KeyCorp Reaffirmed at Neutral - Analyst Blog
March 27 2013 - 11:15AM
Zacks
On Mar 22, 2013, we reaffirmed our Neutral recommendation on
KeyCorp (KEY) based on its in-line results,
meaningful capital deployment actions and expense reduction
initiatives. However, pressure on net interest margin (NIM),
persisting slow economic recovery and a stringent regulatory
landscape remain the major causes of concern for this Zacks Rank #3
(Hold) stock.
Why the Neutral Stance?
KeyCorp’s fourth-quarter 2012 earnings were in line with the Zacks
Consensus Estimate and the year-ago earnings. Top-line growth,
continued improvement in credit quality and robust capital ratios
were the positives for the quarter. However, higher operating
expenses offset the positives.
Further, in the past 30 days, only a few estimates have moved up,
keeping the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2013 unchanged. Similarly,
estimates for 2014 have remained flat over the same period. In
addition, over the past 4 quarters, the company has delivered
average earnings surprise of 10.8%.
Recently, after receiving the Federal Reserve’s approval, KeyCorp
announced a $426 million share repurchase program, which will be
executed by Mar 2014. The company also plans to hike its quarterly
dividend by 10% from the present $0.05 per share starting the
second quarter. This makes KeyCorp a sound asset for yield-seeking
investors. In addition to controlling the rising expenses,
management at KeyCorp chalked out an expense reduction program with
an aim to rationalize the cost structure. The company intends to
reduce expenses by $150 – $200 million by the end of this year. It
also plans to reduce occupancy costs and consolidate nearly 5% of
its branch network.
Yet, pressure on NIM remains a primary concern for KeyCorp. Though
the company has been benefiting from improved funding costs and
better earning asset yield since the second half of 2009, we expect
the margin pressure to remain in place in the near term due to the
soft new loan demand. In addition, market dislocations over the
last couple of years have led to deterioration in the valuation of
many of the asset categories in KeyCorp’s balance sheet, thereby
lowering its ability to sell assets at acceptable prices.
Going forward, a slow economic recovery and stringent regulatory
landscape are likely to add to its woes.
Other Stocks to Consider
Stocks that are performing better than KeyCorp include
Citigroup Inc. (C), State Street
Corporation (STT) and BankUnited, Inc.
(BKU). All these stocks carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
BANKUNITED INC (BKU): Free Stock Analysis Report
CITIGROUP INC (C): Free Stock Analysis Report
KEYCORP NEW (KEY): Free Stock Analysis Report
STATE ST CORP (STT): Free Stock Analysis Report
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