By Nick Godt
A huge three-week rally in stocks will meet a number of
stumbling blocks next week, including some earnings, a meeting of
finance ministers and central bankers from the G20, as well as the
key jobs report for March.
Congress will also be hearing comments on key proposals to
change to mark-to-market accounting.
"We've had the largest three-week move in stocks since 1938,"
said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors. "It's
probably asking for a lot that the market continue to move higher
over the next three weeks. We have some formidable challenges
coming up ahead, and it would seem that it's time for a
breather."
On Friday, stocks fell but still closed a strong week of gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 148 points, or 1.9%, to end
at 7,776. The S&P 500 Index fell 16 points, or 2%, to end at
815, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (RIXF) lost 41 points, or
2.6%, to end at 1,545.
For the week, the Dow rallied 6.8%, the S&P 500 gained 6.2%
and the Nasdaq rose 6%. For the month so far, the Dow is up 10.1%,
the S&P is up 11% and the Nasdaq adds 12.2%.
The S&P 500, which investing professionals use as the
benchmark of the broad market, scored its best 14-day gains since
July 1938.
But some of the stock market's reactions on Friday led some to
believe that the rally might be long in the tooth ahead of the
first-quarter earnings reporting season.
"Back in February and early March, we had a number of banks
coming out with upbeat quarterly results and forecasts, and that
helped spark the rally," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of U.S.
equities at Deutsche Bank.
"But even if it got a bit better in March, overall industrial
activity has remained weak and that will translate into weak
earnings and companies taking down their forecasts," he added.
"This will throw a little bit of cold water on this rally."
For instance, Accenture Ltd. (ACN), the consulting and
outsourcing firm, warned about its outlook for the rest of the year
on Thursday.
Of particular interest next week will be quarterly results from
BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) on Thursday after
the close. That same day will also bring results from Micron
Technology Inc. (MU), Monsanto Co. (MON) and Rite Aid Corp.
(RAD)
On the brighter side for financials stocks, Fitzpatrick pointed
out, Congress will hear comments on proposals for banks to suspend
mark-to-market accounting, which would allow them to stop writing
off all their toxic assets.
Economy
Data will come in play next week after some signs of improvement
in the housing market raised hope for the economy. Key will be the
S&P/Case Shiller index of home prices for January, due out
Tuesday, followed by the Chicago manufacturing and
consumer-confidence surveys for March.
Wednesday will bring the national manufacturing survey for March
from the Institute of Supply Management, along with pending home
sales and a private-sector survey of employment.
Friday will bring the ISM's service-sector survey and the
all-important March employment report.
G20
Finance ministers and central bankers from the G20, which
includes 19 of the world's largest economies and the European
Union, are due to meet April 2 to address ways to tackle the global
financial and economic crisis.
While not officially on the agenda, some underlying tensions
about trade and currencies might come to the fore. The governor of
China's central bank on Monday called for a new global reserve
currency to replace the dollar.
"There are hurdles," said Johnson of Johnson Illington Advisors,
"not just with the economic numbers and earnings reports next week,
but also with the rhetoric on currencies. There are tensions
starting to build over some underlying trade issues."
Tensions over currency and trade were a fixture of U.S.-Chinese
relations over the past few years. The United States, along with
other countries, has accused Beijing of keeping the yuan
artificially low to boost its exports.
Meanwhile, China, the largest buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds, also
expressed concern earlier this month about the safety of its
investments. The massive amounts of U.S. debt issued have pressured
bond prices and also threatened the strength of the dollar, which
could further reduce the value of holding Treasurys.
Now, the Federal Reserve is actively buying Treasury as part of
its $300 billion program announced last week, to further bring down
borrowing costs and boost the economy.