but:

CDMO may not be in existence next Monday if a buyout deal is finalized over this coming weekend. Any hint of that buyout in the now archived fireside chat that will not be available until next Monday?

ANIP is undergoing similar speculation concerning a buyout that could occur anytime.

Did anyone here listen to the conference fireside chat today? I was not able to, so I would appreciate at least a summary of what was said.

I find it strange that an archived replay may not be available until next week(?).

Yes I did, and I think it is a very good thing!!!

You got your million shares.

Following the fireside chat, a webcast replay will be available via a link on Avid’s investor website at: http://ir.avidbio.com/investor-events.

Nick and Pramthesh start their fireside chat in an hour.

https://ir.avidbio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avid-bioservices-participate-craig-hallum-bioprocessing

Would love to see at least 1 million shares traded today, but will take it either way....not sure how much higher we can go without some news???

This beats where we were but Lordy I still kick myself for not dumping at $34 or whatever it was. It will return but will I live that long? We'll see LOL!

Rippn north folks, congrats to those who held

The situation with Halo and cdmo today
could spark a takeover...just my opinion..
The shorts are probably in arbitrage mode
likely locking up a spread between the short
and long........GLTA longs....

Unusual we are up almost a dollar and HALO is down 2.43.

Quote: "Breakout trade CONFIRMED breakout above 11.7 Target:13.27,"...

12.8% Stop: 11.3 Loss: 3.9%
P/L ratio: 3.3 : 1 - Excellent"

*******************************
At Least According To:

https://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=CDMO

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDers!

IDK , IMO the interest rate cut could push us north.

Futures up +492.

One more day of downward pressure/consolidation. In my opinion of course.

FFTT
JBAIN

Hi!! All MM Signaling of intent ...

What is the point of these 1 share trades?
Date/Time Price Shares Exch/Mkt
09/18/2024 19:13:42 EDT I 11.99 1 NDD
09/18/2024 16:56:38 EDT I 11.13 1 EDGX
09/18/2024 16:37:56 EDT W 11.42 88223

And we're stuck with a 7% note to pay. We better get more business because if you run the numbers
Yearly interest payments
$125 million at 1.25% = $1,562,500
$160 million at 7% = $11,200,000
Difference $9,637,500
That means we have to do about $32 million more in revenue to pay for the higher interest payment(That's if Avid does a 30% margin)
Last quarter they did 14% margin which would require a $69 million increase in revenue to pay the new interest payment

JUst my logical thoughts.
Cutting rates will make getting financing for startups much easier. With that thouyght AVID should be getting more business.

In my opinion it COULD be the MM picking up some easy shares to go with the rate cut surprise. Oh My

FFTT
JBAIN

Looks like you spoke to soon.😊

Well it looks like we have our answer...... Next bottom likely below 11 but 10.50 isn't out of the question. All my opinion of course.

FFTT
JBAIN

Today looks to be about 50-50 whether we set a new 52 week high (+3.2%) or we get pushed back down towards the $11 level. If we continue to push higher, the next stop is likely about $12.50. All in my opinion of course 😁

FFTT
JBAIN

This painting the tape I like. Doubt it holds.

09/17/2024 16:40:09 EDT I 11.93 14 NDD

Well, to be fair, the entire market pulled back towards the end of the day, so unlike some days, the stock was trading very much like the overall market today. Avid Stock price appreciation percentage still bettered the Russell 2000 ave for the day....so all in all, a pretty good positive.

Now will the share price find a way into the $12's in the coming week or two(or heaven forbid, back into the $10's or)??? I am not sure...we will see!

traaa lllaaaaa llllllllaaaaa llllalaaaa

I don't think it will unless there are significant "real" shorts that need to cover. Volume is showing this is still MM trading so I would expect they take it down again.

FFTT
JBAIN

Nice call Jbainsky....now lets see if it will hold as the volume is still on the lighter side!!!

Ummm NEW 52 week HIGH!
Hopefully this nice run up will continue and persevere through market conditions and MM Manipulation… all the best to all longs!

TAAAA-DAAAA!

will today start a run of 52 week highs? We are set up that way and the flying little bear in no where to be found.

IMO it is going to be tough to move much higher until the company demonstrates that they will be able to make a profit(not just build on their backlog)by actually making a dent in their excess capacity! The current convertible financing agreement is set up much more to favour the issuer of the debt than the recipient with a low strike price($9's) and a high 7% interest rate especially in light of the fact that we are now entering a longer term time line of falling interest rates....this refi was done at the height of the interest rate cycle.

Now I have not seen the financing document, but I would hope(and believe) that management would have the option to pay off the loan before its maturity date....especially with rates falling going forward?

So if I was Daniel Hart, I would be searching to see if there is a better deal out there, as in a lower rate with a higher strike price on the convertible. The company was in an emergency type situation(although I will not and do not understand why the original loan had to be paid back immediately which is a little bizzare to say the least) and so had to make a deal that may not have been the greatest but was one they were forced to make out of necessity.

So basically cutting a deal with a sort of White knight financier to negotiate some kind of a financing vehicle that would provide enough funding to pay off the original agreement at much better terms! This would certainly make sense to me!!

Now it may be a little early, but perhaps in 12-18 months, Avid will be in a stronger position and rates will be probably be 1.5 to 2 points lower and this would really help their interest costs.

Or perhaps just have the White Knight buy us out???

Some things to ponder while we seem to be stuck in the current share price range.

FYI

My post# 346268 "This is just my opinion"
My post# 346265 " This is just my opinion of course"
My post# 346217 " I believe the problem is"

I try to state that things I post are my opinion, and your right I don't always do that, but everyone should know nothing posted on here should be taken as fact.
I guess posting that nothing posted here should be taken as fact is really my opinion, or is it?🤨

djohn

IMO It is hard to make money when typically 20-50 thousand shares at the beginning of the day dictates the price . So if you short 50,000 to get the PPS lower it mostly stays at that price . Same for up days IMO not enough volume in-between to make money all IMO Also there are more traders then just the note holder which IMO you seem to bring up as the reason for the above. You should state that your post is your opinion instead of portraying them as fact


Michael

Has anyone noticed our 52 week high is
now 11.57? We all know where we've been, but we could be on new high list soon...
Stranger things have happened!!!

Hi hay,
Convertible Arbitrage is a neutral position that makes profits on volatility. I don't think they're here to create downward pressure. They're here to create volatility and trade off of it to make money while being protected both on the downside and upside. Plus collecting the 7% dividend payment and interest on the cash received selling the borrowed stock they shorted.

"Breakout trade WATCH for possible breakout above 11.7"...

"Target: 13.18, 17.8% Stop: 10.63 Loss: 5%
P/L ratio: 3.6 : 1 - Excellent"
***************************************************

At Least According To:

https://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?symbol=CDMO

Glta $CDMO Bulls, Watchers, & StockHOLDers!