NEW
YORK, March 28, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow
Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for
the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of
U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2023 show that the trend of declining
home price gains continued across the
United States with declining prices reported in the
San Francisco, San Diego, Portland, and Seattle markets. More than 27 years of history
are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by
going to
www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA
Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.8%
annual gain in January, down from 5.6% in the previous month. The
10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.5%, down from 4.4%
in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.5%
year-over-year gain, down from 4.6% in the previous month.
Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta again reported the highest
year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in January. Miami led the way with a 13.8% year-over-year
price increase, followed by Tampa
in second with a 10.5% increase, and Atlanta in third with an 8.4% increase. All 20
cities reported lower prices in the year ending January 2023 versus the year ending December
2022.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
-0.5% month-over-month decrease in January, while the 10-City and
20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.5% and -0.6%,
respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
month-over-month decrease of -0.2%, while both the 10-City and
20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.4%.
In January, before seasonal adjustment, 19 cities reported
declines with only Miami reporting
an increase at 0.1%. After seasonal adjustment, 15 cities reported
declines while Miami, Boston, Charlotte, and Cleveland had slight increases.
ANALYSIS
"2023 began as 2022 had ended, with U.S. home prices falling for
the seventh consecutive month," says Craig
J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "The National
Composite declined by 0.5% in January, and now stands 5.1% below
its peak in June 2022. On a trailing
12-month basis, the National Composite is only 3.8% ahead of its
level in January 2022, a result also
reflected in our 10- and 20-City Composites (both +2.5%
year-over-year).
"January's market weakness was broadly based. Before seasonal
adjustment, 19 cities registered a decline; the seasonally adjusted
picture is a bit brighter, with only 15 cities declining. With or
without seasonal adjustment, most cities' January declines were
less severe than their December counterparts.
"Miami (+13.8% year-over-year)
was the best performing city in January, extending its winning
streak to six consecutive months. Tampa (+10.5%) and Atlanta (+8.4%) continued in second and third
place, with Charlotte (+8.1%) not
far behind. At the other end of the scale, one of the most
interesting aspects of January's report is the continued weakness
in home prices on the West Coast, as San
Diego and Portland joined
San Francisco and Seattle in negative year-over-year territory.
It's therefore unsurprising that the Southeast (+10.2%) continues
as the country's strongest region, while the West
(-1.5%) continues as the weakest.
"Financial news this month has been dominated by ructions in the
commercial banking industry, as some institutions' risk management
functions proved unequal to the rising level of interest rates.
Despite this, the Federal Reserve remains focused on its
inflation-reduction targets, which suggest that rates may remain
elevated in the near-term. Mortgage financing and the prospect of
economic weakness are therefore likely to remain a headwind for
housing prices for at least the next several months."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for
the three composites along with the current levels and percentage
changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
2006
Peak
|
2012
Trough
|
Current
|
Index
|
Level
|
Date
|
Level
|
Date
|
From Peak
(%)
|
Level
|
From Trough
(%)
|
From Peak
(%)
|
National
|
184.61
|
Jul-06
|
134.00
|
Feb-12
|
-27.4 %
|
292.71
|
118.4 %
|
58.6 %
|
20-City
|
206.52
|
Jul-06
|
134.07
|
Mar-12
|
-35.1 %
|
296.88
|
121.4 %
|
43.8 %
|
10-City
|
226.29
|
Jun-06
|
146.45
|
Mar-12
|
-35.3 %
|
309.07
|
111.0 %
|
36.6 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2 below summarizes the results for January 2023. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the
receipt of additional source data.
|
January
2023
|
January '23/December
'22
|
December/November
|
1-Year
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
Level
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Atlanta
|
226.06
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.7 %
|
8.4 %
|
Boston
|
297.76
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.9 %
|
4.2 %
|
Charlotte
|
250.17
|
-0.3 %
|
-1.0 %
|
8.1 %
|
Chicago
|
181.57
|
-0.5 %
|
-1.2 %
|
4.8 %
|
Cleveland
|
169.19
|
-0.6 %
|
-0.8 %
|
4.8 %
|
Dallas
|
281.67
|
-0.9 %
|
-1.1 %
|
5.0 %
|
Denver
|
300.71
|
-0.9 %
|
-1.3 %
|
1.0 %
|
Detroit
|
165.46
|
-0.6 %
|
-1.1 %
|
3.2 %
|
Las Vegas
|
269.82
|
-1.4 %
|
-1.9 %
|
0.4 %
|
Los Angeles
|
388.17
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.8 %
|
0.9 %
|
Miami
|
398.89
|
0.1 %
|
-0.3 %
|
13.8 %
|
Minneapolis
|
223.61
|
-0.9 %
|
-1.2 %
|
1.7 %
|
New York
|
269.93
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.3 %
|
5.2 %
|
Phoenix
|
307.49
|
-1.2 %
|
-1.9 %
|
0.0 %
|
Portland
|
312.92
|
-0.7 %
|
-1.9 %
|
-0.5 %
|
San Diego
|
378.87
|
-0.4 %
|
-1.3 %
|
-1.4 %
|
San
Francisco
|
326.55
|
-1.3 %
|
-1.8 %
|
-7.6 %
|
Seattle
|
346.64
|
-1.4 %
|
-1.8 %
|
-5.1 %
|
Tampa
|
364.29
|
-0.7 %
|
-1.0 %
|
10.5 %
|
Washington
|
295.02
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.4 %
|
2.4 %
|
Composite-10
|
309.07
|
-0.5 %
|
-0.8 %
|
2.5 %
|
Composite-20
|
296.88
|
-0.6 %
|
-0.9 %
|
2.5 %
|
U.S.
National
|
292.71
|
-0.5 %
|
-0.8 %
|
3.8 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
Data through January
2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the
seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data.
Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported
on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline
indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices
publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline
indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price
indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
|
January '23/December
'22 Change (%)
|
December/November
Change (%)
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
NSA
|
SA
|
NSA
|
SA
|
Atlanta
|
-0.3 %
|
0.0 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Boston
|
-0.3 %
|
0.3 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Charlotte
|
-0.3 %
|
0.2 %
|
-1.0 %
|
-0.4 %
|
Chicago
|
-0.5 %
|
0.0 %
|
-1.2 %
|
-0.4 %
|
Cleveland
|
-0.6 %
|
0.1 %
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Dallas
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.6 %
|
-1.1 %
|
-0.7 %
|
Denver
|
-0.9 %
|
-1.0 %
|
-1.3 %
|
-0.8 %
|
Detroit
|
-0.6 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-1.1 %
|
-0.4 %
|
Las Vegas
|
-1.4 %
|
-1.1 %
|
-1.9 %
|
-1.5 %
|
Los Angeles
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.4 %
|
Miami
|
0.1 %
|
0.1 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.1 %
|
Minneapolis
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.2 %
|
-1.2 %
|
-0.4 %
|
New York
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Phoenix
|
-1.2 %
|
-0.8 %
|
-1.9 %
|
-1.4 %
|
Portland
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.6 %
|
-1.9 %
|
-1.3 %
|
San Diego
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.6 %
|
-1.3 %
|
-0.7 %
|
San
Francisco
|
-1.3 %
|
-0.8 %
|
-1.8 %
|
-1.2 %
|
Seattle
|
-1.4 %
|
-1.5 %
|
-1.8 %
|
-1.2 %
|
Tampa
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-1.0 %
|
-0.7 %
|
Washington
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Composite-10
|
-0.5 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.4 %
|
Composite-20
|
-0.6 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.5 %
|
U.S.
National
|
-0.5 %
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.4 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
|
|
|
|
Data through January
2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please
visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.
ABOUT S&P DOW JONES
INDICES
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S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com,
delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts
across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting
residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in
the United States. Readers and
viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where
feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the
last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am
ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path
of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area
provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of
individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales
data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price
Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of
single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions
and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of
the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic
Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted
average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value
of 100 in January 2000; thus, for
example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50%
appreciation rate since January 2000
for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements
between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by
CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering
thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets.
The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just
a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are
trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or
subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by
S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on
indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are
sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic
nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in
interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of
investing in such products.
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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices