Earnings Preview: KeyCorp - Analyst Blog
July 18 2011 - 8:30AM
Zacks
KeyCorp (KEY) is scheduled to report its second
quarter 2011 results before the opening bell on Tuesday, July 19.
The Zacks Consensus Estimates for the quarter is 20 cents per
share, representing a year-over-year growth of nearly 235%.
We expect KeyCorp’s business restructuring actions to continue
fueling its credit quality, capital position and liquidity,
although the company’s results are likely to be affected by the
volatile operating environment and added costs of complying with
the Basel III norms. Moreover, KeyCorp’s recent decision to raise
quarterly dividend will boost shareholder value.
Previous Quarter Performance
KeyCorp’s first quarter 2011 earnings of 27 cents per share were
substantially ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 15 cents.
Better-than-expected results primarily benefited from a growth in
non-interest income, lower non-interest expenses and an improvement
in provision from credit losses. However, lower net interest income
and average earning assets were among the negatives.
Additionally, KeyCorp repaid its outstanding $2.5 billion TARP
funds during the quarter, thus removing the extra financial burden
of preferred dividends that it used to pay to the U.S.
Treasury.
Net income from continuing operations for the reported quarter
excludes accelerated amortization of the discount on the
repurchased preferred shares from the U.S. Treasury of $49 million.
Considering this one-time charge, KeyCorp reported net income from
continuing operations of $184 million or 21 cents per share
compared with a net loss from continuing operations of $98 million
or 11 cents per share in the prior-year quarter.
Earnings Estimate Revisions – Overview
Prior to the results release, KeyCorp’s earnings estimate has
remained stable over the last 7 days.
We will now look into the details of the earnings estimate
revisions to substantiate why investors should be interested in
this stock.
Agreement of Analysts
Looking at the estimate revision trends, it is quite clear that
analysts are in agreement with the bullish second quarter earnings
outlook for KeyCorp. Of the 24 analysts covering the stock, 3 have
inched up their estimates for the second quarter over the last 7
days.
Moreover, for fiscal 2011, 1 out of the total 23 analysts has
increased estimate over the last 7 days. For 2012, 2 analysts out
of 25 analysts have increased their estimates over the last 7 days.
This indicates a modest upward pressure on the performance of the
stock in the near term.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter has remained
unchanged at 20 cents over the last 7 days. Similarly, for 2012,
estimate has remained stable at 76 cents per share. However,
estimate for 2011 has moved down from earnings per share of 78
cents to 77 cents.
The magnitude of estimate revisions explains why holding on to
the stock at the current level will be a good decision.
Earnings Surprise
KeyCorp’s performance has been stable over the trailing four
quarters with respect to earnings surprises. The average earnings
surprise was a positive 220.43%. This implies that the company has
beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate by the same magnitude over the
last four quarters.
By and Large
In May 2011, KeyCorp announced an increase in its quarterly
dividend from 1 cent per share to 3 cents. The company had last
hiked its quarterly dividend in December 2007 to 37.5 cents from
36.5 cents. However, owing to the financial crisis, the company had
to continuously lower its dividend. It was in April 2009, that the
company finally lowered it to 1 cent per share. The latest dividend
increase would definitely boost investors’ confidence in the
stock.
Furthermore, KeyCorp continues to gain market share through its
restructuring efforts. Over the last two years, the company opened
77 new branches and renovated approximately 145 other branches,
thus expanding KeyCorp’s branch network to 1,040 branches. The
company expects to open 27–32 new branches before 2011 end as part
of its long-term plan to modernize and strengthen its presence in
selected markets.
However, the pressure on net interest margin is a concern for
KeyCorp at this point. Though the company has started benefiting
from improved funding costs and better earning asset yields since
the second half of 2009, we expect margin pressure to remain in
place in the near term due to a soft new loan demand, resulting
from the sluggish economic recovery.
Conclusion
The estimate revision trends and the magnitude of revision
reflect a significant likelihood of upward pressure on the shares
over the near term.
KeyCorp currently retains its Zacks #3 Rank, which translates
into a short-term ‘Hold’ rating. Also, considering the company’s
business model and fundamentals, we have a long-term “Neutral”
recommendation on the stock.
Along with KeyCorp, Bank of America Corporation
(BAC), State Street Corp. (STT) and Bank
of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) are also slated to
report second quarter earnings on July 19.
BANK OF AMER CP (BAC): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANK OF NY MELL (BK): Free Stock Analysis Report
KEYCORP NEW (KEY): Free Stock Analysis Report
STATE ST CORP (STT): Free Stock Analysis Report
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