By Russ Britt
Car companies are going bankrupt, banks are teetering on the
brink of disaster, jobs are scarce - and Hollywood couldn't be
happier.
Well, maybe the film industry isn't exactly overjoyed that the
U.S. economy is struggling, but difficult times have given
moviemakers a chance to pad their box-office take in 2009. This
year, Hollywood is proving the old adage that when the tough gets
going, the tough go to the movies - along with everyone else.
Film revenue is up 17% so far this year and ticket sales have
jumped 15%, data show. It looks as if movie makers are headed for
another big summer, if the misery index offers any proof, says Paul
Dergarabedian, box-office analyst for Hollywood.com.
"If the first 17 weeks of the year are any indication, we'll
have a massive summer," Dergarabedian says. "We have been breaking
records left and right since the beginning of the year."
When the summer movie season - filmdom's equivalent of Christmas
for retailers - has its traditional kickoff Friday, attendance
should hold its own against last year's record season.
Though some films may have trouble matching some of the more
incredible box-office successes of 2008 - such as the $1 billion
worldwide take of "The Dark Knight" - sales overall could surpass
those of last year, says Gitesh Pandya, editor of
BoxOfficeGuru.com
"Overall, I think we've got enough ammunition to match last
summer," Pandya said.
Sequel-rich
As with every summer, this year will be loaded with sequels,
though the term is getting harder to define. The film industry's
summer goes from the first weekend in May to Labor Day weekend.
The season is front-loaded with big May releases, including this
weekend's debut of an "X-Men" sequel/prequel "X-Men Origins:
Wolverine" from News Corp.'s (NWSA) Twentieth-Century Fox unit.
(News Corp. also is parent of MarketWatch, the publisher of this
report.)
Like recent films in the "Batman" and "Superman" series, "X-Men"
goes back in time to explain how the razor-fingered character
played by this year's Oscar host, Hugh Jackman, came into
being.
The same sort of film-franchise time traveling takes place the
following weekend when Viacom Inc.'s (VIA) Paramount unit releases
what the industry is calling a "reboot" of the "Star Trek"
franchise. The film doesn't feature any of the actors from the old
television series or the new ones, though Leonard Nimoy is listed
in the credits in a small part.
Instead, the $150 million film is designed, much as 2005's
"Batman Begins," to chronicle the early days of Capt. James T. Kirk
and the rest of the crew of the Enterprise.
Director Ron Howard refuses to call his May 15 release of
"Angels and Demons" a sequel, but Tom Hanks reprises his "Da Vinci
Code" role as symbologist Robert Langdon in the Sony Corp. (SNE)
film. Also, the Catholic Church plays a prominent role.
Yet two films likely to pass the sequel smell test with flying
colors will debut just before Memorial Day: Fox's "Night at the
Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" and "Terminator Salvation," from
Time Warner Inc.'s (TWX) Warner Bros. unit.
Originals take over
For roughly a month after that, the schedule is pretty much
sequel-free as "Up" from Walt Disney Co. (DIS) and its Pixar unit
comes out May 29. After that, a number of comedies will dominate
the month of June
Three debut on the same day, June 5. They include Warner's "The
Hangover," News Corp. unit Fox Searchlight's "My Life in Ruins" and
an adventure comedy from General Electric's (GE) Universal Pictures
unit, "Land of the Lost," starring Will Ferrell.
Toward the end of the month, Paramount will put out the sequel
to its hugely successful 2007 release, "Transformers." This film,
"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen," will make an unusual
Wednesday debut on June 24.
One more notable original feature hits screens in early July.
Johnny Depp will star as John Dillinger in "Public Enemies," which
debuts on July 1 in time for the Independence Day holiday. The
Universal film is directed by Michael Mann.
That same day, another sequel hits screens: Fox's "Ice Age: Dawn
of the Dinosaurs." It's the third installment in that animated
series.
Later in the month comes "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood
Prince" from Warner. The latter is the sixth installment in the
"Potter" franchise, and was delayed from its planned debut in
November last year.
Warner is hoping lightning strikes twice in the same place by
moving the "Potter" release. It now occupies the same weekend that
"Dark Knight" took last year on its way to a record debut of $158
million.
Approaching $10 billion
This year's summer season could set a record not only for the
period but help bring about the first-ever $10 billion year in
domestic receipts, Dergarabedian said.
The industry set a record in summer grosses last year at $4.2
billion on its way to $9.6 billion for all of 2008. The full-year
total was down marginally from 2007.
A record 45 films are making "wide" debuts in more than 2,000
theaters, up from 40 last year and 37 in 2007.
While measuring public tastes always has been dicey for
filmmakers whenever the industry makes a big push, the recession is
expected to figure prominently in the overall totals. Consumers
likely will limit vacation spending as the economy continues to be
uncertain.
"The general public is looking for ways to get their
entertainment without breaking the bank," Dergarabedian said.
-Russ Britt; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com