Wolters Kluwer: 48 of 49 Economists Surveyed Expect Interest Rate Cuts Before End of the Year
July 17 2024 - 9:02AM
Business Wire
Blue Chip Economic Indicators also shows
economists don’t expect U.S. national elections to impact timing of
rate cuts
Wolters Kluwer has published the July 2024 issue of its Blue
Chip Economic Indicators survey, which finds all but one of the
panel’s leading economists anticipating a Fed rate cut before the
end of 2024. The forecast arrives amidst signs that the economy and
inflation are both slowing as the labor market moves into better
balance.
Since 1976, Blue Chip Economic Indicators has offered reliable
monthly forecasts sourced from an expert panel of economists that
are employed by some of America's largest and most respected
manufacturers, banks, and insurance companies.
Highlights include:
- Most economists (55%) anticipate that the first Fed rate cut
will take place at the September FOMC meeting, down from 64% in the
June survey. Another 23% expect the first cut in November and 20%
in December, both up from last month.
- A vast majority of economists (77%) don’t expect that the
timing of the Fed’s rate decisions will be influenced by the U.S.
national elections in November.
- The consensus forecast calls for PCE inflation to slow further
in Q3 before hovering around 2.1% and 2.2% over the rest of the
forecast period. This would place it just slightly above the Fed’s
2% target.
- Economists forecast only a slight increase in the unemployment
rate as GDP slows to below trend. The consensus looks for the
quarterly average to rise to 4.1% by year’s end and then to 4.2% in
the first three quarters of 2025.
Each month’s Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights the
predictions of each individual panel member as well as a consensus
– or average – forecast for the direction of variables such as real
gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index and the
unemployment rate.
For more information about Wolters Kluwer, please visit:
www.wolterskluwer.com.
About Wolters Kluwer
Wolters Kluwer (EURONEXT: WKL) is a global leader in
information, software solutions and services for professionals in
healthcare; tax and accounting; financial and corporate compliance;
legal and regulatory; corporate performance and ESG. We help our
customers make critical decisions every day by providing expert
solutions that combine deep domain knowledge with technology and
services.
Wolters Kluwer reported 2023 annual revenues of €5.6 billion.
The group serves customers in over 180 countries, maintains
operations in over 40 countries, and employs approximately 21,400
people worldwide. The company is headquartered in Alphen aan den
Rijn, the Netherlands.
For more information, visit www.wolterskluwer.com, follow us on
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MEDIA CONTACT: Frank Ready
Manager, External Communications Legal & Regulatory Wolters
Kluwer Office: 717-205-3647 Email:
Frank.Ready@wolterskluwer.com