DNA Doric Nimrod Air One Limited

TAKING THE PULSE: European pharmaceutical companies are expected once again to show they are relatively insulated from most issues affecting the wider economy as they report fourth-quarter results in the coming weeks.

Earnings are widely expected to either meet or beat expectations, although not to such an extent to warrant major forecast upgrades. Some companies may prefer to offer a cautious outlook for 2009, especially if they are exposed to Medicare in the U.S. or have sizable consumer-healthcare operations, which may be vulnerable if consumers curb their spend on over-the-counter products such as painkillers and vitamin supplements.

Currency movements, with the dollar and the euro strengthening in the quarter against sterling, are also expected to have varying effects on earnings, depending on the type of currency used to book accounts.

 
   Novartis (NVS) - January 28, 0600 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: A strong rebound in prescription drug sales drove revenue growth in the fourth quarter, and will help offset an expected drop in sales of generic drugs. Sandoz, the fully-owned subsidiary that specializes in making and selling copies of drugs which lost patent-protection, failed to launch new top-selling drugs over the quarter, analysts say. The sale of over-the-counter products, such as cough medicines or other drugs that don't require a prescription, have probably also suffered due to weakening consumer spending.

MAIN FOCUS: Investors will focus on the company's outlook for the full year and any comments on how the deteriorating economic environment and the new Democrat-led U.S. administration will affect earnings. With currencies working in Novartis' disadvantage, and weakness at the generics and consumer health units, Novartis "may find it difficult to offer an aggressive outlook for 2009," said analysts at Deutsche Bank, who have a hold rating on the stock.

 
   Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Jan. 29, 0700 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: The weakening world economy is expected to have had only marginal effect on Novo Nordisk's business, so sales and earnings are seen rising from a year earlier. The net profit increase will be particularly strong after the company booked one-off charges of DKK1.3 billion for discontinuation of an inhaled insulin product in the fourth quarter of 2007. Sales will also be helped by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the Danish krone. The company should be able to maintain its previous 2009 outlook for 10% sales and EBIT growth in local currencies.

MAIN FOCUS: Novo Nordisk is expected to give a new long-term guidance, which will be the report's main focus item. Analysts see a good chance that the company will be able to raise previous targets. Novo Nordisk's outlook for the important U.S. market will also be key. Its international operations may have been hit by the economic downturn to some extent and comments on the impact will be of interest. No major news is expected about the launch of closely-watched diabetes drug candidate liraglutide.

 
   AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) - Jan 29, 1100 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: The strengthening dollar in the fourth quarter is expected to hurt revenues generated outside the U.S., given the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker reports its accounts in U.S. dollars. Still, costs are likely to have been helped by sterling weakness. Cholesterol-lowering drug Crestor and asthma treatment Symbicort are likely to prove the fastest-growing products in the quarter.

MAIN FOCUS: Guidance for 2009 is likely to be positive. Citigroup analysts forecast AstraZeneca will guide to mid single-digit earnings growth at constant exchange rates, compared with a $4.90-$5.05 range flagged by the company for 2008. Analysts expect a further update on cancer drug Zactima, which in November reported mixed results from a late-stage study testing the drug as a treatment for lung cancer.

 
   Roche Holding AG (ROG.VX) - Feb. 4, 0600 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Roche, which reports earnings only every six months, will report a marginal increase in full-year net profit, but sales will have dropped due to the lack of major Tamiflu pandemic revenues. The Swiss franc's strength is also depressing the value of sales made in the euro and dollar areas. Excluding these items, Roche will have put in a strong performance, with sales driven by the company's large portfolio of profitable cancer drugs.

MAIN FOCUS: Investors will focus on Roche's outlook for the full year, and any comments on how the deteriorating economic environment and the new U.S. administration will affect earnings. Roche will probably guide conservatively for double-digit sales growth, and for core earnings per share to grow faster than sales. Any comments on how the planned acquisition Genentech Inc. (DNA) will be closely watched.

 
   GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK) - Feb. 5, 1200 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: The world's second-largest drugmaker by prescription drug sales, which reports its accounts in sterling, is set to benefit from the weakening U.K. currency against the dollar and the yen. This will have provided tailwind for sales of asthma treatment Advair, whose main market is in the U.S. Group sales will be hit by the loss to generic competition of four older drugs, however.

MAIN FOCUS: Guidance for 2009 is expected to be conservative, given the uncertainties arising from the expected healthcare reform in U.S. and how the consumer healthcare business fares in a recession.

 
   Sanofi-Aventis SA (SNY) - Feb. 11, 0600 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Fourth quarter earnings will be overshadowed by the first outing of Chief Executive Chris Viehbacher. Analysts expect to hear details of his plans for the world's third-largest drugmaker, which Deutsche Bank reckons is "in dire need for strategic redirection."

MAIN FOCUS: Investors will be focusing on any eventual savings targets as well as a likely restructuring of the research and development operations. The discontinuation of less-than-promising products or even entire therapeutic areas are also expected, as are plans for alliances and acquisitions to boost Sanofi-Aventis' lackluster pipeline of experimental drugs.

 
   Merck KGaA (MRK.XE) - February 18, 0600 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: The German drugs and chemicals company is expected to report fourth-quarter results that are in line with management forecasts. While the global finance crisis is expected to hit the liquid crystals unit, the good performance of cancer drug Erbitux - Merck's major long-term growth driver - should continue.

MAIN FOCUS: Analysts will monitor the weak performance of the company's liquid crystal unit as a result of strongly reduced demand from customers in the automotive and consumer electronics industries. Merck is the world's largest supplier of the liquid crystal compounds used in televisions, mobile phones and computer laptops. Analysts are also watching for the sales of Erbitux. They believe that Merck has achieved the sales-guidance of Erbitux for 2008. For this key drug Merck has predicted sales of EUR600 million for the full year.

 
   Actelion Ltd. (ATLN.VX) - Feb. 19, 0600 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Actelion is expected to report continuous growth in sales coming in from its lead product Tracleer. The market will carefully eye any impact on sales from a depreciation of the dollar. Actelion hosts an R&D day also on Feb. 19. Ahead of the publication, U.S.-based rival Gilead (GILD) will report 2008 figures on Jan. 27 with a potential update on Tracleer's competitor drug Letairis. Most analysts don't think Letairis is currently a threat to Actelion, though, as the roll out is taking longer than expected.

MAIN FOCUS: Sales are expected to grow 3% in 2008, according to Helvea analyst Olav Zilian. Investors will carefully look at Actelion's pipeline update, especially for almorexant, an experimental insomnia drug with blockbuster potential.

 
   Shire PLC (SHPGY) - Feb. 19, 1200 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: The U.K.'s third largest drugmaker by sales is expected to post strong fourth-quarter results, helped by strong sales and price increases of key hyperactivity drugs Adderall XR and Vyvanse, in addition to growing sales of the highly profitable therapies for genetic diseases, especially Elaprase.

MAIN FOCUS: Investors will want to hear management's views of the hyperactivity market in the U.S. once Adderall XR becomes generic in April 2009 and whether there are plans to change Vyvanse prices in order to fend off competition from cut-price generic Adderall XR.

 
   UCB SA  (UCB.BT) - March 3, 0600 GMT 
 

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: The company should be able to meet its EUR720 million guidance for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA in 2008, analysts said. UCB is in a transition period as it seeks to offset pressure on earnings due to the expiration of patents on blockbusters such as epilepsy drug Keppra, while increasingly focusing on two key pharmaceutical areas - immunology and the central nervous system. A EUR300 million euro restructuring plan presented last year called SHAPE is key for this strategy and could add to the costs in 2008 earnings, while its benefits will show in 2009, said Jan Van den Bossche, a Brussels-based analyst at Petercam.

MAIN FOCUS: Analysts and investors will focus on fresh information about market erosion for Keppra in the U.S. because of generics competition since its patent expiration. Eyes also on news about a possible resumption of sales of Parkinson's disease patch Neupro. UCB had to recall Neupro in the U.S. in 2008 because of a manufacturing problem allegedly undermining its efficacy. The company has said it will seek to "initiate a dialogue" in 2009 with U.S. authorities for potential relaunch.

 
   Bayer AG (BAY.XE) -  March 3, 0630 GMT 
 

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Analysts expect fourth-quarter EBITDA to be flat compared with the previous year as a strong performance from the crop science and health care units is offset by weakness in material science. Growth in pharmaceutical, consumer health and crop science segments due to favorable currency effects, cost cutting and strong agricultural sales in Latin America. Polycarbonate and polyurethane volumes are likely to be down due to weak demand.

MAIN FOCUS: Investors will focus on 2009 guidance for the whole business and for the material science unit in particular.

-By Elena Berton, Dow Jones Newswires; 44 20 7842 9267; elena.berton@dowjones.com

(Anita Greil, Heide Oberhauser, Alessandro Torello, Allison Connolly, Gustav Sandstrom and Julia Mengewein contributed to this report.)

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.