bowonwing
15 years ago
Not really. After IDM disappointment, I changed gears and mainly looking at larger cap stocks. However, I do have one, and only one.
SATC @ $1.92 ($1.08-2.57)
"SatCon Technology (SATC) is a leading supplier of inverters for large scale Photovoltaic and Wind farms. The company is not currently profitable, although analysts currently expect profitability in 2010. Between then and now, Satcon needed to find the money to fund at least another year of operating cash losses, which amounted to $10M in 2008. On July 3, the company raised $25M in additional preferred and common equity capital, which is enough to give the company a comfortable cushion." See SeekingAlpha article at SATC Yahoo.
Earnings: 2009 -$0.50; 2010 $0.06. Has 32 FPE right now, so pricey at current price. One of the institutional investors I follow is Essex and they added +2,773% of this in Q2-2009 and holds 230K shrs, worth $430K. Q2-09 low was $1.70, so pull back to $1.70 may be buying opportunity. But a lot of unknowns here, be careful. See www.nasdaq.com for current ownership.
I was looking at CRY, but did not know the FDA approval for patch was coming (about two weeks ago) and it exploded +40%.
Looking at DAL @ about $6.60, SYMC @ $15.25 and SPWRA @ $27.
DAL: Janus added 2,291%, +$233M in Q2-09 and holds 34.6M shrs, $243M. I have a buy on this <$6. Q2 low was $5.50. Sell target $12.
SYMC: Q2 low was <$15, near that price. A lot of institutional investors I follow added in Q2 or in Q1-09. A lot of negativity swirling around this stock right now (MFE). Sell target $21.
SPWRA: Q1 low $21, if stock gets anywhere that and I still have some cash free, I am buying. Look at projected growth. Many more buyers in Q2 than sellers.
Still DAL is #one at anything <$6. I believe economy is rocky and oil will stay <$80 a barrel, >$60. See oil chart $WTIC.
bowonwing
15 years ago
BMY will have to wait 1 year for PIII trial results. Amazing! IDMI had an EU approved drug and sold for $67M; MEDX sold for $2.1B and a year wait!
Why Bristol Myers is Paying the Biggest Pharma Premium of 2009
By Michael Corkery
In the world of biotech M&A, it’s not about the science. It’s about the gamble.
Consider the case of Medarex Inc., a maker of a promising a cancer drug. On Wednesday Bristol Myers Squibb Co. agreed to pay a 90% premium for the Princeton, N.J.-based Medarex, whose main products are drugs infectious diseases.
Bristol’s $16-per-share offer is way above Medarex’s 52-week high of $10.09-share set back in August 2008. According to Dealogic, the bid also represents the biggest premium for a sizable health-care deal this year — some 90% to where the stock closed on Wednesday
So when we will Bristol shareholders know whether they got a good deal or not?
They’ll have to check back in about a year or so. That’s when Medarex will receive data from Phase Three trials for its melanoma and prostate cancer drug, Ipilimumab. Those trials, which are one step before the FDA reviews the drug, will determine how safe and effective the drug is and how quickly it can be brought to market.
Bristol, which has been partnering with Medarex in developing Ipilimumab, presumably has some solid insight into the drug’s prospects, given the price it’s paying. In recent months, analysts have pointed to some good signs such as the fact that Ipilimumab was highlighted in the annual report of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, featuring patient testimonials following dramatic positive responses to the drug.
Bristol, which was advised by JP Morgan, is hoping it can catch a bounce like that at Human Genome Sciences.
On July 20, HGSI announced Phase three trial results on a new lupus drug, which would the first drug of its kind approved in 50 years. The company’s stock nearly quadrupled in one day, rising to $12.51 from $3.52.
For Medarex shareholders, the deal is all about hedging. Yes, it may miss some of the upside should those trials be a success. But it also protects against a bad result, by collecting that 90% premium from Bristol.
For now, Medarex shareholders can count their winnings, while Bristol’s chips are still on the table and the dice have yet to land.
bowonwing
15 years ago
BMY $2.4B for MEDX= IDM @ $94.00 a share. I know, I have to let this go, still??? I wish I knew why IDM sold for only about $68M market cap @ $2.64 a share.
Bristol's Cancer Bet
Robert Langreth, 07.23.09, 05:26 PM EDT
Cancer immunotherapy has mostly been a failure so far. With its $2.4B purchase of Medarex, the company wagers it has found a winner.
Attempts to spur the immune system to kill tumors have mostly failed in trials. Now Bristol-Myers Squibb is betting billions that it can make immune-targeting therapies finally work against cancer.
Its $2.4 billion cash acquisition of the biotech firm Medarex ( MEDX - news - people), announced late Wednesday, represents a giant gamble that immunotherapy will become the next big thing in cancer treatment. Medarex's lead drug, ipilimumab, now in a final-stage trial for advanced melanoma, doesn't target tumors directly at all. Instead it works by removing the brakes on the immune system so it can attack and kill the tumor.
In recent years, evidence has built that the immune system can sometimes attack and kill cancer cells--sometimes--but that cancer finds ways to fight back and evade or blunt the attack. (See "Cancer Miracles") For some people with advanced cancer, ipilimumab may be just enough to trigger a full-fledged anti-tumor attack. Bristol-Myers Squibb ( BMY - news - people ) has been collaborating with Medarex for years but now will get full rights to the drug.
"We wouldn't be betting $2.4 billion in cash unless we were optimistic" it would work, said Bristol-Myers Chief Executive James Cornelius in a conference call. "This will not be a cure-all for all types of cancer" but it could be "complementary to therapies that are out there today." Medarex has other cancer immunotherapies in earlier stages of testing, as well as drugs targeting lupus, rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease.
Bristol's buy is a risky move because numerous treatments and vaccines that aim to stimulate the body against cancer have mostly failed. One of the few that has worked so far is an experimental prostate cancer vaccine from Dendreon ( DNDN - news - people ) that recently had good trial results. The immune system is one of the more complicated parts of the body and doctors are only beginning to understand its intricacies. Another immune-boosting therapy against cancer, the natural immune system protein interleukin-2, has been limited by severe side effects.
Most trials of ipilimumab to date have been in advanced melanoma, where a small percentage of patients have experienced spectacular long-lasting remissions, even as the drug appears to do relatively little for the majority. Why more patients don't respond is a subject of intense research at laboratories worldwide. Some patients get autoimmune side-effects.
A Pfizer ( PFE - news - people ) drug similar to ipilimumab failed to improve survival in a large final-stage trial in melanoma. Bristol hopes to get better results in its final-stage trial by combining ipilimumab with chemotherapy and using a more intensive dosing regimen. Bristol and Medarex also have ipilimumab trials ongoing in prostate and lung cancer.
Results from the melanoma trial are expected next year and nobody quite knows what will happen. "Only the results of the large phase III study will be able to tell what is the role of this combination. We all hope it works, but there are obvious reservations," says melanoma expert Antoni Ribas at UCLA, who helped test the Pfizer drug. One worry, he said, is that chemotherapy may counteract ipilimumab by killing the new immune cells it helps activate.
Other companies working on immune therapies against cancer include GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK - news - people ) and Sanofi Aventis.
One reason why Bristol did the deal: With prices for cancer drugs in the stratosphere, even a modest success in trials could lead to billions in sales. Getting in early could allow huge rewards if the approach pays off. Also, if it had waited for successful trial results, the price for Medarex would have gone up like crazy.
Matthew Herper contributed to this story.
bowonwing
15 years ago
Hi Mexi, hope u get your $ soon. Watching GENX (near 5 year low) and BIIB.
Following another example of IDM @ $2.64 a share???? $66M market cap? @#*!
Bristol-Myers to buy Medarex for $16 a share cash
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY 20.53, +0.24, +1.18%) has signed a deal to buy biopharmaceutical firm Medarex Inc. (MEDX 15.98, +7.58, +90.24%) for $16.00 per share in cash, almost double their Wednesday close, resulting in an aggregate purchase price of about $2.4 billion, the two companies said in a statement late Wednesday. Medarex's projected $300 million in net cash and marketable securities at the close of the deal would knock the final price down to $2.1 billion. Among the properties acquired in the merger is ipilimumab, a novel immunotherapy currently in Phase III development for the treatment of metastatic melanoma, which Bristol-Myers said could be "an important contributor to [its] future growth." The tender for the shares will begin on or about July 27, with the deal expected to close 30 days later, pending regulatory approval. Shares of Bristol-Myers closed up 0.9% at $20.29 Wendesday, while those of Medarex were up 1.45% at $8.40. The announcement comes one day before Bristol-Myers is slated to announce its financial results for the second quarter.
bowonwing
15 years ago
OT: Frank Rich in the Sunday New York Times notes that Wall Streeters have put a big one over on the confused American people. He compares Madoff's thievery to the much bigger robbery pulled off by Wall Streeters. Writes Rich, "The estimated $65 billion involved in Madoff's flimflam is dwarfed by the more than $2.5 trillion paid so far by American taxpayers to bail out those masters of Wall Street's universe. AIG alone has already left us on the hook for $180 billion. It's hard for those who didn't have money with Madoff to get worked up about him when so many of the era's real culprits have slipped away scot-free. Already, some of these same players are up to similarly greedy shenanigans again, now that the coast seems to be clear.
"Washington had no choice but to ride to their rescue last fall to prevent an even greater systemic catastrophe. As the economist, Joseph Stiglitz wrote in this month's Vanity Fair, 'In the developing worlds, people look at Washington and see a system of government that allowed Wall Street to write self-serving rules which put at risk the entire global economy-- and then, when the day of reckoning came, turned to Wall Street to manage the recovery. They see continued re-distributions of wealth to the top of the pyramid, transparently at the expense of ordinary citizens....
"The Times reported on Thursday, the institutions that received the most bailout loot are often the biggest offenders. That would include the too-big-to-fail Citigroup, which has so far received $45 billion in taxpayers money, along with guarantees on $300 billion in toxic assets, to mitigate its reckless risk-taking during the reign of such obscenely rewarded (and now departed) executives as Charles Prince and Robert Rubin. While taxpayers will soon own some 34% of Citi, it is not only increasing our credit card interest rates (to nearly 30% in some cases) but raising its own base salaries (by 50%) to work around Washington's new restrictions on bonuses....
"What's uncontroversial and indisputable is that Goldman alumni have played key roles in both the Bush and Obama administrations' responses to the current crisis, even though Goldman has a big stake in the outcome. ... Goldman also rules at the New York Fed, a supposed monitor of Wall Street. Until May, the Fed's Chairman was serving simultaneously on the Goldman board. He resigned only after the Wall Street Journal reported that he was also still buying Goldman stock during his Fed tenure. At least the other failed watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Commission, has now cleaned house."
bowonwing
15 years ago
mex, td, tzm; TKPHY.pk Takeda.
IDMI did not work out for us, the "numbers" where there!, but not the right buyer.
Mex, you hit the nail on the head, good job, "they" did not think Mepact would generate the revenues. At least cancer patients will get access to Mepact et. al. in the future.
OT: EXH Exterran Holdings @$14.91 ($75.42-11.97 52 wk h/l). Natural gas compressor, oil and gas equipment, et. al. Our "friend" Hugo in Venezuela just nationalized EXH's compressors et. al. Seth Klarman- Baupost Group hedge fund- is into EXH. Seth has an amazing track record. See Seeking Alpha article under EXH on Yahoo. Also Primecap (Vanguard) is into this. Keep on eye on this one.
Best to you all and good luck. bow
TenaciousD
15 years ago
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited ("Takeda", TSE: 4502) today announced the completion of its acquisition of IDM Pharma, Inc. (“IDM”, NASDAQ: IDMI) for US$2.64 per share in cash, through a short-form merger of Jade Subsidiary Corporation (“Jade”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Takeda America Holdings, Inc., which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Takeda, into IDM. With the consummation of the merger, IDM has become a wholly owned subsidiary of Takeda America Holdings, Inc. This acquisition adds MEPACT® (mifamurtide), a novel therapy indicated for the treatment of osteosarcoma, to the Takeda oncology portfolio in Europe.
"With the closing of this acquisition, we look forward to launching MEPACT in Europe. This novel therapy, the first treatment approved for osteosarcoma in more than 20 years, has the potential to benefit patients in an area where new treatments are urgently needed,” said Erich Brunn, CEO of Takeda Pharmaceuticals Europe Limited.
IDM’s common stock will no longer trade on the NASDAQ Global Market. Detailed instructions will be mailed to former IDM stockholders who did not tender their shares in the tender offer that preceded the merger. These instructions will outline the steps to be taken by such former IDM stockholders to obtain the same US$2.64 per share as was paid in the tender offer. The price paid per share is subject to any required tax withholding and no interest will be paid thereon.
B
bowonwing
15 years ago
As I read it (2) is one of the conditions in which each of the remaining outstanding shares of IDM common stock ... will NOT be automatically cancelled and converted into the right to receive the same US$2.64 per share as was paid in the tender offer, but I am not really sure.
"Pursuant to the merger, each remaining outstanding share of IDM common stock ... will be automatically cancelled and converted into the right to receive the same US$2.64 per share as was paid in the tender offer ...
other than ...
2) any shares held by a holder who has not voted in favor of or
consented to the merger and
who has properly demanded and perfected his, her or its right to be paid the fair value of such shares in accordance with Delaware law"
So if the shareholder has "not voted in favor of" or "consented to the merger" and "properly demanded and perfected his, her or its right to be paid the fair value of such shares in accordance with Delaware law," his/her IDM shares will NOT be automatically converted and sold at the $2.64 price.
Yet I do not really know what (2) means is because I do not know what they mean by "who has properly demanded and perfected his, her or its right to be paid the fair value of such shares in accordance with Delaware law." Are they referring to par value of the common stock or the $2.64 offer price?
Interesting that according to the terms of the offer, it was not successful, i.e. they did not get over 90% of the stock, but looks like Takeda is doing everything they can to close the deal.
This is just my own opinion.
TenaciousD
15 years ago
OSAKA, Japan & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited ("Takeda", TSE: 4502) today announced the completion of the tender offer made through Jade Subsidiary Corporation (“Jade”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Takeda America Holdings, Inc., which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Takeda, for all of the outstanding shares of IDM Pharma, Inc. (“IDM”, NASDAQ: IDMI) common stock for US$2.64 per share. The offering period expired at midnight, New York City time, at the end of Monday, June 22, 2009.
According to the depositary for the offer, as of the expiration of the offering period, a total of approximately 21,842,929 shares of IDM common stock (including shares tendered under guaranteed delivery procedures) had been validly tendered pursuant to the tender offer and not properly withdrawn, representing approximately 86.4% of the outstanding shares of IDM. All shares that were validly tendered and not properly withdrawn have been accepted for purchase. Stockholders who validly tendered and did not properly withdraw their shares will promptly receive the tender offer price of US$2.64 per share, net to the seller in cash. The offer price paid or payable for shares tendered in the tender offer is subject to any required tax withholding, and no interest will be paid thereon.
Jade expects to exercise promptly the option granted to it in the merger agreement to purchase additional shares of IDM common stock at US$2.64 per share, which will result in Jade owning more than 90% of the outstanding shares of IDM common stock. Jade expects to acquire as soon as practicable all of the remaining outstanding shares of IDM common stock by means of a short-form merger under Delaware law. In the merger, Jade will merge with and into IDM, and IDM will become a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Takeda America Holdings, Inc. Pursuant to the merger, each remaining outstanding share of IDM common stock (other than (1) any shares held by IDM as treasury stock or owned by Takeda America Holdings, Inc., Jade or any subsidiary of IDM, Takeda America Holdings, Inc. or Jade and (2) any shares held by a holder who has not voted in favor of or consented to the merger and who has properly demanded and perfected his, her or its right to be paid the fair value of such shares in accordance with Delaware law) will be automatically cancelled and converted into the right to receive the same US$2.64 per share as was paid in the tender offer.
tzm
15 years ago
For those of you that like looking at highly speculative stocks, today I put on a position in ISTA. The usual disclaimers apply and I want to disclose that I've only scratched the surface when it comes to proper due diligence and so buyer beware. The stock is thinly traded and so patience is required but the FDA panel meeting is this Friday. A negative vote will have a very negative impact on this stock so don't get in over your head.
That being said, I really like the upside potential of this company. They focus on eye medicines and they have an FDA panel meeting this Friday for a drug called Bepreve (Bepotastine).
http://www.fda.gov/AdvisoryCommittees/Calendar/ucm164111.htm
The main reason why I like their chances is that the drug has been approved in Japan since 2000/2002. In Japan the drug is called Talion and according to my research, the drug did approx. 10.8 billion yen in sales in Japan in 2008. That converts to approx. 112 million US dollars. You should also note that Japan has a little less then half the population of the US and so potential sales could be double the Japan amount. Here's a nice article explaining the drug and it's chances.
http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=984181
And here's the earnings report from Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation (the rights owner in Japan); chart number 4 or page 19 shows the Talion sales numbers and projections. Growth in sales of Talion has also been strong. You can search the PDF for Talion to find the charts also.
http://www.mt-pharma.co.jp/e/ir/data/mtpc/2103/pdf/e2008_1stQ.pdf
You should also note that last September they did a financing deal for 65 million dollars and attached to that are 12.5 million warrants at 1.41. Therefore, the shares outstanding number is better analyzed by adding this 12.5 million shares to the shares outstanding number of 33 million for a total of 46 million shares outstanding. The market cap must be adjusted accordingly.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080930/ista8-k.html
Balance sheet looks decent thanks in large part to the recent financing (high long term debt though) and the company is forcast to do 100 million in sales this year so they do have other revenue streams, though one of their drugs is coming off patent in 2 or 3 years I believe. The stock hit a crazy low during the November market sell off so please keep in mind that there is a little bit of air beneath the stock price. They do have other interesting drugs in the pipeline as well.
And once again, this is a highly speculative stock so please treat it that way.
TenaciousD
15 years ago
There main defence is that MEPACT is a speculative play at best
“The projections did not include any estimates of the financial performance or expenses for MEPACT in the U.S. due to the substantial risks and uncertainties related to when, if ever, the Company might receive FDA approval for MEPACT. Additionally, and likely because of these substantial risks and uncertainties, the Company was informed by each of Takeda, Company B and Company A discussed above under “—Background of the Offer” that their final bids for the Company did not place any value on the U.S. market for MEPACT.”
Bow you hit it on the head, these guys are getting a steal of a deal but in this market I guess thats how the ball bounces these days. The numbers definitely show there is more than 2.64 worth of potential here BUT its obviously apparent they didn't turn down any offers for 5.00 a share from anyone else. Like my friends email stated, this gave us almost a dollar over close before the deal and the BOD gets all their bonuses.
D
bowonwing
15 years ago
IDM should have sold for $16.56 a share. Thank you for sharing this tzm. Filing looks like an attempt to show Walbert and B of D in "good faith" made the best deal the IDM shareholders, kind of a CYA. It does appear that one lawsuit was settled and another withdrawn, but apparently without prejudice, which means the plaintiff could re-file it.
If I am reading this document right, this is the first figures put forth projecting costs/revenue/EBITDA for Mepact in the EU. Their figures prove <$68M for IDM at $2.64 a share is a crime.
The est. for revenue from 2009 to 2013, five years is: $138M. Thus using x3 revs for next five years IDM should have sold for $414M; at 25M shares= $16.56 a share!
Furthermore what is amazing are the EBITDA est. in millions:
2009: $(23)
2010: (7)
2011: 7
2012: 28
2013: 33
2014: 35
2015: 37
2016: 41
2017: 43
2018: 45
2019: 49 it goes on but I am stopping here.
Thus projected EBITDA for next tens years in EU alone is: $288M!
From 2009 to 2013, five years is: $38M.
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