Global Stocks Steady; Treasury Yield Hits Record Low
July 01 2016 - 9:23AM
Dow Jones News
By Riva Gold
Global stocks were steady at the start of the third quarter
while government bond yields touched record lows amid expectations
that central banks would remain supportive following the U.K.'s
vote to exit the European Union.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell to 1.385% during
European morning trade, briefly breaking below its previous
intraday record of 1.389% hit on July 24, 2012, according to
TradeWeb. 10-year U.K. gilt yields touched a new low of 0.783% as
investors continued to shift their expectations for interest
rates.
All of Swiss government debt is currently negative-yielding,
according to data from Tradeweb. Yields move inversely to
prices.
The demand for safe government debt underscores nervousness
among investors despite the recent recovery in stock markets.
Particularly in the U.K. and across Europe, many investors say
longer-term Brexit-related risks remain, including weakness in
European banks. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index is still down over
3% from before the U.K. vote.
Futures markets pointed to a flat open for the S&P 500 ahead
of a long weekend, following its steepest three-day rally since
February.
The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.9% as the auto sector jumped,
building on the pan-European index's largest three-day percentage
gain since November 2011. London's export-oriented FTSE 100 index,
whose revenues are largely derived from outside the U.K., rose
1.2%, on track for its best week since 2010.
"Most countries are going on business as usual," said Peter
Marber, head of emerging markets at Boston-based fund Loomis Sayles
& Co. "People have already begun to forget about Brexit," he
said.
Markets had sold off sharply Friday and Monday in the immediate
aftermath of the referendum result, triggering the greatest week of
equity outflows since August, according to Bank of America Merrill
Lynch. But many stocks have rebounded sharply since Tuesday amid
hopes that central banks around the world would help shore up
liquidity and keep monetary policy loose.
Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney signaled Thursday that further
interest-rate cuts will be needed after the Brexit vote, while news
reports that the European Central Bank was considering a change to
its bond-purchase program helped support prices on Spanish and
Italian bonds.
London's FTSE 250, which is geared toward the U.K. economy, has
felt more of the pressure, amid concerns the Brexit vote will
trigger a period of lower business investment and consumption that
could hinder growth.
"It's way too early to assume simply because equity markets have
rebounded somewhat that there's nothing to worry about," said Abi
Oladimeji, chief strategist at Thomas Miller Investment in London.
The epicenter of the fallout will be in the U.K. and Europe, he
said, which are likely to face the greatest economic, financial
markets and political repercussions.
The U.K. must now select a new prime minister, while
negotiations with the EU are expected to begin in the coming
months.
S&P Global Ratings cut the investment-grade credit rating of
the European Union on Thursday, saying the U.K.'s vote reduces its
budget flexibility and reflects a loss of political solidarity. The
ECB's top economist warned Friday that a Brexit could reverse
recent improvements in the euro-area economy.
The U.S. holds a presidential election in the fall, leaving no
shortage of political events to drive markets.
Heading into the second half of the year, "it seems quite
obvious to me that political risk will dominate for a while
longer," Mr. Oladimeji said.
In currencies, the pound was down 0.3% against the dollar at
$1.3307. The euro gained 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1132, while
the dollar fell 0.5% against the yen to Yen102.6430.
Asian markets largely advanced as a strong close on Wall Street
and in Europe rippled overseas. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average added
0.7%, while shares in Australia added 0.3%.
Stocks in Shanghai inched up just 0.1% after two gauges of
Chinese manufacturing activity weakened Friday, suggesting
second-quarter growth may be slower than the first. Still, the
services sector improved, reassuring some investors about the
health of the world's second-largest economy. Markets in Hong Kong
were closed.
In commodities, gold gained 1.2% to $1,336 an ounce. Brent crude
oil fell 0.1% to $49.64 a barrel.
--Christopher Whittall, Tom Fairless and Tess Stynes contributed
to this article
Write to Riva Gold at riva.gold@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 01, 2016 09:08 ET (13:08 GMT)
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