Earnings Preview: Guess? Inc. - Analyst Blog
March 13 2012 - 5:45AM
Zacks
Guess? Inc. (GES),
one of the world’s leading designers and distributor of lifestyle
apparels, is scheduled to report its fourth quarter 2012 financial
results after the closing bell on March 14, 2012.
The current Zacks Consensus
Estimate for the quarter’s earnings is pegged at $1.05 a share and
$3.06 for fiscal year 2012. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects
revenues to come in at $778 million for the fourth quarter and
$2690 million for fiscal year 2012.
Third Quarter 2012
Recap
Guess? Inc., which faces stiff
competition from Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)
and Gap Inc. (GAP), posted third quarter 2012
adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 71 cents, which missed the
Zacks estimate by 2 cents. It also lagged the year-ago earnings of
75 cents by 5.3%.
Revenues in the quarter climbed
4.7% year over year to $642.8 million. In constant dollar terms,
net revenue went up 1.9% from the previous year.
Operating income grew 4.6% to $97.0
million, reflecting favorable currency, volume/mix gains and lower
overheads.
Operating Income margin remained
flat with the prior-year quarter at 15.1%. Product margin climbed
up owing to higher relative occupancy, distribution and selling
expenses.
Read The Whole Story at Guess?
Falls Shy, Revs Modestly Up
Management
Guidance
Based on the results posted in the
third quarter, the company estimated the fourth quarter diluted
earnings to be in the range of $1.03 to $1.09. For the fiscal 2012,
the company projects earnings in the range of $3.04 to $3.10 a
share and GAAP diluted earnings per share between $2.85 and
$2.91.
Third-Quarter 2012 Zacks
Consensus
Earnings estimates for the fourth
quarter of 2012, as provided by the analysts, range from a low of
$1.00 to a high of $1.09. Thus, the current Zacks Consensus
Estimate for the quarter is pegged at $1.05 per share, reflecting a
year-over-year decline of 5.4%.
Over the past 30 days, none of the
analysts have revised their earnings estimates. Hence, the Zacks
Consensus Estimate did not change. However, the estimate increased
by 1 penny over the last 60 days.
Earnings History: Ahead of
Zacks
With respect to earnings surprises,
Guess? topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the
preceding four quarters. Over the last four quarters, the earnings
surprise ranged from a negative of 2.74% to 25.00%, with the
average earnings surprise being 7.67%, suggesting that Guess? has
outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by that magnitude over
that period.
Recommendation
Stiff competition from numerous
manufacturers, importers and distributors; who boast a better
financial, distribution, advertising and marketing resources
concerns us.
Currently, we prefer to rate the
stock as Underperform. Guess? holds the Zacks #4 Rank, which
translates into a short-term 'Sell' rating.
ABERCROMBIE (ANF): Free Stock Analysis Report
GUESS INC (GES): Free Stock Analysis Report
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