OncoJock
4 days ago
FWIW, here's my theory on why new deals are being delayed.
As I mentioned in a previous post, a letter to the editor in Barron's a few weeks ago said that CMS is going to come out with more detailed regulations this fall regarding the ground rules for the next round of drug price negotiations. These new regs will spell out, among other things, whether developing a new, subcutaneous version of a blockbuster drug previously administered IV is a big enough change to justify resetting the clock and effectively postponing the day of reckoning when a Big Pharma will have to negotiate prices with Medicare for one of its best-selling products. As I recall, Merck is betting on this scenario by investing many millions in a subQ version of its blockbuster pembrolizumab (Keytruda).
If the letter writer is correct, and Helen believes the regulations coming out this fall will strengthen her hand in negotiating royalties, then it may be in her interest to wait until after the updated regs are issued to finalize a deal. If she is right, they will strengthen her hand in negotiating higher/richer royalties of maybe in the low double digits. If she is wrong, then her fallback position would be the mid-single digit percentage royalty deals she's been negotiating with partners all along.
These are multi-year royalty deals we're talking about, with big implications for revenue over an extended period, so it may be in Halo's best interest to wait, especially if Helen thinks the new regs will strengthen her negotiating position.
-- OJ
biotechinvestor1
4 days ago
I concur with this post from another board regarding JPM’s rating earlier today:
“Not only this analyst is a joke, but the investors following him are unable to read by themselves: EPS grows by 40% this year, 20% next year, 25% in 2026 and 2027.
PE is 16, ROE is 150%! EV/S seems high at 10. But the revenue has high gross margin (70%) as half is made out of royalties (higher percentage next years). This is a typical Warren Buffett stock, although the visibility is limited until 2028 now.
The development risk with this pharma is very low as it uses a better modality to deliver pre-existing blockbusters. It is difficult to find something as boring as this with high growth and low risk. This is shooting fish in a barrel, per Charlie Munger.”
biotechinvestor1
4 days ago
Here is why while you are right about Helen’s inability to deliver new deals (2023-2024 so far), you are wrong about the direction of the share-price.
Page 14 on
https://s28.q4cdn.com/284259014/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/HALO-2Q24-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-FINAL-004.pdf
EVEN WITHOUT A SINGLE NEW DEAL, the top and bottom lines are projected to grow over 20% per year until at least 2028. Also, despite the recent run up, halo is still trading at a forward (2024) PE of around 16 and PEG of 0.6
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo/price-earnings-peg-ratios
Halozyme is a great bargain and will be trading much higher over time even without new deals and despite the current management shortcoming.
If we get new deals or a new CEO, it would be icing on the cake.
maumar
4 days ago
It’s hard to fathom what is going on with Helen. If I remember correctly, she started promising 3 new deals in early’23!!! It’s kind of risky for a CEO to lie. Is she delusional? What serious potential partners would spend 10-12 months “discussing” a simple licensing deal? I find it absurd. And what about the board? Can’t they see the horrible stock performance? We are barely 20% up from Feb ‘21 in spite of Darzalex Faspro’s tremendous growth. Are they all happy to rest on their laurels, bury their heads in the sand, and cash in their stock options? How long has it been since we had a Chief Medical Officer? Do they really believe that they have no competition, “they are the only game in town”, “everyone else is really early”?
Someone should let them know that stocks are about the future. I am not sure what else Alteogen has in the pipeline but SC Keytruda has not been approved, and yet their market cap is almost 14 billion dollars. The stock is up over 350% from a year ago, 3,390% from 5 years ago.
easycomeandgo
4 days ago
A predictable yawner… I encourage you to buy, “hand-over-fist” this “juicy bargain”. Enjoy yourself now, Bubba, at least as far as my account goes, the days of joy are numbered. Just as I said, I am outa here come late October. I will be very pleased to flash such a bullish sign for you, and lick my wounds in misery.
easycomeandgo
4 days ago
I did not have any idea about how any outfit was going to rate HALO stock, but this is about what I feared in terms of outlook when I lamented that the majority of my remaining position would not go long term until October. Since then, I have sold what I could, 25% of my position had gone long term. No regrets about selling. I know that the issuer of permabear shareholder ratings (such delightful wit) is going to now savor the moment and declare even more dire insights into the minds of fellow shareholders. I continue to believe, without knocking HALO, that better investment avenues exist at this moment. Not bearish, just not bullish. There does exist a neutral avenue.
maumar
4 days ago
JPM: “ Despite raising our price target to reflect more value for future product royalties, we struggle to find a strong upside case from current levels that does not rely on giving even more credit. With the stock now at $62/sh, we are moving to the sidelines and lowering our rating to reflect HALO trading at a level we see as fully valued. What could get us more constructive from here? 1) the announcement of partnership(s) with attractive economics, ideally from large biopharma companies that reinforce the long-term value of the Enhanze platform and 2) more visibility into the performance of Wave 4 and Wave 5 products. Our recent conversations with the company suggest that there are up to 20 open slots across existing partners that have yet to be nominated for development, and that HALO is in “broad-based” discussions with pharma and biotech companies for new deals. We believe the bigger the partner, the more it will reinforce the value of HALO’s platform as we edge closer to the Enhanze LOE. Bigger picture, with HALO stock blowing past even our updated, higher valuation, we struggle with the case for further upside relative to other stocks in our coverage and would revisit this based on changes in the story and/or stock price.”
OncoJock
2 weeks ago
FDA approves atezolizumab and hyaluronidase-tqjs for subcutaneous injection
On September 12, 2024, the Food and Drug Administration approved atezolizumab and hyaluronidase-tqjs (Tecentriq Hybreza, Genentech, Inc.) for subcutaneous injection for all the adult indications as the intravenous formulation of atezolizumab (Tecentriq, Genentech, Inc.), including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), small cell lung cancer (SCLC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), melanoma, and alveolar soft part sarcoma (ASPS). See the prescribing information for the specific indications.
Source: usfda@public.govdelivery.com
-- OJ
biotechinvestor1
2 weeks ago
Page 5 of Halo’s most recent Halozyme slide deck (see link below)
Upcoming Potential
Approvals
• Ocrelizumab SC (U.S.),
September 13, 2024
• Atezolizumab SC (U.S.),
September 15, 2024
• Nivolumab SC (U.S.)
December 29, 2024
But I’m not seeing Atezolizumab SC (U.S.) on FDA’s PDUFA date calendar!?
Does anyone else see it?
https://s28.q4cdn.com/284259014/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/HALO-2Q24-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-FINAL-004.pdf
stockrafter
2 weeks ago
Ok great, I am convinced, a company with a billion dollar product has no competition, no other company has any interest now and never will, cool. And Merck are fools for wasting time and money on a worthless product, idiots.
Go HALOoooooooo up please.......with no competition in the future, it is clear sailing up.
P.S. Nice Housnlab pipeline chart Howeeme, wish that the no competition company HALO would have a helpful informative pipeline an investor could quickly look to determine what is it they are working on. Guess they are to busy counting their money and not looking behind for the non-existing competition.
stockrafter
3 weeks ago
Sorry, some of the comments are a bit confusing, not sure what some are trying state.
In any case, I see them as competition and will continue following the progress being made.
Patent filings by both Alteogen and Merck, along with clinical trials, shows Merck is making progress on Hybrozyme (ALT-B4, MK-5180). Merck is actually carrying the heavy load, while Alteogen reaps benefits.
IMO, Merck is pushing thru with the MK-5180 because in the long run it will be significantly cheaper then dealing with HALO. They will also have control of the product and will be cheaply expanding it into other products, making their products more competitive.
https://www.oncologypipeline.com/apexonco/mercks-subq-keytruda-headscratcher
Coded MK-3475A, co-formulation with Alteogen's MK-5180 (rh hyaluronidase)
https://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2024/0150467.html
COMPOSITIONS AND METHODS FOR TREATING CANCER WITH SUBCUTANEOUS ADMINISTRATION OF ANTI-PD1 ANTIBODIES
https://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2024091417A1.html
HUMAN HYALURONIDASE 1 MUTANTS
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06504394
A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Coformulated With Hyaluronidase (MK-3475A) in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma (rrcHL) or Relapsed or Refractory Primary Mediastinal Large B-cell Lymphoma (rrPMBCL)(MK-3475A-F65)
PaladinConqueror59
3 weeks ago
It's very easy to buy both stocks!
nowadays, many Koreans buy a US stocks instead of Korean stocks.
well, i think it just 'TIME' view
Until just a few years ago, SC injection did not get noticed in the market.
Merck needed a means to defend the patent expiration, They realized that the IV to SC change was the answer.
But, Halo was already under contract with BMS(PD-1 exclusive), so they found alteogen
In Korea, there lots of reports of this.
Alteogen has found a way to evade ENHAZE's patents, which it has been granted registration permission by the PCT and U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, and they are bolstering the patent chain to prevent the entry of competitors other than Halo and Alteogen.