Red Robin Way Ahead of Estimates - Analyst Blog
February 21 2012 - 3:15AM
Zacks
Casual dining restaurant operator
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) reported
adjusted earnings of 28 cents per share in the fourth quarter of
2011, way ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 20 cents as well
as the year-ago quarter earnings of 13 cents per share. In fiscal
2011, adjusted earnings were $1.61 per share versus 71 cents in the
prior year.
However, including asset impairment
and restaurant closure costs, GAAP net income in the reported
quarter came in at $2.9 million or 20 cents per share. Results
benefited from the upside in revenue arising from comparable sales
growth and margin expansion. In full-fiscal 2011, GAAP earnings of
$1.36 per share outpaced the prior-year level of 47 cents per
share.
The company reported total revenue
of $206.0 million in the fourth quarter, up 7.0% year over year.
For full year 2011, revenue increased 5.9% to $914.9 million year
over year.
Quarter
Highlights
During the quarter, restaurant
sales leaped 7.0% from the year-ago quarter to $202.5 million and
franchise royalties and fees revenue crept up 1.0% to $3.1 million
on comparable sales growth.
Comparable restaurant sales jumped
4.8% year over year at company-owned restaurants in the reported
quarter, driven by a 5.6% increase in average guest check,
partially offset by a 0.8% dip in guest count.
Restaurant operating margin at
company-owned restaurants expanded 290 basis points (bps) to 19.9%,
due to a 230-bp drop in labor costs, 150-bp decline in other
operating costs and 10-bp fall in occupancy costs, partially
compensated by a 100-bp increase in food and beverage cost.
Selling, general and administrative
expenses in the quarter surged 21.0% year over year to $23.6
million, due to higher variable compensation costs and
increased infrastructure investments.
Financial
Aspects
Red Robin ended 2011 with cash and
cash equivalents of $35.0 million, total outstanding debt of $156.9
million and shareholders’ equity of $14.8 million. During the
quarter, the company repurchased 92,000 shares for $2.3
million.
Store Update
During the quarter, Red Robin
opened three full-size prototype restaurants, first small prototype
restaurant and one franchised restaurants. The company currently
operates 464 restaurants, out of which 327 are company owned and
the rest franchised.
Outlook
In 2012, Red Robin expects comps to
grow in the low-single-digit range and restaurant operating margin
to expand modestly year over year, benefiting from lower operating
costs and price increase, partially offset by higher commodity
cost.
Additionally, the company expects
cost of sale to increase 60 to 80 basis points in 2012 due to a
higher ground beef costs. Furthermore, labor expense is estimated
to jump 20-30 bps in 2012, riding on a number of accretive
initiatives taken in 2011 and a rise in minimum wages across a
number of states, particularly in the west.
In 2012, the casual dining
restaurant operator expects to open 13 to 15 new
restaurants.
Our Take
We expect estimates to move up in
the coming days, as the company’s Project RED initiative has
succeeded in generating improved comparable sales and margin
outlook. The Zacks Consensus Estimates for 2012 and 2013 stands at
$1.81 and $2.12, respectively.
However, we remain cautious on the
stock based on cost inflation, lower consumer spending and intense
competition from peers like Brinker International
inc. (EAT) and Domino's Pizza Inc.
(DPZ) with respect to
price, service, location and concept in order to drive traffic.
The company retains a Zacks #2
Rank, which translates into a short-term Buy rating. We also
have a long-term Neutral recommendation on the stock.
DOMINOS PIZZA (DPZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
BRINKER INTL (EAT): Free Stock Analysis Report
RED ROBIN GOURM (RRGB): Free Stock Analysis Report
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