By Kate Gibson
As crude oil on Friday hit a high for the year above $74 a
barrel, energy shares rallied, fueling the broader U.S. stock
market toward weekly gains. But if oil's price gains continue, what
has been viewed as a bullish signal could easily turn bearish for
U.S. equity investors.
Positive U.S. and European economic data, along with weakness in
the dollar, helped in supporting oil's surge, with the front-month
futures contract lately up $1.13 at $74.04 a barrel, after earlier
hitting $74.72 -- its highest level so far this year. .
Crude futures have had "trouble staying above $73" and hence had
been trading in a range of $65 to $73 a barrel, said Kevin
Kruszenski, director of equity trading, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Inc.
"So today it's a focus, since we're at a very important level,"
he said.
While crude's climb on Friday had it rallying to its highest
point yet for the year, a barrel of oil remains roughly half of
where it stood at its height last summer, when crude-oil futures on
July 11 hit an intraday high of $146.65, with the Dow industrials
shed 129 points that day.
"A year or so ago, higher (oil) prices were bad for the stock
market, now the inverse is true. It's seen as a sign of economic
recovery," Kruszenski noted.
Rising energy costs would be seen in a less favorable light
should the price of crude climb back over $100 a barrel, Kruszenski
said. That said, it's unlikely that that would happen anytime soon,
he added.
"It's too early in the economic recovery. I don't think there is
enough business or consumer activity," said Kruszenski.
Other analysts had differing views on the tipping point at which
rising crude prices would fall out of favor with equities
investors.
In the view of Mike Zarembski, senior commodities analyst at
OptionsXpress, crude at $80 to $85 a barrel would take the steam
out of an economic rally.
On Wall Street, energy shares fronted the broad market's advance
to close out the week, with shares including Nabors Industries Ltd.
(NBR) and Cameron International Corp. (CAM) both up nearly 5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) added 146.31 points, or
1.5%, to 9,496.36, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) climbed 16.86
points, or 1.7%, to 1,024.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index (RIXF)
also rose, up 27.29 points, or 1.4%, to 2,016.3.