MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos speaks at Encuentro de
Economia event, organized by FundaciÃ(3) Internacional Olof Palme;
Germany GDP, Ifo Business Climate Index; trading updates from
Sberbank, Compass Group
Opening Call:
Stock futures were broadly higher. Asian stock benchmarks were
mostly lower; Treasury yields rose; the dollar weakened; while oil
futures were mixed and gold gained.
Equities:
European stock futures were broadly higher early Friday in muted
trading given the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday overnight and mild
gains in U.S. stock-index futures likely lending support.
Trading in the U.S. on Friday will be limited, with stock
markets closing at 1 p.m. ET and bond markets shutting an hour
later.
Survey data due Friday will offer a read on the health of the
U.S. manufacturing and services sectors, while early reports from
retailers about Black Friday traffic will also be in focus.
Meanwhile, flash estimate purchasing managers' data Thursday
showed that the eurozone's economy has likely slipped into a mild
recession, while the U.K. is performing slightly better.
The figures confirm views that the European Central Bank is
unlikely to raise rates any further.
Forex:
The dollar retreated early Friday.
Market volatility is typically low, given that the U.S. is
celebrating the Thanksgiving holiday, Matt Simpson, market analyst
at City Index and
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://forex.com__;!!F0Stn7g!DxA7heMfy5k0UIjWYzKqeb5AtlP8ndTcJ_zCqwUcbbmmbGWUIFDU4_6jnXcI3TMD0WZD-5qLG5mrUqI2oqYjGQk_R9Wvru8zEU2_8MtJbY0$
, said.
This has led to the usual tight ranges on low trading volumes,
Simpson said.
However, if the USD Index retains its seasonal tendency, it has
a greater probability of trading higher over the next two sessions
after Thanksgiving, Simpson added.
--
A U.S. recession could turn fortunes for the Japanese yen,
reinforcing its safe-haven status, Amundi Investment Institute
said.
"On the currency front the game changer is if there is a U.S.
recession which would see the Fed pivot and the yen display its
safe-haven nature, " Amundi said.
Bonds:
Treasury yields were higher early Friday.
The U.S. bond market will shut early for the Thanksgiving
holiday.
Global bond markets have repriced significantly over the past
two years because of the transition to the new era of higher rates,
leaving bond valuations now close to fair, Vanguard said.
Term premia--added compensation investors demand for holding
longer-dated debt rather than shorter-dated debt--have increased as
well, driven by elevated inflation and fiscal and monetary outlook
uncertainty, Vanguard said.
"Despite the potential for near-term volatility, we believe this
rise in interest rates is the single best economic and financial
development in 20 years for long-term investors," it said.
Energy:
Oil futures were mixed as investors remain unsettled following a
decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
and its allies to delay a much-anticipated meeting to Nov. 30.
UBS analysts said they expect the oil cartel will reach an
agreement on cuts at the meeting, but prices would stay volatile in
the near term.
Citi analysts expect Saudi Arabia will roll its 1 million barrel
per day voluntary cut through the first quarter of next year, and
the rest of the members will broadly agree to existing quotas
through 2024.
"Having said this, the likelihood of a bearish outcome from the
meeting appears to have risen given the meeting delay and potential
broader disagreements," they said.
Metals:
Gold ticked higher amid a weaker USD.
It also appears to have some more favorable U.S. economic data
on its side and a slightly less "combative" Fed, Oanda said.
However, HSBC sees only a 24% chance of the Fed cutting rates by
March, which would boost gold through dollar weakness but adds that
until those rate cuts come to fruition, it is unlikely gold will
rally.
--
Copper prices were lower. Prices were likely weighed by a jump
higher in LME inventories, Saxo Markets said.
The general risk-off sentiment is also underpinning amid a
sell-off in bonds and European PMIs still showing recession
concerns, it said.
--
Iron ore prices were lower after hitting a nine-month high
Thursday.
ANZ analysts said that although steel production curbs could be
reduced further, northern China is headed into winter which, along
with weak construction activity, could weaken steel demand.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Oil-and-Gas Companies Account for Only 1% of Clean-Energy
Investment Globally, IEA Says
As the world prepares to travel to the COP28 climate summit,
hosted by the United Arab Emirates, a new report warns that the
fossil-fuel industry isn't investing enough in decarbonization.
Despite earning average annual revenues of $3.5 trillion since
2018, oil-and-gas companies are spending just 2.5% of their
investment on clean energy, which is about 1% of the global
clean-energy spend, according to the International Energy Agency.
And 60% of that comes from just four companies out of thousands of
producers.
U.K. Consumer Confidence Rebounds Ahead of Key Holiday
Season
U.K. consumer confidence recovered in November, according to a
survey published Friday, fueling hopes of a rebound in spending as
the key festive shopping season draws near.
Confidence among British consumers rose six points to a level of
minus 24, reversing much of the previous month's drop, according to
an index compiled by consumer-research firm GfK.
Four Years, 30,000 Kids, Countless Bricks: Inside the Quest for
the Next Hit Lego Set
BILLUND, Denmark-In its quest for its next hit, Lego asked over
30,000 children for help.
It made giant posters of its ideas and led children on what it
called "gallery walks" to see what they thought. Sometimes, ideas
writers and artists had spent months on would get savaged.
Families of Hostages Held in Gaza Endure Agonizing Wait
TEL AVIV-Neta Heiman Mina awoke Wednesday morning to news that
Israel had reached a deal to release hostages held by Hamas,
bringing some small measure of relief and hope that her 84-year-old
mother might be among those freed.
By the evening, she was tempering her expectations as media
outlets started reporting that the deal might be delayed. A call
from a military liaison officer, who is assigned to give her
updates, confirmed her fear.
EU Helps Finland Secure Its Borders Amid Migrant Influx From
Russia
The European Union will help Finland bolster its borders
following a recent surge of migrants trying to enter the country
from Russia, whom Helsinki has accused of facilitating their
passage.
Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, said
Thursday it would send 50 border-guard officers and other staff,
along with equipment such as patrol cars, to bolster Finland's
border-control activities. The reinforcement, including
surveillance officers, support for registering migrants, document
experts and interpreters, was expected to be on the ground as soon
as next week, the agency said. Frontex currently has 10 officers
working at the Finnish borders, it said.
OpenAI Got Its CEO Back. What Happens Next?
Sam Altman is back at the helm of OpenAI, days after the board
abruptly ousted him. Almost everything else is still in flux.
The deal struck Tuesday night to restore Altman as CEO is a long
way from the ultimate goal he wanted to achieve heading into a
weekend of intense negotiations. He had lobbied for an entirely new
slate of directors-built on the ashes of the directors who fired
him-and wanted to rejoin the board again himself, according to
people familiar with the matter.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Friday
00:01/UK: Nov UK Consumer Confidence Survey
06:00/FIN: Oct PPI
07:00/GER: 3Q GDP - Detailed breakdown
07:00/SWE: Oct PPI
07:30/HUN: Oct Employment & unemployment
08:00/CZE: Nov Business cycle survey (consumer/business
confidence)
08:00/SPN: Oct PPI
09:00/GER: Nov Ifo Business Climate Index
09:00/POL: Oct Unemployment
09:00/ICE: Oct PPI
10:00/LUX: Sep Trade
11:00/IRL: Oct WPI
14:00/BEL: Nov Business Confidence Survey
15:59/UKR: Oct PPI
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 24, 2023 00:15 ET (05:15 GMT)
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