Autonomous Trucking – Delivering on Hopes and
Goods
BOSTON, July 11,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The autonomous truck industry is
experiencing a revival after the initial hype, with vehicle
delivery numbers continuously breaking records. Companies in
Asia, Europe, and the
United States are eagerly entering the commercialization
testing phase. Autonomous trucks are addressing real-world problems
by saving transportation costs and optimizing Total Cost of
Ownership (TCO) through practical calculations. By 2044, it is
expected that the global trucking fleet will be supported by an
additional half a million L4 autonomous drivers, while the
remaining drivers will either act as supervisors or work in less
developed regions. The autonomous truck industry is projected to
have an annual growth rate of 25.6% over the next 20 years. This is
one of the key findings from the new IDTechEx research report,
"Autonomous Trucks 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts".
Pain points in the commercialization of autonomous
trucks
Trucks have long been regarded as having great potential in
commercializing autonomous driving systems. Compared to robotaxis
and other mobility-service-oriented autonomous platforms, companies
do not need to focus as much on user experience or integration
within society. The purpose of autonomous driving systems in trucks
is to address several critical issues within the industry, with
driver management being the most prominent. Unstable social
conditions and COVID-19 have deterred many from becoming truck
drivers. Many young people are reluctant to spend their lives on
the road when homeworking has become a viable way to build a
career. The aging population exacerbates the labor shortage, making
waning driver numbers cause a bottleneck in land transportation.
Fewer drivers mean carriers are forced to increase wages to attract
new and suitable drivers, thus raising operating costs.
Safety is another crucial consideration in the trucking
industry. According to "Intelligent Safety White Paper for
China's Road Freight Industry,"
there are 3.7 accidents per million kilometers in China's freight industry – equivalent to one
traffic accident per driver every 16 months. The annual insurance
payout is about RMB 30,000 per
vehicle (US$4,286), with 37% of
accidents attributed to driver error and 35% related to the lack of
assisting equipment. Data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety
Administration indicates that heavy-duty trucks and buses in
the United States have 0.1
accidents per million kilometers, with 1% being fatal. The
significant disparity arises from differences in road traffic
infrastructure between western and eastern China, differences in management regulations
between developed and underdeveloped areas, and reduced insurance
costs and personal injury compensation.
Using autonomous long-haul trucks has the potential to reduce
the number of accidents, as autonomous driving systems do not get
distracted and can facilitate more efficient and effective
communication with other vehicles or devices. IDTechEx's new report
delves deep into the pain points of commercializing autonomous
trucks, highlighting the reasons why the industry is choosing
autonomy.
The commercialization path of autonomous trucks
In 2024, autonomous truck companies are actively conducting
commercial testing in the hope of addressing the paint points
listed above. After studying more than ten of the largest
autonomous truck companies, IDTechEx has outlined two main
commercialization paths. These paths are influenced by government
regulations on autonomous vehicle testing in various countries,
with some regions providing detailed policy support specifically
for autonomous trucks.
Path 1: Stepping from L2 to L4
Led by Inceptio, the
first path involves gradually upgrading the in-vehicle autonomous
driving system from Level 2 (L2) to Level 4 (L4). The goal is to
utilize L2 advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) to pave the
way for commercialization and gather real-world data to prepare for
L4 autonomous driving systems. Although L2 cannot replace drivers,
it can alleviate fatigue, extend driving distances, and enhance
safety. In the Chinese market, carriers can drop from two drivers
to just one on longer routes thanks to the convenience and safety
available from L2-L3 ADAS trucks.
Path 2: Establishing High-Quality L4 Fixed Routes
The
second path focuses on establishing high-quality L4 fixed routes
(called "hub-to-hub") for short-distance (200-400 miles) autonomous
or unmanned transportation. Sweden's Einride is a notable example of a
company doing this, with three route plans in the UK, Norway, and Sweden. Companies need to pre-plan the routes
for downstream transportation customers and set up related
auxiliary facilities along the way to ensure the smooth operation
of L4 autonomous driving. As an electric truck company, Einride has
designed an autonomous driving network called "Grids" to address
fleet optimization, tractor swaps, and battery management
optimizations. Einride is already operating independently in
Europe and the United States.
IDTechEx's report provides an in-depth analysis of these two
commercialization paths and offers region-specific and
market-specific forecasts.
IDTechEx believes that at the current stage, L4 autonomous
trucks require more efficient route planning to reduce
uncertainties along the way, thus improving the quality of the
Operational Design Domains (ODD). The L4 hub-to-hub transport can
consolidate cargo from multiple clients and maximize the use of the
same ODD for L4 level transportation. This approach can save
vehicle energy and enhance vehicle utilization.
Commercialization representatives in three continents
IDTechEx has tracked global and regional leaders in autonomous
truck sales and found increasing disparities among them. The market
environments in each of the three major continents have fostered
their own leading companies.
China
China was the first to achieve the mass
production and commercial delivery of autonomous trucks. Inceptio
and DeepWay have made significant sales in their respective
sectors—internal combustion engine (ICE) and pure electric. These
companies leverage vertical integration, supply chain dominance,
and economies of scale to solidify their early lead and extend
their dominance into foreign markets.
Europe
Einride stands
out as a leader in Europe,
achieving L4 level commercial operations in three regions. Einride
boasts a highly integrated management platform that oversees fleet
operations, energy management, and freight volumes.
United
States
The United
States was the earliest to begin L4 level truck road
testing, with numerous players involved. Kodiak and Aurora have
accumulated leading global test mileage. However, regulatory
challenges have slowed commercialization progress, with mass
production expected in the coming years.
The IDTechEx report, "Autonomous Trucks 2024-2044: Technologies,
Trends, Forecasts", provides detailed insights into the market
share and growth prospects of key regions, including China, the U.S., and Europe. In addition to routes to commercial L4
deliveries, the report also includes assessments of technical
maturity, value chain positioning, business models, and practical
calculations to determine the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for
different levels of autonomous systems (L0, L2, L3, L4) across
various markets.
To find out more about this new IDTechEx report, including
downloadable sample pages, please visit
www.IDTechEx.com/AutoTrucks.
For the full portfolio of autonomy market research available
from IDTechEx, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Autonomy.
About IDTechEx
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging
technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been
helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply
chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more
information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or
visit www.IDTechEx.com.
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Charlotte Martin
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press@IDTechEx.com
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