UPDATE: ADP Reports 325K December Job Gain, Best In A Year
January 05 2012 - 9:38AM
Dow Jones News
The private sector added a white-hot 325,000 jobs in December,
for the best gain in a year, according to a report Thursday from
payroll processing giant Automatic Data Processing.
The report works to capture the monthly change in nonfarm
private sector job changes. Forecasters had expected to see a gain
of 175,000, following the revised 204,000 gain in November.
"December's advance was the largest monthly gain since December
2010, reflecting strong job creation across most industries," said
ADP President and Chief Executive Carlos Rodriguez. "Small and
medium-sized businesses were hiring at a similar pace," he said,
adding that "job creation among large employers was also
encouraging."
In the report, large firms added 37,000 jobs, while the service
sector as a whole added 273,000 new employees. The goods-producing
sector added 52,000.
The ADP report comes just ahead of Friday's release of the
December nonfarm payrolls report. The Friday report is frequently
the most important release in any given month's calendar of
economic events, offering key insights into the health of the
economy.
The challenge for financial markets is that the job data
generated in the ADP report doesn't line up all that well with the
data produced by the government. Economists currently expect that
the improvements that have been seen in hiring over recent months
will have continued into the final month of the year, with the
nation expected to have added 155,000 jobs, versus the 120,000-job
gain in November. The unemployment rate is seen ticking up a hair
to 8.7%, from 8.6%.
Macroeconomic Advisers' Joel Prakken, who partners with ADP to
create the report, was cautiously optimistic about the report. "If
you put this figure in a larger context, you can still feel pretty
comfortable there's a nice signal in this number," Prakken said.
But the economist added "I want to be a little cautious about this
number" given the magnitude of the gain.
Prakken noted it's entirely possible seasonal factors distorted
the December number and made it look better than it should have.
But he said the overall direction of the number is undeniable, and
it's possible the unemployment rate will fall further from what is
now a 8.6% level. Prakken did note that government hiring is not
captured in the ADP report, and that it may have a negative
influence on the national hiring data due on Friday.
The very large job gain reported for December caught Wall Street
off guard. "Nothing is at face value when it comes to ADP," said
Eric Green of TD Securities. "We were bullish on the number Friday,
comfortably above consensus, but not this bullish and do not expect
a payroll gain tomorrow to reflect this ADP number," he said.
The good news seen in the ADP data was backed up by the weekly
data on first time claims for unemployment insurance. That fell by
a wider-than-expected 15,000, to 372,000 for the week.
-By Michael S. Derby; Dow Jones Newswires, 212-416-2214
michael.derby@dowjones.com
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