Earnings Preview: Zumiez - Analyst Blog
November 30 2011 - 12:50PM
Zacks
Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) is scheduled to report
third-quarter 2011 financial results on December 1, 2011. The
current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter is earnings of 41
cents a share.
Second-Quarter 2011, Summary
Zumiez reported second-quarter earnings of 8 cents a share,
beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 5 cents a share. The
company also outpaced earnings of 2 cents a share posted in the
second quarter of fiscal 2010.
Net sales in the reported quarter increased 14.9% year over year
to $112.2 million from $97.7 million a year ago. Comparable store
sales rose 7.5% in the quarter compared with an increase of 9.3% in
second-quarter 2010. Total revenue missed the Zacks Consensus
Estimate of $152 million.
Management Guidance
For the third quarter of 2011, management expects comparable
store sales to increase in the low-single-digit range and net
income to come in the band of 37 cents to 39 cents per share.
Zacks Consensus
The analyst covered by Zacks expects Zumiez to post
third-quarter 2011 earnings of 41 cents a share, higher than the
prior-year quarter’s earnings of 40 cents. The current Zacks
Consensus Estimate ranges between earnings of 40 cents and 43 cents
a share.
For fiscal 2011, the Zacks Consensus Estimate stood at $1.08 per
share, substantially higher than the previous fiscal earnings of
$2.05. The current Zacks estimate ranges between $1.03 and $1.12 a
share.
Agreement of Estimate
For the third quarter of fiscal 2011, out of 18 analysts
covering the stock, 2 have revised their estimates upward, while
none have revised in the opposite direction in the last 30 days.
For fiscal 2011, out of 18 analysts, 2 analysts have positively
revised the estimate while 1 moved downward in the last 30
days.
Among the 18 analysts covering the stock, no estimate revisions
were witnessed for the last 7 days. Estimates for fiscal 2011
likewise witnessed no movement in either direction in the past one
week.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
The Zacks Consensus Estimate remains constant at 41 cents per
share for third-quarter 2011 despite a positive revision in
estimates by analysts over the last 30 days. The consensus estimate
for fiscal 2011 has also remained constant at $1.08 per share.
Surprise History
With respect to earnings surprises, Zumiez showed a favorable
trend in the last four quarters. The company has recorded positive
surprises in the trailing four quarters with a low of 4.3% and a
high of 200%. On average, the earnings surprise was a positive
68.1%. Based on the current flow, we expect the company to bring
healthy results in the upcoming quarter.
Our View
Currently, Zumiez maintains a Zacks #2 Rank, which translates
into a short-term Buy rating. Our long-term recommendation on the
stock remains Neutral.
Zumiez is a mall-based specialty retailer of action-sports
related apparel, footwear, equipment and accessories. The company’s
strategy is based on offering action-sports merchandise focused on
young men and women in the age of group of 12 to 24 years, enabling
the company to carve a distinct niche for itself.
Furthermore, the company’s stores are strategically located in
busy areas of the mall, such as food courts, movie theatres and
music/game stores, which are generally frequented by the company’s
target customers.
Moreover, the company is currently in the early phase of its
store expansion program and plans to enlarge its network by opening
45 new stores during fiscal 2011, including its first store in
Canada.
On the flip side, the company operates in a highly fragmented
specialty retail sector and faces intense competition from larger
teenage-focused retailers, such as Abercrombie & Fitch
Co. (ANF) and Aeropostale Inc. (ARO).
Furthermore, Zumiez also competes with large-format sporting goods
stores, such as Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. (BGFV)
and Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS) as well as
local snowboard and skate shops.
Being in such a competitive industry, Zumiez may find it
difficult to execute new business strategies, which in turn, may
impact its operations adversely.
ABERCROMBIE (ANF): Free Stock Analysis Report
AEROPOSTALE INC (ARO): Free Stock Analysis Report
BIG 5 SPORTING (BGFV): Free Stock Analysis Report
DICKS SPRTG GDS (DKS): Free Stock Analysis Report
ZUMIEZ INC (ZUMZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
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